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Ok fair point but theres alot of the time when opp call and when he does he will almost always check turn too so we do see a river. thus we do still have our 11% equity. Of course there are times when opp will shove flop but since its a dry board they can still slowplay KK and AA thus we have our 11%.
and as you worked out if we had zero equity its still good:)
Also unlike raised pots we are unlilely to get played back at in reraised pots when we raise dry board.
I like the thoughts on the analysis, though I think some of your ranges are flawed.
This really depends how aggro villain is, but certainly he's b/shipping AA, flush draws, maybe sometimes insiders if he has those. Some people will think you're FOS and ship AQ type hands here and stuff even.
Also you have to think what you're repping, if you've been actively 4betting at all. Cause suddenly you dont have AA/KK/AK in your range that often, so what are you repping by raising? Maybe KQ, but you'd probably flat. Maybe a FD but you might raise more.
Obviously he needs to be a thinking player to figure the above stuff. But if he is, you might get shipped a lot lighter than expected on this type of board.
While I agree with Jimmy's observation I don't agree entirely with the math.
If we are called here I have a hard time seeing us continue in the hand. If we want to be complete we should probably do calculations for the 3 different scenarios here:
1) A comes on turn after the call (we're now ahead of many Kx hands but behind AK)
2) Diamond comes on turn (we now have more equity and may decide to hang around for the non-nut flush)
3) Anything else
That said - on a superficial level it's true to say that 11% may be our hand equity but the value we realistically realize if called is closer to zero. 11% would be the number if and only if we went all in with the flop bets.
If we calculate with 0% chance of winning if called we find the following:
If he folds we win $72.
If he calls we lose $68.
If he folds 68/(68+72) = 48.6% of the time we are breakeven on fold equity alone.
Ok, let's go back to Goat's analysis now with the above in mind. I'm going to make some more gross assumptions to make the math simple.
The entire 3betting range (73 combinations) c-bet this flop 100% of the time (assumption).
Let us further assume that if he continues with his hand he calls (this may also not be true - there could be a 3bet) with the 21 hand combinations listed by Goat.
For the purpose of this analysis let us assume that if an A comes the villain will bet turn with AA, KK, AK (we fold) and check KQs and KJs, folding to a bet. This means if we get an A on the turn (3/47) we lose 15/21 of the time and win 6/21 of the time. For any other card we just lose. I'm going to ignore the flush draw option and say we fold or check down and lose any non-A turn.
EV(flop villain fold): $72 * (73-21)/73 = +$51.29
EV(flop call - A turn - villain fold): $108 * (21/73) * (3/47) * (6/21) = $108 * (3/47) * (6/73) = +$0.57
EV(flop call - A turn - hero fold): -$68 * (21/73) * (3/47) * (15/21) = -$68 * (15/73) * (3/47) = -$0.89
EV(flop call - non-A turn - hero fold): -$68 * (21/73) * (44/47) = -$18.31
EV: $51.29 + $0.57 - $0.89 - $18.31 = +$32.66
Now, let us assume that if the A comes the villain is clever enough to throw away KQs and KJs as above, but we're not - we hit our A and we foolishly end up going all-in on the turn. Of the above only the third EV changes but becomes three lines. Against the AA, KK, AK range we have 0% hand equity with As and Ac and 19.545% equity with Ad.
EV(flop call - As/Ac turn - both all-in hero loses): -$175 * (15/73) * (2/47) = $-1.53
EV(flop call - Ad turn - both all in hero loses): -175 * (15/73) * (1/47) * 0.80455 = -$0.62
EV(flop call - Ad turn - both all in hero wins): +$215 * (15/73) * (1/47) * 0.19545 = +$0.18
EV: $51.29 + $0.57 - $18.31 - $1.53 - $0.62 + 0.18 = $31.58
$1.08 less EV if we foolishly go all-in on any A that we hit.
This is all more example math than anything else - because our assumptions are not really realistic. The minute differences in EV come mainly from me calculating only the extreme example of an A coming on the turn which occurs 6% of the time.
An interesting exercise to do here would be to change the 3/47 number as a chance to hit the A on the turn based on us having decided that our opponent range is AA, KK, AK, KQs, KJs - of these 21 combinations 9 have one Ace and 3 have two Aces. This would mean there is 9/21 chance to have 3/47 chance to hit an ace, 9/21 chance to have 2/46 chance to hit an ace and 3/21 chance to have 1/45 chance to hit an ace. This gives us an ace on the turn 1 time out of 20.3 - slightly more than 2 effective outs because our opponents (known) narrow range counts as discounts. I could do the above maths with this in mind but won't.
Let's play another dream scenario here. This time our opponent does not cbet his entire 3betting range 100% of the time. This time he checks QQ, JJ, TT, 99, AQ, AJ, QJs some of the time. That's 45 combinations out of the 73 in the above computations and ... something struck me as wrong, so I added up combinations a couple of times. The mentioned combinations do come out at 45 - but I note that 73 for the 3betting range is actually 75 hand combinations. I'll ignore the error in the above and correct it in the below. And the bet/calling range should be AA, KK, AK, KQ, KJs - 30 hand combinations.
Hand combination list/table (one A, K and J accounted for - for KJs which is the only suited hand in the range 3 are possible because the known K and J are both diamonds - if they were different suits 2 would be the number):
AA: 3 combos
KK: 3 combos
QQ: 6 combos
JJ: 3 combos
TT: 6 combos
99: 6 combos
AK: 9 combos
AQ: 12 combos
AJ: 9 combos
KQ: 12 combos
KJs: 3 combos
QJs: 3 combos
It's probably not completely fair to state that the 45 combinations check every time - surely they will sometimes check and sometimes bet. Let's assume that two times out of three they check, and one time out of three they bet - I'll calculate that as if 30 hand combinations check and the 15 of these hand combinations bet along with the 30 hand combinations in AA, KK, AK, KQ, KJs.
Everywhere in the calculations where it used to state 21 it will now state 30. Where it says 15/21 it will now say 15/30 - where it says 6/21 it will say 15/30. Where it says 73 it would be fixed to 75, but since this calculation is based on some checks this calculation will use 45 in that spot as those are the hand combinations that bet - 30 hand combinations check.
And I won't do the "if A on turn" series - just the basic one where we either fold out the villain on the flop or lose the hand 100% of the time.
EV(flop villain fold): $72 * (45-30)/45 = +$24
EV(flop call - hero folds): -$68 * (30/45) = -$42.67
EV: $24 - $42.67 = -$18.67
Same calculation - this time the 45 combinations that can check or bet is the other way around - 2/3 they bet, 1/3 they check - this gives us effective 15 checking hand combinations and 60 betting hand combinations.
EV(flop villain fold): $72 * (60-30)/60 = +$36
EV(flop call - hero folds): -$68 * (30/60) = -$34
EV: $36 - $34 = +$2
I think the basic conclusion here is that if our opponent is wary of wa/wb and pot control and does not simply auto-cbet every chance he gets raising small here is not profitable for flop fold equity alone. He doesn't need a whole lot of caution to make it pretty universally unprofitable to raise small here.
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v true griff. I forgot the board had a flush draw when I was going through the maths lol.
Sure he will ship FDs and prob AA yeah. I doubt im getting any inside draws shoving since there are barely any.
Im assuming this works at lower stakes while at your stakes its way more aggro. also I hadnt 4bet at all at that table
I just feel in a 3bet pot they are less inclined to test my bluff.
Had a tough ole time the past week, dropped $1,000 i think and down to $5.2k BR. Pretty much getting like 6 outered on rivers in big 3bet pots by fish at 200nl which is a total pain when taking shots.
So basically im going to grind back down to 100nl except im going to try 6 tbling instead of usual 4 tbls. Im very confident in my 100nl game so im gonna just try a big grind.
Since im 6 tbling im gonna set a target hands amount for the next month as 20K hands. I approx get in 10K hands a month but ill add tbls and watch less DC videos. Obv theres an arguement of blah blah im not improving but in fairness I lack just getting in the hands which almost everyone else can do that I usually cant.
no maths today ;)
gl with the grind man!Quote:
Originally Posted by Da GOAT
thx griff.
erpel - how did i miss that huge post lol. when im in work 2m ill def look through it. thx for the input.
Last night didnt go well at all. Played only 100nl and in 350 hands dropped 5 buyins. Not cool, poker has been breaking my balls having gone from 6.2k to 4.7k pretty quickly.
So abit down regards poker so ive withdrawn $650 to have some fun with since Ive not enjoyed much poker at all lately. Just treat myself since I havent withdrawn at all this year and my 200nl shot hasnt worked out (actually +$9 at 200nl this month). Most of my withdraw will pay for my ipod touch and new jeans but ill have some leftover to maybe get some ps3 games.
So BR is 4K and ill grind 100nl again for awhile, 2008 wasnt the year to break 200nl for me.
The year's not over yet!!
Well I largely took last week off to just take a step back and relax. I put alot of effort into 200nl and it did/didnt work out. for the month I +$9 at 200nl, down 7 BIs at 100nl and up about 5 BIs at 50nl. Overall it doesnt seem a totally horrible month but I was at 6.2K then down to 4.7K.
On saturday though I felt like playing some poker, decided to play 50nl and take it easy. Won 4 BIs then another 3 1/2 BIs on Sunday, I was surprised by the overall passiveness in the 50nl compared to any other stakes. It was fun, I think thats a major problem that grinding at pker has. The fun can be pretty much be non existent if taken way too seriously so I think im just gonna play 100nl and put no pressure on me to move up just yet. If I play any 200nl ill just mix in ONE table, i think i made a mistake adding too many tables instead of making a slow move up like i did at other levels previously.
Yeah, these huge downswings 6max really messes with our head. But I guess these are good for our long term mental state ...
Quick update,
Played 5tbls at 100nl last night for +$200. Luckily since i dropped after withdrawing/downswing to $4k on Friday last week or so, Ive gone and won $375 at 50nl, $200 at 100nl and $600 in last months RB lol. So im back at 5k lol.
Will play some again tonight and mix in some COD5 ;)
Played a very short session last night due to my internet connection being total wank. Lost $126, basically allin v aggro opp AK vs his KK. Ran a bluff that worked and another that didnt. Overall im happy with my play.
Connection was too weak to play poker but after awhile I could play COD5 online, such a sick game and Im happy with that purchase.
I like the way you have your page set up and your hand explanations. The one thing i don't understand is that your play doesn't go along with what you say you put him on. If you put him on a range of 22-JJ and that he was a fish, then you must assume that if no face cards come out that you are going to get called. Most online fish see you betting as stone cold aggression and will always let you hang yourself. You ranged the hand right, you made the solid semi-bluff on the flop and turn hoping he may lay down the best hand, but then on the river you just handed away chips. A shared ace will call you and chop, and any pair over the board or that made him a boat or quads he is def. calling which means in the range the only hands you can beat are about 10 percent. That means you have 10 percent positive expected value and 90 percent negative value on a bluff. Sometimes in this game you are forced to swallow your pride and give up a hand, and until you learn that the actions of overplaying AK against a calling station, you are doomed to repeat defeat. So from now on when you post i will come back to criticize you some more and hopefully you will take the positive criticism and use it to win a world series bracelet and then you can thank me and it will be enough. sorry if it bothers you, but i try my hardest to point out the flaws in people's play, because i wish everyone would do it for me
Gl on the felt.
Whats up,
Been quiet lately regards poker, real busy in work. Been mucking around the 50nl games from HU, 6m and FR, been just a bit unfocused and not wanting to lose a bunch.
Anyway Im thinking of playing HU again and I took a shot at 100nl. Won a buyin vs some shortstackers. My roll is exactly 4.8k now again.
Anyone has some real good HU links?? 2+2 HU forum looks crap.
Apologies if this is obvious:
http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...st-t59625.html
lol yea i obv meant apart from FTR.
**still ill reread it lol**
ty bigred for adding to my winrate!!!
I'll take thanks in direct compensation. Say...30% of your 09 profit?Quote:
Originally Posted by Da GOAT
......
Alright!Quote:
Originally Posted by Da GOAT
Heres hoping Ive a breakeven year so, wouldnt want to give you the satisfaction. ;)
More like Da JERK
More like Bigrake!!!