Varchertine's Werewolf Game Thread

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

It's hard to believe that only I can see how obvious a wolf baudib is.

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I'm fairly convinced baud is a W... I'm even getting convinced rilla is W on read-through. I'm not sure I can reconcile that I don't really think they're both wolves at the moment, but I'm in the exploratory phase of my read, so all conclusions are soft.

If baud does flip V, though... ong... you can't live past tomorrow.

There's no way you two are V-V after all this time and can't clear each other even a little bit.

I still think he could be a wolf, but when you look at the Boog wagon it is very pure as Baud said on D2 and more so today. He could have this info as a wolf.

I'm just trying to keep an open mind and looking into all of the possibilities.

I haven't seen much from Boog, which is disappointing.

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Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

I'm fairly convinced baud is a W... I'm even getting convinced rilla is W on read-through. I'm not sure I can reconcile that I don't really think they're both wolves at the moment, but I'm in the exploratory phase of my read, so all conclusions are soft.

If baud does flip V, though... ong... you can't live past tomorrow.

There's no way you two are V-V after all this time and can't clear each other even a little bit.

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I don't think rilla would turn on baudib if they're w/w, I think rilla's hand would be forced and he'd just flat out insist baudib is a villager.

Yes I'll need to go if both baudib and rilla are wolves. I can afford to be wrong about baudib and bink rilla, that would be lucky. But yeah I'd need to go if they're v/v, I won't argue and will just hope rascal is wolfing.

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Originally Posted by lilrascal

I still think he could be a wolf, but when you look at the Boog wagon it is very pure as Baud said on D2 and more so today. He could have this info as a wolf.

I'm just trying to keep an open mind and looking into all of the possibilities.

I haven't seen much from Boog, which is disappointing.

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It doesn't matter how "pure" the boog wagon is. One minute we're being led to believe that wolves will just leave him hanging until the last hour, then make ballsy late plays to save him. But the next I'm hearing that his wagon was pure, that they're not actively trying to bus him.

If a villager is getting mislynched by the village, wolves will naturally try to stay off it. It's not that uncommon to see a mislynch with all villagers on the wagon, and it's usually the result of good wolfing.

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

I even said why I wasn't on wuf. Baudib was on wuf, and I was suggesting he was going to bus him and use his wolf flip to push for boog's lynch.

I can see exactly what they were trying to do. The fact baudib came out with an instant boog vote is hugely telling. Villagers do not react to a wolf flip like that. Villagers do not make instant votes because they are not certain what the flip will be. Villagers absorb wolf flips. Baudib did not absorb the wuf flip, he just carried on with his plan.

baudib

is

a

wolf







always

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I disagree with the bolded. By that logic, we have 4 wolves based on the D1 lynch. Gabe was lynched in #777, BID voted Boog in #778, Ong voted Daven in #780, Monstr voted Baud in #788 and Luco voted Daven in #789.

An early vote when it's not must lynch can always be changed, so it's not role indicative.

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

I can afford to be wrong about baudib and bink rilla, that would be lucky.

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The village can afford it, but you can't.

I'm >600 posts behind. My bad. Gonna dedicate the next couple of hours to WW. If I post something in response to something that's already been covered, it's because I'll be doing so without reading everything yet.

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Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

The village can afford it, but you can't.

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You realise this doesn't make sense, right? Why would a baudib wolf flip look any better for me than a rilla wolf flip, in terms of village cred? They're both worth exactly the same.

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Originally Posted by lilrascal

I disagree with the bolded. By that logic, we have 4 wolves based on the D1 lynch. Gabe was lynched in #777, BID voted Boog in #778, Ong voted Daven in #780, Monstr voted Baud in #788 and Luco voted Daven in #789.

An early vote when it's not must lynch can always be changed, so it's not role indicative.

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Well when I saw wuf was a wolf, something I was expecting, I still went to page 1 and started reading before slamming into baudib, even though baudib did exactly what I expected him to do. I absorbed the flip. baudib didn't.

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Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

The village can afford it, but you can't.

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Huh???

I must admit I kinda feel sorry for bigred. He starts playing again and this is easily the biggest game we've had in some time. Only d3 and over 2k posts. It's easy to moan at him, but once you fall behind in this one, it's uphill all the way.

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

You realise this doesn't make sense, right? Why would a baudib wolf flip look any better for me than a rilla wolf flip, in terms of village cred? They're both worth exactly the same.

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Calm down and reflect. It makes perfect sense.

You have gone all-in saying baud is W.
Baud has gone all-in saying you are W.
Neither of you is arguing against the team, your arguments are against the individual.

Ong and baud are both too smart and too strong and too active to have pegged each other completely wrong.

You have rigidly defined yourselves as a non-V-V grouping.

I realise it might not seem it, but I'm perfectly calm. It's 3.30am and I have my bong.

My point is that results only matter to my ego. If I'm wrong about baudib but bink rilla, well it sucks for me personally, but it's worth exactly the same to my team as baudib flipping wolf. In fact I would be amused, because it would really piss rilla off to go like that.

OK, it makes perfect sense to me.

It's a wrinkle that you'd bus rilla via baud for busing wuf, but I think the two of you could concoct it.

As I said, I'm giving soft reads until I state otherwise.

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

That's the kind of cheeky shit I'd try and pull. But you're not thinking about that. Why? Because that's what a villager would be thinking.

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You said this to boog on #1470. I find it ironic because you self-lynched yourself and I thought the same thing about how you would self-lynch as a wolf, then quickly rescind, then claim that now you're a lock villager because of what you did. I thought if you are a wolf - that was a poorly executed plan.

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Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

@BID: Are you still solid on Ong?
I read his tone this game as far more sincere and direct than when I self-lynched against him and key.

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#1486... At this point, I'm fence-sitting on ong. I find myself literally flipping back and forth on him

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Originally Posted by baudib

MMM/BID: If I get lynched you'll need to carry the ball. Ong cannot be trusted. He's either so far off his game he believes Boog is cleared based on nothing, or he's a wolf playing a very strong game.

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I don't appreciate fear mongering. It doesn't help your argument.

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

It doesn't matter how "pure" the boog wagon is. One minute we're being led to believe that wolves will just leave him hanging until the last hour, then make ballsy late plays to save him. But the next I'm hearing that his wagon was pure, that they're not actively trying to bus him.

If a villager is getting mislynched by the village, wolves will naturally try to stay off it. It's not that uncommon to see a mislynch with all villagers on the wagon, and it's usually the result of good wolfing.

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LOL at all of this.

of course it matters how pure the Boog wagon is.

when one wagon is a villager and is proven to be wolf-ridden in a tight vote, when the other wagon is pure it's going to be a wolf wagon.

Ong pretending he doesn't understand the most basic of wagonomics is hysterical.

Boog should be turbo lynched for this fact ALONE.

add to it the CFD, Boog and Wuf managing to avoid voting for each other even in self-pres, well you just don't get any easier lynches than this.

wolves do not trip over themselves in a tight vote if it's not a high-leverage situation. ever.

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Originally Posted by baudib

LOL at all of this.

of course it matters how pure the Boog wagon is.

when one wagon is a villager and is proven to be wolf-ridden in a tight vote, when the other wagon is pure it's going to be a wolf wagon.

Ong pretending he doesn't understand the most basic of wagonomics is hysterical.

Boog should be turbo lynched for this fact ALONE.

add to it the CFD, Boog and Wuf managing to avoid voting for each other even in self-pres, well you just don't get any easier lynches than this.

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If the wolves were in favor of gabe/rong (they obv were), then why would they vote on Boog/monstr, the counter-wagon?
I really don't follow the "pure wagon" argument.

You're giving a lot of credit to D1 villager randomness falling on the correct target.

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Originally Posted by BankItDrew

You said this to boog on #1470.

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Incorrect.

Rilla is just inexplicably slow this game and apparently 2 days worth of reading behind somehow.

but the beauty of this format is that there is a backup plan if I'm wrong.

I'm not wrong but still.

the correct lynch order is thus:

Boog(Monstr) --> Keybored (Luco) --> Ong (Rascal) --> Daven (BigRed)

this ends the game always, but in case it somehow doesn't

Baud (Rilla)

I'll self-lynch at F4.

The wolves are always in Boog, Keybored, Ong. Like literally 98% of the time, that order ends the game. The negligible times it doesn't is covered in killing off Monstr/Luco/Rascal, who maybe account for 1% wolf amongst them, and then 1% for Daven+ BigRed.

There is never a wolf in Me, Rilla, MMM or BID.

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Originally Posted by baudib

add to it the CFD, Boog and Wuf managing to avoid voting for each other even in self-pres, well you just don't get any easier lynches than this.

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Only last game, boog, a villager, failed to make a self preservation lynch on the counterwagon, resulting in his death.

Wuf is a wolf who could be saving a wolf, or fistpumping the bigger mislynch while hoping to make boog look bad later.

oh this is important

we still need to lynch Keybored tomorrow even after he switches his vote to Boog at some point today.

don't forget.

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

Only last game, boog, a villager, failed to make a self preservation lynch on the counterwagon, resulting in his death.

Wuf is a wolf who could be saving a wolf, or fistpumping the bigger mislynch while hoping to make boog look bad later.

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nope, he was saving a wolf. there is no such thing as a "fistpump bigger mislynch."

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Originally Posted by baudib

There is never a wolf in Me, Rilla, MMM or BID.

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This should tell you everything you need to know about me vs baudib.

rascal might be a wolf. I'm prepared to die to find out. baudib insists rilla is a villager. That's because, like wuf, baudib is more concerned about self preservation than I am.

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

Only last game, boog, a villager, failed to make a self preservation lynch on the counterwagon, resulting in his death.

Wuf is a wolf who could be saving a wolf, or fistpumping the bigger mislynch while hoping to make boog look bad later.

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use of language is interesting here because Ong is FINALLY forced to admit that Wuf flip makes Boog look bad. heh

wonder why Ong has not explored the idea that Boog looks bad, instead spending inordinate amount of energy proclaiming him crystal clear.

hmmmmmm

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

This should tell you everything you need to know about me vs baudib.

rascal might be a wolf. I'm prepared to die to find out. baudib insists rilla is a villager. That's because, like wuf, baudib is more concerned about self preservation than I am.

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all you need to know about me and Ong is I voted for a wolf and Ong voted for 2 villagers.

Funny how baudib doesn't listen to dead villagers, but he's go so much to say about what to do once he's dead.

I mean... I'm in favor of villagers giving their best effort to their last word.

It's just one of those things baudib has done that's self-serving. Honestly, I'm withholding my vote to hear from other people who haven't posted today, and to finish my re-read... which isn't gonna happen tonight... but I'm convinced baudib is the vote.

rilla seems to be convinced as well. We'll see what happens to his vote over the next 2 days.

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Originally Posted by baudib

nope, he was saving a wolf. there is no such thing as a "fistpump bigger mislynch."

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bewilderment

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Originally Posted by baudib

oh this is important

we still need to lynch Keybored tomorrow even after he switches his vote to Boog at some point today.

don't forget.

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lol.

I'm not voting keybored this game. ruse.

key is so V.

Luco is on my list of suspects, but key has enough on D1 to clear him. WAY more than my paper thin case against him this morning.

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Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

If the wolves were in favor of gabe/rong (they obv were), then why would they vote on Boog/monstr, the counter-wagon?
I really don't follow the "pure wagon" argument.

You're giving a lot of credit to D1 villager randomness falling on the correct target.

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think it through slowly MMM

Boog is leading wagon

only villagers are voting for him.

Imagine you are a wolf. You have never been a wolf so analyzing wagons from this POV isn't something you're used to.

but if you can ride out Day 1 safely with a mislynch in hand, and no wolves getting their hands dirty, this is an AMAZING victory.

you will never ever get involved in meddling with the wagons if another wagon forms that is also a villager.

Wuf was AFK and off-wagon and he could have easily let the Boog lynch go through.

wuf could have been mashing f5 while talking in the den. How do you know he was afk?

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Originally Posted by baudib

use of language is interesting here because Ong is FINALLY forced to admit that Wuf flip makes Boog look bad. heh

wonder why Ong has not explored the idea that Boog looks bad, instead spending inordinate amount of energy proclaiming him crystal clear.

hmmmmmm

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boog looks bad from a level 0 point of view... wuf made a late gabe vote which saved boog and nailed a mislynch.

But when you read pages 3 and 4, suddenly boog looks better. When you consider that wuf left it so late, boog looks better. In fact, when you consider level 1 wolfing... nail gabe and hope that later it looks like boog was being saved... he looks even better.

Wuf doesn't not post in high-leverage situations when he is at the keyboard

Ong, your entire defense of Boog is based on the idea is based on the timing of the vote shift to Gabe. That notion is utterly destroyed by the fact that Wuf was an AFK wolf. And you, a wolf, made the Gabe wagon viable.

you're the one saying that the Gabe lynch was appealing to the wolves, you said it was appealing to you as well. Wolves made the wagon viable and sent in crucial votes.

the idea that we are left with a villager-only wagon on Boog does not happen if he is a villager, ever. Wolves would group in a high-leverage situation, not a V-V wagon.

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

boog looks bad from a level 0 point of view... wuf made a late gabe vote which saved boog and nailed a mislynch.

But when you read pages 3 and 4, suddenly boog looks better. When you consider that wuf left it so late, boog looks better. In fact, when you consider level 1 wolfing... nail gabe and hope that later it looks like boog was being saved... he looks even better.

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No one in this godforsaken village would have even noticed that a wolf was being saved if I haven't been screaming it for 2 days.

Despite this fact, we have dipshit villagers who still want to resolve the wagons from a wolf lynch instead of a villager lynch.

Wuf didn't expect to get caught -- wolves never do -- and you didn't expect me to find your entire team off one wolf lynch.

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Originally Posted by baudib

Wuf doesn't not post in high-leverage situations when he is at the keyboard

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But he was a wolf, and has not been a wolf before. How can you even begin to consider this remotely reliable?

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Originally Posted by baudib

No one in this godforsaken village would have even noticed that a wolf was being saved if I haven't been screaming it for 2 days.

Despite this fact, we have dipshit villagers who still want to resolve the wagons from a wolf lynch instead of a villager lynch.

Wuf didn't expect to get caught -- wolves never do -- and you didn't expect me to find your entire team off one wolf lynch.

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Beat your chest harder.

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Originally Posted by baudib

How is Boog more likely a villager than a wolf?

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IMO everyone is more likely V than W simply based on chances of rolling W. I don't think that the info gained midway through D2 is enough to put anyone higher than 50%.

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Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

I def. think this is out of character for wuf. Since when does wuf care in-game what anyone thinks about him?

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You obviously haven't played with him enough...

Q: WHY ISN'T ONG CONSIDERING THE FACT THAT WUF'S FLIP OBVIOUSLY INCRIMINATES BOOG, INSTEAD SAYING THAT WUF WAS TRYING TO BE TRICKY?

A: BECAUSE ONG IS A WOLF WITH WUF AND BOOG.

Question. Who is shouting in colourful letters in an effort o get his point across?

Answer. Not me.

Ong has not entertained for one second the possibility that Boog could be a wolf, even though a wolf voted to save him.

There is no villager who would ever dismiss such a likelihood.

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

Question. Who is shouting in colourful letters in an effort o get his point across?

Answer. Not me.

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you didn't answer the question.

baudib, can you do me a favour please? Find the bit where you went from 90% villager with me, to lock wolf.

I'm just curious if it adds up or not.

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Originally Posted by baudib

you didn't answer the question.

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I didn't need to. You answered it for me. Incorrectly, I might add. But I'm not interested in answering your loaded questions. I already explained why, imo, boog looks good. And I've epxlained why the wolves might expect him to look bad. Because that was part of wuf's plan, which of course you know.

When you kept pushing your nonsensical line that LDFO wolf Boog was a villager when wolves obviously saved his ass.

When did you give up your "If Gabe is a villager, Drew is a wolf" line? Villager Ong doesn't abandon those connections so quickly, because Villager Ong makes them for a reason. You were just making shit up and saw that BID was unlynchable.

Also, rascal.

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Originally Posted by baudib

When you kept pushing your nonsensical line that LDFO wolf Boog was a villager when wolves obviously saved his ass.

When did you give up your "If Gabe is a villager, Drew is a wolf" line? Villager Ong doesn't abandon those connections so quickly, because Villager Ong makes them for a reason. You were just making shit up and saw that BID was unlynchable.

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Are you suggesting that ongbonga inconsistency is a wolf tell? drew has done more than enough to convince me he's a villager, since I made that comment.

yep, you're not capable of playing this stupidly as a villager.

Walk me through the process where the guy who helped lynch a wolf is a lock wolf but the guy the wolf saved is a lock villager.

Beg harder for village cred for bussing wuf. Cmon, go through the thread and quote your posts like I did when I threw rilla under the bus and noone cared.

Through Ong's logic, wolves make wolfy votes to save villagers, and people voting for wolves should be lynched ahead of people voting for people who voted for wolves.

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Originally Posted by baudib

Through Ong's logic, wolves make wolfy votes to save villagers, and people voting for wolves should be lynched ahead of people voting for people who voted for wolves.

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If this actually happened, I'd never win as a wolf.

I used to be able to joke you were smoking good shit but I know you're a wolf now. it was more fun before tbh.

you're boring me. Ask Keybored for some good lines.

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Originally Posted by baudib

No one in this godforsaken village would have even noticed that a wolf was being saved if I haven't been screaming it for 2 days. Despite this fact, we have dipshit villagers who still want to resolve the wagons from a wolf lynch instead of a villager lynch.

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This post just pushed me over the limit from Baudib.

I can handle any amount of gamesmanship, psychological wordsmithing, offhanded jabs, and rude mannerisms that one would expect in any societal grouping. However, as I've already pointed out, this offensive vitriol spewing from Baudib is untenable. I personally do not feel it's necessary that we have to withstand it.

No bullshit, no gaming.

Baudib, if you can't restrain yourself, you should stop playing this game.

If you don't restrain yourself, I will stop playing this game.

MODERATOR: It's time for you to moderate.

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

Sup drew.

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I fucked up. I was probably the most confident player that thought wuf was a villager. I deserve any heat coming my way for it. On the bright side - I didn't vote for gabe!

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Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

If forced to a percentage, I'd say ew(BID) < 1%
Granted, I rolled the consensus easiest person to read who plays FTR

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This is both very good and very bad for me.
I can't help but worry that you're a wolf and you're hiding behind my village image. I don't think you're a wolf >25% of the time... I would just hate it if wolves won and you were a villager this whole time.

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Originally Posted by Keybored

FFS MoMo! You're on the top of nearly everyone's villager list but your insisting on butting into this ridiculous testosterone fest. You and BID need to STFU and lay low while the battles rage. Let me and Ong take on Baudib.

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I find this to be a -EV Village strategy. Keybored looking to minimize information.

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Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

On 2nd thought... is key trying to protect who he sees as a known villager?
Good.
Very good.

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What were you implying here?

This thread is tilting me.

baud, your tone and thread-posting dominance full of insults and repetition make it really hard to find and read the rationale behind your continued orders regarding who to lynch. I don't even want to read your posts anymore, and can you quit with the monster-font size cos what is the fucking point. We're all trying to hunt wolves, you seem to hate that other people are hunting and want us to instead blindly follow your reads. You also tell us to ignore the reads of confirmed (dead) villagers, and to ignore 'ancient history' from day 1 in one breath and then to focus only and explicitly on your selected out-takes from days 1 and 2 with your next.


Add to that the fact that when wuf is finally a wolf I nail him as a wolf on day 1 and then again on day 2, only to end up not even being in his lynch party and ffs this game is driving me crazy


as for shit like this

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Originally Posted by baudib

Daven looks like a completely lost cause this game, so if he's not going to keep up or even vote based on the knowledge of Keybored that he should have, the least we can do is not take his opinions very seriously (even though he's probably a villager).

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and this

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Originally Posted by baudib

Daven if you're going to be this useless why even bother reading?

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'nuff said.


/rant

fwiw, I'm struggling to get past the baudib thing, i'm blinkered on him being wolf - i just don't think he would be this rude and dismissive of the reads of others if he was a villager. If he is then wow, just wow. Anyway, I'm not so sure about the wolf team i picked way back in 1358, bolds added for emphasis, but the wuf flip means it's still possible.

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Originally Posted by daven

i've had a quick skim through day 2 now. About to do a thorough readthrough.

based on day 1 and the skim i think that keybored is pretty near to lock villager - general feel plus his vote count posts late on day 1 don't seem like something a wolf would do. BID is getting pretty close to lock villager too, based on his posting, his lack of a slip-up indicating that he's a wolf, and mmm's partner read (noting this does not clear mmm).

here's a soulread guess at a wolf team for ya: baudib/luco//mmm/one of [hoopy/wuf].

i want to hear more from lilrascal on ong.

we should be able to generate a lynch path to victory from this point, as per gabe. working backwards
i'm not lynching luco/keybored or mmm/bid today cos my two village reads mean there are better options.
i'm obviously not lynching bigred today - i'm definitely not clearing him though.
i don't think ong/lilrascal is ideal today.

that leaves boog/monstr, baudib/rilla, or hoopy/wuf.

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I haven't read anything past #1951. It took me 3 hours to go through the previous 500 posts. Going to call it a night and start again in about 12hrs from now. Maybe longer, depends on work.

Mod Corner

The insults are being dealt with privately.

looking at how day 2 panned out..

I'm really confused by wuf's late-day play yesterday. Baud was the leading wagon and appeared to be heading for the lynch and then wuf came into the thread and launched into an obviously well-prepared attack on 'rilla. Wuf was a wolf, so i'm trying to get inside his head and figure this out, at the point he did this 'rilla was getting solid villager points from most players and the lynch was centred on people thinking rilla's partner was a wolf. If wuf had wanted the baudib lynch to play out then surely he simply needed to add more points to the case on baudib. The fact that he chose to do something different rings really strange to me. Feels like baudib and wuf be getting all fps as a wolf team here. Imagine wolf vs wolf as the only two viable wagons late-day, surely they'd race to do what they could to clear one of them.

that plus all the reasons that held yesterday that still hold now = Lynch Baudib

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Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

lol.

I'm not voting keybored this game. ruse.

key is so V.

Luco is on my list of suspects, but key has enough on D1 to clear him. WAY more than my paper thin case against him this morning.

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At end of D1 when I went to bed both keybored and I were on wuf
At end of D2 both keybored and I were on wuf

We are v-v and people are ignoring the evidence just to keep us as lynchbait.

rescind ong for now. I still got all of D2 that I haven't read since the wuf flip. will smash it today and weigh in.

Baudib, just shut up.

ong and baudib are tilting me because I had them both at relatively strong villagers but the longer this fight goes on the more it makes me feel like there's a likely wolf between them. The problem with this is that I wouldn't even know where to start between the two of them.

It would make sense for baudib to have hard bussed wuf as a wolf, and I don't believe it would be out of his range. Add to that the +EV play for the wolfteam there was bussing, and it seemed like wuf had all but given up, because most of his posts just felt like long exercises in not really saying anything about reads but sticking to mechanics as to not clear anyone after they died. It would not be a hard place for a wolf to throw a vote there, and I think wolf baudib would have a much greater shelf life than wolf wuf any day, so that's a fair trade. The thing about it is that generally when I find baudib is screaming about how we need to lynch a wolf and has the mentality that "I'm right you're wrong listen to me" he's a villager.

Keybored looks particularly almost suspiciously good for the CFD vote as well. I could very easily see that vote being made on a wolf that's all but given up to get village credit and look good. However, I also think if baudib is a wolf it looks very good for keybored.

Another likely place for a wolf to hide is just among the middle of the wagon like rascal, rilla or luco. I think rilla is a villager if and only if baudib is also a villager. I don't remember any reason there couldn't be a w/w pairing in the game and I think if there's a place it would be, it would be in baudib/rilla because that one thing baudib said about "if I were a wolf paired with a villager" makes sense if he's a wolf paired with a wolf and he wants the village to think there is no w/w pairing. If rilla is a wolf he tone owned me, though.

All the bigred voters are suspect as well and I think it makes both bigred and his partner (daven?) look extremely good. I think the way that bigred was a wagon then suddenly dissipated when wuf was a wagon all day makes me think wolves were trying to build a scapegoat counterwagon to the wolf lynch, and it might have been successful if we weren't careful. Another thing that looks very good for bigred is not voting yesterday, which I think would only happen if he were a wolf with baudib because at that point it wouldn't matter.

Objectively, lynching baudib might solve the game a lot quicker, but I think he's a villager /shrug

I know I said I wouldn't read boog out of personal bias, but baudib seems to be certainly convinced that boog is a wolf, and ong seems to be certainly convinced boog is a villager, so I think that if one of baudib or ong is a wolf it prolly looks really good for both boog and the other villager

I kind of want to lynch inside baudib/ong today the more I think about it.

Baud it at -1 I think. Nobody maj him till I've read through

I am almost tempted to say I want to lynch baudib just because if he's a wolf I get to say "GOT YOU I KNEW YOU WERE A WOLF ALL ALONG" and laugh forever even though it wouldn't be true.

% odds of wolf on the wuf wagon

luco - 31%
Keybored - 27%
Baudib - 15%
ong - 15%
Rascal - 10%
Rilla 2%

Though looking at the percentages again if there's anyone I'm giving too much credit it's rascal. It's just the damndest thing that whenever he's in the thread he seems villagery especially when he defended my posting style that one time but I can't help but feel like it could be coming from a wolf trying to pocket me

Yeah Daven's vote put him at -1

I repeat, all you guys that have been chewing popcorn from the sidelines that are just crawling out to say hi now, don't you fucking do it. I'm reading!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by monstrman

% odds of wolf on the wuf wagon

luco - 31%
Keybored - 27%
Baudib - 15%
ong - 15%
Rascal - 10%
Rilla 2%

Though looking at the percentages again if there's anyone I'm giving too much credit it's rascal. It's just the damndest thing that whenever he's in the thread he seems villagery especially when he defended my posting style that one time but I can't help but feel like it could be coming from a wolf trying to pocket me

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I repeat, keybored and I voted wuf both D1 and D2. Yet we top your list. Dafuq?

objectively I should probably have ong and baudib at higher percentages than luco and keybored, the more I think about it as well. I just can't get over that vote from keybored like it feels almost constructed and planned out and I feel like luco is the most likely of my light villagers to have tone owned me

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Luco

I repeat, keybored and I voted wuf both D1 and D2. Yet we top your list. Dafuq?

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bussing wuf early and hard is the most +ev play a wolf could make in this format because it gets them clear and it's even more necessary when some of the mislynches a wolf would like to go for can be paired with that wolf themselves.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by monstrman

objectively I should probably have ong and baudib at higher percentages than luco and keybored, the more I think about it as well. I just can't get over that vote from keybored like it feels almost constructed and planned out and I feel like luco is the most likely of my light villagers to have tone owned me

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I am very good at sounding villagery as a wolf, my ego will give you that one

Quote:

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Originally Posted by monstrman

bussing wuf early and hard is the most +ev play a wolf could make in this format because it gets them clear and it's even more necessary when some of the mislynches a wolf would like to go for can be paired with that wolf themselves.

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But I didn't bus him early or hard. I had him leaning villager both D1 and D2. My wuf vote D1 was sheeping KEYBORED, because I felt confident enough in his villageryness to bloc vote with him (if we don't do this, what is the point in our pairings?)

My wuf vote d2 (and I stated this) was a vote for hoopy. So now you're just misrepping me. By all means try to spin what i actually did into something wolfy, but don't misrep.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Luco

But I didn't bus him early or hard. I had him leaning villager both D1 and D2. My wuf vote D1 was sheeping KEYBORED, because I felt confident enough in his villageryness to bloc vote with him (if we don't do this, what is the point in our pairings?)

My wuf vote d2 (and I stated this) was a vote for hoopy. So now you're just misrepping me. By all means try to spin what i actually did into something wolfy, but don't misrep.

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Oh well you just said you voted for him d1 and d2 so you can't really say that it was a misrep when I was just responding to a point you yourself made. I think objectively voting for hoopy and wuf are effectively the same thing anyway so the same bussing principle applies, but I'm not sure if you'd be the type to bus as a wolf the more I talk to you. You seem almost... offended that I don't find you villagery which I somehow find villagery.

Oh wait you're saying you voted wuf because you thought hoopy was a wolf. Okay that whole thing makes a lot more sense now