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No, I don't think it's relevantQuote:
Originally Posted by baudib
This is part of why I'm not convinced you're a wolf. I think you're a decent shot at being a wolf, but all this really could just be your quirks or are perhaps inexperience. When I first played I thought my Day 1 reads were far better than I do today. I think everybody's kinda like that
Post 163.
rescind wufwugy
Post 163 (sorry for double post)Quote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
No, I wouldn't have actuallyQuote:
Originally Posted by baudib
Compare the posts where Keith and Bikes talk about my vig strat. Keith is approaching it from a villager mindset, as in "how does this affect the village." Keith actually does this in his opening post in Night 0 where he is talking about villager strat.
I've already said that Keith is a great wolf so giving him villager cred when he could do this as a wolf may be dangerous. But the best way for me to read people is to get them to respond to me.
I bolded Bikes early because I got a funny vibe off him in Night 0. I can't even explain it and it wasn't even that much, like maybe pushing him from 20% wolf to 25% wolf. But I wanted to bold him to see what would happen.
Bikes has zero posts in this thread about relevant game information, just kind of "oh hai guise lala la where's pelion?" This isn't totally out of character as he doesn't take early days seriously. But then he does get serious to talk about the vig strat and his post is just all sorts of fail.
This is a fair point. I suspect I'll be wrong on quite a few things. It's the nature of being a villager.Quote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
How about you use your experience to find us some wolves?
So far Baudib and wuf are wolves. The interaction seems kinda weak and staged.
Here's what Baud may be doing: He thinks he's running things. He set up a vig post with the idea that if anybody gets excited about it in what he deems the wrong way, it means they're reacting because they're afraid of losing a no-content wolf to a shot. His behavior all game so far has been consistent with this, as he has said things about how he's pissing the wolves off and stuff. I had this exact same sort of optimism in all my early games. It's real easy to think that the wolves are reacting to your stuff, but more often than not they're just sitting back, watching people play pin the tail on the donkey. Most superficially wolfy behavior comes from villagers in the form of coincidences and stuffQuote:
Originally Posted by baudib
I think this wolf list is internally consistent, in ways that it would be tough for a wolf to do.
rescind baud lynch bigred
Ong is right about bugrud. He's been a thorn in my side due to this style several times. It's the same with lolzzz, but apparently he's going to get replaced or modkilled or something
I guess wuf is just ignoring me then. Brb in a few hours to see what's gone down in Gold Town.
Not sure I even want to go down the road of this discussion but do we consider the three who haven't posted in our d1 lynch strategy? Seems unlikely we'll find 3 replacements and 3 modkills if all villagers would be pretty horific. But worse, if there's say only one replacement yet one of those 3 is a wolf I'm guessing the wolf would get replaced.
MOD - ANY UPDATE WRT THIS?
These 10 are making Gold Town a fun place to be in for me:
a500lbgorilla -- Love your work, want to see more.
baudib -- Your strategy speaks to me.
bikes – Saying little now but sounds like a solid guy to keep around for now.
gabe – Inactive but sage, a keeper.
GatorJH – I’m from Florida, loves me some gator meat.
GrayFoxxxx – Hope to keep learning a lot from your battle with Baudib.
Keith – Well-balance commentary, keeping an eye on you though.
OngBonga – One word…Awesome
Rong – Gets right to the point; I like that.
Wufwugy – I have way too much to learn from him, keeper.
These 3 are probly gonna be replaced, so no point wasting a vote:
Credsfan03
lolzzz_321
SweetClaireRose
Thus:
bigred – Stumbled out of the blocks and has been silent since…LYNCH BIGRED
Yes I am. You didn't have much of an accusation. You basically said that me and Baud could be wolves together. Um, okay. That's my defense. OkayQuote:
Originally Posted by GrayFoxxxx
When I said that about you and Baud, it was predicated on if I was right about Baud, and that was kinda the end of it. It's not much of an accusation at this point
Keybored's making no enemies. Going with the flow.
I disagree with you here. I think this interaction is beginning to look more like villager - villager than I was thinking before. Before I thought it was wolf - villager, I just couldn't decide which way round. Wuf feels like a villager, there's a few things he's done to make me think so but I'm not getting into that just yet. buadib is a player I have a lot of repsect for after such a short time playing, he's amongst the best of the noobs I've seen in my time, comparing with the likes of gizmo. The fact I haven't got much experience playing with him makes him difficult to read, but he has given me a little cause for concern, again something I'll elaborate on later if it still applies. But his recent stuff, I dunno, I'm not so sure he'd play aggressive wolf again after playing that way as a replacement in the last game. I think he'd try to adjust, worried that the village will be paranoid of him. He seems to be playing freely. So I'm thinking both are villagers and the wolves are observing.Quote:
Originally Posted by GrayFoxxxx
keybored's post is all sorts of awakward. I think good chance he's a wolf but then again he could just be new, so let's see how he responds to having the finger pointed at him.
Don't like the people on the BigRed wagon.
Most of the stated reasons people want to lynch BigRed can also be applied to Bikes. Bikes doesn't participate much early and gets hard to read later. Bikes may be a better villager than BigRed, but he's been wolfy.
The thing with bigred is he does this every game. Bikes doesn't play all that often. It will be too easy for bigred to play wolf like this. Once d1 has passed, it becomes a lot harder to lynch people based purely on reputation, because now there's real info to work with. d1 is the only chance we get really to snaplynch bigred for the benefit of the game. The biggest wolf read I have is keybored, but I don't want to lynch a noob d1. I'd be well up for lynching lolz but he'll probably get replaced.
Also, rong, the mod has confirmed already that the inactives will be replaced in alphabetical order. I'd have preferred random.org, but w/e, alphabetical is acceptable.
Oh and I think rilla is a villager, based purely on his wuf rescind. Wuf dropped a teeny weeny villager tell in the post previous, I give wuf more of a villager lean, and rilla then rescinds. If anything it hints that rilla is thinking like me, so rilla can have a villager lean too.
This is why I suggested the vig take care of these types.
Oh and also bikes is a pretty bad wolf. I'm not intending to slap him down here, nor am I trying to brag, but I can read him. I have no idea how to read bigred, because all he does is post fluff early on. Bikes doesn't post fluff if you know what to look for in his posts.
I understand where you're coming from with this vig idea. But the fact is that the vig should play however he wants to. If the low content posters are annoying him, he can take a shot. If he has a read that he wants to follow up with, well he has the power. The vig will very likely pay little attention to your plan, and just do whatever he wants to. It's what I'd do.Quote:
Originally Posted by baudib
Bikes is always wolfy. Bikes rarely plays and sometimes brings stuff to the table. Bigred always plays yet never does anything. Go check out the DEADWOLF game on the 4v2 day. I had an impossibly hard time trying to get Bigred to pay the smallest amount of attentionQuote:
Originally Posted by baudib
To reiterate, I think it is absolutely true that if the endgame village is weak, the wolves will win. Even if low-content players are likely villagers, they have to be killed off so the village of the final days is made up of people who can get the right lynches done. The DEADWOLF game is a prime example of an endgame village slacking and losing because of it
I've sent PMs to those three... no replies. I've also solicited substitutes via PM from 8 members... so far no replies and no posts in the separate "Substitution" thread.Quote:
Originally Posted by rong
Given the lack of substitutes so far, I'm inclined to wait out inactives for another 24 hours. If we only find 1 sub, then alphabetical order takes priority over who gets switched out first.
My preferred actions regarding the inactive players are as follows:
No action (they become active soon) > substitutions > mass modkill (likely to take place during Day #2 cycle if still no activity + no subs available)
ok so lynching noobs is never cool on day 1. day 2 and 3 is a different story. let them at least experience the game a bit and then lynch them when we dont have a lot of good options. if they are wolves then they give themselves away anyway because noobiness. will post more after food. though i feel like this post shoulda been [meta]
It's just so easy for the wolves to talk about lynching inactives all day.
Yup, but it's the lesser of two evils imo. Imagine bigred is actually a wolf. Well that effectively clears me and wuf, because I wouldn't want to throw him under the bus because he could be a winner, and I'd expect the same thoughts from wuf. Wolves talking about lynching inactives all day isn't all that easy. Wolves won't actually do it so blatantly simply because they'll worry it makes them stand out. More likely is a wolf will sit back and let villagers dominate conversation.Quote:
Originally Posted by baudib
baudib, why haven't you accused me of being a wolf yet? I'm not playing my usual d1 game, and I started the bigred wagon which you dislike. But you haven't taken a swing for me yet. Earlier I noticed you were swinging for both wuf and dan, while telling us you think I'm a villager. I'll be honest, that really struck me as an attempt to manipulate me, buddying me up while attacking those who I usually attack in early game, and is the reason I had you leaning wolf in my reads post. You have good reason now to swing for me, but you seem reluctant. Maybe you're not playing as freely as I thought you were.
I don't see any evidence of you being a wolf yet.
Well for someone who has read all the last few games and knows more about my game than the average noob, this is very much alarming. When was the last time there were two people above me in the post count on d1? I was probably a wolf.Quote:
Originally Posted by baudib
To address your concerns, I'm playing freely but strategically.
One of the things I liked from an old thread, don't remember who said it... One of the best things villagers can do is show other villagers why they're villagers. I've been trying to do this as well as look for signs in others. How people respond to things I say gives me tons of info.
I suspected you would play more reserved this game coming in because you obviously take the game seriously and are probably tired of being mislynched.
The Night 0 stuff with Wufwugy...I felt that Ong and Keith were suspicious of stuff Wuf said for the same reasons I was. These things gave me strong villager lean on Ong and Keith. Keith's jousting with me also gave him a strong village lean IMO.
Getting mislynched when I'm not special is not something that bothers me all that much. My reserved play this game is actually more because I played so badly last game and basically annoyed everyone for no gain. Getting lynched was a relief. When I'm happy to be lynched, that tells me I need to change something or stop playing.Quote:
I suspected you would play more reserved this game coming in because you obviously take the game seriously and are probably tired of being mislynched.
Ong wolfin' obviously.
lolQuote:
Originally Posted by baudib
i like how i havent played a WW game in umm, many moons but baudib having read back through all the WW games has me pegged. I actually can't recall the last time i was a wolf but was told if i wanna play i gotta post more early game instead of lurking until day 5.
i dunno i am a pretty useless villager in the early game to about the middle mid game. because deciphering patterns and voting schemes doesn't come easy until you have something to work with. and the 'soulreading' people do on days 1 or 2 are usually a result of luck or someone made a massive mistake. tbh i think most everyone just posts noise until day 4ish but they way they vote is far more useful information when it comes down to it.
that being said people who claim to be able to insta spot wolves on day 1-2 are running good, suffer from dunning kruger or are gabe. gabe is in his own category of awesomeness
Lol wolf
I'm so glad that Bikes mentioned Gabe. Bikes makes it a habit of just going along with what Gabe says. It's often his reason for his lynch pick, "Trust in Gabe." Which isn't terrible as far as default villager strat but what if Gabe's a wolf? So this would probably be the first time in WW history that Bikes didn't like Gabe's idea.
Here, Bikes mentions the strat and piggybacks on Keith's argument and ignores Gabe's comments on it. Are you really suggesting that my idea makes it easier for the wolves to hide? Posting more makes the wolves harder to detect but the angel posting more somehow exposes himself to danger?
Quote:
Originally Posted by bikes
Wolves have to lie or obfuscate. They have to make wishy-washy no-content posts or post about rules and regulations or talk about their former glories as villagers in past games. The angel doesn't have to do that because he doesn't have to lie or make shit up.
Wufwugy - LDFO wolfBikes -- likely wolf
GrayFoxx -- meh less convinced but still could be wolf. Feel like Wuf has been trying to distance himself from GF a lot
Rong -- wolfy as usual.
Keybored -- Gave him slight village lean for his earnestness alone but wowzer that last post.Among the noobs, I still think GF is wolfier, hard to believe someone in the den wouldn't warn Keybored against making a post like that.
Gator -- always threat of being wolf, his status needs to be scrutinized later
Keith -- likely villager, hard to detect if wolf
OngBonga -- likely villager, if wolf there's no trouble getting an Ong wagon going. re-examine later
Gabe -- leaning village but would likely lean village if he were a wolf too
Rilla -- solidly village lean
SweetClaireRose -- null
Credsfan03 -- null
BigRed -- likes cat pics
lolzzz -- pretty much villager, based on Wuf's hard-on for him and Bikes subtly suggesting he could be up for a lolz wagon without actually bolding him (leaving no vote trail)
baudib -- village
BTW I regard even talking about what the angel should or shouldn't do to be pretty wolfy. villagers generally don't do it.
This doesn't strike me as particularly natural. How is GF wolfier than keybored? Why would someone in the den warn against a post like that? Do you expect that for keybored to be a wolf, his buddies are psychic and know what he's gonna post? If I were a wolf with keynored, I'd be telling him that post is awful, but it's done now. There's no warning him, the stuff experienced players say to noob wolves would be something along the lines of "don't go into meltdown if someone points the finger at you, and if you're unsure of anything, run it by us first". Experienced wolves can't stop noob wolves making dumb posts, they can just point out what's dumb about it so hopefully they improve.Quote:
Keybored -- Gave him slight village lean for his earnestness alone but wowzer that last post.Among the noobs, I still think GF is wolfier, hard to believe someone in the den wouldn't warn Keybored against making a post like that.
You seem to be very much "lolwolf" everytime you see something questionable. You call me a villager, see no reason to worry about me, then lolwolf me before towning me in your reads post while leaving the door open to easywagon me later. This does not come across as pro-village thinking.
You seem to know much about bikes' past, yet you're not pulling any quotes or links up to support your claims. hell, even I don't know if bikes sheeps gabe in early game, I know that's jyms' favourite early game tactic but not sure about bikes. You seem to have a better idea of how people play this game than people who have been playing for years. I can't help but be massively suspicious of this.
That reads list is extremely wolfy.
fair
Day #1 Cycle is being extended another 24 hours--meaning it will end at precisely 2:57am Eastern Time, Tuesday morning.
This decision is an attempt to give the inactive players (Credsfan03, lolzzz_321, SweetClaireRose) every opportunity possible to begin participating in the match and submit their lynch votes.
I have not received replies to the PMs I sent these three specifically requesting their participation in the thread as of yet.
post 387 from feds & drug smugglers, in gabe we trust. I think he's said it somewhere else but no idea where
http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...11#post2160511
It wasn't the end of it. I wanted you to explain why voting for him would make me wolf, but not you. You saying that isn't an accusation isn't correct. I guess I cant force an answer out of you.Quote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
The general town vibe is that Baudib is town, so I'll jump off of him for now. Still uneasy about it. Defending bigred gives him slight towny vibe, he could have just let a wagon build and not said a word.
Rescind Baud
Going with my next wolf pick
Vote Wuf
Keyboards post just looked like someone that doesn't want to be aggressive. I do not agree with the Bigred vote. Don't think we should discredit him for being inactive when there are 3 others in the same boat.
gorilla is just being observant no real reads on him
ong doesn't agree with my view on baudib and wuf being in a fake civil war. But ong correctly pegged me as a town. He also helped in my backing off of baud. So I'm thinking he is towny at this point.
Bikes, meh I cant really tell where he is after agreeing with Kieth initially. Some people think he is wolf. I havent got that feeling at all.
Ok baudib, granted you're reading up on old games and I accept your position on bikes.
I'd like you to run through your thought process of villager - wolf - villager regarding me. You say I'm obviously wolfing, then I'm a villager in your reads post when all I posted in between was "lol", so this evolution of reads needs some explaining.
Also rong has done a good job of staying out of the kitchen. Hasn't said anything susbstantial.
If you're a villager and I'm right about you, that doesn't make me villagery. If I'm a wolf I would know if you're a villager or not. All I'm saying is don't be so quick to town people who town you.Quote:
ong doesn't agree with my view on baudib and wuf being in a fake civil war. But ong correctly pegged me as a town. He also helped in my backing off of baud. So I'm thinking he is towny at this point.
I already did. I said that I thought he was calling you a wolf for really weak reasonsQuote:
Originally Posted by GrayFoxxxx
Other than that, I'm not particularly concerned because it takes a handful of people to make a lynch and nobody else with think it's a big deal. Most of us don't make a habit of defending against things that don't have much chance of sticking. If you do that, people start thinking you're a frightened wolf
don't read too much into it. you seem to be suspicious of me because i'm not suspicious of you. i guess i get where you're coming from but sorry, i don't think you're a wolf. ok?Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
Ong- so who is more wolfy? Wuf or Baud.
Could you see them BOTH being wolf or are you 100% they aren't a team?
rescind all votes, run a baud-wuf bandwagon. that should give the village the most information.
I think a wolf team of baudib and wuf is potentially very dangerous, as both will be active as hell in the den and would both want to sick it up. I'm not prepared to dismiss the idea altogether, there's a chance both are wolves.Quote:
Originally Posted by GrayFoxxxx
If I had to choose between one or the other for lynch today, I guess right now I'm leaning baudib, simply because he's making me more paranoid than wuf. So basically gut.
duel rather
I posted that before seeing his suggestion that we run a wuf-baud 1 vs 1
I'm not sure what to think now.
^Quote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
at minimum the thread will be a lot quieter. also if i'm wrong on Wuf and he gets lynched, surely I'll be gone tomorrow.
Ill take that advice.Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
You're in luck. Wolves don't do this. Not only is it hard to plan for, but it's a very weak thing to plan anywaysQuote:
Originally Posted by GrayFoxxxx
I think it is something that newbs will pick up on though. So good job at showing how you're a villager
A Baud vs Wuf duel is premature. Only a couple players think we're wolfy. What we would find is that both wagons die down and the final lynch becomes Bigred or lolzzz or something that looks like less of a Day 1 mistake
Wuf, you bolded me, so you must have thought there was a decent chance I'm a wolf. Are you saying that I could be an asset to the village? Because I don't see any way you're a villager here.
If I'm wrong I deserve to die.
I think the point is that you should try to determine why someone is towning you, try to figure out if their motive is sincere. I'm prepared to explain why I think you're a villager, it's not really the greatest town tell in the world when we talk about experienced players. Earlier you made a quote tag fail. That's all. But I would expect a noob wolf to preview his posts to ensure he's happy with what he's posting. Either you didn't do that, or you realised (or was told in the den) that the tag fail would make your post appear more natural. I would heavily lean the former in your case, I think you're just not bothered how your posts are perceived, which is extremely villagery from a noob. I'm not prepared to consider you a lock villager all game based on that alone, but it's enough for a d1 town read.Quote:
Originally Posted by GrayFoxxxx
baudib has also been making similar posts, only in his case I wouldn't be so surprised that he's doing it deliberately. He's already played half a game with us, as wolf, and has shown us that he's been reading up old games, so he could easily have realised post fails can natural. His performance last game was remarkable for a noob, and he's earned the respect of the regs. I think that's gonna work against him while people are still figuring him out.
ong giving me too much credit. you guys decide if you think the duel is a good idea. i'll leave my vote on bikes for now.
The game is about gathering information and changing views based on new stuff. Because of this, I want to lynch you less than when I bolded you.Quote:
Originally Posted by baudib
If it doesn't flow naturally, it's not a good idea. Half the players hate the idea of duels too. I used to like them but not anymore since they usually result in nothing that benefits the villageQuote:
Originally Posted by baudib
I have no idea what to make of baudib's posturing here. How can he be so confident in a d1 read that he's prepared to 1 vs 1? I'm not even sure I've ever been that confident, and I certainly don't feel that I deserve to die for being wrong on d1. This just feels like "too balls out for wolf" kind of thinking, which I think is wolfy, not villagery.
I don't particularly like the idea of a 1 vs 1 between the two most active players. I'm not confident enough there's a wolf between them to put my vote on either. baudib is very likely to be the one I'd go for though if my hand is forced.
Substitution #1.
BankItDrew has taken the place of Credsfan03. His non-factional role (for Narration purposes only) is Prospector.
BankItDrew has received his role via PM and is welcome to participate in this thread.
Credsfan03 is out due to inactivity.
There are two pending substitutions. lolzzz_321 and SweetClaireRose. If these two players are interested in remaining in the game, they should begin posting as soon as possible. Remaining substitutions (if necessary) will take place in alphabetical order as soon as subs are confirmed.
It's pretty crazy that buadib is happy enough with his wuf read that he's 1 vs 1 with him on d1, yet his vote is on bikes.
omgyes rescind bigred lynch bid
Yeah thanks for replacing in drew, here get lynched immediately.
No thanks wuf.
I think my reads on Wuf are pretty good. I like his style. There's certainly plenty of old material to look back on. I feel like I'm in his head.
I could be making classic noobish mistake of just zeroing in on someone being a wolf and seeing everything he does through that lens. I'm still voting Bikes, but I could see how he could be a villager. GF looking more like a villager.
Wuf? I don't see it at all.
Day #1 ends Tuesday, 2:57am (Eastern Time)
15 Players Remaining
a500lbgorilla
BankItDrew
baudib
bigred
bikes
gabe
GatorJH
GrayFoxxxx
Keith
Keybored
lolzzz_321
OngBonga
rong
SweetClaireRose
wufwugy
9 Regular Villagers
1 Every Night Angel
1 Odd Night Seer
1 Even Night Vigilante
3 Wolves
ermagerd ur so in my head. whatever will a girl doooooooo
This exactly.Quote:
Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla
Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
Yes, when he is a villager. As much as a day one bigred lynch would make my week I can't get on board just yet.
lynching bid is always super hard. why? several reasons: some of the players think they read him super easy so they don't bother, i always feel so bad about how much i berate him that i never do the lord's work and get him lynched, and he's just kinda forgetful in a way like people don't even think losing to him as a wolf is any kind of loss
im saying this to say that he's more likely a wolf or a special than just a vanilla due to getting subbed like that. it doesn't matter if he's a special because just like in his last game, we can all count on him to not even remember he has a power. so yeah, keep that in mind
if bid's the angel, he's just going to protect himself, even though he cant. if he's the seer he's just going to look up himself because he'll think he's really the angel and protecting himself. if he's the vig, he'll probably try to shoot the mod because he's mad that he's not the angel so he can protect himself every night