Lukie I feel sorry for your Browns, Sports Illustrated had a few articles on them today and your team is a jooooooke
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Lukie I feel sorry for your Browns, Sports Illustrated had a few articles on them today and your team is a jooooooke
Ty Law playing for the Broncos? How old is he these days? 90?
This is rediculous. The CB spot is pretty solid! Denver's OL is the one that's looking for better protection.
Sigh...the Colts lose 4 defensive starters in one week? Seems like it's time to move on with Bob Sanders...
Andre Johnson will be matched up with a rookie all fucking game long...sigh.
at least you don't have to deal w/ OD, but ya, looking for big things from Andre on Sunday.Quote:
Originally Posted by Illfavor
a reason for Redskins fans to be happy
http://static.nfl.com/static/content...allery_600.jpg
That woman could make me a Redskins fan.
Do I start Moats or Sproles in the flex this week?
i'm completely indifferentQuote:
Originally Posted by UG
Lol Houstonaments.
Wow that picture. Miami's defense is holding surprisingly well today iyam.
Yeah, best we could have asked for from the defense... and then there's Ted Ginn.
God I fucking hate every fucking single thing about Philip Rivers. I fucking hate that stupid faggot cunt.
i love me some rivers and vjax
yea cowboys
andy reid has to be one of the nfl's worst game coaches
"Clark has 'sickle cell trait'" is tilting me.
imagine what chargers fans must think of eli manningQuote:
Originally Posted by Illfavor
Colts Pats game this week. Gonna be sweet. I really think the Colts are going to win unfortunately.
i like this topic and what you can put in it lol.
i would have to say that the saints are going to win their diviasion. they find a way to win games. thewy have alot of weapons and their defense has played big this year. be nice to see them make the playoffs and maybe the superbowl :)
it is sad for me to say that i am a raiders fan. someone need to kidnap al davis and ship him to timbuktoo so we can start all over. get rid of jamarcus and pay some money for a fricken quarterback
I LOVE LAMP
that is a funny ass clip you have there. is that the drunken numb chuck technique. i love itQuote:
Originally Posted by UG
I'm not a Giants fan, I just hate him as a human being. The impression he gives off as a person is just really unfavorable to me. There's sportsmanship, and then there's childishness, and then there's Culter/Rivers.Quote:
Originally Posted by Lukie
...Spenda...
You ok buddy?
silly question to ask, ofc I am, status quo imo
Bucs get win #2 this weekend at Miami.
They will get win #3 at Carolina.
Bucs finish the season with at least 4 wins.
Helllloooo rookie QB who can play :)
:cut:Quote:
Originally Posted by Illfavor
ICH HABE DONNERSTAGS-NACHT FUSSBALL AMERICANISCHEN GERN!
Would you believe there are people in the Denver Broncos Camp that have been calling for Chris Simms to be QB1 since day one of the McDaniels Experiment?
I think they are fucking nuts too.
Mega refphail in the Cowboys game. Way to hand over TDs to GB.
Also, how is it not a penalty when the head coach challenges a play w/o a challenge left? Like a delay of game? I mean the players can't kick the ball (that is almost always replaced by an alternate one for the next play) but the HC can waste 5 realtime minutes bc the refs aren't aware?
GOOOOOOOOOOOOOO LIONS!!!! :(
I'm not a Cowboys fan, but still, they got screwed a few timesQuote:
Originally Posted by Illfavor
1. The fumble on the punt return, he was not down by contact, as when his left knee hit, it bounced off the ground and then he was contacted, should have been a fumble and Dallas ball
2. Felix Jones clearly recovered that fumble, how can that not be challengeable, absolutely ridiculous
3. Definitely needs to be a delay of game penalty when you stop the game for 2min when Dallas is in the no-huddle and you don't have any challenges
4. Ridiculous (two) hands to the face penalties, and numerous holding penalties that went uncalled
Finally, LOL ROY WILLIAMS, talk all that smack and make the two biggest gaffes of the game, congrats sir.
HOLY FUCKING SHIT WHAT A GAME!!!
Also, HOLY FUCKING SHIT THE WORST CALL IN THE HISTORY OF 4TH DOWNS!!!
FUCKING THIS!Quote:
Originally Posted by Illfavor
Glad one of my teams still kicks ass. :)
this.Quote:
Originally Posted by Illfavor
hindsight, 20/20
if that was a bad call, it was a slightly bad one at worst. at least consider that manning drives 70 yards there in 4 down territory with >2 minutes and timeouts a lot of the times, and Brady gets 2 yards there from a 5 wide set most of the time.
Pats D had been decent against the pass, and their 2min TD drive just before was aided considerably by a 30 yard penalty. I mean they had their play and they ran it, but if you're going for it on 4th and 2 and it's 3rd and 2, how do you not just run it twice vs. the 2nd worst run D in the NFL? That's my biggest problem with it. Bill clearly didn't plan his hand. >.>Quote:
Originally Posted by Lukie
Tom Brady?
Oh wait no...Peyton Manning.
BTW, that was a good call. I don't care what anyone says. Your chances of converting a 4th and 2 with Tom Brady are > your chances of stopping Peyton Manning from going down the field 65 yards or so and scoring a TD with 2 minutes left and a timeout in his pocket.
Blah blah blah you must punt blah blah blah. Ballsy call. Most everyone would be saying Belichick was a damn genius if he'd made that first down.
Oh, and btw...iffy judgment call on that not being a first down.
Basically this, but I think it was a slightly good call at worst. Belichick is not one to pass up +EV edges no matter how small they are.Quote:
Originally Posted by Lukie
Instant classic, <3 Peyton Manning, GO COLTS!!!!
^ only resulted oriented dbags.Quote:
Originally Posted by ensign_lee
I fail to see the difference between what you wrote and ESPN sportscasters. Hell, ANY sportscasters for that matter, save a few that are former players.Quote:
Originally Posted by kingnat
Maybe some credit for the Colts defense as well? Hm?
Also, lol sry Bungles your successes don't matter when the big boys play a close game.
congrats colts defense, you only gave up about 500 yards offense and 34 points, but you made a couple key stops so good job
Haters gotta hate.
I just enjoy how the analysts say "you have to take the high percentage play there and punt" with out realizing the higher % play is going for it. I wonder if any of the people bashing Bill today will recant tomorrow and apologize.
xpost from youtube thread
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FTxHuUGG_2c
spenda, you do realize this is a ridiculous thing to say, right? there's a reason every team in the nfl/college/high school punts the ball on 4th down and doesn't go madden05 on everyone and go for every 4th down conversion.Quote:
Originally Posted by bigspenda73
The D made the play when it mattered, and that's pretty much what they've done all season...9-0 so...yea. I think they'll take it. Hatas gon hate while playas play.
Like I said, if you're going to go for it on 4th and 2, run it on 3rd and 2. I'm pretty sure they get it at a much higher % than throwing it twice, since they were running pretty much unfettered the entire game.
I like the call for that game, but pretty tough to give a pep talk to the defense next week.
bode the average NFL play gets more than 2 yards, which I think is what Spenda is referencing. Whether or not this was the right call in this spot, for sure teams should go on 4th much much more. Read some old TMQ articles for stats. Because everyone else does it is really a poor argument, read history books for examples.
More importantly WhoooooooDeeeeeeey
I wonder if Herm supports BB's decision... Should you play to win, or play not to lose... Hmm... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IMk5sMHj58I
I'd like to see Bill's EV equation
The Pats rookie left tackle did a commendable job in that game though.
Is it just me or is it way past time for the NFL to adopt the college replay system? Not being able to challenge plays just because you get one (or two)'wrong' makes no sense, especially since on some plays like fumbles the officials are almost forced to rule one way to allow the play to be reviewed. College games don't end up with more reviews than NFL games in my experience. And surely we want the calls to be right whether or not a team has time outs left.
That said, given the current system I don't think there is any time it makes sense to call a timeout, at least on offense on 1st or 2nd down, before the last ~4 minutes of the half. Much better to take a delay of game or run a play with not much hope of success than give up the chance of overturning a huge blown call. Even on 3rd/4th down it's debatable. And this is just replay, there are of course lots of reasons you need the TOs late.
I guess on defense it makes sense if you are totally out of whack vs a set maybe it's OK but I think those situations are pretty few and far between.
Yes.Quote:
Originally Posted by drmcboy
yeah I'm there too, but the challenge rules are much more important than overtime. also there are at least some negatives to the college OT but none that I have seen to college challenges.
Back to the NE/Colts 4th and 2 debacle.
70 yards in 2 minutes, or 35 yards in 1:45.. Either the Colts are going 3 and out, or scoring the touchdown.
It's been said for a very long time now. The only way you can 100% positively absolutely guarantee that Peyton Manning won't score a touchdown, is to not let him have the ball. And even then, he finds ways to score (Miami at Indy earlier this year)
They call it a gaffe, but I disagree. I think that the play was fine, and was "the" pivotal play of the game, because Peyton in 2 minutes can go 99 yards, no matter how good the Defense is.
colts definitely go 3 and out and punt the ball back to NEQuote:
Originally Posted by Ragnar4
I agree with you, but to say that college games have fewer reviews is mostly untrue in my experience, and I'd be interested to know the comparable statistics on stoppages of play.Quote:
Originally Posted by drmcboy
crazy how the only person that goes for it is widely considered (by players/analysts/etc) the best coach in the NFLQuote:
Originally Posted by bode
The math has already proven Bill's decision had a higher winning expectation than punting.
Doc, no doubt the NFL should adopt the college system, which isn't perfect, but is still a lot better than what the NFL has. Instant replay is all about getting the call correct w/o significantly slowing the game down. It's obvious the college system does a much better job at achieving this goal.
I totally agree with spenda here. It's definitely the higher % play to go with Brady for 2 yards to seal the game, then to put it in Manning's hands with 70+ yards and two minutes with a TO in his pocket. The Patriots defense was really starting to shut down in the 4th so its not that surprising that he went for it.
When I was watching the game I'm like, "SHIT THEYRE GOING FOR IT! Thats the game" :( Then i pretty much blew my load when the defense stuff them lol.
see boldQuote:
Originally Posted by Illfavor
It's interesting how Belichick and his former assistants are all falling apart now that they don't have a hidden camera to know what the other team is doing. Belichick losing 5 of 6 vs. the Colts and making the worst coaching decision of all time, Crennel and Mangini making fools of themselves in Cleveland, McDaniels proving his start in Denver was a fluke, Weis about to get fired from Notre Dame. Makes you wonder whether they would have ever amounted to anything if they hadn't cheated.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0EU1O-hGxgg
Besides Mike this echoes pretty much every Colts fans sentiments, which is crazy because then you see the polls online and people are talking about how awful a call it was, yet at the time everyone in America felt like they were going to make it.Quote:
Originally Posted by dranger7070
If they would have gone 3-out at the 70, why wouldn't they have gone 3-out at the 35. More important WHY DIDN'T THEY?Quote:
Originally Posted by flomo
This "hata" is the same guy that brought up that the Colts had won 16 straight regular season games (a few weeks ago), and the possibility that Peyton Manning could be the best QB of all time. So while I realize that the D came up with a few big stops/turnovers in crunch time, the reality is that if the Colts had any QB not named Peyton Manning (or maybe Brees), they'd be down 4 scores and it wouldn't have mattered in the first place.Quote:
Originally Posted by Illfavor
I think running there twice is better as well, assuming you get at least a yard or so on the first run.
Where? I'd like to see this.Quote:
Originally Posted by bigspenda73
FWIW I agree, I just have a hard time assigning probabilities to certain situations.
You mean like starting 18-0 one year (then losing to Osi/Strahan/Tuck with perfect conditions), 11-5 with a QB that hadn't played meaningful time since high school, and now 3 tough, close road losses to good teams?Quote:
Originally Posted by mcatdog
Personally I think Brady's knee exploding and subsequent staph infection have a lot (A LOT) more to do with the Pats' recent lack of success than what you are suggesting.
Can you elaborate on how it was the worst coaching decision of all time?
That was a first down btw, bad call by the ref.
The decision by bellicheck was ok i thought
FWIW I don't actually believe anything I said in that post, I just hate Bill Belichick and felt like trolling, also I had an over/under bet with spenda on how long it'd be before someone took my post seriously.Quote:
Originally Posted by Lukie
Damn, I got owned. Who won?
Advanced NFL Stats made a post on this: http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009...-vs-colts.html
It's a reasonably good breakdown but I'd add a couple points as well.Quote:
New England coach Bill Belichick is taking a lot of heat for his decision to attempt a 4th down conversion late in the game against the Colts. Indianapolis came back to win in dramatic fashion. Was the decision a good one?
With 2:00 left and the Colts with only one timeout, a successful conversion wins the game for all practical purposes. A 4th and 2 conversion would be successful 60% of the time. Historically, in a situation with 2:00 left and needing a TD to either win or tie, teams get the TD 53% of the time from that field position. The total WP for the 4th down conversion attempt would therefore be:
(0.60 * 1) + (0.40 * (1-0.53)) = 0.79 WP
A punt from the 28 typically nets 38 yards, starting the Colts at their own 34. Teams historically get the TD 30% of the time in that situation. So the punt gives the Pats about a 0.70 WP.
Statistically, the better decision would be to go for it, and by a good amount. However, these numbers are baselines for the league as a whole. You'd have to expect the Colts had a better than a 30% chance of scoring from their 34, and an accordingly higher chance to score from the Pats' 28. But any adjustment in their likelihood of scoring from either field position increases the advantage of going for it. You can play with the numbers any way you like, but it's pretty hard to come up with a realistic combination of numbers that make punting the better option. At best, you could make it a wash.
One is that dealing with Brady and Manning, you can increase the probability of a successful conversion (maybe, there are other factors here as well) and successful drives from both spots by Manning. Both of these work to make it look like an even better decision.
There are also some obscure possibilities (punt return TD, losing despite converting, multiple scores, etc.) that are hard to quantify, but overall they are a wash at worst and likely favor the Pats.
All-in-all, I thought it was pretty neutral at the time just going by my gut, but any reasonable breakdown shows it to be +EV imo.
BB isn't completely without blame though.
Indy was sitting on the quick outs all 4th quarter, so on third and 2, what do the Pats do? :x
If you're going to be going for it on 4th and 2 there, run+run or run+pass surely have a better chance of converting, plus the run forces another timeout and it's safer as well.
Horrible timeout management, defense collapsed, offense sputtered, etc etc etc
Finally someone agrees.Quote:
Originally Posted by Lukie
Kinda sucks, being a huge Colts fan and all, that 9-0, 18 straight, Manning pulling a Manning, is lost in all this.
Agree. It's ridiculous how much this is getting overlooked in lieu of Pat's decision to go for. :(Quote:
Originally Posted by Illfavor
I agree. The Colts are the best team in the league right now.Quote:
Originally Posted by Illfavor
It's probably a combination of things.. the streak was interrupted by a one and done in the playoffs vs a really weak (by playoff standards) San Diego team. Plus everyone loves to rip on Belichick/Belicheat/best coach in NFL history depending on what team your root for.
JAMAL CHARLES