Originally Posted by marinersheep
We've all had those days playing poker where, no matter what you do or how exceptionally well you play, everything that can go wrong does. You lose seemingly every race. You find yourself running into cooler after cooler. You can't hit a draw to save your life. It seems like the sites are rigged against you. It's absolutely impossible to win, and at the end of the day, when you pop open the cashier window one last time, you've lost your fair share of money. It's a brutal game; despite your best efforts, you've had an extremely unsuccessful day. After all, you lost. Even the best players in the world, from Menlo to Bax to Annette, have these days. The problem is, that's variance.
Variance is the most evil part of poker. It haunts and frustrates nearly everyone. In every sport in the world, if the best player (Tiger Woods or Roger Federer) or best team (the 2008 Patriots or 2000 Lakers) plays their best, they will win every time. If they lose, it's only their fault. That doesn't even come close to holding true in our game (key word: game) of poker. While we can play the best poker we've ever played in our lives, there's nothing that says we'll even cash one tournament in a day or finish with more money in front of us in a ring game than we started with. By all accounts, these are the most frustrating and futile days that we can have as poker players.
I was talking with Eric "Sheets" Haber the other day, in the midst of a frustrating run in tournament poker. I had a few good runs but couldn't even get to final tables. I was in need of a kick in the pants and a nice confidence boost. Talking with Sheets did both of those for me. It wasn't a long conversation; it started at 9:03pm and ended at 9:06pm. The following few comments that he made to me were completely inspiring:
Sheets (9:05:36 PM): ...u are a + ev player....
Sheets (9:05:51 PM): but that only happens if u play enough to smooth out variance.
Sheets (9:06:14 PM): just play good...dont worry about winning or losing...
Sheets (9:06:17 PM): the winning will come
That's when I had a poker epiphany. I know that I'm a +EV player; I have the long-term results to prove it. But for as long as I've been playing this game, I've measured my daily success monetarily. It's okay if I want to measure my poker success over a long period of time financially because that's what's going to tell me whether or not I can actually play this game at a high level. Over this extended period of time, I've proven to myself and to others that I'm a +EV player, and I'm sure that a ton of you also have long term results saying the same. Yet, on a daily basis, on one of those days where nothing is going your way, where your poker account ends lower than it started, what can we possibly do? We've played our best, but the poker day is a failure -- or is it?
The epiphany: the success of a poker day for a proven +EV poker player should never be measured monetarily. Rather, the success of a poker day should be measured by how close you feel you've come to playing your absolute best poker game.
Often, during one of those days where you're getting crushed, we sway from playing our best games. We tilt. We stop registering for tournaments. How many days have you had where you wake up planning a full day of poker and are done two or three hours later? It's just so frustrating and seemingly hopeless that there's no point in playing anymore...right?
Wrong. Every hand at every table is a new hand. If you play your +EV game constantly, never wavering, like Sheets said: the winning will come. Sadly, more often than not (for tournament players like myself), we end the day down money. Anyone at any given time can luckbox a tournament or go on the heater of a lifetime. Even the best players can go on super tilt or play their C or D game and end up winning. I've won a tournament or two where I've literally TRIED to bust out of it. I've won tournaments because I got hit in the face with the deck. I've won tournaments where I've felt like I didn't even have to work or stress. Then there's days like yesterday and today, where I unquestionably played my A game, grinding out the beats, coolers, missed draws and lost races in every tournament to lose around $3,000 over two days.
So, I ask you, what would you consider a more successful day: A day where you win the PokerStars Sunday Million, or a day where don't cash any tournaments? The easy answer is the day you win the Sunday Million. However, that may not necessarily be the correct answer. Some horrible players have won that tournament at the same time some of the best players in the world didn't cash a single tournament that day. That doesn't mean that those horrible Sunday Million winners played better than everyone else, or that they had a more successful day than the top professionals that didn't cash a single tournament. Meanwhile, I'm sure a ton of +EV players that lost a lot of money on yet another Sunday, bloody Sunday, were unsatisfied or downright angry at their results.
We hear it every time with individual hands; you want to make +EV decisions. If you would've flopped the nuts with seven-deuce, that doesn't mean you should have played it. If you folded JJ preflop and would've ended up hitting a set and cracking aces, you still made a good decision. We judge poker hands on estimated value and the correct plays. You should never ever play results-oriented poker. I think the same thing goes for poker on a daily, weekly, or even monthly basis. If you're a +EV player, satisfaction at the end of the day should not come from being up money. Satisfaction at the end of the day should come from knowing that you played phenomenal poker. Playing your best poker given every chance you get, as a +EV player, should give you your satisfaction. You know that this is what will get you the results you desire over the long term. Obviously it would be nice to win the Sunday Million, but if you did it after making some poor decisions and getting your money in poorly often, you shouldn't really consider the day a success. You should be happy as hell because you're $200,000 richer, but you shouldn't necessarily be happy with your poker day.
After talking with Sheets, I've begun to start measuring my daily success with a grading scale in order to battle variance. In a game that can be so demoralizing, where your down-days are usually going to outnumber your up-days, it makes perfect sense. Why measure your daily success monetarily, if you know you're playing your +EV A game? Over these past two days where I've lost $3,000, why should I be mad and frustrated as hell? Why should the two and three-outers, runner-runner straights and flushes, countless number of races lost, numerous draws missed and every cooler bring me down? I know that if I play like this every day, I will win plenty of money over the long haul. The only way for that to happen is to battle through variance.
Thanks to Sheets, I've had this poker epiphany. It's something that I strongly recommend every +EV poker player reading this to take to heart. Every day that you wake up planning to play your A game and the poker sites seem to be doing everything to detract you from it, just remember what should satisfy you at the end of the day: giving yourself an A. It's up to you to earn that A, and the only way to do so is to play your best every hand that's dealt to you. Considering tournament poker will result in losing days more often than winning days, why stress yourself out and be angry when none of it is your fault? Take the facts and math to heart: +EV is +EV, and an A grade at the end of the day will make you money in the long run.
