A thread to end "lets find a better spot"

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12-14-2006, 10:18 PM
Pelion

Quote:

Originally Posted by euphoricism

But on a deeper level its about our abilities to estimate our EV, and being cognizant of the fact that we're often very optimistic in our calls.

N0. We can move on to psycology later but for now we should keep the problem as simple as possible until we resolve it one way or another. We should assume we are all awsome at estimating EV since thats the only way the original discussion will have any meaning.

If your original argument is "we should fold some marginally +EV situations, since we suck at estimating EV and situations that we guess as marginally +EV are really -------------EV" then thats a little obvious. We know we need to fold -EV situations and we know we could always do with being better at estimating EV so i dont see how this is relevent really.
12-15-2006, 09:23 AM
biondino

Sorry Pelion, I have to disagree that psychology doesn't have a place at this point. If anything, it should have been brought up earlier.

Confidence (or a lack thereof) has the potential to skew the figures far more than the 1 or 2 percent range you're working with here. By nature, winning players tend to think they're right more often than not (and that their opponents are wrong more often than not), and this means that we often make-EV calls because we can justify to ourselves, somehow, that they are +EV.

Recognising this fact - and making every effort to dispassionately negate it - isn't sexily mathematical but it HAS to be the bedrock of these calculations, otherwise they're next to worthless.

So you're right in your last paragraph above but that doesn't stop the problem from existing. Perhaps all it comes down to is working out the EV of our own egos and then factoring that into the calculations.
12-15-2006, 10:20 AM
IowaSkinsFan

Know thyself.
Good players should know whether they tend to be optimistc or negative and add this in to their calculation.
12-15-2006, 10:39 AM
Warpe

Quote:

Originally Posted by LeFou

Estimate your chances of getting a date with Foxy Chick #413B, and your accuracy will depend on certain factors of your psychology, viz: are you overconfident (you will tend to estimate high) or insecure (you will estimate low)

So Lukie always estimates high?
12-15-2006, 03:28 PM
Jager

If we only based our decisions on whether its +/- EV shouldn't we be playing Limit?
12-15-2006, 03:34 PM
Numbr2intheWorld

All gambling games are about EV.
12-15-2006, 03:39 PM
IowaSkinsFan

how was ur flight?
12-15-2006, 07:44 PM
Jager

Quote:

Originally Posted by Massimo

All gambling games are about EV.

Of course but if we ONLY base our decisions on EV then shouldn't we be playing limit?

I mean isn't that what seperates the No Limit players from the Limit players?
12-15-2006, 08:40 PM
Pelion

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jager

Quote:

Originally Posted by Massimo

All gambling games are about EV.

Of course but if we ONLY base our decisions on EV then shouldn't we be playing limit?

I mean isn't that what seperates the No Limit players from the Limit players?

huh?
12-15-2006, 08:42 PM
IowaSkinsFan

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jager

Quote:

Originally Posted by Massimo

All gambling games are about EV.

Of course but if we ONLY base our decisions on EV then shouldn't we be playing limit?

You must have some misconception of EV. EV is the calculation of every factor in poker to figure out what the best play is in the hand.
12-16-2006, 01:05 AM
Jager

Yes, but from what I have read isn't Limit the Science if you have the odds or if its +EV you call, bet, or fold. On the other hand isn't No Limit the Art where not always making the + EV move or the -EV move can be the best play? I think in the other thread about when you called Renton's PF reraise with 33 is an excellent illustration of this. Gabe fells that this is a + EV situation for him eventhough it is - EV for almost all of the rest of us...
12-16-2006, 07:44 AM
Pelion

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jager

Gabe fells that this is a + EV situation for him eventhough it is - EV for almost all of the rest of us...

So gabe works out his EV for not folding is positive and calls.

The rest of us work out the EV for not folding is negative and fold.

Still EV. See?
12-16-2006, 09:15 AM
FlyingSaucy

v interesting thread.

One of the main goals poker players should have in developing their skill set is to reduce the margin of error in their estimates of their expected value. This ability is what defines you as a skilled poker player.

So I disagree with the idea that folding in big pot grey areas is a good move for beginners. The only way for a beginner to improve is to learn by KNOWING certain things. What can you learn by not seeing a showdown in these important grey areas? You are able to know nothing more about your opponent after the hand is over if you folded and will find yourself in more of these situations down the road, stagnating with your lack of skill in making precise estimates.

Assume that you can make money in the long run by folding your small edges in big pots and "waiting" for a large edge/big pot. Fine. How is this plan ever going to cut it as you move up in the limits and play with players who DO have this experience to back up their play, and have consistently smaller margins of error in their estimates?
12-16-2006, 09:31 AM
mcatdog

Quote:

Originally Posted by FlyingSaucy

One of the main goals poker players should have in developing their skill set is to reduce the margin of error in their estimates of their expected value. This ability is what defines you as a skilled poker player.

So I disagree with the idea that folding in big pot grey areas is a good move for beginners. The only way for a beginner to improve is to learn by KNOWING certain things. What can you learn by not seeing a showdown in these important grey areas? You are able to know nothing more about your opponent after the hand is over if you folded and will find yourself in more of these situations down the road, stagnating with your lack of skill in making precise estimates.

Very, very well said. That doesn't mean you should make marginally bad calls just to help your hand reading skills get better, that would be just stupid. But if you throw your hands up and fold right away every time you have a tough decision you'll never get any better.
12-16-2006, 01:01 PM
euphoricism

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pelion

Quote:

Originally Posted by euphoricism

But on a deeper level its about our abilities to estimate our EV, and being cognizant of the fact that we're often very optimistic in our calls.

N0. We can move on to psycology later but for now we should keep the problem as simple as possible until we resolve it one way or another. We should assume we are all awsome at estimating EV since thats the only way the original discussion will have any meaning.

If your original argument is "we should fold some marginally +EV situations, since we suck at estimating EV and situations that we guess as marginally +EV are really -------------EV" then thats a little obvious. We know we need to fold -EV situations and we know we could always do with being better at estimating EV so i dont see how this is relevent really.

The psychology is far more important:

Quote:

We should assume we are all awsome at estimating EV since thats the only way the original discussion will have any meaning.

Fine. If youre awesome at estimating EV, and you have +EV, you should call, every time (assuming a large enough pot to make the rake negligible). Damn, that was a toughy.

Ok, can we move on to the psychology now?
12-16-2006, 01:29 PM
Numbr2intheWorld

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jager

Yes, but from what I have read isn't Limit the Science if you have the odds or if its +EV you call, bet, or fold. On the other hand isn't No Limit the Art where not always making the + EV move or the -EV move can be the best play? I think in the other thread about when you called Renton's PF reraise with 33 is an excellent illustration of this. Gabe fells that this is a + EV situation for him eventhough it is - EV for almost all of the rest of us...

The best move and the most +EV play are the same thing. EV applies to everything, not just calling and folding (although it's not as clear cut at all when it's not calling or folding). If a bluff is better than a call down, then a bluff is more +EV. If on the flop, it's better to raise to get a free card later, then raises is better EV. get it?

Quote:

Ok, can we move on to the psychology now?

By psychology, what do you mean? Are you talking about how someone goes about determining EV and which ways they estimate it wrongly (over estimate underestimate)?
12-16-2006, 01:36 PM
Ash256

Quote:

Originally Posted by Warpe

I've probably got better examples, but this hand comes to mind:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

saw flop|saw showdown

MP ($98.50)
Hero ($237.05)
Button ($364.60)
SB ($79.55)
BB ($130.55)
UTG ($63.95)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Thttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif.
2 folds, Hero raises to $4, 1 fold, SB calls $3.50, 1 fold.

Flop: ($9) 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, Thttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, 4http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $6, SB raises to $12, Hero calls $6.

Turn: ($33) 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif (2 players)
SB bets $12, Hero calls $12.

River: ($57) 3http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif (2 players)
SB bets $51.55 (All-In), Hero ???

Villain is a 70/30 laggtard. Does Hero pick "a better spot"?

I don't think hero should "pick a better spot".

I think Hero should decide which of Call and Fold is +EV, and pick the one that is +EV. "Pick a better spot" is just a way of paraphrasing "fold because we can't work out what the answer is".
12-16-2006, 08:12 PM
Jager

Preface: This may come from my math background and my history as a 'winning' BJ player.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pelion

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jager

Gabe fells that this is a + EV situation for him eventhough it is - EV for almost all of the rest of us...

So gabe works out his EV for not folding is positive and calls.

The rest of us work out the EV for not folding is negative and fold.

Still EV. See?

I don't believe this to be accurate. EV is player independent, not dependent. Gabe stated that he called this preflop everytime, not sometimes or against a certain type of villain but everytime. The EV for any hand is the cards we hold vs. the cards our opponent holds along with other factors such as stack size etc. Since we cannot see our opponents cards we give them a range, then we estimate our EV, it doesn't matter who we are the math is built in. If Gabe said that because he can put his opponent on a wider range so he can call with small PPs and it is profitable for him in a reraised pot, I could accept that his EV is higher than ours, however I do not. Therefore Gabe makes a -EV decision preflop, then later makes a more profitable play later that makes up for his preflop decision. Another example of players here who make -EV decisions is when they float. Floating is a -EV decision, they are looking to make a play later that makes up for their float. Massimo on that table with me , Renton and Irish you called a preflop reraise twice with a small PP. After our hand when you hit quads against my AK on that A66 flop, we discussed it. You told me that you thought you could 'outplay' me postflop. From your posts in the other thread, you also thought you could 'outplay' Renton postflop. You are making a -EV decision preflop becasue you feel you could make a better +EV play later.

If we estimate our EV to be negative then we automatically fold? If we determine that our EV is positive do we push if we get the chance? Do we do this on every street? If we play our hands like this we should be playing limit. Playing No Limit, any given hand we may have to put our stack at risk. I don't think that the best players play their hand in a vacuum where every decision is based on their EV at the moment. I think they play their hand more as a whole, looking for the best way to maximize or minimize each hand. They know when to get a way from marginal hands when the pot starts to get out of control, but they also know which marginal hands to push and WHEN. This is why I think that you can find a better spot in some cases.

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