Thanks philly! Even if we're both wrong with how to play these hands at least I can feel assured someone else knowledgeable would do the same.
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Thanks philly! Even if we're both wrong with how to play these hands at least I can feel assured someone else knowledgeable would do the same.
just read through the reads again, and in hand 1 idk if i would be barreling a fish as he's gonna be calling down with pretty much anything but checking behind all his middle pairs, so id just check/eval based on sizing on that hand. Against someone with Reggy-er stats then i would play it this same way that you did.
hand 1 - KQs. I disagree with your comment about the reg in the blinds that a "lot of his range is 77-TT". Especially when the whale calls, his range is going to be heaps wider with relative position and odds and whale-meat to feast on. Flop c-bet is obviously pretty bad into two opponents when the fish doesn't have a fold button. On the turn you can flag cardrunners EV and just figure it out for yourself (=SERIOUSLY, if you need a program to analyse this turn play then, well, i know you don't need a programm to do so), i think the turn barrel is fine with the A scare card + turned equity - check-decide is ok too. Anyway, once he raises and now you just have to count outs vs odds and implieds on the turn. You have 10 outs to the uber-nuts = you're getting direct pot odds = ez game.
hand 2 - KJo. Folding pre isn't awful - especially if you have post-flop spew issues - nor is 3-betting pre, nor calling. But do you consider all options? I don't really think that seeing a Q is better than seeing a T, but meh, whatever. Aggro on flops is a great read, but over only a few hands? Like, that means you probably have response to 3b stats that are meaningful? or, if the sample is that small then you are taking a big risk in reading too much into his play on two flops. I really don't like turn at all cos i don't really see him folding and you're smoked.
hand 3 - 99. Looks great to me. Seems that you're missing a bunch of flush draws from his range for getting to the turn.
Hand 1
-KQ I don't mind the cbet, and after turn its pretty straight forward. Can't fold or raise turn, gotta call.
Hand 2
-I can go either way on this. I'd like the c/r with KcJ better on a board where at least its conceivable you're repping something (Q42cc even > Q44cc) I'd imagine. If I'm going to play it this way though I'm for sure barelling turn and re-eval river.
Hand 3
-I like the turn barrel, given that all his 7x hands will now call again. THough Tx also makes up a ton of combos in ppl's ranges. (ie: if you look at the number of Tx hands that ppl perceive as playable, its larger than any other hand pretty much. Maybe Ax is close too)
Thanks guys!
Daven - I don't need the program to analyze anything, I just analyzed a bunch of hands yesterday in it.
KJo hand - yep considered all options and I RARELY flat anything in the blinds tbh but figured I would with a decent hand and good odds. I should have mentioned this earlier but he had raised first on the BU 2/3 times so his flop aggro was high on 10 flops. Not too much more reads but does definitely help. And Q44 board is > T44 board as far as the range I gave him and how often he hit directly on the flop. I do agree that Qhi is barely better and if you think about turn barreling cards then yeah you can say Thi is better.
As for everyone - would guys bet turn bigger in hand 3 if you barrel?
kmind I have no doubt you can turn a handsome profit from this staking deal -- 75k hands is a lot of time at the tables. from the outside looking in I think your biggest problem isn't fundamentally changing your game but persevering through the soul crushing losses without losing confidence in your ability to win and fearlessness to bluff turn/rivers when your opponents range is well defined.
no way, you still dont give good odds for flushes (i think) and this ensures that you keep in his lower pp's ....the turn sizing is one of the things i liked the most tbh....Quote:
Originally Posted by kmind
Cool. That was my intentions just seeing what you all though.Quote:
Originally Posted by philly and the phanatics
Vi - you are absolutely right. I actually did this stake for this very reason in that I get...scared...to lose so I wanted to prove it to myself really that I can play a ton of hands and be profitable. I'm running poorly right now so I have faith in my stake and I appreciate the kind words man!
1: Completely readless my second had at the table.
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (4 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Hero (SB) ($25.10)
BB ($23.32)
UTG ($25.50)
Button ($25)
Preflop: Hero is SB with 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif, 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif
2 folds, Hero bets $0.75, BB calls $0.50
Flop: ($1.50) 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif, 4http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif, 3http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $1.50, BB raises to $3, Hero calls $1.50
Turn: ($7.50) Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $4.50, Hero calls $4.50
River: ($16.50) 10http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $15.07 (All-In), Hero calls $15.07
Total pot: $46.64 | Rake: $2
2. Villain is playing 23/18 over 56 hands. His aggression frequency on the flop is 36% and on the turn 56%. I'm pretty sure this is an easy double barrel (I admit it) but what do we do on the river?
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (4 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Hero (UTG) ($46.67)
Button ($25.15)
SB ($25.10)
BB ($25)
Preflop: Hero is UTG with Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif, 10http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif
Hero bets $0.85, Button calls $0.85, 2 folds
Flop: ($2.05) 10http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif, 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif, 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $1.50, Button calls $1.50
Turn: ($5.05) Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $3.25, Hero calls $3.25
River: ($11.55) 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $6.75
3. Villain is playing 21/14 over 249 hands. He didn't seem like the best reg and has slow played sets/fast played a draw/and got it in with an overpair on a dry flop vs. a nit. I should be doing more calculations myself and I will but what do you guys think?
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (5 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
BB ($15)
UTG ($25.50)
MP ($7.31)
Button ($28.58)
Hero (SB) ($25.10)
Preflop: Hero is SB with Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif, Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif
2 folds, Button bets $0.75, Hero calls $0.65, 1 fold
Flop: ($1.75) 10http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif, Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif, 3http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $1.25, Hero calls $1.25
Turn: ($4.25) 3http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $2.75, Hero calls $2.75
River: ($9.75) Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $4.25, Hero folds
Total pot: $9.75 | Rake: $0.48
Hand 1 - easy flop 3bet and getting it in. Especially to a minraise.
Hand 2 - I don't hate the turn c/c. I can go either way on betting or c/c. River I'm pretty tempted to look this up.
Hand 3 -yah fold river.
Hand 3 yeah fold river but is turn OK too? A lot of people at these stakes have a pretty tight double barreling range.
And you won't believe what he had in Hand 1 and hand 2 yeah maybe a call on the river is correct. I plan to review these hands harder.
Griff - I merged my "update" posts in here into the "Stakes in Progress" thread. I hope you don't mind. I thought it would be easier to read having my send my updates there and HH/theory/whatever in here.
Bleh just had a frustrating day. I "think" i managed to only lose less than a buyin but was disconnected in a 350bbish pot that I lost and isn't showing in HEM. I am happy with how I played overall though and didn't tilt. I quit for a second at one point when I got frustrated but went back at it. May try again later.
I'm having trouble vs. double barrels by regs. This guy is 34/34 cbets 2/3 times over 38 hands. Steal% at 59%. Fold before river?
No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (4 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
UTG ($28.26)
Button ($37.14)
Hero (SB) ($27.98)
BB ($67.19)
Preflop: Hero is SB with Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif, 10http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif
1 fold, Button bets $0.75, Hero calls $0.65, 1 fold
Flop: ($1.75) 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif, Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif, 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $1, Hero calls $1
Turn: ($3.75) 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $3, Hero calls $3
River: ($9.75) Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $5.75, Hero folds
Total pot: $9.75
i wouldn't fold before the turn and could definitely find a call on the river. considering the smallish river betsizing he is repping almost exactly Ax, a narrow range considering he doesn't get to the river with all Ax he opens with and cbets on the flop, AND there are plenty of non Ax draws he could have been barreling on the turn that he would turn into a bluff on the river. he only needs to have a missed draw ~35% i think for a call to be profitable.
Hey Vi - appreciate the response! Yeah I definitely see what you are saying and a call makes a lot more sense now. It seems like everytime I've called preflop and hit TP or 2ndPTK I keep getting triple barreled into recently, and I usually fold the river (obv. thinking they won't fire river unless they have it).
What is your fold to flop cbet %, turn cbet % and then river cbet %?Quote:
Originally Posted by kmind
theres not a lot of draws he could have been barreling outside of Diamonds, and Adxd is a big portion of his drawing hands...so i like the river fold
I'm not sure...I'm on the laptop away from my main database. Remember though, most players at my stakes will have lower turn cbet%/river cbet% than your stakes.Quote:
Originally Posted by griffey24
philly - what about spades, T8, gutshots, etc?
Blah lost KK < QJo < AKo allin-pre for like 275bb. Didn't get hired for the only job interview I could find in like 8 months.
Is this too thin vs. an unknown?
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (5 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
SB ($20.56)
BB ($25)
UTG ($40)
MP ($30.74)
Hero (Button) ($25)
Preflop: Hero is Button with 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif, Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif
2 folds, Hero bets $0.75, SB calls $0.65, 1 fold
Flop: ($1.75) 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif, 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif, Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif (2 players)
SB bets $1.50, Hero calls $1.50
Turn: ($4.75) 10http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2.75, SB calls $2.75
River: ($10.25) Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $3
I think so, although the sizing seems optimal if you were to vbet this thin.
facepalm i thought the board was Ks 7c 7d....yea spades (which also gives him more Aces) ....i guess he can have 86 and T8, if you think hes doing it with the offsuit version of these hands then sure i guess you can find a call (mebe) but hes gonna have A9o also as well as K9, and basically every Asxs or Adxd, as well as obviously better kings and 7's.Quote:
Originally Posted by kmind
If you think he has the offsuit 86 and T8 then hes gonna have a fuck ton of 7's imo but idk (mebe not with this sizing?)
sorry to hear about the job interview, i know it sounds cliche but keep your head up, good things come to those who wait (god im like a walking hallmark card), but seriously, i do not have any real advice for you other than keep plugging at it (both poker and getting a jerb) you are a smart capable person so in the long run things will work out for sure. Also i agree with what alexos said about the last hand.
Appreciate it guys. Alexos - miss ya man :(. Philly - not cliche at all I appreciate all the kind words.
I prob play it same but reall kqhh and kjs are the only hands that pay you off there. Maybe QQ.
Searching for jobs is rough. Gl
Thanks iLuck (just kidding ;) ).
Alright a couple of hands:
1. Villain in this hand is playing 46/27 over 38 hands. Some specific reads is that he defends the bb with 65o/raises pre with QTs. He has also bet on the river with middle pair. Besides this, though, he has been fairly straightforward as in no bluffing/aggression with air.
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
BB ($16.63)
UTG ($11.17)
Hero (MP) ($25.25)
CO ($25)
Button ($47.22)
SB ($47.98)
Preflop: Hero is MP with Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif, Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif
1 fold, Hero bets $0.85, 3 folds, BB calls $0.60
Flop: ($1.80) 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif, 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif, Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.50, BB calls $1.50
Turn: ($4.80) 3http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $3.25, BB raises to $8.20, Hero raises to $22.90 (All-In)
2. This guy is playing 63/29 over 50 hands and has been pretty aggressive. I've gotten the best of him in recent hands. He's opened J9 and called a 3bet with it/defends A2. His aggression frequency is 68% on the flop. He has bluffed the river a couple of times as well as value bet(?) weak/bottom pairs.
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
UTG ($33.39)
MP ($25)
CO ($34.87)
Button ($16.42)
Hero (SB) ($42.13)
BB ($27.75)
Preflop: Hero is SB with Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif, Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif
1 fold, MP bets $0.75, CO calls $0.75, 1 fold, Hero raises to $4, 2 folds, CO calls $3.25
Flop: ($9) 10http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif, 3http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif, 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $5, CO raises to $30.87 (All-In), Hero?
Anyways, I'm working on a few things and hopefully will show a nice result with them. Mainly flop aggression/W$WSF, specifically in the BB.
next time you get a job interview you should ask on here for advice about a week in advance. Or do it now. Or just google 'preparing for a job interview'
if you want someone to look over your cv flick me a pm. I've done enough sorting cvs into bin/maybe/lets interview them piles over the years to know at least what one person looks for
1) I'm a bit worried about a flop c/c, turn c/r lines but u played it std
2) rly?!
hand 1 - fold to turn check-raise
hand 2 - snap
Thanks daven. Might just do that next time...definitely appreciate it.
And haha yeah so those hands are lame.
It's been like this all month, griff. Sorry man.
Hold'Em Manager Poker Tracking and Analysis Software
NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Full Tilt Game#27723559052
CardMaster53 ($21.33)
Suzano-0 ($25)
jigsawbasis ($24.07)
SuitsUs ($28.08)
Ryger Hytten ($20.87)
Pritzel ($47.87)
CardMaster53 posts (SB) $0.10
Suzano-0 posts (BB) $0.25
Dealt to SuitsUs 7h 7d
jigsawbasis raises to $0.57
SuitsUs calls $0.57
Ryger Hytten calls $0.57
Pritzel raises to $2.75
fold, fold, fold,
SuitsUs calls $2.18
Ryger Hytten calls $2.18
FLOP ($9.17) 7s 5h 8h
SuitsUs checks
Ryger Hytten bets $3.25
Pritzel folds
SuitsUs raises to $11
Ryger Hytten raises to $18.12 (AI)
SuitsUs calls $7.12
TURN ($45.41) 7s 5h 8h 6c
RIVER ($45.41) 7s 5h 8h 6c 4s
Ryger Hytten shows Ks Jc
(Pre 45%, Flop 3.0%, Turn 9.1%)
SuitsUs shows 7h 7d
(Pre 55%, Flop 97.0%, Turn 90.9%)
Ryger Hytten wins $21.57
SuitsUs wins $21.57
I don't like your last post.
But, hang in there.
Yeah I'm not tilted or anything trust me. It just kind of sucks to having losing days or what not being staked and having the staker think I'm just messing up. Maybe I'll do some 10k breakdowns after 10k hands.
In theory stake should take the pressure off Kmind. But I fully understand. 75k hands is a long time. Plus remember this is business proposition. Just worry about your end. Play some great poker and let the cards fall as they will.
!luck
77 pre-flop 1st call is fine, 2nd call is fucking awful if squeezer is the type of player to squeeze KJ here. And, meh, you didn't even lose money in that hand.
Get back to posting big pot hands like you did ages ago - remember that people found problems in your play in about 1/2 of them? why did you stop?
and as for feeling bad re runnnig bad in the stake. Don't. I've staked someone before. I did it because i thought i would make money on the deal. It was a gamble, sure, but i figured it was +EV so i took the odds. I'm certain griffey isn't stupid, so i'm confident that he knows this stake isn't guaranteed money, and may even lose a little. But I'm also confident he expects a profitable outcome, so is prepared to take that gamble. I could be wrong though. You can obviously feel bad if you play far below your capabilities though...
thoughts on set-mining oop in 3bet pots vs weak ranges?
also
bring it!Quote:
Originally Posted by kmizzzzzzzzzzles
Haha yeah I didn't lose that hand but I was 97% to win. Not going to be happy about that though I don't really care.
I almost never call 3bets, esp. with PP yet the crazy villain was a pretty good reason to call. Not to mention the squeezer was playing very tight so far. I'm not dumb.
I'm making money so far it's just frustrating not giving my staker more money because I'm down 5bi in EV and running worse with coolers.
Definitely don't think you're messing up kmizzle, just keep it up.Quote:
Originally Posted by kmind
Send me some hands if you want!
AJ is meh, not fistpumping. I might call turn c/r sometimes and call river brick. As played shoving can't be faulted.
AA hand is biggest snap ever.
It's a long grind, the variance will turn!
1. Dude is 33/7 over 56 hands. He has folded to a cbet 3/6 times. Has played pretty straightfoward as in no real bluffing. Just b/c turn?
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
MP ($25.60)
CO ($54.69)
Button ($24.58)
SB ($8.85)
Hero (BB) ($25.35)
UTG ($32.60)
Preflop: Hero is BB with Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif, Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif
2 folds, CO calls $0.25, Button calls $0.25, SB calls $0.15, Hero bets $1.75, CO calls $1.50, Button calls $1.50, 1 fold
Flop: ($5.50) 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif, 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif, 10http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif (3 players)
Hero bets $4.75, CO calls $4.75, 1 fold
Turn: ($15) 4http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $11
2. Guy is 38/25 over 52 hands. He's been very aggro postflop with a 73% aggro. frequency on the flop. That's basically all I have on him.
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
UTG ($19.74)
MP ($37.27)
CO ($11.15)
Button ($19.32)
SB ($25.12)
Hero (BB) ($30.48)
Preflop: Hero is BB with Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif, Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif
2 folds, CO calls $0.25, Button bets $1.10, 1 fold, Hero raises to $3.75, 1 fold, Button calls $2.65
Flop: ($7.85) 3http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif, 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif, 10http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $4, Button calls $4
Turn: ($15.85) 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks
River: ($15.85) 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks
Total pot: $15.85 | Rake: $0.79
3. This guy is 27/19 over 65 hands and steals 35% of the time. He's been pretty straightforward postflop too.
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (5 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Hero (SB) ($26.25)
BB ($16.40)
UTG ($32.94)
MP ($27.43)
Button ($9.15)
Preflop: Hero is SB with Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif, Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif
2 folds, Button bets $0.75, Hero raises to $2.75, 1 fold, Button calls $2
Flop: ($5.75) 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif, 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif, 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $23.50 (All-In)
1- yea, can go even bigger on turn
2-prefer c/shove flop vs him, as played id probably shove turn since we have lots of equity and its less than pot even
3-do not like, check or bet half pot both seem 10x better.
1) seems fine
2) What was turn plan if he bet? I don't mind checking down
3) I don't get this? b/calling or c/c? AK is better than a lot of hands in his range, and you have good odds vs all the hands that beat you even. Seems like a pretty good spot to c/c or c/bomb to me.
Alexos - why is bet half better in hand 3?
griffey - in hand 2 I was a tad confused and was probably c/f tbh :(. I'm not sure I understand what you are saying about hand 3 either.
H3 looks like crazy spew.
3- You get him to call with worse, you should probably bet 1/2 pot with all your range on this board, most of the time? Half pot three streets. So you basically give yourself more chances to fold out his 66 for example, whereas he will snap the flop if you just shove. Shoving just allows him to play perfectly, fold his air and call his pairs, that's why its pretty bad and doesn't make much sense overall.
I mean his stack size is a little over pot. I don't think it's crazy because if we bet we have to call anyways.Quote:
Originally Posted by !Luck
Ok I have a feeling you all missed his stack size? Hopefully?
hehe yeppp, my bad.. even with this stack size i just let him bluff it off though, they usually shove any 2Quote:
Originally Posted by kmind
Woooo
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
UTG ($31.99)
MP ($25)
CO ($18.57)
Button ($50.45)
Hero (SB) ($25)
BB ($28.65)
Preflop: Hero is SB with 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif, 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif
3 folds, Button bets $0.75, Hero calls $0.65, BB calls $0.50
Flop: ($2.25) Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif, 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif, Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif (3 players)
Hero bets $1.75, BB calls $1.75, Button raises to $4.25, Hero raises to $12, BB calls $10.25, Button raises to $49.70 (All-In), Hero calls $12.25 (All-In), BB calls $15.90 (All-In)
Turn: ($82.30) 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif (3 players, 3 all-in)
River: ($82.30) 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif (3 players, 3 all-in)
Total pot: $82.30 | Rake: $3
Results:
Button had 10http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif, Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif (one pair, Aces).
Hero had 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif, 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif (three of a kind, fives).
BB had Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif, 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif (one pair, sevens).
Outcome: Button won $7.30, Hero won $72
Yah.. are you guys on drugs with hand 3 lol.. he has $9 starting.. hence the c/c or c/shove >> shoving ourselves.
Why wuold you overbet shove, it makes no sense with this particular hand. He calls with every hand better than ours for sure, and folds most worse. Any worse he's not folding with (68, T8 type stuff), he's prob shoving if we check anyhow.
When we check with a bit more than pot size left, ppl sometimes shove with nonsense like JT, QJ, KJ all sorts of bs they might not call a shove with. I've seen weird stuff here thats for sure.
Seems like an easy c/c, or c/shove, depending what he bets. Def wouldn't c/f though.
Shoving would be good only if he'll never bluff here, and fold AQ AJ everytime to a shove. Both cases are definitely not true since from experience ppl shove like 75% of the time here with any 2, and can also call worse Ax sometimes
Yeah you guys are right. But you guys never c/f? He was an actual thinking shortstack and I feel like his range is somewhat tight.
why are you shoving then?
His range is tight? If he was so strong, why isn't he shoving pre?
Trust me from experience, and from +1 to alex's comment that people are shoving all sorts of disaster bs.
Like the guy guy peels pre with 45ss..and now we check and he thinks we're giving up cause we bricked and they shove. Pretty much shoving like half of their hands that have no chance in winning. People are probably even shoving Ax thinking that we'll fold AK/AQ or something.
Regardless of any of these things, I think your thought process is flawed somewhere. We have a board, with a particular hand that beats every possible bluff, but loses to every possible pair. So what is your shove folding? What is your shove getting called by?
I agree it's very poorly played. Tbh in hand I just thought "probably 6 outs and some FE let's shove". I agree completely with you guys though.
didnt notice stack size
congrats on winning that big pot, always such a rush when it actually holds and all their chips are belong to you
I think this is something pretty important and that I didn't consider fully until not that long ago.Quote:
Originally Posted by griffey24
I used to triple barrel "bluff" all the time. But there are lots of spots on rivers with hands like AQ/AK - A high that we probably could bluff with and get them to fold some % of their range. But realistically, the majority of their value range might call if we bet but check if we check. On the other hand, the majority of their bluffing range might bet if we check, so we beat their bluffs and take an extra bet from them.
I can't find a specific example right now. But something like, we're utg+1 and raise and button calls. We bet :5c::8c: :td: flop we double :kd: turn with :ah::qh: and they call and river :2s: we check and they bet. It's not a spot I expect him to have very many value hands at all (most of his very strong hands would have raised earlier given board), but he will have bricked out on a ton of hands that our hand beats.
That's a pretty interesting concept, griff. I'm sure I'll overuse this though and start being a calling station machine :)
Alright, ended a quick 200 hand session. Lost KK < 33 allin pre 100bb deep at least, then TT < 87s vs. a 17/11 MP raiser on a T96r board. Awesome. Will probably play again later but I saw myself call a 3bet I should have folded and that's just not right.
Saw your profit graph. Sexy. Keep Chin up.
Thanks dude! Chin is up, I just hate it for griffey (well, somewhat myself too as I do get some profit).
I think I'm going to do either 15k or 20k checkups to evaluate my own play and post some stats and stuff.
1. Guy is playing 30/27 over 103 hands. Folded 1 out of 2 times to a 3bet. He has NOT shown to be positionally aware so far, raising pretty evenly from all positions. He has a 56% aggro. frequency postflop and the river a 33% frequency. So far I have a note that he doesn't bet river light IP (in 1 hand though). He has checked strong before. I really feel like the river he has a value hand.
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Hero (MP) ($25)
CO ($20.42)
Button ($34.77)
SB ($14.25)
BB ($25)
UTG ($34.19)
Preflop: Hero is MP with Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif, Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif
UTG bets $0.75, Hero raises to $2.50, 4 folds, UTG calls $1.75
Flop: ($5.35) 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif, Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif, 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks
Turn: ($5.35) 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
UTG bets $3.50, Hero calls $3.50
River: ($12.35) Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif (2 players)
UTG bets $28.19 (All-In), Hero calls $19 (All-In)
Total pot: $50.35 | Rake: $2.51
2. Very first hand at the table so no reads. I feel like villain's half pot river bet means he doesn't have the Axss or a straight flush but should I ship?
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
UTG ($34.75)
MP ($27.57)
CO ($8.25)
Button ($25.13)
SB ($35.28)
Hero (BB) ($25)
Preflop: Hero is BB with Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif, 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif
1 fold, MP calls $0.25, CO calls $0.25, Button calls $0.25, SB calls $0.15, Hero checks
Flop: ($1.25) 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif, Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif, 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif (5 players)
SB bets $1, Hero calls $1, MP calls $1, 2 folds
Turn: ($4.25) 4http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif (3 players)
SB bets $3, Hero calls $3, MP calls $3
River: ($13.25) 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif (3 players)
SB bets $6.70, Hero?
3. Villain was reggy so far and was stealing in the CO/BU a lot while folding 1/1 times to a 3bet. Should I bet cbetting this board? I feel like he has JJ/TT/QQ (30%)/AK(30%)/AQ here and only TT is getting away. I'd have to fire 2 barrels. Once the turn hits can I actually call? What if he had check...check too?
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
BB ($33.85)
UTG ($52.64)
MP ($32.81)
CO ($25)
Hero (Button) ($25.35)
SB ($26.65)
Preflop: Hero is Button with 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif, 4http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif
2 folds, CO bets $0.75, Hero raises to $2.75, 2 folds, CO calls $2
Flop: ($5.85) 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif, Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif, Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
CO checks, Hero checks
Turn: ($5.85) 4http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif (2 players)
CO bets $3, Hero?
Hand 1) This hand is pretty useless imo :P There's no question here. The way you played it, this is the biggest snap ever. the only question is whether or not you should bet flop and I don't mind betting there, esp if he's the type that will 4bet AK from utg.
Hand 2) Can't raise since player behind you could have nuts, so just flat.
Hand 3) If you're gonna 3bet this hand, ofc cbet this flop. As played, I'd imagine he should be somewhat scared of a slow play here so his betting is odd. I'd prob spew raise here sometimes to rep a slow played flop. Folding is fine.
(reminding myself to go over a hand tomorrow)
Also, I suck. And I couldn't be more pumped.
H1: Tell me why you choose to 3 bet over flatting? It seems like this is more of a 3 bet bluff then a 3 bet for value. Correct me if im wrong.
Hand 1 was a bluff 3bet. Turned out it was value but that's not the point. I don't want to flat AJo here so I used it as a 3bet because of FE pre, FE on a lot of flops and because I can flop the best hand sometimes. I like 3betting in this spot vs. this type of player with hands that are sort of depolarized and can be used as semi-bluffs.
3betting is def more profitable than flatting given the positions in the AJ hand
Alright - I think I played a hand very poorly and will show griff privately. But, I was wondering what to do with AKo UTG against and unknown player at my stakes who 3bets us in the blinds. I usually flat and call/call/call with TP. Well, it's -EV to call when their range is QQ+/AK and their strategy is to cbet any flop, barrel any turn with TP+ and shove any river. Even when they have QQ and c/f turn everytime with an A/K on the flop. I think this is pretty important at 25NL where we see a lot of 3bet ranges QQ+/AK in this situation and a lot of times even tighter.
yeah babyQuote:
Originally Posted by kmind
*Gross update alert*
I haven't thrown up for over a year and that was barely anything. Before that it, it was literally about another 10 years. I drank NO alcohol last night but drank a ton of soda/ate a ton of junk food to the point I literally got no sleep throwing up at least 10 times and diarrheaing a ton of times too. I still can't get to sleep and every 15 minutes or so I have to go back to diarrhea. Really gross I know but I have NEVER been this sick in my life. I also had 1 hour of sleep 3 nights ago and two nights ago 7hrs for a total of 8 hours in 3 days. I'm miserable right now :(
sorry bud, movies and weed are the only cure i know of for something like that
damn dude.. sounds like food poisoning of some sort. hope you feel better!
can we get a stat check kmizzle?
how many big hands would you say you play per session?..how many all-ins etc?
Yeah I can do that. I updated the staking thread. I was going to wait until like 20k hands but I can post what I have later tonight.
Griff I'll post all-in hands tomorrow. I can barely even post these stats as getting on the computer is making me sick. Sorry man, I'll play catch up.
http://img706.imageshack.us/img706/3...atcheckup1.png
http://img94.imageshack.us/img94/5599/statcheckup12.png
http://img843.imageshack.us/img843/1...tcheckup13.png
My first instinct is that you can probably loosen up a bit on the button. Start opening more hands, especially if they are folding to steals often.
Your wtsd seems low, won at SD seems high and river call efficiency seems verrry high.
This could be a sign of folding too much, or folding hands that could be good and only calling hands you really KNOW are good.
What is your fold to 3bet %?
Missing value and calling down too light. Grrr.
Griff - 72% fold to 3bet. Sorry I missed you AIM. I continued puking last night and have barely had anything to eat in the past 2 days. Every hour or so I still have to use the bathroom. Sorry man.
Go to the doctor dude. sounds like some sort of virus or something.
hope you feel better soon.. but even in your sickness at least you can take solace in knowing you're winning again! good work man!
Thanks Vi! I'm interested in reading about your new adventure which seems incredible! I'll be more involved with your blog for sure.
Quick update - I'm still feeling awful. I felt 85% healthy yesterday, ate something and ever since have been back to like 40%. I'm getting frustrated. Tried playing a session today and ended up just playing like pure crap because I was just sick of not feeling good, being hungry, feeling full, not being able to play in my bball game tonight (or do anything tbh...haven't been outside since Sunday), and running like shit in poker. Here's hoping I can play a session tonight because although there's no timeline, I really do owe it to griff to play more and I've fallen behind.
Off to bed.
1k hands @ +ev > 10k hands @ -ev
Been seeing you at the tables lately, but you always ignore me. :(
What's your sn? I've been really tilted lately tbh (for me) and have lashed out in a couple of chats but other than I try to ignore the chat.
Whatcha mean?Quote:
Originally Posted by !Luck
Means focus on profitability over volume.
Kind of upset at the end of my day today. I got sick again (this time a cold) so wanted to play a good amount of hands but not too many. Went up 2 buyins and right as I was closing I wound up with 2 hands that dropped my total to only up a half buyin. One I probably could have saved myself $7 on.
This guy was a fish and pretty aggressive. I thought twopair+ and draws would raise the flop. I think I played this pretty well except maybe betting the turn harder.
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Button ($25)
SB ($26.44)
BB ($26.55)
Hero (UTG) ($25)
MP ($27.39)
CO ($23.60)
Preflop: Hero is UTG with Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif, Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif
Hero bets $0.85, 2 folds, Button calls $0.85, SB calls $0.75, 1 fold
Flop: ($2.80) 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif, Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif, 10http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2, 1 fold, SB calls $2
Turn: ($6.80) 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $4.75, SB calls $4.75
River: ($16.30) 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif (2 players)
SB bets $7, Hero calls $7
Total pot: $30.30 | Rake: $1.51
Bahhh the main guy was a Reg. looking player over 40ish hands. I think I should probably c/f postflop?
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
CO ($61.12)
Button ($4.59)
Hero (SB) ($28.48)
BB ($25.07)
UTG ($25)
MP ($35.85)
Preflop: Hero is SB with Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif, Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif
2 folds, CO bets $0.75, Button calls $0.75, Hero raises to $3.50, 1 fold, CO calls $2.75, Button raises to $4.59 (All-In), Hero calls $1.09, CO calls $1.09
Flop: ($14.02) 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif, 4http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif, 4http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif (3 players, 1 all-in)
Hero bets $7, CO calls $7
Turn: ($28.02) Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif (3 players, 1 all-in)
Hero checks, CO checks
River: ($28.02) 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif (3 players, 1 all-in)
Hero checks, CO checks
Total pot: $28.02 | Rake: $1.40
H1: I bet more on flop and turn
H2: I would check flop unless you think u can get him off tt-QQ.
Hand 1 - probably call
Hand 2 - you have to size preflop, so that if shorty jams you can come back over the top.
Fuck it, I'm holding myself to make an attempt at a decent 4k post. I'm struggling right now at the tables but I'm playing alright, obviously can improve.
I'm a little late but this has been the reasoning for lack of updates. I have decided what to write my 4k post about and should have the whole thing done by tomorrow hopefully. I was actually planning on having it done by today :(. Anyways, I cannot decide on if I should do it in video format or just an article. I believe it will just be a written article. I'll get back to this at the end of the post.Quote:
Originally Posted by kmind
These past few weeks have been bleh to say the least; volume AND results wise. I finally tilted yesterday after focusing too much on the all-in EV/actual money gap in my graph. By tilted, I still believe I made pretty good plays but I got in 3 large pots vs. a regular who 3bets me literally 100%. There's a time and a place for reg. wars and being staked isn't it. I was fortunate to win 2 flips for stacks and lost like 80bb in the other pot with second pair < top pair in a 3bet pot.
I've been studying a lot which is always nice, especially if I haven't been putting in the volume. I've mainly been studying for the article but also looking at a few spots such as 3betting UTG raisers with AKs/QQ and stuff like that just to prove to myself to stop doing that crap.
In real life news, I need to eat healthier! Also drink healthier! I have gotten in some real bad habits and have let myself go a little bit by not exercising enough and eating mainly junk food and having all the soda I want. Bleh. I've ordered a new "Eat to Live" book as I cannot find my old one and MIGHT attempt p90x again, though it will be hard with Thursday night basketball games and Tuesday night dodgeball; not to mention traveling a ton. I'll also most likely use myfitnesspal.com again which I think is great.
Ok back to the article. It's probably VERY simplistic to most players and it focuses on the micros. It will involve microstakes cbetting. But not just the basics, but what kind of ranges we see vs. different players, how often a cbet needs to work, double barreling, how often double barreling needs to work in conjunction with the cbet, floating vs. c/raising flop, isolating limpers, what reads/stats we should look at, etc. To be honest, it may not help any of you and that's fine because this was mainly just to help me out as I still struggle but also to help anyone out there who needs it.
I will provide screen shots of the results for each section as well.
I look forward to your article on Cbetting. Creating a solid basic approach to Cbetting is one of the goals that I have to achieve before moving up to 10NL. I am sure your article will be useful for me.
Cheers,
P
Stop thinking about being staked vs not being staked. Whether or not you're staked should have no bearing on the decisions you make during your play. If you think getting into a reg war in a particular spot is +EV, or the most +EV decision at the time, then do it! You should always be making the best decisions regardless of the staking condition.Quote:
Originally Posted by kmind
GL on the article, interested in reading it!
I'm looking forward to reading your 4k post and I expect to learn something new. Also you're right about not 3betting QQ/AK IP versus the typical nitTAG reg when they open UTG since their 4bet/call range is strongly weighted to AK/KK+, making getting it in preflop very marginal because they rarely 4b bluff. I've got to be more conscious of not making this mistake!
4k Post
Microstakes cbetting is different compared to higher levels. Because of this, the main focus of this article will be on solely the microstakes, with maybe a few things higher stake players can take to their own games. So if you are at small stakes and above, this may not be for you.
There are a number of ways I can think of when deciding on how to study the concept of cbetting. At first it seemed like a simple and easy subject, but once you grasp all of the basic little concepts that make up the whole spectrum then there’s a ton to think about. I will not be going over every little thing and will most likely miss some important areas. However, I will be focusing on a few things I bet a lot of microstakers either do not know about or just do not care to study.
When first going over cbetting, I wanted to look over the best board textures where I had the most success, or I should say, had villain fold the most. One way of doing this was to look at Hold’em Manager and filtering certain flops. It quickly became apparent that there were only so many filters I could do and I really could not get all the flops I wanted.
Anyways, here are the results from my database:
Ahi not paired mono/rainbow/tt: 47.4%
K hi: 51.4%
Q hi: 47.4%
J hi: 46.3%
T hi: 39.6%
Sure, not too much can be taken from this but the options were limited. To thirst my ADHD mind, I changed a few things and checked out what positions I cbet the most in. It needs to be noted that I only have a smallish sample size for all of this and just because I cbet in these positions does not mean it’s correct. Regardless, here are my findings on what positions I cbet in:
UTG: 64%
UTG+1: 65%
CO: 65%
BU 67%
SB: 67%
BB: 69%
This was very surprising. I had always thought we should be cbetting more in EP as our range should be strongest. The only really thing I can think of is that the ranges we face when UTG will also be strong but as we get closer to the BU villains’ ranges will be much weaker. It still does not make complete sense but because this is the microstakes, we should be focused more on their range than what we represent I guess.
Board Textures
Alright, so what you guys want are some board textures and how different ranges hit them. All board textures will be on the flop only. I will let you all look at this and come up with some more conclusions.
Parameters: Flush draw, OESD, Pair+any draw and TP+ are used as “hitting” the flop. Tt = two-toned, m = monotone, r = rainbow and sometimes I just added the suits.
Vs. 35% PFR (AA-22,AKo-A2o,KQo-K9o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o,98o,87o,AKs-A2s,KQs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s,87s,76s,65s):
Flops:
Type 1 (23% or less): Kh5c4h, K52r, JJ2r, Q55r, Q53r, KJ4r, 552tt, 732r, Q72r, J73r, 733, 884tt, K33r, K32tt, 862r, KQ8r
Type 2 (under 30%): J43tt, J75r, Q74tt, Qc5h4h, AATtt, , 963r, Qh8h7c
Type 3 (under 38%): AJ5r, A75tt, QhTh5c, 873r, Th7c5h, 8c6h3h, ATTr, A54r, A85r, A53r, AQ5r, QJJr
Type 4 (under 45%): Ac3h2h, KJ52m, 983r, 977tt, 7h6c3h, 9h6c3h, 984r, JT2r, AJ4tt, A84tt, AcKh3h, Ah9h7c
Type 5 (46%+): AJhTh, QhTh9c, 988r, Q76m, 9h8c7h, Th9h6c, AcKhQh, 4h3h2c
Conclusion: Rainbow, K-rag-rag and paired boards rarely hit their range. Jhi and Qhi, even two toned, rarely hit their range as well. Axx and middle/drawy boards hit their range very well.
As PFR vs. IPreg (JJ-22,AQo,KQo,AQs-AJs,KQs,QJs,JTs):
Flops:
Type 1 (23% or less): KhJh3c, TT4tt, T65r, 992r, QQ5r, Q22r, 885r, Th5c2h, J54r, AT6r, A74r, A77r, AJ6r, J84r
Type 2 (under 30%): AQQtt, 9c7h4h, KJ7tt, AT9tt, 977tt, 887r
Type 3 (under 38%): Qc8h6h, Jh9h5c, QJ2r, Q42r, Q87r, 853tt, Q65r
Type 4 (under 45%):
Type 5 (46%+): 9h8h6c, 8h7h5c, QhTh8c, 652r, 653m, KcJhTh
Conclusion: Khi and having 2 broadway cards don’t hit their range much. Middle and drawy boards, again, crush their range.
Vs. 12% PFR:
Flops
Type 1 (23% or less):
Type 2 (under 30%): 833r, KK8tt, Tc7h3h, JJ3tt, T43tt
Type 3 (under 38%): J64r, Jc8h5h, KcJh7h, J73r, Q72r, Ah6c5h, Q86r, K43tt, 843r
Type 4 (under 45%): 763r, A42r, A86tt, 622tt, 732tt
Type 5 (46%+): KhQc9h, KQTr, 8h7c5h, J98r, QJ4r, AT8m, AcQhJh
Conclusion: Ouch. This range hits on a ton of boards. This should show that it’s not good to bluff nits.
Vs. 18% PFR (AA-22,AKo-ATo,KQo-KJo,QJo,AKs-A2s,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs):
Flops
Type 1 (23% or less): KK4r, 994r, 922r
Type 2 (under 30%): 852r, K74r, 442r, 733r, AA4r, K72r, KKJtt, 9h4h3c, 998r, K83r, KJ7r, Q63r
Type 3 (under 38%): 9h6c5h, Kh3c2h, A33r, 9c7h4h, Kh6c3h, 9h6c3h, Jh8c6h, Kh7c6h, Jh6h4c, QJ4r, Jh7c5h, Kh5h2c, 753tt
Type 4 (under 45%): A99tt, Ah9h3c, AcKh7h, A32r, KQ9r, Ac9h7h, KT4tt
Type 5 (46%+): QcTh9h, Th9h7c, AhQhJc, KQTr
Conclusion: The range hits on less boards than the 12%er but it still hits a fair amount. Paired boards are the best again as well as Khi. Axx and middle/drawy boards hit this range a lot.
Vs. 50% PFR (AA-22,AKo-A2o,KQo-K8o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J8o,T9o-T8o,98o-97o,87o-86o,76o-75o,65o-64o,54o,AKs-A2s,KQs-K5s,QJs-Q7s,JTs-J7s,T9s-T7s,98s-97s,87s-85s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s-53s,43s-42s,32s):
Flops
Type 1 (23% or less): 942r, KQ8tt, Q95tt, K82r, K52r, Q52r, KQ5tt, 722r, Q73tt, KJ2r, Q93s, 996s, Q42r
Type 2 (under 30%): J43tt, J77r, AT4r, AJ3r, T77r, AT2tt, KT8r
Type 3 (under 38%): A42tt, A76tt, A75r, 965tt, A63tt, A88r, T94tt
Type 4 (under 45%): A54m, 964m
Type 5 (46%+): T87m, JT9tt, 986tt, AJTtt, 975tt
Conclusion: This person is nuts but what can you do. I made him the PFR but he could be the PFC just note I have the monsters in there. A ton of boards whiff his range but once you start seeing Axx then it really hits. Two toned boards aren’t as scary anymore! Finally!
I’m also going to link this great post from 2+2 that shows just how infrequently people have draws. It’s pretty informative: COTW: Thinking About Combos - Micro Stakes Full Ring Games - Micro Stakes Poker Strategy Forum
Raise Flop vs. Floating
When facing a PFR, we should have a plan PREFLOP on how we want to proceed given different variables such as the PFR’s tendencies, board texture and how often certain plays need to work. To combat these openers, we usually will raise or float cbets. The certain reads and stats that we need to be cognitive about here are what type of preflop range we gave them, how often they cbet, how often they double barrel and how often they will fold to aggression.
Here are some of the combinations of stats we can use to exploit them:
- If they have a loose preflop range and the board texture rarely hits them then they should be very weak
- If they cbet too much and check/fold a lot of turns then we should float them more often because his range becomes very unbalanced
- If they cbet too much AND double barrel too much then we should be more inclined to raise their flop bet because his range is still balanced and we’ll be folding a TON of turns (bye bye red line)
First, let’s talk about raising a flop cbet. Let’s say it’s UTG vs UTG+1 (Hero) and the pot is $2.05 and they cbet 2/3 pot ($1.37). If we raise to 2/3 pot ($4.56) then it needs to work about 60% of the time using 4.56/7.97 (please, God, tell me I’m right). So if we think they are cbetting too often and folding too much to a raise (60%+) because of the board texture and our image, then yes we should think about raising. On the other hand, we should consider floating.
Floating is a great play vs. people who cbet too much and check back the turn as if surrendering the pot. To consider floating, we need to think about a plan STARTING on the flop (we should consider if a float is possible preflop too). So let’s say our strategy is to call the flop and always bet the turn 2/3 if checked to and always fold if bet into. If this is the case, using the same parameters as the paragraph above and he cbets 2/3 pot, then this chart shows you how often he needs to be firing that second barrel and how often he actually check/folds to our turn bet. Keep in mind that in the 0% equity chart we always lose obviously, but in the 26% equity chart, even if we do hit on the turn OR river, the action is always checked down and each player gets their equity share of the pot. I did this for simplicity’s sake though it probably sounds confusing. Just know that in reality, we’d obviously get paid off more once we hit so the real EV is actually GREATER than what the chart shows.
(The Y-axis is how often he needs to be betting the turn and the X-xis is how often he needs to c/c. So, the less he bets the turn and the less he c/c the greater EV for us. For example, using the 0% equity graph, if there's either a 25% chance he bets the turn OR when he checks he will call a 2/3 bet 20% of the time, then the EV is +0.9317)
0% Equity:
http://i935.photobucket.com/albums/a...at0equity2.png
26% Equity:
http://i935.photobucket.com/albums/a...t26equity2.png
Isolating Limpers and Cbetting
In this situation, we will be conducting research on how often we can isolate a limper and cbet given this is our plan 100% of the time with 100% of our range. Not completely realistic but it gives us a better idea on how to proceed in this spot. The main thing in this example is that we are IP at 25NL and we face only 1 limper. We then isolate him preflop to $1 (that’s slightly less than pot) and NO ONE calls/raises after us besides the limper. This part is crucial because you have to take into account the players behind you unless they are really nitty.
The range I am giving the limper is: TT-22,AJs-A2s,KJs-K2s,QJs-Q2s,JTs-J2s,T9s-T2s,98s-95s,87s-85s,76s-74s,65s-63s,54s-52s,43s-42s,32s,AQo-A2o,KQo-K2o,QJo-Q4o,JTo-J7o,T9o-T7o,98o-97o,87o-86o,76o-75o,65o-64o,54o (65% of hands).
(The Y-axis is how often he limp/calls and the X-axis is, depending on how often he limp/calls preflop, how often he calls a cbet. For example, if he limp/calls 66% of the time and calls a cbet only 40% of the time, then the EV is +0.2062)
http://i935.photobucket.com/albums/a...1/isocbet2.png
As you can see from this chart, you can’t just blindly punish limpers all the time. But, this does not mean you should throw this play out. Once we become better at looking at preflop reads and knowing board textures it becomes evident that there will be lots of players folding a decent amount preflop as well as those folding to most flops. From the chart, these players make for a +EV play!
Double Barreling
Double barreling should be a weapon in everyone’s arsenal. Most players know this; however, they are not quite comfortable in knowing how or why to do it. Some key reads and stats are how often they fold to cbets, how often they fold to double barrels, how likely are they to bluff, etc. What the charts below show are the percentage someone calls a flop cbet and then the percentage they need to call a second barrel. I should have made the numbers show the FE instead of the call% but just reverse each number if you want to know the FE you need. This is VERY important, these numbers ONLY count if our plan on the FLOP is to double barrel. So we cannot just get to the turn and say “Hmm…maybe I will double barrel this board”. You have to be certain. This is good, too, because you should always be looking ahead in the hand. Here are the situations I created, and I made sure to show the numbers when he calls greater than 60% of the time on the flop because if he’s folding more than that then the flop bet will always be profitable and the double barreling situation would then focus more on the actual turn bet. Basically, it would be a slightly different situation.
- We have either 0%, 19% or 34% equity on the flop
- We cbet 2/3 pot
- If we hit a straight on EITHER the turn or river then the hand is checked until the end
- When we do not hit on the turn, we ALWAYS bet 2/3 pot on any turn
- The river is always checked
(The Y-axis is how often he calls the cbet and the X-axis is how often he calls the turn bet. For example, using the 0% equity graph, if he calls a flop cbet 78% of the time and calls a turn bet 60% of the time after calling the cbet, the EV is -0.6782)
0% Equity:
http://i935.photobucket.com/albums/a...el0equity2.png
19% Equity:
http://i935.photobucket.com/albums/a...checkdown2.png
34% Equity:
http://i935.photobucket.com/albums/a...checkdown2.png
Now, for the “finale” situation, the chart below will show a more realistic example for when we have 19% equity on the flop. We have 54o vs. AQo on a Q87r flop. We double barrel 100% of the time and he calls the turn 70% of the time when we actually hit the straight (the chart below will show you how often he needs to call when we don’t hit on the turn). Also when we hit on the turn, he calls a 2/3 river bet 80% of the time. In contrast, when we do not hit a straight on the turn but we hit either three of a kind or better on the river, he will call a 2/3 bet 50% of the time.
http://i935.photobucket.com/albums/a...ealequity2.png
Some random thoughts
The tools used in this article are Flopzilla for finding how flops hit ranges and CardRunnersEV for the calculations. Another great feature of Flopzilla is that it calculates the percentage certain ranges will hit a flop as a preflop raiser. For example, it says a range of 12% (AA-22,AKo-AJo,KQo,AKs-ATs,KQs,QJs,JTs) will hit the flop with an OESD, FD, Pair+draw and TP+ 39.8% of the time. That’s a lot! But for this article, I think it’s better to look at wider ranges and how often they hit. This will help us in forming wider ranges, such as when we are on the BU, that flop good equity. Having more equity in any bet is always a great thing. Here are a few widish ranges I created and their flop equity:
1. AA-22,AKo-ATo,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,AKs-A2s,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs – 37.3%
2. AA-22,AKo-ATo,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,AKs-A2s,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s (added suited connectors) – 36.9%
3. AA-22,AKo-A2o,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,AKs-A2s,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs (added Axo but no SC) – 33.5% (not that adding unsuited cards gives us a wider range though than the suited connectors)
4. AA-22,AKo-A8o,KQo-K9o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o,AKs-A2s,KQs-K8s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T9s – 35.3% (this range makes up the same amount as range #3)
5. AA-22,AKo-A2o,KQo-K9o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o,AKs-A2s,KQs-K2s,QJs-Q7s,JTs-J9s,T9s – 32.8% (this range is 35% of all hands)
6. AA-22,AKo-A2o,KQo-K9o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o,98o,87o,76o,AKs-A2s,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs-J9s,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s – 32.3% (this range is also 35% of all hands…so not much difference in flop equity)
There is no conclusion at this point and it's on purpose. I am still wondering if it's best to come up with what I, personally, found or leave it up in the air for everyone to kind of mix and match a few ideas.
Haven't read it yet.. but will read soon.. you weren't messin' around with your 4k post, nice :)
tl:dr Cbet moar :)
gonna read this later when I have time, nice commitment Casey.
your post explores the nuances and numerically defines parameters for poker truisms most of us who have put in 500k+ hands intuitively appreciate.
the sheer volume of information included in this post is both a strength (detailed instruction on multiple 'standard' situations) and a weakness (I'd have to take an adderol to read it in its entirety and retain the information). lol, sorry if that comes off harsh -- it's not meant to be. I would appreciate it if you could reformat the post to make it more reader friendly. The easier it is to read, the more we can get out of it!
griffey - thanks man! I'll be on AIM for any questions and maybe I'll just post them here just in case others have the same questions
jyms - it KILLED me not being able to congratulate you on your 2011 graph! Now that I have my 4k post I can say CONGRAAAAATS YOU DESERVE IT! Really appreciate that response as it really did take me a good amount of time.
Vi - You're the man! I didn't take that as a harsh comment at all. In fact, before your post or anyone else posted I wanted to say that if anyone has advice on how to make it a better read OR on situations they want to look at more carefully to please let me know. How exactly do you think it would be easier to read? I could split each section into a separate post so then you could read 1 post/concept at a time but I'm sure that would change much? Please let me know and I'll also look for some ideas.
lol sick post, must have taken you a while so I'll def. read it later.
:heart:! Appreciate it; means a lot to have anyone read this much less higher stakes guys giving it the time.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alexos
Preliminary comments:
I think my positional cbet is definitely higher EP than on the button.
Our range is the strongest, and it's also harder to play the pot by giving up initiative (ie: c/c). Also, checking OOP does not control the pot, while checking on the button does. This, if anything, is a big reason to have a lower cbet on the button. Not to mention our range being much weaker on the button.
Yeah, agreed and I did address this in the post ;). Keep in mind this is for us micro-ers :)Quote:
Originally Posted by griffey24