What do we think of Boog?
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What do we think of Boog?
after page 3 he has about 2 posts, one to lynch warpe, one to lynch you. He's also been on both bandwagons and if he were a wolf, he'd probably be quiet considering how he was soulread last time (granted he lived for a good 13 pages after lolol).Quote:
Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla
id be happy to switch from IA to him.
There are quite a few people who have been quieter than normal, including Boog and Penney. I am also not particularly buying CBC's "I don't have a clue" arguement. If he is THAT clueless at this point it may not hurt to get rid of him.
And rilla's acting like rilla. Granted, either one of us could be levelling hard but I know I'm not and if rilla's got me fooled then good for him for playing so well.Quote:
Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla
Stacks, I don't know how you can say we're acting in a suspicious manner. We're stirring up shit to flush out the wolves like we usually do when we're villagers. I did it in my souldread game when I was the Angel b/c I was invulnerable once I had the village on my side and I do it as a villager b/c it generates information and I'm not averse to dying if it leads to a village team win. This game plays entirely different if you don't mind sacrificing yourself to generate clues.
I agree with you.. It's a team game, and should be played that way. Also, you're right. I don't know how you played your previous games, so I don't knwo what's standard behavior for you or Rilla, yet.Quote:
Originally Posted by Warpe
However, you still forgot that if the Alpha isn't recruiting you guys (the vets), then who is he recruiting and why? I laid out earlier in the thread that recruiting veterans is fairly +EV for the Alpha, on soooo many different levels. Rilla backed me up saying yes it is, and that's it's pretty standard for an Alpha to do that. However, since then, you and Rilla have done nothing but push votes away from the vets, back to some of the new players. Which as most would agree are not the top recruiting candidates.
So basically, I'm just wanting your perspective on this. If we are to believe you when you say you and rilla are likely not zombies, then what strategy is the Alpha using? Why has he deviated from the standard, possibly optimal, strategy of recruiting vets?
Because if you play the standard, possibly optimal strategy, it'd be the first thing we'd consider?
The theoretical basis for your wanting to lynch vets is sound, but in application I don't think it suits us. Becuase Warpe and spenda appear to be villagers. I don't know how to explain it any clearer.
didn't we kill bode and kingnat? Are they rookies?
it all depends on what level he's thinking on. if the village expects him to recruit vets, he won't. or will he? it's counter-productive for us to say what we think he'll do.Quote:
Originally Posted by XxStacksxX
Because bode and kingnat seem like pretty capable players to me and excellent, discrete choices for an alpha to pick.
I'd actually like to lynch Stax now. I'm wondering why he's coming after us with such zeal. He could be leveling me hard because I wouldn't think a werewolf would be this verbose, but I'm finding his last few posts to lack substance but maintain structure.
His suspicion seems really flimsy to me. I mean, we did end up picking too pretty good guesses, but he's furious that the village was allowed to be swayed from vets to noobs.
Well that's the thing.. The fact that vets on the side of the village is a huge problem for the Alpha, and something he obviously wants to avoid, picking vets "even" if they are suspicious is not a terrible strategy. As I stated earlier, for an Alpha, Plan A is for the vets to be recruited, while Plan B is for the vets to be dead. So recruiting a vet, to get his insight on the situation and allow the vet to derail BWs, and start new BWs away from the Alpha, is a very strong strategy. EVEN if the vets alrady have suspicion cast upon them, and are lynched soon.Quote:
Originally Posted by Warpe
I guess to me, I believe that the insight a vet can give if recruited, as well as the damage a vet can do when on the side of the village, is more than enough to recruit them. Even if they die soon after. And the benefit of recruiting a reg that might die soon, still outweighs recruiting a lesser player, as he will (1) Do less damage if left on the village, and (2) will benefit the Alpha less.
So, maybe I'm just crazy, but I don't see how recruiting vets isn't a very strong strategy, and nearly optimal under all circumstances. No, I am not certain one of you is a zombie, but I would be surprised if there wasn't a zombie amongst you (Warpe, Rilla, Spenda, BigRed).
ok, less flimsy. But not all alpha's think like you. I would have picked someone I know is really into the game and wants to win first. Like SDM from his first game would have been a great pick. He was clearly attentive and wanted to win. I would never pick spenda even though he'll be a pain for me across the aisle.
btw, low post count is a good default play for a lost village. it forces the wolves that are laying low to post more and potentially trip themselves up. if you're a villager, you shouldn't have a problem with posting b/c you're innocent, right? just sayin'
There was also one game where I refused to let the wolves kill gabe. It ended up being really fun trying to level him.
Optimal strategy would have been to try and kill him.
If you are a villager, then you are sorrily mistake, and you are off your A game. If you are a zombie, then I suppose well played.Quote:
Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla
I never said that Kingnat and Bode weren't solid lynches. If you remember, I was the one who started the Kingnat BW, and the votes kept following based on my logic. The same logic that I know you were applying to Bode. The logic is still sound, I won't disagree with you there.
And the only reason I'm attacking you and Warpe with such zeal is for the same reason you have 7 votes cast on you already. The strategy to recruit vets just seems to strong for the Alpha to pass up on, and you, Warpe, Spenda, Bigred, obviously fit that mold. Not to mention, as others have noticed as well, you two have made some suspicious statements. I have already admitted, "I" don't know if this is your standard game or not, but it still came off as wolfy to me.
To address my last few posts lacking substance... I had a specific question I wanted Warpe to address, and it was dodged when he responded to me. That's the reason for all of my multiple posts practically reiterating my previous statement.
If Stacks is a zombie, one of these four likely is as well.Quote:
Originally Posted by XxStacksxX
rescind spenda
lynch bigred
If you include bigred, why aren't we looking at him?
I get your zeal. You seem like a villager. Which today, imo, is me, Warpe, spenda, JKDS and you.
If you remember, I was happy to jump on a BigRed bandwagon earlier in the game when Warpe first go it going. It wasn't until later I rescinded my vote.
And the only reason I haven't been "after" BigRed is for the same reason I'm not gung-ho on lynching Spenda right now. You two are the vets that are very active. Throwing votes around, which to my inexperience seems like two individual without method to their madness. I won't say it's not good what you two are doing, because obviously you two are better than me. I'm just saying, if you want to convince us lesser WW players, then you need to explain your reasoning. Or else, us "silly villagers" will continue to level ourselves.
From y'alls perspective Rilla, Warpe, and JKDS are villagers at this time. Why is it to 7 people, and a few others that haven't posted yet today, or voted in other directions, are saying it's pretty likely you and Warpe are not villagers?
if you think I dodged your question you should reread my answer because you obviously didn't understand it.Quote:
Originally Posted by XxStacksxX
rilla and I have both explained at length why we are playing like we are playing.Quote:
Originally Posted by XxStacksxX
I've gotta be honest, if I was the alpha, Warpe and Rilla would be right fucking up there on my recruit list after today's performances. They've shown that they're -villagers or wolves- savvy enough to control the village and avoid being lynched after the Bode hanging, which unless I'm mistaken would've been enough to leave any normal instigator with a really itchy neck right about now.
Seems to me that being a wolf, doing something that "obviously a wolf would never do" is the easiest cover, and the one that both Warpe and Rilla are using. If they were on DoanDiggy's team a couple of days ago, they could've told him to do the write "wolve's den (is that what it's called?)" line, on the same principle.
Perhaps a bit far-fetched, but I've got nothing concrete right now and felt like weighing in.
This has been covered right? If the wolves are on the level that the experienced players think theyre on, then some of those 7 are wolves. the rest can be confused/inexperienced/or paranoid villagers.Quote:
Originally Posted by XxStacksxX
Its also possible that theyre all confused/inexperienced/paranoid, and that the wolves have yet to actually say anything today. I like lynching one of these 7 though as im fairly confident warpe, rilla and spenda are clear. Somewhat sure on yourself as well.
I like the game and I like to keep the game going. If it looks like we're deadlocked, I'll campaign for 2 days to get a lynch done. If I can get people to participate more, I'll do that. Loans to a better game, everytime. Like the anti-SDM. They're fun threads to read. I followed the games even when I was an admin and could never play again (I thought).
All me and warpe are doing is saying that "I kinda get who X is as a person, and they aren't acting suspicious." We've been posting around here for a long time. There's a level of familiarity.
I'm into keeping the game lively. I like to post, and it's a lot less stressful when you're not a wolf. Wolves literally have to consider everything they type. Every attitude behind every post.
So, yes, we'd make invaluable wolves, but we haven't been recruited yet. Can't help it.
Bored, maybe?Quote:
Originally Posted by JKDS
The lack of information in this type of WW game has really done a number on my overall attention level.
For this I apologize. Those of you I played with in the Cold War game know how active I tend to be when I'm a villager, and I just want to be clear that it's not my lack of villagerness that is causing my inactivity this time around.
That being said. I am willing to lynch any of the following players:
IA
CBC
rilla
Gator
Bigred
SDM
Stacks
Badgers
And oh yeah, please skip the whole "well if Penney is a wolf then he must have included one or two others in that list of his" BS.
The main problem with our village is that, of the 4 current wolves, probably 2 or 3 of them have said nothing or not much for the past day or two, blending in nicely with the "this game is not engaging me" crowd.
I really like a stacks or badgers lynch right now but will join any BW on the above-mentioned.
Vets, you can take this as an endorsement of your villagerhood for now if you so choose, even if I'm pretty sure at least one of spenda/rilla/warpe/JKDS is a wolf.
Wouldn't it be funny if later on we found out that those 4 were the wolves? tee hee.
Anyhow, let's get this started; lynch stacks.
One theory is that one of SDM and Penneywize is the alpha and recruited the other one on the first night because they are friends (and the alpha might be afraid that his friend would have a better read or accidentally see something that gave it away). That would explain them acting different this game and also not recruiting a vet on the first night.
The first two days there was a lot of talk about rilla, Warpe, spenda, etc. and that would probably lead them to recruit someone like flomo, XTR, JKDS, BigRed, or Gator on the 2nd and 3rd night.
I'm somewhat surprised that I wasn't recruited last night. There was some heat on me, but I was able to quell it pretty quickly. Also I guess that I probably seem like a riskier recruit than someone who has laid low.
Stacks would be such an awful recruit for the alpha to make because he played terrible last game, is already suspicious this game, might just get himself killed without wasting a conversion, and isn't a ton of help to either the village or the zombies (as compared to others). I will not be voting for Stacks, and I think focusing on some of those that I mentioned would be a much better choice. Think of yourself in the alpha's shoes, and tell me there isn't at least a zombie or two in the flomo, XTR, JKDS, bigred, Gator list.
Also, with 2 nights passing I'm sure the seer would have looked up rilla and/or Warpe by now, and would probably come out and tell us if we had a zombie on our hands.
Well, fuck me, I just reread this page and it appears we have a concensus that stacks is not a wolf, and upon reflecting very hard over the past 3 minutes I have decided that I will rescind stacks.
bigred's name is popping up a lot. I hate to cast a lynch vote because I wanna only vote once for affect. But he's looking like my top dog.
One cool thing about an alpha game is that once you get recruited, you're on the zombie side and have to instantly change your strategy. Try as you might, it will be impossible for you to post exactly the same as you would have if you had remained on the villager side. This gives the alpha a very good reason to recruit quieter but solid villagers to his side.
There's not a whole lot there, but I wonder if someone with better wolfdar than me is dedicated or bored enough to look at the posts from one day to the next of the players who would be recruits, seeing if there is any sudden-but-subtle shift in attitude or posting style. If no one else wants to/does it in the next couple hours, I will take a stab at it.
I tried and came up with bode yesterday. It's your turn today.
Not sure if I should be offended because you obviously feel I'm a retard, or flattered because you ended penney's BW on me pretty quickly.Quote:
Originally Posted by DoanDiggy
:) I don't think you're any more retarded than me. I guess offended/flattered is partly what I was going for, but hopefully not offended too badly. I was just poking fun.
Some players are easier to read than others. I have no idea how I would play as a wolf because I've never been one.
I really think badgers fits this profile today. He's been inactive, for apparently verifiable reasons, which to me just gives him a prime excuse to sit back and let the mayhem unfold without getting involved much.Quote:
Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla
If I were the alpha, badgers would have been my choice to recruit last night; given his overall silence, and, apparently, the endorsement of a few vets as to his being a villager.
This all makes him a huge priority to be recruited. Especially given that he can just come back and say "wha? you're lynching me for being inactive? but what about (insert names of 1/2 the entire village)? The fuck have they added to this discussion?"
imo we should take care of our badgers issue, and I happen to know a dachshund breeder who can help us with this.
Anyhow I'll let DD pull the trigger on this one but I think my reasoning is reasonably valid.
Nah I didn't see DD's post by the time I had started my rescind, so you can go on hating him.Quote:
Originally Posted by XxStacksxX
I can't understand the lack of heat that dawolfdiggy is getting. He's made the mistake over the wolves den and got away with it completely when the bandwagon got derailed for lack of information to the village.Quote:
Originally Posted by kiwiMark
doan diggy wrote:
If we hang him and he's shown to be a wolf then the heat should then instantly go onto all 5 names that DD mentioned then.Quote:
The only problem is that Warpe and rilla can both be zombies leveling us and using our trust to lynch a villager and improve the zombie ratio. I don't think many of you played the Valentine's WW that I was in, but gabe did the same thing and it turned out pretty gross. Hell, Warpe, rilla, and spenda could be the 3 zombies at this point laughing at us from the Wolves Den (is that what it's called?). I'd rather not lynch BigRed or Stacks for that reason.
pelion wrote:
DD's defence includedQuote:
lol its even capitalised.
Lynch DoanDiggy for the rookie mistake.
Quote:
It's pretty common knowledge that the forum is called the Wolves Den. At least search the WW threads that I have been a part of and make sure it's never been said before you just turbo-lynch me.
first you're saying you're not sure what the wolves den is called then your putting up evidence to show that you had seen the term before and therefore couldn't be a wolf.So why the initial pretense that you didn't know what it was called.Quote:
Also, in the last WW game (which I skimmed through before we started the Halloween WW), there were several references to the wolves den:
http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...17.html#942517
http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...6.html?#944096
http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...8.html?#944098
http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...0.html?#944120
To say that I would have never seen that term before (and base a turbo-lynch on it) is pretty silly.
warpe then puts
and the heat disappears. Now you are claiming that you managed to defuse the BW on you when actually it was Warpe's post that did it.....manipulating the village in exactly the same way that he and rilla have been over the last couple of days .Quote:
no snap lynches guys...cooool 'n' sloooow...
Warpe and Rilla also seem to be steering the village towards concentrating on which players are likely to have been converted. Who's this best for ??? the village need to take out the Alpha then track down his recruits , the wolves need to keep suspicion away from the alpha so that he can keep recruiting.
by lynching DD we can gain information who some of the early recruits could be if he shows up as a wolf(which i expect).Time to ignore rilla and warpe and for the middle ground to think about this without them trying to steer the conversation.
lynch dawolfdiggy
Keith is definitely acting like Keith...
However I am not convinced by your argument, after all, that info you posted is not even from this day, why crack that shit out now after we've already beaten it to death?
lynch badgers, fellas. It's "the right thing to do".
Like secession, if you happen to be an inbred Texan.
my "no snap lynches" post wasn't to derail, just to get people to think (and post). long days are always good for the village, Keith_MM, and snap lynches are bad. you've played enough to know that.
*makes note*
That was the whole basis of my argument with SDM. However, I also seem to remember in that argument that it was pointed out that trying to slow things down and getting more information were wolfy.A point I disagreed with in that thread , simply because I wanted some info to work off for my lookups in that WW.Quote:
Originally Posted by Warpe
penney wrote:
why target a potential recruit? That leaves alpha free to recruit again. Far better to go for somebody who was likely a wolf and made his mistake early on.Once the Alpha has been taken down then we can concentrate on who was likely to have been recuited.Quote:
If I were the alpha, badgers would have been my choice to recruit last night; given his overall silence, and, apparently, the endorsement of a few vets as to his being a villager.
Where exactly has it been beaten to death. Surely you remember your first WW where I pointed out a similar mistake made by OP early on and the BW got derailed and OP turned out to be a wolf in the endgame(seem to remember that you were the seer). I got talked off a wolf before and this time i'm going to keep pressing the case .Quote:
However I am not convinced by your argument, after all, that info you posted is not even from this day, why crack that shit out now after we've already beaten it to death?
That was the whole basis of my argument with SDM. However, I also seem to remember in that argument that it was pointed out that trying to slow things down and getting more information were wolfy.A point I disagreed with in that thread , simply because I wanted some info to work off for my lookups in that WW.Quote:
Originally Posted by Warpe
penney wrote:
why target a potential recruit? That leaves alpha free to recruit again. Far better to go for somebody who was likely a wolf and made his mistake early on.Once the Alpha has been taken down then we can concentrate on who was likely to have been recuited.Quote:
If I were the alpha, badgers would have been my choice to recruit last night; given his overall silence, and, apparently, the endorsement of a few vets as to his being a villager.
Where exactly has it been beaten to death. Surely you remember your first WW where I pointed out a similar mistake made by OP early on and the BW got derailed and OP turned out to be a wolf in the endgame(seem to remember that you were the seer). I got talked off a wolf before and this time i'm going to keep pressing the case .Quote:
However I am not convinced by your argument, after all, that info you posted is not even from this day, why crack that shit out now after we've already beaten it to death?
well, right now we have nothing. So getting a wolf buys us time and gives us info. Sure it's not the alpha wolf, but if we had any idea how to sniff out the alpha, I'd be all for following them.
What do we learn if we get DD? Are you saying he's a possible alpha, keith?
omg warpe lynching me, i did not see this coming
I'm still staying on rilla. The majority of times a bandwagon has been halted the guy turns out to be a werewolf. Villager argues against lynching him, wolves quickly agree and rescind...look for that pattern.
well, going home to reformat my HD/replace a vid card/throw my comp out the window. have fun guys.
I hope you guys take the time to go over this post even though it's long. In particular, make sure you read the stuff at the very end of it.
If you read the thread with the idea that Penney is the alpha (esp the first couple pages at 50 posts per page) it makes for interesting reading.
My list of suspicious players is:
Penneywize - At times he seems to be trying to nudge the village. See below
StillDeadMoney - An obvious recruit for Penney and a bit more subdued than last game
InstantAces (and?/)or dranger - IA is on a few players' radar while dranger is repeatedly suggesting IA for non-obvious reasons and not really suggesting anyone else. Maybe one of them is a wolf?
bigred - repeatedly suggests gator, rilla, and warpe without much of value. Seems like a solid, quiet recruit choice
WillburForce/TLR - mostly quiet and non-commital throughout. bigred-esque recruit choices
spenda - because he's spenda -- he's one of the better players, unlike Warpe and rilla he has avoided much suspicion so far, and it seems level-y/fun for the alpha to recruit him because of last game
flomo - not nearly as drunk or random as he has been in the past as a villager
Here are some interesting early posts by Penney:
Would make a lot of sense if he was planning to recruit SDM. Then again, it makes sense regardless since they're friends.Quote:
Originally Posted by Penneywize
Then he goes back and forth with Stacks a bit.
That was the 2nd-to-last post before Night 1 ended, about 1:15 before lolzzz' post. Weak timing tell?Quote:
Originally Posted by Penneywize
Quote:
Originally Posted by Penneywize
These two posts are awesome because they totally steer the village. It fits perfectly if he recruited spenda or SDM on the first night. Note that he didn't actually suggest a lynch, but a few posts later jumped on the first suggestion (JKDS, by BooG).Quote:
Originally Posted by Penneywize
This post just seems very.... I don't know, careful? to me. Also, if he's the alpha it seems to pave the way for him to recruit vets in the next couple of days ("I don't want to lynch a vet on day 2 and 3 and 4"? WTF? After he just gave solid reasoning for lynching one on day 1?)Quote:
Originally Posted by Penneywize
He had another uninteresting post that I'll skip, then this one:
This post seems uninteresting to me except for "you're way off, old man." and "But take my word for it, k?" I don't know if that really means anything, but it does stand out to me. I remember someone (last game?) saying that when someone tries to inject humor into their posts it can indicate a wolf.Quote:
Originally Posted by Penneywize
Day 2:
Seemingly pointless post. Makes a lot of sense if Penney and IA are both zombies?Quote:
Originally Posted by Penneywize
Wow, makes a lot of sense if IA is a zombie. It also instantly deflects a bandwagon from him onto someone that already has a bandwagon going. "I don't have any strong enough vibes..."? Seriously?Quote:
Originally Posted by Penneywize
"Hunches are for idiots imo." It's hilarious after he just said something about his "vibes" in his last post. Also, he seems to steer us towards a rilla lynch on day 3.Quote:
Originally Posted by Penneywize
He then went forever without posting before coming out with:
That is, he didn't see a need to post until there was some heat on he and SDM, which would obviously be bad if they're both friends. Otherwise the post seems to be that of a villager. If you read closely, though, he avoids really making any meaningful accusations or points. Maybe he's just trying hard to seem like a villager? It kind of seems like he's doing his best to give "fake" insight.Quote:
Originally Posted by Penneywize
Finally, two more posts after the lynch was sealed:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Penneywize
Would a villager have any reason to make the first post? The 2nd post is like, "GOGOGO night! I'm bored with this long day."Quote:
Originally Posted by Penneywize
On Day 3, SDM comes in with an insta-"lynch rilla" which totally makes sense if he's one of Penney's minions following through on his suggestion from the day before. Prior to this SDM was mostly just bandwagon-hopping, not starting them (at least I think so, I didn't look super-closely at SDM's posts).
His posting today confuses me a bit. He's kind of all over the place, but the thing that actually sticks out to me the most is that he's willing to accept the fact that I'm a villager without much resistance at all. He's even willing to follow my advice? I can understand rilla and JKDS and others trusting their wolfdar enough to be confident that I'm not a villager, but Penney doing it just seems to me like he has more information than your average villager.
In the end this is still something of a shot in the dark, but it's the best I could come up with. I'm interested in hearing opinions, but for now I'm pretty happy with a lynch Penneywize bandwagon.
^^ I thought penney was sort of wolfish but Iunno if I have a good wolfdar or not but after your post I think we should definately look at a penney lynch as a very viable option for today. If we get penney IS the alpha or just a regular wolf what's our play?
dawolfdiggy wrote[quote]
His posting today confuses me a bit. He's kind of all over the place, but the thing that actually sticks out to me the most is that he's willing to accept the fact that I'm a villager without much resistance at all. He's even willing to follow my advice? I can understand rilla and JKDS and others trusting their wolfdar enough to be confident that I'm not a villager, but Penney doing it just seems to me like he has more information than your average villager.
[quote]
freudian skip ????
@rilla ...... yep , I've been saying it all along , I think he's the alpha and if not , a wolf definately.
If penney is the alpha or just a regular wolf what's our play?***
Also if penney isn't the alpha or a wolf what's our play?
i'll give that another go
dawolfdiggy wrotefreudian slip ????Quote:
His posting today confuses me a bit. He's kind of all over the place, but the thing that actually sticks out to me the most is that he's willing to accept the fact that I'm a villager without much resistance at all. He's even willing to follow my advice? I can understand rilla and JKDS and others trusting their wolfdar enough to be confident that I'm not a villager, but Penney doing it just seems to me like he has more information than your average villager.
@rilla ...... yep , I've been saying it all along , I think he's the alpha and if not , a wolf definately.
Okay how about this, we lynch penny. If he is the alpha we shoot SDM(?) and if he isn't we shoot DD(?). Sounds like it thats simple to me right now.
Haha, whoops. Well played. I even reread my post a couple times because it was so long that I was sure to make grammatical errors (there were several before like 5 Preview-edit cycles). Obviously I meant to say "to be confident that I'm a villager".Quote:
Originally Posted by Keith_MM
Inherent in my post, Keith, is that I don't think you're good enough to realize that I'm a villager ;).
Meanwhile, in reply to Instant Aces, our play after lynching Penney (assuming he's the alpha) would be to go after SDM and you. Obviously your posts are a bit distressing since it would make little sense for you to be a zombie ready to hop on an alpha bandwagon :shock:. Do you have any insight into his "rare noob insight?" comment? :)
The only problem with my lynch Penney approach is that if he's not a zombie, it gets us nowhere. It also probably gets me killed, so it gets us worse than nowhere. But I don't have any better ideas.
Except (I'm seeing a new IA post as I'm Previewing my post) IA's latest suggestion seems like something a zombie could easily say if he knows Penney's role, hoping to steer the village a certain direction that would be beneficial to him. Or it could just be a villager who is agreeing with me and trying to find a coherent plan if we do lynch Penney. I'm just saying that in case I die, I don't think IA's comments exonerate him in any way.
you guys have no idea how badly i want to lynch IA after these last couple of posts.
my initial suspicion post was on page 3 when we had 2 wolves and Dawolfdiggy had posted that he was playing differently .Using DDs penney SDM theory DD wouldn't have been a wolf . Looking at the rules on page one unless we lynch alpha now alpha gets to recruit before Vig can shoot.
How about a variation on IA's suggestion. We lynch DD and if he's a wolf we shoot IA and if DD's a villager Vig shoots one of penney or SDM.
Where's TLR?Quote:
Originally Posted by TLR
lynch penneywize
I could lynch IA before penney, actually.Quote:
Originally Posted by JKDS
I'm pretty sure DD is a villager.Quote:
Originally Posted by Keith_MM
But in the scenario where DD is a wolf, you him and Warpe are having a sexy threesome, I think. My head hurts.Quote:
Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla
JKDS and Staxs are there too!
I now understand why rilla would request an angel protection. If he is a villager trying hard to win and was pretty sure that bode was a zombie, it would suck to then get recruited and have to switch teams after having success in the village. Also, it's just a fun level to get the wolves thinking twice about whether or not rilla is the angel or if he's protected.
Someone mentioned it before, but the angel protecting himself would be less than optimal, so he might as well protect a villager. If we could get some group of almost certain villagers we should have a good chance of winning.
Now, obviously the zombies won't recruit me because I post way too much and I'm all over the place. I'd probably give myself away after being converted; I sometimes post way too strongly with totally wrong ideas, and it would be hard to do that as a wolf. Also, Keith is a hellhound on my trail and as soon as he has something of substance to point to my bandwagon won't be far behind, so I'm totally a wasted recruit. This also means that I would be a bad lynch. But Keith, please stay after me and keep doubting me, otherwise the zombies might just decide to recruit me. What a great spot for me to be in :)!
Rilla seems like a villager who is trying hard to win, or a superzombie who is leveling (some of) us out of our minds. If he is not a zombie yet he might be the angel, or the angel might be protecting him, and anyways there's a lot of suspicion on him. That puts me, rilla, and the special roles squarely in the "definitely a villager" camp, at least for a few days.
There might be others who would be bad zombie recruits. I think it would be worthwhile as we wade through all the bullshit trying to find a zombie that we also make sure to keep tabs on who is almost certainly a villager.
So that's why you've suddenly become so active again, so that you could slip that gem in there, wolfy mcwolferson.Quote:
Now, obviously the zombies won't recruit me because I post way too much and I'm all over the place. I'd probably give myself away after being converted;
Sounds like a guy who's really excited about his pick. Reminds me of someone...
I totally agree with you. He could easily be the alpha ready to throw Penney under the bus (Penney->zombie, SDM->villager), or he could be any zombie who knows that both Penney and I aren't zombies (SDM->zombie?), so he's getting a 2-for-1 deal. I would be ready to switch to IA pretty quickly.Quote:
Originally Posted by JKDS
TLR, WillburForce, bigred, and CBC are all on my radar as quiet, solid players who would be smart zombie recruits at this juncture. If they're not yet, maybe they will be soon. Or maybe not because now we're talking about it.Quote:
Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla
Sexy indeed. Looking at it from your point of view, it would definitely be super-sick if rilla, Warpe, spenda (?), and I were the zombies.Quote:
Originally Posted by kiwiMark
But this is only my 2nd WW (in the first one I was also a regular villager (actually I was meeloche's lover) and we lost) if you don't count the pre-mulligan. Ask yourself if I'm capable of pulling off a massive level.
kiwimark is not in my group of confirmed villagers.
So here's the thing. I don't know if this quote is directed at me, and if it is I don't know who you're referring to. But despite all that, I'm still going to bust out this cutting retort:Quote:
Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla
What, you mean you, with Bode?
OHHHHHHH.
It was a gamble, but I'm kinda bored.
When I mentioned my sexy threesome I was more meaning to point out that I think rilla's opinion of you holds little weight, since if you're a wolf that incriminates him, too. I'm not actually trying to get you lynched (yet).Quote:
Originally Posted by DoanDiggy
I was trying my best! This just means I can trust DD really means what he's saying.Quote:
Originally Posted by kiwiMark
I'm pretty sure that "cutting retort" was exactly what he was referring to.Quote:
Originally Posted by kiwiMark
WOOT! praise the lord for corrupted video card drivers! I thought I'd be out of action for dayyyyys.
Why don't we just lynch penney or DD and go about my suggestion based on if one of them is a wolf. Lynching me would be another wasted day for the villagers and would put you way behind. If you all so confident I'm a wolf just get the seer to look me up and then you'll see I'm a villager.
Well that's why it was a gamble. But that when a witticism that sharp strikes you you're not just gonna pass it up, are you?Quote:
Originally Posted by DoanDiggy
Should we just switch to IA now or is there value on letting the Penney bandwagon gain some speed?Quote:
Originally Posted by Instant Aces
Regarding the italics part, isn't this sometimes the alpha just trying to buy one more recruit? Galapagos kept saying this in the Christmas WW, and when the seer finally looked him up he was the alpha. As a villager who is not contributing all that much, why should the seer waste a look on IA.
FWIW, I never asked the seer to look me up :)
So, if IA is a wolf, the vig is gonna shoot penney?
Well that's why it was a gamble. But that when a witticism that sharp strikes you you're not just gonna pass it up, are you?[/quote]Quote:
Originally Posted by kiwiMark
But a comeback isn't a comeback when it's coming back to the same thing he said, amirite?
Also:
...because I know that information on me is much less useful than information on someone else.Quote:
Originally Posted by DoanDiggy
Just to finish my thought. A villager shouldn't want to die, but we don't mind dying in the name of helping the village. Delaying your death just for the sake of staying alive while wasting a seer lookup on yourself (knowing with 100% certainty that you're a villager and the information will not help the village) is sub-optimal to say the least.
what sort of logic is this .....The seer looks you up and ....comes out reveals himself and says "oh yeah IA is a wolf/villager" or doesnt come out and you get converted if you're a villager wasting a lookup.either way its not good for the village .Alpha can quite easily sacrifice his zombies to identify the seer. much easier to lynch you .Quote:
Originally Posted by Instant Aces
Well I'd love to see penney or SDM post a defense before you go off and lynch me or you can snap lynch me and lose the game :)
At this point it looks very likely to me that IA is the alpha (more likely than Penney). Since the vig shoots after the alpha recruits, we should try to lynch the alpha.
I'm not sure that IA being a zombie = Penney being a zombie. It could mean that, but it doesn't have to. It's probably still a +EV shot (and therefore a good use of a vig bullet?).Quote:
Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla
Sorry to seem lazy (hopefully I don't since I already made a huge post and have been posting a lot), but would a good villager (Warpe? JKDS?) mind going through the thread with the assumption that IA is an alpha and seeing if that gives any insights?
This is a funny post, I like it :). But I don't know what it means.Quote:
Originally Posted by Instant Aces
So I'm a wolf now? heh. Someone want to give me the coles notes version of this, cuz I was away like 3 hours and now I'm being lynched and shot by the vig etc.
Wake up people, you're leveling yourselves entirely too much.
I read through some of the reasoning but didn't get a good feel as to why some of you are on my case (I only counted 2 votes though?) so feel free to fill me in.
DD's post kinda went and quoted a whole bunch of shit that was basically a laundry list of tenuous connections and invalid deductions that make my head hurt. I mean, really, the conclusions he is drawing there are universally bad. If any of you really need me to respond to any one of those, quote it and I will reply with why it's retarded.
One of the things I did notice is that he quoted me saying "hunches are for idiots" imo and then in another post I listed guys I had "vibes" for (or something to that effect).
Allow me to clarify - I define "hunches" as sentiments or inclinations with no justification. Everyone I have suggested to lynch, I have reasons for; whether I capitulate these reasons to you or not, does not affect their not being hunches.
As for Keith's criticism (?) of my play in the Cold War game - if I remember correctly, I was either the first or second to vote to lynch OP in the earlygoing, and yes, I was the seer, and the village won the game...
At any rate... Let's come up with a better pick for tonight guys; you can take this to the bank though: the people pushing suspicion in my direction are either misdirected villagers or wolves themselves.
Interesting note - no traction for my badgers choice - not even a second look at my logic - which, to be fair, is far from bullet-proof, but better than a good chunk of what I've seen so far.
Also - VIG - save your bullets for when we have a wolf hung; we can then use that more solid information to create a list of likely wolves, rather than the blind shooting you are about to embark upon.
Oh, and if IA is a villager, I think we should shoot (or lookup?) Penney anyways, because it goes back to the scenario where IA is just a villager trying to come up with a coherent plan, and my shot in the dark that Penney is the alpha is better than nothing.
The cliff notes:
I allowed myself to be convinced that rilla (and to a lesser extent, Warpe) are villagers. I then tried to reconcile how that could make sense, and my theory was that it would make sense if you or SDM was the alpha and decided to recruit the other with your first pick. I read through the thread under that assumption, and it brought me to the conclusion that you could be the alpha. I admitted, however, that it was a shot in the dark and was simply a consistent theory.
After my long post, IA basically self-destructed and created a series of posts that make him look like he's likely the alpha. If he's not, he sure is acting really weird.
To further clarify my point here... On the first day, both rilla and Warpe got mentioned as obvious wolf recruit choices. Furthermore on the second day in particular, both got lynching mentions, suspicions cast on them, potential angel protection thrown in, etc. If the alpha didn't recruit one of these two on the first night, they would be very unlikely to be recruited after that.Quote:
Originally Posted by DoanDiggy
Oh, and I forgot to do this like 3 times:
rescind Penneywize, lynch Instant Aces
For starters, I see no connection between myself and IA, and am not sure why his innocence / guilt has an inverse relationship with my innocence / guilt?Quote:
Originally Posted by DoanDiggy
On the SDM theory - you give me very little credit if you think that I'd actually recruit him if I were the alpha. Did you see how fast he got lynched in the last game? Maybe he'd recruit me, I could see that. Anyway - I did include him in my suspect / will-join-bandwagon list, so unless that's a noob wolf level, I really think he's lynchable.
IA was also on that list, so if you guys are gung-ho on lynching him, I'm all for it. I'm sticking with badgers for now, so don't get your panties in a bunch if I join the BW late.
As for all this "if 'X' turns out to be a wolf, then VIG SHOOT 'Y'!" business is entirely too premature, so ditch this plan asap imo.
Stock up your bullets for when we have some real info - like a hung wolf. Then we can play the old "look-up old posts and draw conclusions" game, with some degree of accuracy.
Get on with it then most fail lynch ever if you follow through with it.
"Stock up your bullet so they go to waste when I finally convert you mister vig". FYP Penney
lets start stringing up the quiet onesQuote:
Originally Posted by Warpe
I'm not staying at a Holiday Inn, but I did have a pretty big idea when I was in the shower.
Instant Aces is either the alpha and has been making horrible gaffs, or Instant Aces is a regular zombie who is intentionally deflecting suspicion from Penneywize to himself. If the zombies are familiar with WW, they know that IA's latest posts are extremely alpha-y, and at the same time he seems to be trying hard to get Penney lynched.
What does that mean? If IA is the alpha, Penney's chances of being a zombie are actually pretty low. Penney might be a good lookup, but that is a decision that I will leave to the Seer. The Angel should either protect himself, or if someone seems like a good player who is a villager but is highly-likely to be killed by the zombies (much more likely than you), protect that person. I don't know what the Vig should do, but I'm not entirely sure that Penney is a good one to shoot.
If IA is a normal zombie, then Penney is highly likely to be the alpha and is definitely worth a Vig shot. IA is making obvious mistakes and seems to have a hard-on for lynching Penney. Meanwhile, Penney is trying to distance himself from IA in his last couple posts. The plan could be to try to get Penney to stay alive for at least one more night and then convince the village that IA was trying to get Penney lynched. So yeah, in this scenario the Seer should create a list of players that he would have recruited as Penney (personally I think the quiet, solid players are the best, along with SDM) and start looking them up. The Angel has to soulread Penney. Specifically, if I was Penney:
Yeah, have fun with that :).Quote:
Originally Posted by Penneywize's hypothetical thought process
Meanwhile, I'm more and more happy with the choice of Instant Aces. Specifically he was not at all interested in lynching me after my controversial "Wolves Den" post, nor was he before my long post. Now he's suddenly saying that we should lynch/shoot me and Penney, while offering no explanation why I'm suspicious?
I'm going out for the night so good luck, Village! I have a really good feeling about where all this is going.
And WTF Warpe, you are tilting the fuck out of me. Did you get converted last night?
DoanDiggy could be writing "I'm a zombie tehehehehe you're all suckers" in the middle of all of these marathon posts and nobody would ever know.
No shit right, Penney or DD is definately the way to go 2nite or I'd be even up for 1 of the more quiet people but lynching me is a big mistake. Since penney and DD both have such a hard-on for lynching me they are either both zombies or 1 is just a naive villager and the other is a zombie. Regardless I'm still confident a penney lynch is the best way for the village to go right now but I'd be willing to hop on a DD bw.Quote:
Originally Posted by kiwiMark
Lynch Penneywize
Why is kM suddenly trying to throw suspicion on me? He seemed reluctant to lynch me immediately after my Wolves Den comment, even before I made an excuse. It doesn't really make sense to me for him to be a wolf or a villager, so I'm pretty tilted.
Anyways, I'm out for the night (and probably well into tomorrow). Have fun guys! And if for some reason you decide to lynch me before I get back, I hope you have a plan where you get something of value from it.
Yeah guys I'm out for the night too and also probably well into tomorrow since there's no work for any1 tomorrow and everyones gettin drunk 2nite. Maybe I'll show up and make a drunk post Iunno. Anyway DO NOT lynch me until I get to at least make another post. Lynching me within the next 16hrs or so will NOT benefit the village anymore then it will 24hrs from now so don't get too lynch happy just yet.
We're up to four zombies. If we don't nail the alpha soon, it will be game over.
Because of the importance of stopping the alpha, I think the vig should shoot whenever he can. Even if it's totally random, there is still a 1 in 20 chance that the alpha is hit tonight.
I'm going to rescind rilla for now. If the seer finds a zombie, they should definitely reveal themselves because at this early a stage, a zombie that is found while screening is far more likely to be an alpha than one found at a later stage (for obvious reasons).
Rescind Rilla
Lynch Instant Aces
....
So, we're all on the same page right?
DD, all I can say is, you're way off bra. I like that you're thinking, you're putting in a (hopefully) honest effort, but it's time to shift your suspicion elsewhere. You have gone off a tangent and basically lost your course entirely.
Think of it this way -- I would say that, hypothetically, any player, at any point in any WW game, could be applied the same type of scrutiny as you've applied to me; and in each case, you would be able to come up with a litany of 'suspicious' posts and semi-falsehoods in their reasoning etc.
I could do the same to you, but, right now, I am fairly convinced of your un-wolfitude. It's pretty clear that my efforts would be better spent elsewhere. And no, this is not an attempt to win you over.
Expand the scope of your reasoning. Instead of solely focusing on 'Penneywize as a zombie' , you should consider alternatives -- 'Penneywize as a villager', 'Penneywize as a special role', 'X as a zombie', 'X as a villager', etc. etc.
Look over past WWs; some of the most helpful analysis comes from the consideration of villagers as individuals within a group.
One final point. If you intentionally keep trying to "read between the lines" in other ppl's posts, you are going to find shit that isn't simply isn't there. Read what is written, then decide whether the poster was trying to tell you something - or avoid giving something away.
You realize I'm not that interested in you anymore, Penney? Meanwhile, IA is totally acting like a zombie, and yet you're not interested in that at all. That just makes things worse for you.
I 100% admitted that my post about you was a shot in the dark and it just-so-happened to be consistent. After that, IA's posts have been much more incriminating.
Honestly, your latest posts only make sense if you are the seer, looked up Instant Aces, and he turned out to be a villager. That's a lot of constraints, and I'm more willing to accept that IA is the alpha and go from there (note that I said if IA is the alpha, it's not at all clear that you are a zombie).
@DD: I pretty much post when I see the opportunity to make a lame joke, you're reading too much into my posts and getting too defensive, you huffing puffing wolf you.
Also, as an aside, saying something like "oh hey it looks like you could be the seer!" isn't really helping us. :/
I have been on IA since the beginning of this day. He was on my first list (first position even) and I have said I would probably join an IA bandwagon.Quote:
Originally Posted by DoanDiggy
At this point I'm going to wait until we get more voices in here; are we willing to lynch IA? Our discussion should center around him unless someone has anything compelling to say about other suspects.
'rilla / warpe / JKDS / GatorJH would be especially helpful
Kay this is a drunk post. Lynch fucking Penneywize it's so fucking obvious right now. If you don't lynch fucking Penneywize this is the most fucking retarded village ever by far.
Lynch IA you fucking Awolf, win the game and that's it however if the village has half a fucking brain they will lynch you(the obvious Awolf) and have a shot at winning the game. But w/e go for village lynch me see what happens and /cry after onoes you lynched another villager and threw away your only shot at winning. I'm done posting until you figure out what the fuck is up. Lynch me and fall another 2 votes behind on any day.Quote:
Originally Posted by Penneywize
ok, i've had a read through.
I can go with a IAces lynch.
so lynch IAces
if this ain't correct we gotta start looking at the likes of Warpe/rilla etc
Warpe, we can't just lynch the quiet ones because we need to get the alpha and two quiet ones are now active and fighting for their lives.