Russians vs. Americans: A Werewolf Game for October 2015

We got this.

I can lynch either gator or hifi, it doesn't matter because the wolf is poisoned.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by SuperMonkeyFace

Super monkey ball is definitely where the name derived from. The fight game with the boxing gloves was the bestttttt

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Yesss

Did you notice in your first game I put you down as supermonkeyball in the signup thread?

monkey, assuming I'm the healer, I'm not protecting you without a hard claim, because from my healer pov you can only be seer (or wolf) and we need your peeks before you die...

You got poisoned by the village poisoner, thus that's not you.
If you're seer, stop dicking about and tell us who you peeked and then the healer will protect you, forcing wolves to nom you.
If you're healer, then tell us and protect yourself so you become confirmed villa.

There is no reason for you to hold back from hard claiming. If you're the healer, then just tell us, because the wolf will figure that out when you get healed.

If you refuse to hard claim, then you must be a wolf who fucked up by soft claiming special yesterday and now doesn't know what to do. Thus, you're not getting healed.

Just concede or hard claim please.

:)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Luco

Yesss

Did you notice in your first game I put you down as supermonkeyball in the signup thread?

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Haha yup! It's also been my Xbox 360 handle for like 10 years or close to

Quote:

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Originally Posted by SuperMonkeyFace

:)

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Ok I'm reading this as...

wait for baudib

I'm the healer. Was hoping for baudib to do the claim for me lol

Healer should never heal now that wolf poisoners are dead

Village gets two kills to every one nom

Quote:

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Originally Posted by SuperMonkeyFace

I'm the healer. Was hoping for baudib to do the claim for me lol

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Sick crosspost

Quote:

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Originally Posted by SuperMonkeyFace

I'm the healer. Was hoping for baudib to do the claim for me lol

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Given how unlikely it is for anyone but you to heal you, this timing is better, in terms of cross claims.

Yeah I'm not surprised.

Poisoner fucked up there. It was obvious that SMF was wolf or healer when he soft claimed without spewing info. No need to hit him because it gets resolved today without his itnervention.

lynch hifi

I think this is better simply because gator not getting poisoned kinda hints at gator = poisoner. No need confirming that just yet.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

Yeah I'm not surprised.

Poisoner fucked up there. It was obvious that SMF was wolf or healer when he soft claimed without spewing info. No need to hit him because it gets resolved today without his itnervention.

lynch hifi

I think this is better simply because gator not getting poisoned kinda hints at gator = poisoner. No need confirming that just yet.

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Man, having two specials in the poe means we could have shut this out yesterday with a massclaim

I have to say that if gator is the last wolf then hes played it damn near perfect so far

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Luco

Man, having two specials in the poe means we could have shut this out yesterday with a massclaim

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boog was around yesterday. I don't think we could poe two wolves with a massclaim unless we have solid info.

A masscalim probably does it here, but then again the wolves haven't picked off the seer yet, maybe they still don't know who it is.

Even though it's fucking obvious.

I mean it's hifi for that reason. Who's the one paying the least attention?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

Yeah I'm not surprised.

Poisoner fucked up there. It was obvious that SMF was wolf or healer when he soft claimed without spewing info. No need to hit him because it gets resolved today without his itnervention.

lynch hifi

I think this is better simply because gator not getting poisoned kinda hints at gator = poisoner. No need confirming that just yet.

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Gator not subbed in for N2 poison, though, right?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Luco

Man, having two specials in the poe means we could have shut this out yesterday with a massclaim

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It's never that easy. FWIW I think rascal is the last wolf. I just went through the first couple of days starting out with a focus on just him. His going after Drew and having Rilla in his wolf pile, on the surface, look very villagery for him. However, it isn't too hard to see that the wolves employed a "go after each other" strategy early in this game.

Luco, Ong and Beck - please take a look for yourself and let me know if you think I am tinfoiling.

Btw, I may miss on some fine points below because I am posting this like an excited kid at Christmas and don't have time to go back and make specific notes.

Here is what I see. Rascal targets BID pretty hard, also lists rilla in his wolf pile, but defends Aubrey.

Boog, IIRC also goes after BID and aubrey (or it might have been rilla).

When rascal voted for Drew it was at a spot that wouldn't hurt Drew.

Votes started changing pretty quickly, but at one point. Boog voted for Drew and one of the other wolves voted for Aubrey.

Votes kept changing and Drew, took a pretty big lead. He outs as backup poisoner, a minute later rascal posts "I'm back" (he had earlier posted that he was bowling that night) and then quickly rescinds from Drew.

Again, I was looking through things pretty quickly because I have to get to a meeting, but at first pass it looks pretty obvious now that we have 4 of the wolves down.

rascal is hard cleared if I'm on the right wavelength.

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

rascal is hard cleared if I'm on the right wavelength.

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How?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by GatorJH

How?

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One of these two...

a) I think he's the seer,
b) I think the seer has cleared him

************************************************** ***************
EVENT

:popcorn:

SuperMonkeyFace has been healed.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by GatorJH

It's never that easy. FWIW I think rascal is the last wolf. I just went through the first couple of days starting out with a focus on just him. His going after Drew and having Rilla in his wolf pile, on the surface, look very villagery for him. However, it isn't too hard to see that the wolves employed a "go after each other" strategy early in this game.

Luco, Ong and Beck - please take a look for yourself and let me know if you think I am tinfoiling.

Btw, I may miss on some fine points below because I am posting this like an excited kid at Christmas and don't have time to go back and make specific notes.

Here is what I see. Rascal targets BID pretty hard, also lists rilla in his wolf pile, but defends Aubrey.

Boog, IIRC also goes after BID and aubrey (or it might have been rilla).

When rascal voted for Drew it was at a spot that wouldn't hurt Drew.

Votes started changing pretty quickly, but at one point. Boog voted for Drew and one of the other wolves voted for Aubrey.

Votes kept changing and Drew, took a pretty big lead. He outs as backup poisoner, a minute later rascal posts "I'm back" (he had earlier posted that he was bowling that night) and then quickly rescinds from Drew.

Again, I was looking through things pretty quickly because I have to get to a meeting, but at first pass it looks pretty obvious now that we have 4 of the wolves down.

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Lol. And you were doing so well too

lynch gator

I doubt it. I mean gator would be trooping on in a lost cause. Not his style, I've seen him concede lost causes before.

gator is poisoner. Lynch hifi instead. If gator is the wolf, expect him to be poisoned tomorrow.

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

I doubt it. I mean gator would be trooping on in a lost cause. Not his style, I've seen him concede lost causes before.

gator is poisoner. Lynch hifi instead. If gator is the wolf, expect him to be poisoned tomorrow.

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I am not the poisoner, just a regular villager.

If rascal is not confirmed villager or special take a hard look at my next post. I will be voting for him today. If you guys lynch me today make sure you take a hard look at him (or poison him).

lynch rascal

Through post 380 BID had focused primarily on Bigred while Rascal focused on Luco

Here Aubrey puts fellow wolf rilla in a "one of these is a wolf" pile and defends lilrascal

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Originally Posted by aubreymcfate

hey all.

Just read through everything, here's some initial thoughts:

* Regarding those who bolded/targeted Kami: Day 1 person posting flippantly is definitely going to attract at least one wolf in the group of people targeting her.

Top Tier Tom, Ong, and Wug found her wolfy bc of that initial bold and poor reasoning. Gizmo and BID seemed less convinced that she did anything wolfy, and just found her a worthy d1 lynch bc they didn't find her posts serious enough. So there are 2 camps of Kami lynching -- those who took her posting seriously enough to think she is wolfy, and those who see that she's posting like she doesn't care and find her a liability.

conclusions from above: There is definitely a wolf in that group, even if I don't find voting for her particularly wolfy in and of itself (majority of kami votes are villagers, obv). Not sure if one mode of reasoning seems wolfier than the other yet but I think it's worth keeping in mind.

* Gizmo flipping to Rilla when he thought Rilla was wolfy and back to Kami when Rilla clarified his post makes Gizmo lean more villager than the rest to me. It looks authentic.

* chuckling IRL at the rocky convo. makes lilrascal lean village for me bc of how much of a stretch it is. seems more likely for a villager to try to catch someone on some insanely subtle slip (and be so earnestly relentless about it!) but if he is a wolf, that's very clever.

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Boog defending Rascal

Quote:

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Originally Posted by BooG690

D1 and 434 posts. That must be some kind of record. I'm pretty sure nobody mentioned me which bores me.

I like Rascal as V after his curious interaction with Luco re: DRAGOOOOOO. Wolves don't grasp at weak arguments like that.

HiFi, BATM and Kami aren't posting anything of substance. Unsure what to think of this but getting rid of any one of them can't be too bad for the village.

Which 8 are those?

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Rascal had been focused on Gabe, now switches to Drew

Quote:

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Originally Posted by lilrascal

I don't like this post by BID. The last sentence is not what Ong is doing this game, so I don't know why he's saying this.

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Rascal makes his reads post then votes for Gabe

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Originally Posted by lilrascal

I've caught up on the thread. Here's where I stand with my reads for now:

Villa Leans
Beck
Ong
Luco
MMM
TTT

NightGizmo

Neutral
Wufwugy
Kami
JKDS
Hifi

BATM
SMF

No read - Need more posting
aubreymcfate
Bigred
Boog
Dsaxton
ShipItUp

Wolf Leans
rilla
BID
gabe

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He quotes TTT's Aubrey lynch with this....

Quote:

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Originally Posted by lilrascal

I need to go relook at her, but Beck made some good points that make her not look so good.

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... but then quotes the same post with this.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by lilrascal

She's only got 3 posts so far (380, 388 and 416). Her switch on Kami is not great, but I don't think it's lynch worthy.

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...and follows with this.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by lilrascal

I read it and agree that it doesn't look good for her, but I think there are better wolf candidates.

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Drew defends Rilla

Quote:

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Originally Posted by BankItDrew

I had to go back to read his posts just now because I couldn't remember anything he posted.

He isn't impressing me this game but I don't know if it's role-indicative or if my standards of rilla are too high. I mean, almost all of his posts are short one sentence posts with not much in them. But nothing wolfy stands out. Whereas some posts are villagery.

So if I had to pick, I'd say villager. There's certainly more village posts than wolfy (0) ones.

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Hoopy jumps in with this vote count

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Hoopy

YOU CAN COUNT ON THE HOOPMAN TO COUNT BITCHES!

Kami 4 (Wufwugy, TheBrokenATM, aubreymcfate, NightGizmo)
BankItDrew 2 (Hifi, OngBonga)
Aubrey 2 (Beck, Top Tier Tom)
TopTierTom 2 (Kami, ShipItUp)
Wufwugy 1 (Rilla)
Ongbonga 1 (BankItDrew)

not voting: Dsaxton, MadMojoMonkey, Super Monkey Face, lilrascal, Gabe, Luco, Boog, Bigred, JKDS

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Thn rascal voted for Drew

Quote:

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Originally Posted by lilrascal

Lynch BID

You didn't do anything to convince me I'm wrong about my read on you. I read you correctly last time you wolfed.

Heading off to work now. I'll try and check in at lunch, see you this evening, I bowl tonight so I won't be around a lot this evening.

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Drew defends aubrey again.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by BankItDrew

JKDS, I'll follow your lead on aubs and agree with you.

Who do you find wolfy?

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Baud posts this count...........

Quote:

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Originally Posted by baudib

Vote count
Kami 4 (Wufwugy, TheBrokenATM, aubreymcfate, NightGizmo)
Aubreymcfate 4 (Beck, Top Tier Tom, ProbablyNotAWolf, Kami)
BankItDrew 2 (Hifi, OngBonga, lilrascal)
TopTierTom 1 (ShipItUp)
Wufwugy 1 (Rilla)
Ongbonga 1 (BankItDrew)
a500lbgorilla 1 (Luco)
not voting: MadMojoMonkey, Super Monkey Face, Gabe, Boog, Bigred, JKDS

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then boog votes for BID

Quote:

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Originally Posted by BooG690

Why is BID not on the top of everyone's wolf list? These two quotes have my spidey sense tingling. BID has been consistently inconsistent (from about page 6 onwards).

Lynch BID
For the record, TTT is on the tippity top of my villager list with JKDS at a further second.

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baud posts this vote count.....

Quote:

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Originally Posted by baudib

Vote count
Kami 4 (Wufwugy, TheBrokenATM, aubreymcfate, NightGizmo)
Aubreymcfate 4 (Beck, Top Tier Tom, ProbablyNotAWolf, Kami)
BankItDrew 4 (Hifi, OngBonga, lilrascal, BooG)
TopTierTom 1 (ShipItUp)
Wufwugy 1 (Rilla)
Ongbonga 1 (BankItDrew)
a500lbgorilla 1 (Luco)
SuperMonkeyFace 1 (gabe)
not voting: MadMojoMonkey, Super Monkey Face, Bigred, JKDS

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...then Drew votes for Aubrey

Quote:

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Originally Posted by BankItDrew

rescind
lynch aubrey

It doesn't seem like anyone wants to lynch ong and my train is building steam so in an act of self-preservation I'll reluctantly vote aubrey.

FWIW though, she's probably a villager and I don't think there is anything to the 'who is Tom?' thing.

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Drew explaining his switch to Aubrey, but as a fellow wolf should have moved to Kami. Wolf absolutely targeting another wolf here.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by BankItDrew

I gave up. Self-preservation is more important than a wasted vote at this point in D2. I'll happily try again tomorrow.

Look at it this way:
I campaigned against ong.
I'm the only vote on ong with a few hours left in D2.
I know I'm a villager and I'm on the chopping block late.

Me changing my vote there is the best possible thing I can do right now.

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Drew goes after Aubrey, but defends Rilla

Quote:

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Originally Posted by BankItDrew

Aubrey is a wolf more often than kami but I don't see the rilla hate.

I defended him earlier with reasons about 12 hours ago and he hasn't changed my mind since then.

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now drew targets Kami, but didn't vote for her earlier. A pattern has evolved

Quote:

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Originally Posted by BankItDrew

Kami.

1) Her posts are short, infrequent, and lacking substance. This may only be the second time I've played with her but it's consistent with her wolf game last time.
2) I predict no value coming from kami as a villager in the later stages of the game for the reasons I already mentioned.
3) Kami targeted someone who was appeared as town, for what reason, exactly? Because she doesn't like it when players receive town cred?

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then changes to Kami

Quote:

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Originally Posted by BankItDrew

I didn't put any thought into it! Now that I have, while looking like a schmuck, I'll change it lol

rescind
lynch kami

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getting near the end of the day and the vote count stands as follows: Not sure if boog and rascal being on Drew is good or bad for him.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by baudib

THIS IS A VOTE COUNT
BankItDrew 4 (Hifi, lilrascal, Boog, Wufwugy)
Aubreymcfate 3 (ProbablyNotAWolf, OngBonga, TopTierTom)
Kami 3 (TheBrokenATM, aubreymcfate, Bankitdrew)
ShipItUp 3 (gabe, Nightgizmo, Rilla)
NightGizmo 3 (ShipItUp, Kami, Luco)
Rilla 1 (JKDS)
JKDS 1 (Beck)
not voting: MadMojoMonkey, Super Monkey Face, Bigred

Day ends in 41 minutes.

:00 good, :01 bad

let me know of corrections immediately

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Drew took the lead, outed as backup poisoner, rascal rescinded then posted this, yet he had voted for her earlier.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by lilrascal

I'm not sold on an Aubrey lynch. It seems too easy.

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He then ended up voting for Gizmo.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

I doubt it. I mean gator would be trooping on in a lost cause. Not his style, I've seen him concede lost causes before.

gator is poisoner. Lynch hifi instead. If gator is the wolf, expect him to be poisoned tomorrow.

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Btw, yes this would fall into the "lost cause" category. If I were the last wolf I would be having some fun right now.

lynch gator

If I'm wrong about my hunch, then rascal becomes a possibility. However, that MUST wait until the seer claims.

gator should have figured this much out, and this just looks like he's trying to off someone who won't get lynched later.

Checking in.

Sorry I've been so absent lately.

Who is still alive?

beck -

Quote:

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Originally Posted by baudib

Live players (9)

Beck Novo
GatorJH
Hifi
lilrascal
Luco
MadMojoMonkey
OngBonga
SuperMonkeyFace
Wufwugy

NightGizmo,vanillager, lynched D1
TopTierTom, vanillager, killed N1
a500lbgorilla, wolf poisoner, ITAd on D2
aubreymcfate, vanilla wolf, ITAd on D2
JKDS, vanillager, ITAd on D2
BankItDrew, wolf spymaster, lynched D2
Kami, vanillager, poisoned D2
ShipItUp, vanillager, poisoned D2
ProbablyNotAWolff, vanillager, killed N2
BooG690, wolf backup poisoner, lynched D3
TheBrokenATM, vanillager, poisoned D3
gabe, village backup poisoner, nomnomnommed N3

D4 will end Friday at noon EST.

:heart:

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cliffs - smf was poisoned, claimed healer, was healed, conf villa

Thank you.

So we have nine players left. One of which is our Healer, one of which is our Poisoner, and one of which is our Spymaster. One is also a Vanilla Wolf. So this means that we also have five Vanillagers left. Has anyone softed a claim of any sort?

Other than SMF, I've read through that.

Hifi has been softing all game

Luco and Ong, can you help me establish an honest list from top to bottom of players most likely to be a villager to most likely to be a wolf? I suggest that we start here and just lynch down the list.

D1: 8V/1W - ML
N1: 7V/1W
D2: 6V/1W - ML
N2: 5V/1W
D3: 4V/1W - ML
N3: 3V/1W
D4: 2V/1W (MYLO)

We have three potential ML's here if we opt to not Poison (which would be smart). I see no reason not to play the straightforward game here.

*and if we opt to not Poison then we're in great shape.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Beck Novo

Thank you.

So we have nine players left. One of which is our Healer, one of which is our Poisoner, and one of which is our Spymaster. One is also a Vanilla Wolf. So this means that we also have five Vanillagers left. Has anyone softed a claim of any sort?

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I figured gator was poisoner by virtue of him not being poisoned, but he's denied it, claimed vanilla.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Luco

Hifi has been softing all game

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She was at one point my seer pick. That was the reason I voted smf and tried to be coy about it. Something about not exposing a special lol. I thought hifi was trying to say BATM was conf villa.

I don't think she's seer any more. I think she was more likely softing to fakeclaim later.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Beck Novo

*and if we opt to not Poison then we're in great shape.

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If we keep poisoning we get two villager shots to every one wolf nom

An additional thought: I cannot see SMF being NK'd immediately here. The wolf needs the Healer alive in case he's Poisoned. It would be his only way out. This means that the wolf may be forced to shoot into the PoE we're about to establish, which would be great.

In all honesty it doesn't even look like the remaining wolf was Seer hunting last night, only going after obvious Villagers.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Beck Novo

Luco and Ong, can you help me establish an honest list from top to bottom of players most likely to be a villager to most likely to be a wolf? I suggest that we start here and just lynch down the list.

D1: 8V/1W - ML
N1: 7V/1W
D2: 6V/1W - ML
N2: 5V/1W
D3: 4V/1W - ML
N3: 3V/1W
D4: 2V/1W (MYLO)

We have three potential ML's here if we opt to not Poison (which would be smart). I see no reason not to play the straightforward game here.

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I'm sorry I've been barking today that I think I know who the seer is, so if I give a list of villager knees (that's the 2015 ftr buzzword now) then I'm basically telling everyone who I think the seer is.

Today we lynch either gator or hifi.

I think we should poison the other if we get a village flip, but I haven't really crunched any numbers to consider the merits of poisoner holding off from here.

Assuming our Poisoner remains active and we do not Heal, also assuming we only Poison Villagers:

D1: 8V/1W - ML
N1: 7V/1W - (Wolf NK + V Poisoned)
D2: 5V/1W - ML
N2: 4V/1W - (Wolf NK + V Poisoned)
D2: 2V/1W (MYLO)

So with the above assumption, we only cost ourselves one ML, which isn't that bad. It all really depends upon how we want to play our hand here.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Beck Novo

In all honesty it doesn't even look like the remaining wolf was Seer hunting last night, only going after obvious Villagers.

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gabe was an outed special, so in that respect a forced kill at some point. Wolf will be seer hunting tonight.

The gabe kill tells me one of two things...

a) they are confident they know who the seer is and intend to pick him off tonight,
b) they haven't a clue and were hoping for a massclaim today.

Apologies, the second D2 above should be D3 (MYLO).

I think much depends on who becomes cleared when everyone has claimed.

I'm not sure about a massclaim today though because maybe the wolf misses the seer if we don't.

Ongbonga has some serious villager knees this game

Starting to look at Hifi and the below looks pretty villagery as I am not sure a wolf would expose this much thought.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by HiFi

I have some thoughts on the poisoning/healing mechanics in this game which might be wildly unpopular but I'm going to get them out there anyway.

The village has a poisoner and a healer, but the wolves only have a poisoner. The village poisoner is super super important because they effectively double our killing power and therefore they need to live as long as possible. The backup poisoner is still vital, but less so because they're only really useful if the first poisoner dies early. The wolf poisoner doubles the wolves killing power too, but they don't have to worry as much about their poisoner dying since their backup will kick in at any point that the original poisoner dies. I still strongly suspect that the wolves will try their hardest to protect their poisoners, possibly to the extent of having them bus vanilla wolves while the seer is still alive (which would still be pretty lol but it might happen).

so every morning we are going to wake up with 2 poisoned players. If we wake up with only 1 poisoned player, either the village poisoner targeted the wolves nk (village poisoner: try hard not to do this) or both teams poisoned the same player. When/if this happens, the lone poisoned player WILL ALWAYS BE A VILLAGER AND SHOULD ALWAYS BE HEALED NO MATTER WHAT. That's pretty obvious but the rest of the poisoning/healing mechanics will take place on the margins.

So when we wake up with 2 poisoned players, what should the healer do? There are a couple different schools of thought here.

The first and usually most popular thing to do is to have everyone discuss who should be healed. This can be good because it allows strong villagers to have input and direct a healer who might be unsure. But it opens the door to a lot of problems because then wolves will have a say in who gets healed as well and it gives them a chance to advocate for the healing of a teammate should one of them happen to be poisoned. It also allows the wolves a chance to play perfectly by only targeting players which they know won't be consensus village healing picks.

Therefore, I am of the opinion that we should all shut the hell up and let the healer decide for themselves who should live and who should die. This guarantees that the decision of who to heal will be made by a villager 100% of the time and it will force the wolves to target players who might be mislynch candidates anyway and the village therefore loses less by them dying because the wolves will have to pull more mislynch candidates out of their hairy asses if they want a shot at winning.

Hope that made sense.

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She targets kami and TTT a bit then makes this post. I think it is her first mention of any wolf.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by HiFi

Drew might be a wolf but I don't think he's a wolf with kami.

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Then votes for Drew

Quote:

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Originally Posted by HiFi

Oh god

kami and drew can both be wolves if Drew is a pr and kami isn't

lynch bankitdrew

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makes this post when Aubrey and Drew were at 4 each so it kinda fits if they were targeting each other.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by HiFi

I'm High Fidelity and I approve these wagons.

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here he is replying to SMF about his vote on Drew then posts....

Quote:

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Originally Posted by HiFi

He is doing stuff that makes no sense and trying to make it look smoooooooooooooth

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...this. Either he is pretty smooth or he really didn't know about the outing till he got to that post.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by HiFi

Uggggggh ok just read

rescind

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She then said she could vote Aubrey or SIU but ended up on the gizmo wagon. Would a wolf just stick to SIU knowing both SIU and Gizmo were villagers?

Need to look at D2 later, but Rascal's posts fit the target/defend narrative more that Hifi's imo.

edited above to change a couple of "He's" to "she"

Vote Count

Gator - 3 (MMM, Luco, Ong)

rascal - 1 (Gator)


Not voting - Beck, Hifi, rascal, SuperMonkeyFace, Wuf

meh, I am not sure sure with this post (after rilla and Aubrey were shot). Him going rogue would have had to be a strategy for him to make this post.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by lilrascal

Here's where I stand right now, based on my reads and the ITA sessions:

Villas:
Luco - I had him as one of my top villas yesterday and IMO, he's lock cleared when you combine that with the rilla kill in the ITA session, especially with rilla flipping wolf PR
Hifi - I read her as neutral, but now almost as clear Luco for targeting rilla in the ITA

ong - Ong's been one of my top villa reads and combining that with his ITA shot on Aubrey reinforces that read
gabe - I've read gabe as wolfy this game (sorry), but others are reading him as villa, but his ITA of Aubrey pushes him into my villa pile
PNAW - I haven't had much of a read either way on PNAW, but his ITA shot on Aubrey pushes him into my villa pile

Beck - I've had him as one of my top villas and even though he shot at JKDS (I did too), I don't think it was a bad shot, especially when he was calling for a rilla shot to start the ITA session.

Neutrals:
MMM - I had him in my villa pile since we had a lot of similar reads, but I don't like the fact that he didn't vote D1 and didn't participate in the ITA, so he's neutral now
Bigred - I see glimpses of villa in him, but I need to see more
SMF - Keeps promising to deliver some reads, but doesn't produce, he hasn't done anything wolfy, but he hasn't done anything villagery either
Kami - Either a wolf or uncaring/unhelpful villager - most likely dying tonight, so we'll find out soon enough. I'm not sure what to make of her shot at BATM
BATM - His lack of presence in the thread is not like BATM in either role. Him not paying attention and voting for Ong who shot at Aubrey is neutral for BATM. He tends to skim and not read and votes more on gut IMO. I'm not sure what to think of both Kami and Boog shooting him might mean. If Boog flips wolf, then I think BATM is likely villa.

Wolves:
Boog - He seems disconnected and hasn't been doing anything villagery. But it BATM flips wolf it will make him look much better with the shot he took during the ITA.
SIU - Meh game, has done nothing villagery. Let the poison take care of him.
BID - He seems to be openly wolfing now, he's not trying to help the village at all. If he wouldn't have been stripped of his powers, I'd say lynch him today regardless of his claim, but fortunately we can wait on him and let it resolve. Or lynch him tomorrow if he doesn't start to try and be a villager.

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PROCESSED ACTION INCOMING

SIKE

Assuming Gator is a V, then what has HiFi done to be cleared besides shooting at kneeless rilla in the ITA?

D1 bigred - WTF performance that everyone read as villagery.
D2 bigred - typical no posting / reading such a long thread.
D3 Gator - has villager knees in his posts, still in POE.
D4 Gator - still has villager knees and the only reason he's still in my POE is GOATwolf paranoia.

I don't care what order Gator/HiFi goes down. I think the final wolf is in there.

If not there, then it's an epic GOAT wolf game, most likely from either Beck or wuf.

SMF is cleared 'cause many reasons, most mechanically convincing due to his foreknowledge of his own healing today.

Luco, ong, rascal - there's no wolf in there. If there is, then that's legendary uber-epic GOAT wolf pwnage.

lynch HiFi

The wolves were definitely targeting each other early in the game so if it isn't rascal then wuf may be a close second. My first impression from him was that many of his posts seemed wolfish but I discounted it because of his interaction with Aubrey.

If this game isn't over when I die take a look at my theory and see who fits that theory best.

Sorry I was busy irl and this game completely slipped my mind.

I be villagasaurus but I'm actually not a pr so you can lynch me if you have to as part of the Poe and I don't care when it happens so do as you must.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by GatorJH

Through post 380 BID had focused primarily on Bigred while Rascal focused on Luco

Here Aubrey puts fellow wolf rilla in a "one of these is a wolf" pile and defends lilrascal


Boog defending Rascal



Rascal had been focused on Gabe, now switches to Drew



Rascal makes his reads post then votes for Gabe



He quotes TTT's Aubrey lynch with this....


... but then quotes the same post with this.


...and follows with this.



Drew defends Rilla



Hoopy jumps in with this vote count



Thn rascal voted for Drew



Drew defends aubrey again.



Baud posts this count...........



then boog votes for BID



baud posts this vote count.....



...then Drew votes for Aubrey



Drew explaining his switch to Aubrey, but as a fellow wolf should have moved to Kami. Wolf absolutely targeting another wolf here.



Drew goes after Aubrey, but defends Rilla



now drew targets Kami, but didn't vote for her earlier. A pattern has evolved



then changes to Kami



getting near the end of the day and the vote count stands as follows: Not sure if boog and rascal being on Drew is good or bad for him.




Drew took the lead, outed as backup poisoner, rascal rescinded then posted this, yet he had voted for her earlier.



He then ended up voting for Gizmo.

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lllllllllllooooooooooooooooooollllllllllllllllllll lllllllllllllllllll gator trying to go full wuf. never go full wuf. wuf sees right through a fake full wuf.

lynch gator

if gator's not the wolf imma eat a shoe. as king tinfoil, i know what tinfoil looks like. this is not tinfoil. as king-follow-gator's-reads-because-theyre-better-than-mine, this does not look at all like the kind of insightful read he gets as a villager.

game fucking ovah. oh vee ay aich

btw i lold hard at boog hard claiming wuf. almost worked!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by wufwugy

if gator's not the wolf imma eat a shoe.

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You said something similar last game. How did that work out for ya?

And what I mean by that is you totally suck at reading me.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by GatorJH

You said something similar last game. How did that work out for ya?

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nyet. didnt happen.

Quote:

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And what I mean by that is you totally suck at reading me.

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im about fifty fifty

The last wolf isn't me and it isn't hifi. Neither of us care that we die. I get that you can't let us live to the end, but you need to start thinking to the next level of people because that is where this village is going.

My top two suspects are rascal (by a long shot) and wuf.

It's hifi

I'll explain later when I'm home

In the meantime you guys can look at that game I quoted and do an ISO yourself..

I know what I'm looking for though. It's to a tee replicated

LOL gator. Boog tried to mislynch me yesterday too.

Lynch Gator

Quote:

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Originally Posted by SuperMonkeyFace

It's hifi

I'll explain later when I'm home

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He's in my POE, but why him over gator? I await your explanation.

Alright, I've been mulling this over all day and I don't see any reason not to claim. Odds are likely that I could be NK'd tonight anyway, so I would rather explain myself now than be NK'd and have the village be lost in confusion based upon my flip and the clues I've left.

I am hard-claiming Spymaster. I peeked HiFi N0 Villager, peeked rilla N1 Poisoner, peeked no one N2 because I just forgot, it was the weekend and I apologize (this is why I began to slank, in the hopes to get off another peek, which I did), peeked SMF N3 Healer. So HiFi, SMF, and I are all LACK CLAIRE. If you have any questions about this please ask. If the final wolf would like to CC I encourage him to do so. This means that mechanically, our PoE consists of Ong, Luco, lilrascal, Gator, MMM, and wuf. One of these six is our Poisoner. You know who you are. DO NOT CLAIM.

This is how I see the remainder of the game playing out:

D1: 8V/1W - Lynch Gator (P1) [W, we win; V, we move to N1]
N1: 7V/1W - Beck is NK'd, Poisoner must Poison within PoE.
D2: 6V/1W - Lynch P2, let P3 succumb to Poison. [W, we win; V's, we move to N2]
N2: 4V/1W - HiFi or SMF are NK'd (unless our wolf would like to risk shooting into the PoE for our Poisoner), Poisoner must Poison within PoE.
D3: 3V/1W - This is where it gets interesting. There will be two Clears alive, our Poisoner and HiFi, most likely. Meaning that we will lynch P4 and let P5 succumb to Poison, winning us the game.

As you can see, it is not possible for the remaining wolf to beat us with the number of clears we have. By the time he is able to kill all of the clears we will have already lynched/Poisoned through the PoE. This all operates under the assumption that SMF will no longer use his ability to Heal. The P#'s are just the remaining players from within the PoE. I did not provide an example, just placeholders, as to not reveal the identity of who I believe is the Poisoner.

I will be here with you all through the next night. Let's make the most of our time left together.

That is goot

Something tells me it's not gator.. He's wimming it up n will have to eat a lynch at some point so I just don't see him doing that as a wolf

I forgot to vote Gator, too. But I'm open to discussion now.

I only assumed Gator was the best lynch here because he's within the PoE and has hard-claimed Vanillager.

I like mechanical raisins

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Beck Novo

Alright, I've been mulling this over all day and I don't see any reason not to claim. Odds are likely that I could be NK'd tonight anyway, so I would rather explain myself now than be NK'd and have the village be lost in confusion based upon my flip and the clues I've left.

I am hard-claiming Spymaster. I peeked HiFi N0 Villager, peeked rilla N1 Poisoner, peeked no one N2 because I just forgot, it was the weekend and I apologize (this is why I began to slank, in the hopes to get off another peek, which I did), peeked SMF N3 Healer. So HiFi, SMF, and I are all LACK CLAIRE. If you have any questions about this please ask. If the final wolf would like to CC I encourage him to do so. This means that mechanically, our PoE consists of Ong, Luco, lilrascal, Gator, MMM, and wuf. One of these six is our Poisoner. You know who you are. DO NOT CLAIM.

This is how I see the remainder of the game playing out:

D1: 8V/1W - Lynch Gator (P1) [W, we win; V, we move to N1]
N1: 7V/1W - Beck is NK'd, Poisoner must Poison within PoE.
D2: 6V/1W - Lynch P2, let P3 succumb to Poison. [W, we win; V's, we move to N2]
N2: 4V/1W - HiFi or SMF are NK'd (unless our wolf would like to risk shooting into the PoE for our Poisoner), Poisoner must Poison within PoE.
D3: 3V/1W - This is where it gets interesting. There will be two Clears alive, our Poisoner and HiFi, most likely. Meaning that we will lynch P4 and let P5 succumb to Poison, winning us the game.

As you can see, it is not possible for the remaining wolf to beat us with the number of clears we have. By the time he is able to kill all of the clears we will have already lynched/Poisoned through the PoE. This all operates under the assumption that SMF will no longer use his ability to Heal. The P#'s are just the remaining players from within the PoE. I did not provide an example, just placeholders, as to not reveal the identity of who I believe is the Poisoner.

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TL;DR

Quote:

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I will be here with you all through the next night. Let's make the most of our time left together.

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In Siberia, time together make the most of you!

http://i.imgur.com/LYTgfcM.jpg

it's always gator. his tinfoil isn't actual tinfoil. he just listed off who bolded whom. somehow posts by rilla bid boog aubrey unrelated to rascal are supposed to make rascal a wolf.

K fine I didn't actually read thru gator I just took everyone's word he was wimming.

What about mmm? I've had him as clear all game but I don't really know why. Have I been pocketed?