Double Day Unlimited Werewolf

Quote:

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

I assume that's a phone posting quirk. I don't have such problems.

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No, I'm not on the phone, but I did have to go back and uncheck the MQ's to clear them. Normally they clear themselves.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by lilrascal

I agree which is why I said it's not vote worthy yet. Does he ever try and derp clear himself? I can't remember him doing it, but I have less playing time with him.

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Possibly. He's definitely capable of creative wolf plays. I initially rescinded him from my list because his first post was very much of his villager character. He can be a little awkward to settle in as wolf, although he's as good a wolf as any so I wouldn't rely on that read alone. Here, he was quick to take a pop at baudib, echoing my thoughts about him. jkds' villager game is like a better more refined version of mine. We're similar in the way we analyse things, he's just a lot more concise.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

I'm not convinced. He (lilrascal) relies on live interaction to press his advantage as villager. This is the perfect hedge.
Everyone hedges. Villagers get less pressure when they're honest, and wolves get less pressure when they lie. Hedges win games.
Whoever calls it can get at least a partial free ride. Especially on this site where we know each other so well.

My read on lilrascal is slightly more wolfy than not.
(I totes misread him as wolfy in my MU game. Even after I'd identified the wolves I had him as possible SK, even though the night actions would have to have been phenomenal to prevent the SK from getting any kills. My meta read on rascal is in the dumps.)

BID for village President. He's playing the strongest D1 village game he's played in my recollection. Leaning V for BID.
I'm leaning slightly village on ong for his defense of his group vote and BID's read supports that. I trust BID's D1 reads on ong.
BID being all over the place is standard BIDville. Picking on BID for this is slightly wolfy, if anything (baud).

Despite that it's slightly wolfy on baudib to pick on BID, in general, he's reading V to me. He always looks village in the early game to me, and he's constantly improving. I hope he's a good guy. I'd love to hear a convincing read on baud, but I think it's too early and he's too good for that.

Gator... idk. He didn't fist pump in his opening post, so I guess that's wolfy.
JKDS always takes time to read, too.
Luco yet to post.
gabe yet to post.


I miss dhubs telling us how vanilla he was in every post.

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After this MMM tops my villager list. Baudib is a close second and I think JKDS may be villager but need to vet something out first.

Why would you lean villager with baudib on d1, who you yourself acknowledge is hard to figure out?

Not so long ago gator you said I'm a villager. Now mojo jkds and baudib are above me. Have I said something to make you reconsider? Or did baudib say something really villagery that I missed? I can get the v reads on the other two.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

gator is a sneaky fucker, there's really no better way of putting it. He deserves your respect, but most certainly not your trust.

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Love you ong

Quote:

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Originally Posted by lilrascal

Gator, have we played with each other before?

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I don't think so. I was burnt out and sat out the last few games.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

I didn't actually notice that hoopy had clearly stated two wolves, I was just defaulting to two wolves due to game size.

I mean it's unlikely jkds would bother to play dumb about wolf team size when it's already out there.

rescind jkds

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I agree with this. That jumped out at me when I saw that post and immediately thought either he is definitely villager or making a seriously advanced wolf move on day 1. Leaning vill at this point.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by lilrascal

I agree which is why I said it's not vote worthy yet. Does he ever try and derp clear himself? I can't remember him doing it, but I have less playing time with him.

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That would be a pretty balsy play as it is the classic derp move so it may or may not get credit. JKDS is good enough that I think if he were trying to derp clear himself it would be with an obvious one.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

Why would you lean villager with baudib on d1, who you yourself acknowledge is hard to figure out?

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because to sort things out I have to lean one way or another. I didn't say "lock" villager.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by GatorJH

because to sort things out I have to lean one way or another. I didn't say "lock" villager.

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To say he's leaning villager imples that you have an actual read on him, rather than an attempt to sort. It's not like you put him in the village camp in a list of players, you went as far as saying he's nearly as strong as v lean as mojo. There must be a reason for that.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

Not so long ago gator you said I'm a villager. Now mojo jkds and baudib are above me. Have I said something to make you reconsider? Or did baudib say something really villagery that I missed? I can get the v reads on the other two.

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No, those three were just at top of mind in real time reading. It's day 1 so my thoughts may change dramatically once we have at least some info.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

To say he's leaning villager imples that you have an actual read on him, rather than an attempt to sort. It's not like you put him in the village camp in a list of players, you went as far as saying he's nearly as strong as v lean as mojo. There must be a reason for that.

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Yep. The reason is I think he is trying to find villagers as often as he is trying to find wolves. Not sure I can say the same about you. And actually, targeting me day 1 would be a pretty smart move for a wolf because it is pretty easy to target me based on past game results. Btw, I am not saying targeting me is wrong because you should try to keep me honest. I am saying locking on me is wrong on day 1.

Locking on? I'm asking you questions, which you're doing a poor job of answering. You're way too defensive, I mean it's not like it would come as a surprise to you that I'm pressing.

That dismissal puts you firmly as my prime suspect. Its tone is to discredit me, when you had me as a villager not so long ago. If you think I'm a villager, then you'd at least understand why I'm "locking on". I would go as far as to say that I would anticipate my pressing of you after you say you think I'm a villager would further strengthen your villager read on me, because I'm not interested in how you read me, rather more interested in how honest you are. Yet you're turning on me.

That's a defensive mechanism that is not characteristic of villager gator, who is more laid back.

rescind baudib

rescind mojo

Quote:

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Yep. The reason is I think he is trying to find villagers as often as he is trying to find wolves. Not sure I can say the same about you.

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gator, my strategy so far this game is to bold everyone but me, then rescind those who I have reason to think are town. Before you make this suggestion, I rescinded jkds and drew. That should indicate to you that I am indeed looking for villagers, especially given that I had a discussion with rascal where I make it clear that I'm towning jkds.

I don't see this dismissal coming from a villager, it doesn't make any sense.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

Why would you lean villager with baudib on d1, who you yourself acknowledge is hard to figure out?

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Ong just always wants me to be a wolf. we've literally never been able to work together as V/V (if you're a V)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by baudib

Ong just always wants me to be a wolf. we've literally never been able to work together as V/V (if you're a V)

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I feel like my d1 arguing with you *should* help me to read you better, but it never works out quite like that. That strategy worked against wuf, who I always call a wolf d1 and always have as nailed villager by d3.

there were a couple games where I knew you were a villager (including that game I knew you were the seer) and you tunneled me relentlessly, and that one AIDS game where we insisted on lynching each other as V/V.

so basically, FU Ong.

Don't be rude to me or my mom will dump you.

Gator feels light-hearted and game solvey.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by baudib

Gator feels light-hearted and game solvey.

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gator went from methodical to irritated and defensive in an instant.

oh

Quote:

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Originally Posted by baudib

oh

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You don't think that gator getting irritated so early on is noteworthy?

I'm aware of the game but won't be able to really start and hit this thing until evening. Give me a break

I think when Gator does his "love you, Ong" thing he's in a good mood.

rescind Ong

Quote:

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Originally Posted by baudib

I think when Gator does his "love you, Ong" thing he's in a good mood.

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I think gator's posts at that time were typical methodical gator, designed to be pro-town and easy to replicate. gator defines null like no other. I think the key to reading gator is to try to get into his villager head, because trying to get into his wolf head is futile.

He says I'm a villager. He then says baudib and mojo are villagers. I ask why he thinks baudib villager, and he suggests I'm locking on while the tone of his post suggests I'm suspicious. So despite him initially thinking I'm villager, and me doing my usual thing, he then casts doubt at me when I refuse to stop pressing him. His change of tune regarding me is a reaction to me pressing him, when he should expect me to do exactly that regardless of my alignment. gator isn't thinking "ongies gonna ong", he's thinking "shut up ong".

Granted, I'm having to make some assumptions here about how gator thinks when he's a villager, but I honestly think that will be a more fruitful exercise than making assumptions about how he thinks when he's a wolf.

I would also like to point out that this game is too small for us to even consider for a minute that anyone is unlynchable on d1 thanks to reputation. There is no reason not to analyse gator, or anyone else for that matter, at this stage of the game. baudib trying to brush this off after suspecting him early on could certainly be worth revisiting if gator is indeed a wolf, especially given that baudib has gone on to rescind me, thus implying a villager lean. If baudib thinks I'm a villager, why isn't he taking me more seriously? It's not like anyone else has anything better. baudib could be protecting gator here, it's certainly not an unreasonable tactic where only two wolves exist. Distance from gator early on, but when push comes to shove, reluctance.

lynch baudib

Yeah get back on the list.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by gabe

I'm aware of the game but won't be able to really start and hit this thing until evening. Give me a break

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Village lean for this. The "give me a break" implies that he assumes that he's getting moaned at for being so quiet, thus hinting he hasn't read anything. I'd expect wolf gabe to have a glance through before posting.

rescind gabe

My impression of dhubs:

Looks like I rando'd vanilla villager again. Just so you guys are aware, I'm a villager. One of these days I'll be a wolf but today is not that day because guess what? I'm a villager.

....

Then dhubs makes the same post on D2

I haven't read a post after MMM's comment about missing dhubs and I won't until late tonight EST.

I have never seen ong play such a relentless village game this early on D1. If this is a ruse, early vote for most improved wolf... which is saying something, 'cause ong has had some stellar wolf games.

I've been dreaming of a game where ong would just put his nose to the grind and hunt with me, and maybe this is that game.

I've been working and drinking and now I'm slightly hung over. I have yet to make my spreadsheet, so I haven't started taking notes yet.

BID/ong looking like village as of now. I want to get my sheet made and go back over the thread by end of day (IRL day). My head is still a bit fuzzy.

***
@Hoopy

How long 'till first lynch, please?

Lynch Ong

Quote:

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Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

***
@Hoopy

How long 'till first lynch, please?

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15 hours and 31 minutes.

Votecount 1.2

2
Luco - (Ong, JKDS)

Gator - (Ong, JKDS)

baudib - (BID, Ong)

1
gabe - (JKDS)

MMM - (baudib)

Ong - (baudib)

lilrascal - (Ong)

Please point out any errors in the count.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by baudib

I said Bid is a villager playing badly. that's not wolfy.

your overly explained explanation is perfectly standard.

B lynch MMM /B

#getrekt

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FYP

You have too much chatter and barely anything which denotes actual investigation.
Your bolds are on me and ong (whom I'm reading as V).


lynch baudib

***
I think the votes on gabe/gator are strange to say the least, since the odds of either of them getting lynched are minimal, given our meta. Wolves drive a gabe lynch on D1. If gator has the rep he has, then taking him out on D1 when rand dictates that he's more likely V than W is pretty bad form.

mojo -

Quote:

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

I would also like to point out that this game is too small for us to even consider for a minute that anyone is unlynchable on d1 thanks to reputation. There is no reason not to analyse gator, or anyone else for that matter, at this stage of the game.

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Had a fight with fiance. Things seem ok now, and if that keeps up I can post tonight.

9 players, two lynches today, one probable night kill. That's six tomorrow, with two more lynches, and another nom, taking us to final three on d3, assuming no kills are blocked, or crazy vig etc.

We don't have the luxury of a standard d1 lynch to ease ourselves in, we're right in the thick of it already.

I'll say this out loud too... if I were vig, I probably wouldn't be shooting until a kill is blocked.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

mojo -

Quote:

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Originally Posted by ongieliscious

I would also like to point out that this game is too small for us to even consider for a minute that anyone is unlynchable on d1 thanks to reputation. There is no reason not to analyse gator, or anyone else for that matter, at this stage of the game.

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??

Oh. I see now. Yes, I agree. I am being overly meta about gabe and gator.

Still. I have some other suspicions on baudib, but I'm not getting into them at this time.


This post means either of two things:
1) Ongie is V and believes I'm V and is helping me keep my head on straight.
2) Ongie is W and knows that gabe and gator are V and wants to keep suspicion piqued.

I'm leaning the former, but if ongie flips W, I doubt that he's overtly diverting suspicion toward gabe/gator if either of them is his buddy.


***
Sorry to hear it JKDS. I hope you two can fight and make up w/o any permanent baggage.

As per the game, though... You can't ride on excuses.
What do you think of the baud/ong interaction?

What do you think about my analysis in this post?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

gator, my strategy so far this game is to bold everyone but me, then rescind those who I have reason to think are town.

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And I would have know this how?

rescind all
lynch mmm
lynch Luco

Let's see how this plays out. Hoopy posts a vote count, then a little over an hour from there MMM throws his vote to baudib (and personally his posts after that seem very weird). He could have voted for me, but honestly Baudib is a better villager than I am so the vote make sense to me. If MMM turns out to be a wolf then Luco is a wolf like 99% of the time here.

@gator: What have I said that indicates that I want to vote for you or have a wolf lean?
I said, "He didn't fist pump in opening post." Which is true, and you did practically fist pump in your opening post in the game I modded in which you were a V for the first time in ages. However, I didn't mean it as a "gotcha" read.

Furthermore, I mentioned that you should not be a good choice for first lynch, due to your reputation as a strong player. While I am wrong on that account, it leaves my final words to a read on you as something akin to "I'm not voting for him right now."

I don't understand why you think I'd be voting you for, but this pre-defensive line you're taking is getting my attention.

Gator 103

Quote:

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Originally Posted by GatorJH

After this MMM tops my villager list. Baudib is a close second and I think JKDS may be villager but need to vet something out first.

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Then a bit of tit for tat between gator and ong in which gator says,

Quote:

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Originally Posted by GatorJH

No, those three were just at top of mind in real time reading. It's day 1 so my thoughts may change dramatically once we have at least some info.

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"those three" referring directly to the above quote. No context obstructed.

MMM 134

Quote:

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Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

I've been working and drinking and now I'm slightly hung over. I have yet to make my spreadsheet, so I haven't started taking notes yet.

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(note: spreadsheet is made, but the multiple votes are a new thing to deal with. No graphs even in the works as of now. Notes being taken.)

MMM 138

Quote:

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Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

I think the votes on gabe/gator are strange to say the least, since the odds of either of them getting lynched are minimal, given our meta. [..]

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Then my post in 142, in which I drop what is objective analysis of one player and ask another player to comment on said analysis. Then Gator lynches me.

Prior to all that, I see a lot of flip-flopping and non-committal posts from you gator. I can excuse a bit of nonsense on early D1, but we're deep enough in to be grasping at the straws that are here.

rescind baudib

lynch GatorJH
lynch baudib

Can you (gator) at least comment on my analysis vis a vis the ong post?

I feel like my votes are ~ rand to hit wolves. It may just be that Luco and Gabe are the wolves.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by baudib

I feel like my votes are ~ rand to hit wolves. It may just be that Luco and Gabe are the wolves.

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i think your ong vote is definitely worse than random. a few posts before ong gave a reason to clear me, i thought he was doing a very good job explaining himself and seeming like a villager. i feel good about not going after him at all for now and i felt this way before i noticed him defending me

lynch rascal
lynch luco

i'm going to keep these on for saying they would be inactive

those last 2 votes are to force them into finding ways to post more

i agree that gator's actions arent pure villagery. something is off. also the way he explained his take on the possible jkds derp-clear (love that term!) makes me suspicious of jkds. another thing is that jkds has shown in the past that he doesnt always feel compelled to participate heavily on day 1, but this time he mentioned a serious IRL issue with his fiance. the fight may be real, but i suspect jkds is more likely to post the excuse as a wolf than a villager

lynch gator
lynch jkds

Im back, catching up

MMM's first post looks like standard villager MMM.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

That actually could be JKDS playing dumb in regards to wolf numbers. JKDS should be assuming two wolves.

Back on the list you go.

lynch jkds

(edited failed bold tags)

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Im not wrong on numbers. All I meant was that it would be sick if both wolves were in that list of three.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

Locking on? I'm asking you questions, which you're doing a poor job of answering. You're way too defensive, I mean it's not like it would come as a surprise to you that I'm pressing.

That dismissal puts you firmly as my prime suspect. Its tone is to discredit me, when you had me as a villager not so long ago. If you think I'm a villager, then you'd at least understand why I'm "locking on". I would go as far as to say that I would anticipate my pressing of you after you say you think I'm a villager would further strengthen your villager read on me, because I'm not interested in how you read me, rather more interested in how honest you are. Yet you're turning on me.

That's a defensive mechanism that is not characteristic of villager gator, who is more laid back.

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Post is weird. Seems more like a concocted post than a free-flowing one.

lynch ong

Quote:

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

I think gator's posts at that time were typical methodical gator, designed to be pro-town and easy to replicate. gator defines null like no other. I think the key to reading gator is to try to get into his villager head, because trying to get into his wolf head is futile.

He says I'm a villager. He then says baudib and mojo are villagers. I ask why he thinks baudib villager, and he suggests I'm locking on while the tone of his post suggests I'm suspicious. So despite him initially thinking I'm villager, and me doing my usual thing, he then casts doubt at me when I refuse to stop pressing him. His change of tune regarding me is a reaction to me pressing him, when he should expect me to do exactly that regardless of my alignment. gator isn't thinking "ongies gonna ong", he's thinking "shut up ong".

Granted, I'm having to make some assumptions here about how gator thinks when he's a villager, but I honestly think that will be a more fruitful exercise than making assumptions about how he thinks when he's a wolf.

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Here too. Theres no conviction in it.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

??

Oh. I see now. Yes, I agree. I am being overly meta about gabe and gator.

Still. I have some other suspicions on baudib, but I'm not getting into them at this time.


This post means either of two things:
1) Ongie is V and believes I'm V and is helping me keep my head on straight.
2) Ongie is W and knows that gabe and gator are V and wants to keep suspicion piqued.

I'm leaning the former, but if ongie flips W, I doubt that he's overtly diverting suspicion toward gabe/gator if either of them is his buddy.


***
Sorry to hear it JKDS. I hope you two can fight and make up w/o any permanent baggage.

As per the game, though... You can't ride on excuses.
What do you think of the baud/ong interaction?

What do you think about my analysis in this post?

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Cliffs: He was hiding his feelings about a ton of stuff, I felt something was weird and jumped to every conclusion except the right one. I think we're good now though.

@Baudib: eh, seems like villager baudib for the moment. Who knows though, I was gung ho on him being a wolf last game (?) and was gobsmacked that he ended up villager. I absolutely hate his playstyle, but you have to give him credit for merging his two games pretty well.

@Ong: Im not convinced hes villa, because hes buddying me a tad and because his posts seem more contrived than gut.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by GatorJH

rescind all
lynch mmm
lynch Luco

Let's see how this plays out. Hoopy posts a vote count, then a little over an hour from there MMM throws his vote to baudib (and personally his posts after that seem very weird). He could have voted for me, but honestly Baudib is a better villager than I am so the vote make sense to me. If MMM turns out to be a wolf then Luco is a wolf like 99% of the time here.

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Rescind Gator

Disagree on mmm though, b/c

Quote:

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Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

Gator 103

Then a bit of tit for tat between gator and ong in which gator says,

"those three" referring directly to the above quote. No context obstructed.

MMM 134

(note: spreadsheet is made, but the multiple votes are a new thing to deal with. No graphs even in the works as of now. Notes being taken.)

MMM 138


Then my post in 142, in which I drop what is objective analysis of one player and ask another player to comment on said analysis. Then Gator lynches me.

Prior to all that, I see a lot of flip-flopping and non-committal posts from you gator. I can excuse a bit of nonsense on early D1, but we're deep enough in to be grasping at the straws that are here.

rescind baudib

lynch GatorJH
lynch baudib

Can you (gator) at least comment on my analysis vis a vis the ong post?

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This is pretty standard to how villa mmm responds to getting voted.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by gabe

i think your ong vote is definitely worse than random. a few posts before ong gave a reason to clear me, i thought he was doing a very good job explaining himself and seeming like a villager. i feel good about not going after him at all for now and i felt this way before i noticed him defending me

lynch rascal
lynch luco

i'm going to keep these on for saying they would be inactive

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You're like baudib, in that both of you do silly things as villagers like this. You try and find reasons to convince others youre a villager, which seems correct, but its done to a point of absurdity. Like, one post from ong doesnt clear you...and its silly to think it would.

I never really understood the point anyway, like...of course you're gonna say and argue that you're a villager.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by gabe

those last 2 votes are to force them into finding ways to post more

i agree that gator's actions arent pure villagery. something is off. also the way he explained his take on the possible jkds derp-clear (love that term!) makes me suspicious of jkds. another thing is that jkds has shown in the past that he doesnt always feel compelled to participate heavily on day 1, but this time he mentioned a serious IRL issue with his fiance. the fight may be real, but i suspect jkds is more likely to post the excuse as a wolf than a villager

lynch gator
lynch jkds

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Winning means a lot to me, and winning by inactivity or by dumb luck is worse than losing. Im in it for the glory, and for shoving it in all yo faces about how awesome I am.

Oh, and

rescind gabe

1 hour 33 minutes left!

I'll do a votecount.

Votecount 1.4

4
Luco - (gabe, Gator, Ong, JKDS)

3
Gator - (gabe, MMM, Ong)

baudib - (BID, MMM, Ong)

2
MMM - (Gator, baudib)

Ong - (JKDS, baudib)

lilrascal - (gabe, Ong)

1
JKDS - (gabe)

26 minutes to go!

Times up!

Luco was lynched!

He was a Werewolf!

2nd half of the day starts now, 48hrs to go!

The Village
BID
gabe
Gator
MMM
Ong
JKDS
lilrascal
baudib

7 Villagers
1 Wolf

Luco was lynched day 1.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by GatorJH

And I would have know this how?

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By reading? This wasn't the first time I said so.

(edit - shit there's a page 3 and the lynch is done - sorry)

I doubt there was any bussing on that vote.

I'm willing to clear all 4 for the rest of the game day (at least) on the notion that bussing the first vote when there are only 2 W's is high risk / low reward play.

***
I'm reading the difference in tone in ong's posts, but unlike other peeps here, I'm reading it as genuine, no-BS play. I love me some ongie, and I feel very comfortable reading his posts in this game. Usually, his bravado and propensity for FPS turns me off a bit. This game is different from him. On that account, I can't disagree. I can only say that I've seen him wolf a bunch of times and I don't feel like this determined voice fits in to that game.

***
Village:
BID
gabe
gator
JKDS
ong

Wolf:
baudib
lilrascal


lynch baudib
lynch lilrascal

This format is confusing me, I only just saw that it's the second half of the day. I was just about to "shush" mojo for posting after the lynch!

Or maybe I'm pretending to be confused to play dumb. Gotta keep y'all on your toes now.

I'm no so sure about clearing people based on the idea he wouldn't be bussed. If I were his buddy, I'd be thinking that if he's not around to defend himself, I should get on the wagon in case he gets lynched. So people shouldn't consider me clear just because I voted for luco. Same, most certainly, has to be said for gator, gabe and jkds. All four of us on luco are more than capable of bussing him and then attempting to win it alone.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

I'm no so sure about clearing people based on the idea he wouldn't be bussed. If I were his buddy, I'd be thinking that if he's not around to defend himself, I should get on the wagon in case he gets lynched. So people shouldn't consider me clear just because I voted for luco. Same, most certainly, has to be said for gator, gabe and jkds. All four of us on luco are more than capable of bussing him and then attempting to win it alone.

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That is a very true statement and I was actually thinking yesterday that an optimal strategy for wolves with these numbers may be just that - attack each other day 1 and try to hold on from there.

Hoopy, do previous bolds go away after the first lynch or do they remain? In other words do I still have a vote on MMM?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by JKDS

You're like baudib, in that both of you do silly things as villagers like this. You try and find reasons to convince others youre a villager, which seems correct, but its done to a point of absurdity. Like, one post from ong doesnt clear you...and its silly to think it would.

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im not sure if you understood or even read my post word for word. "Like, one post from ong doesnt clear you...and its silly to think it would" um...im saying i had cleared him before any he mentioned me

and besides im cleared now because i voted luco

ez game

rescind lilrascal
lynch jkds
lynch gator

Quote:

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

Same, most certainly, has to be said for gator, gabe and jkds. All four of us on luco are more than capable of bussing him and then attempting to win it alone.

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do not agree with "most certainly." its true people can spew but i would not start off this way because it doesnt seem like a good play

jkds -

Quote:

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Post is weird. Seems more like a concocted post than a free-flowing one.

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Incorrect. Gator accused me of locking on, when I was asking him questions. Don't you think that's weird? Read through the exchange between us again, and compare it to my early harassing of baudib in recent games. gator knows I'm capable of a much more sustained assault than what he saw there. I got the feeling he was trying to nip it in the bud, and the post you suggest isn't free-flowing was indeed a natural villager response to gator.

Quote:

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Here too. Theres no conviction in it.

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You're wrong, but I think I see where you're coming from, and I think I find this reassuring, that you're genuinely trying to read me. There is conviction there, here to be precise...

Quote:

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gator isn't thinking "ongies gonna ong", he's thinking "shut up ong".

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That sums up how I interpret the exchange with me, and I'm left reading gator as wolf.

But then when I say "granted I'm making assumptions", I'm essentially making a disclaimer that can indeed be seen as a lack of conviction, which is more likely to come from wolf ong than villager ong, because as wolf I'm concerned about who gets cleared when I flip. The fact you've picked up on this is comforting.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by gabe

do not agree with "most certainly." its true people can spew but i would not start off this way because it doesnt seem like a good play

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Wolves know that with two village lynches per day and two clean night kills, even a lone wolf can win d3. That's not a long time to coast on village cred for bussing. My point is that all four of us on the wagon are all more than capable ofd crunching the numbers and concluding it's a worthwhile risk, especially if it's assumed that luco won't survive because he's absent.

bussing luco would not necessarily be "spew". I've played a 9p game as scum on MS, and bussed my only buddy on d1, even after he fakeclaimed cop. Had my n1 kill gone through, I win. When I conceded, the town was surprised it was me. If bussing on d1 is considered "spew", then it makes it a more effective sacrifice.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by gabe

im not sure if you understood or even read my post word for word. "Like, one post from ong doesnt clear you...and its silly to think it would" um...im saying i had cleared him before any he mentioned me

and besides im cleared now because i voted luco

ez game

rescind lilrascal
lynch jkds
lynch gator

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You are cleared because you voted for Luco. I too voted for Luco yet you vote for me. What kind of logic are you using here?

Lynch JKDS

bussing in a 9er with no seer can absolutely be good play

I feel like that post from JKDS soft-pushing Luco in a group of three smells fishy.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by GatorJH

That is a very true statement and I was actually thinking yesterday that an optimal strategy for wolves with these numbers may be just that - attack each other day 1 and try to hold on from there.

Hoopy, do previous bolds go away after the first lynch or do they remain? In other words do I still have a vote on MMM?

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All previous bolds disappear, voting resets.

I'm out for a few hours now, but will do a fresh votecount when I get back in.

Ok two gator posts that look good in retrospect...

Quote:

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Originally Posted by GatorJH

code for If I don't post much please don't lynch me.

rescind baud
lynch lilrascal


Ong is heavy villager lean right now, still not sure about Baud. He seems villager, but I could easily see him targeting me day 1 then trying to make us both seem villagery.

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Here he gets on rascal's back for making excuses for inactivity. This would be a bold move if he knew luco was also a wolf, because he is practically forcing himself to bus luco when push comes to shove, he's leaving himself no leeway.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by GatorJH

rescind all
lynch mmm
lynch Luco

Let's see how this plays out. Hoopy posts a vote count, then a little over an hour from there MMM throws his vote to baudib (and personally his posts after that seem very weird). He could have voted for me, but honestly Baudib is a better villager than I am so the vote make sense to me. If MMM turns out to be a wolf then Luco is a wolf like 99% of the time here.

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Here's where gator jumps on luco, and there might be something to this thought process. This looks good now luco has flipped wolf.

rescind gator

Oh yeah I haven't actually got any votes in place. They reset.

lynch BID
lynch gabe
lynch Gator
lynch MMM
lynch JKDS
lynch lilrascal
lynch baudib

rescind gator
rescind gabe
rescind drew
rescind jkds

I agree with gator that mojo's posts yesterday were a bit weird. I put it down to drinking.

That said, what has alarmed me is mojo seems keen to buddy me up.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

Quote:

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

mojo -

Quote:

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

I would also like to point out that this game is too small for us to even consider for a minute that anyone is unlynchable on d1 thanks to reputation. There is no reason not to analyse gator, or anyone else for that matter, at this stage of the game.

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??

Oh. I see now. Yes, I agree. I am being overly meta about gabe and gator.

Still. I have some other suspicions on baudib, but I'm not getting into them at this time.


This post means either of two things:
1) Ongie is V and believes I'm V and is helping me keep my head on straight.
2) Ongie is W and knows that gabe and gator are V and wants to keep suspicion piqued.

I'm leaning the former, but if ongie flips W, I doubt that he's overtly diverting suspicion toward gabe/gator if either of them is his buddy.


***
Sorry to hear it JKDS. I hope you two can fight and make up w/o any permanent baggage.

As per the game, though... You can't ride on excuses.
What do you think of the baud/ong interaction?

What do you think about my analysis in this post?

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The langauge in the bullet points is curious. He's basically given me two options. One involves both of us being villager, the other involves me being wolf. This feels like pychological manipulation, a weapon I would expect mojo to have in his arsenal. I don't see the point of him reminding me that I considered him villager, if indeed he is a villager. Why can't I be a villager who is suspicious of mojo's attempt to move the lynch away from high status players like gator and gabe? Why doesn't mojo consider that is what I was getting at?

It really doesn't feel natural to summarise in this manner, and I'm left thinking mojo is pychologically trying to link my status as villager to his, in my mind. A clever attempt at buddying.

I like ong now.

Lynch Rascal
Lynch Gabe

Rascal hasnt cleared himself, and gabes way too eager to lynch people that lynched a wolf and not eager enough in clearing people based on it.

I really don't think wolfgabe would be bad enough to claim to be cleared as a result of luco's flip, and then vote for two people who lynched luco, especially if he bussed luco knowing he'd have to go it alone. If luco was bussed, then the last wolf is confident in his ability to win it. If gabe is a wolf, he's not thinking about who he votes for and why, which is not what I expect from a wolf who just bussed his only buddy.

Eh. Way I see it, its unlikely anyone on luco's wagon are wolves. If anyone is though, its those in the back. Im happy about you and gator though, so gabe gets to go on. That + feelings = lynch!

Of those not on the wagon, I like MMM and BID. Both seem standard villagery. Baudib im unsure about, and he should probably be on my list because of that.

You know, its ballsy for a wolf to narrow his list down to two people that voted a wolf though. Maybe thats more genuine feelings than I thought.

gabe doesn't have an air of confidence about him, he's not trying to take control of the game, he's not saying the right things to solidify the village cred he gets from being on luco's wagon. If gabe is a wolf, he's spewing. Bussing luco would be viable only if the lone wolf is willing to make the most of the v cred he's getting. A half assed "I'm clear" while voting for others who were on the wagon is not a wolf trying to take control of the game. It's someone who isn't thinking about what he's doing to the level required for a lone wolf to win.

He's villager.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

I agree with gator that mojo's posts yesterday were a bit weird. I put it down to drinking.

That said, what has alarmed me is mojo seems keen to buddy me up.



The langauge in the bullet points is curious. He's basically given me two options. One involves both of us being villager, the other involves me being wolf. This feels like pychological manipulation, a weapon I would expect mojo to have in his arsenal. I don't see the point of him reminding me that I considered him villager, if indeed he is a villager. Why can't I be a villager who is suspicious of mojo's attempt to move the lynch away from high status players like gator and gabe? Why doesn't mojo consider that is what I was getting at?

It really doesn't feel natural to summarise in this manner, and I'm left thinking mojo is pychologically trying to link my status as villager to his, in my mind. A clever attempt at buddying.

---

I always buddy you up at the start of the game. You're one of my favorite peeps to play with, and I always want to V with you ever since you pwned me in that game with keybored. I've called you out multiple times mid-game for not playing a straight-forward, no FPS game when the Village needs you.

The language is me trying to figure you out. I know I'm V, so it's your perspective that I'm reading.
In the first proposition, you believe I'm V, and you're helping another V keep the distractions out of the game.
In the second proposition, you're not a V, and you know I'm V, and you're only stopping me from offering them V-cred because you know they're V's and want all V's to remain suspect. I don't see why you'd so subtly yet directly point this out to me if one of them is a W with you.

I don't see what's weird. If there's a third option that I'm not seeing, then by all means add to it.

@ong: You're voting for 3 people. Myself and the two people I'm voting for. Does this make sense to you?

***
I always look for V's to work with on D1, and I had chosen ong and BID as early village core. This is largely unchanged.

Now I'm convinced that gabe is V, too. I have more experience with gabe (I only wolfed once and it was with him). I believe that he's not interested in bussing or any FPS for FPS sake. If he's going off the charts, it's motivated by a strong reason. That reason is not lacking in his own confidence to play this game well. That reason is something like, "I hate to do it, but you've left me absolutely no choice but to vote you. There's no way I wouldn't as a V." What did Luco do that left gabe absolutely no choice? I don't see it.

I want to see BID keep up the pace he set so far, as him disappearing once there's something to lie about is suspicious.


I strongly believe there are 3 V's in { BID, gabe, ong }


I don't know what gator is doing, but it doesn't look like hunting to me. Still, his vote on Luco when Luco wasn't under any real pressure earns him my respect for this voting cycle at least.

JKDS ... /feels/ ... villagery to me. I don't see the case on him.


baudib has struck me as inquisitive at the wrong things and more like he's spreading soft opinions all over the place rather than commit to some real reads. (I have been tunneling on him a bit, and if I've missed something, then please remind me.)

rascal may indeed have IRL business keeping him away, but that still leaves him showing little evidence of hunting.

Quote:

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@ong: You're voting for 3 people. Myself and the two people I'm voting for. Does this make sense to you?

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Yes, of course. There's only one wolf left to find. Think about it for a little longer.

What has alarmed with with baudib is twice (at least) I've seen him vote for someone just after they were given villager status by someone else. That struck me as potentially someone who wants to minimise the impact that leading villagers have. He also seemed to think the game was heavily village sided. I wouldn't know how town-sided the game is because I don't know what power roles exist. Maybe if I were a wolf with luco, who I knew was going to get lynched, I'd be in a different frame of mind.

I think I'll be problematic to have around at F5 so you can lynch me now.

Why do you think the game is town sided baudib? You should elaborate on that.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

Possibly. He's definitely capable of creative wolf plays. I initially rescinded him from my list because his first post was very much of his villager character. He can be a little awkward to settle in as wolf, although he's as good a wolf as any so I wouldn't rely on that read alone. Here, he was quick to take a pop at baudib, echoing my thoughts about him. jkds' villager game is like a better more refined version of mine. We're similar in the way we analyse things, he's just a lot more concise.

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Time for me to catch up on this game. I literally LOL'd when I read the bolded underlined above. Who's not more concise in their posting than you with the exception of wufwugy?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

Why would you lean villager with baudib on d1, who you yourself acknowledge is hard to figure out?

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I agree with this. It's too early to make a read on baudib yet.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by GatorJH

I don't think so. I was burnt out and sat out the last few games.

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Ok, I didn't think so, but I've seen you're name mentioned before. FWIW, I like to interact to get reads on people and I'm not into the hyper-meta that's on this site. My style has taken some getting used to for everyone on this site and in my first game here I got mislynched as an un-CC'd angel. :(

I think our best move today is to lynch MMM.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by baudib

Gator feels light-hearted and game solvey.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

gator went from methodical to irritated and defensive in an instant.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by baudib

oh

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

You don't think that gator getting irritated so early on is noteworthy?

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by baudib

I think when Gator does his "love you, Ong" thing he's in a good mood.

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baudib are you serious about this last quote? If so, then gator is either very easy to read or can exploit that "light-hearted" feeling very easily.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by GatorJH

I think our best move today is to lynch MMM.

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I'm still catching up, but why MMM?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

I have never seen ong play such a relentless village game this early on D1. If this is a ruse, early vote for most improved wolf... which is saying something, 'cause ong has had some stellar wolf games.

I've been dreaming of a game where ong would just put his nose to the grind and hunt with me, and maybe this is that game.

I've been working and drinking and now I'm slightly hung over. I have yet to make my spreadsheet, so I haven't started taking notes yet.

BID/ong looking like village as of now. I want to get my sheet made and go back over the thread by end of day (IRL day). My head is still a bit fuzzy.

***
@Hoopy

How long 'till first lynch, please?

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Maybe it's the drinking that you mentioned, but I'm confused by what you're saying here.

In the first post you hint that this this game may be ong being "most improved wolf", then you put him in your list of two likely villas.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

FYP

You have too much chatter and barely anything which denotes actual investigation.
Your bolds are on me and ong (whom I'm reading as V).


lynch baudib

***
I think the votes on gabe/gator are strange to say the least, since the odds of either of them getting lynched are minimal, given our meta. Wolves drive a gabe lynch on D1. If gator has the rep he has, then taking him out on D1 when rand dictates that he's more likely V than W is pretty bad form.

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This post makes less sense than the other one. Everyone is more likely to rand V than W.

You don't want to push a lynch on gator or gabe because of their rep, but you vote baudib. This makes no sense to me.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by GatorJH

rescind all
lynch mmm
lynch Luco

Let's see how this plays out. Hoopy posts a vote count, then a little over an hour from there MMM throws his vote to baudib (and personally his posts after that seem very weird). He could have voted for me, but honestly Baudib is a better villager than I am so the vote make sense to me. If MMM turns out to be a wolf then Luco is a wolf like 99% of the time here.

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Because since the 2nd half of this turned out to be correct I believe the first part is as well.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by JKDS

MMM's first post looks like standard villager MMM.



Im not wrong on numbers. All I meant was that it would be sick if both wolves were in that list of three.



Post is weird. Seems more like a concocted post than a free-flowing one.

lynch ong



Here too. Theres no conviction in it.


Cliffs: He was hiding his feelings about a ton of stuff, I felt something was weird and jumped to every conclusion except the right one. I think we're good now though.

@Baudib: eh, seems like villager baudib for the moment. Who knows though, I was gung ho on him being a wolf last game (?) and was gobsmacked that he ended up villager. I absolutely hate his playstyle, but you have to give him credit for merging his two games pretty well.

@Ong: Im not convinced hes villa, because hes buddying me a tad and because his posts seem more contrived than gut.

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Please explain this last sentence. Why would you feel someone's posting being more contrived than from the gut be a villa read?

I'm getting villa vibes from ong and they don't seem contrived to me. This is such an awkward statement for you to make.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by GatorJH

Because since the 2nd half of this turned out to be correct I believe the first part is as well.

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Ok. LOL.

I like your style.

I'm taking my wife out for dinner. I'll catch up on the rest of the thread this evening.

Votecount 1.5

3
lilrascal - (MMM, Ong, JKDS)

2
MMM - (Gator, Ong)

baudib - (MMM, Ong)

1
JKDS - (baudib)

gabe - (JKDS)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by lilrascal

Maybe it's the drinking that you mentioned, but I'm confused by what you're saying here.

In the first post you hint that this this game may be ong being "most improved wolf", then you put him in your list of two likely villas.

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I think the point he was making is that the perceived improvement in my wolf game is too much, and thus I'm a villager. He's right, I mean this is how I wish I played when I'm a wolf. My strength as a wolf is in strategy, but I suck at acting like a villager when I'm not one, at least here where people know me so well. For me to be a wolf, I've really got hold of that problem, and I think that mojo is suggesting that he doesn't think I'm up to it (which I agree with).

I think mojo is town. The drunk posts make little sense, and I'm kind of thinking that mojo wouldn't post at all as wolf if he was drunk, because I think he's a bad liar, and not a risk taker, while he's incredibly smart, and a team player. So as drunk wolf, he'd be concerned that he might make a mistake and fuck it up for the team. Villagers have no concern about making a mistake.