WEREWOLF MULLIGAN

Why are we in a hurry? I'm having trouble finding the last few werewolves and I wanna take it nice and slow.

what happened to.....

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Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

I'm suprised we didn't take advantage of the most awesome of holidays and just express lane spenda.

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I figured IA has a pretty good handle on things at this point but if we want to slow things down I will take a look at some stuff tomorrow while watching the Gators crush Florida State.

Should read, "I'm shocked everyone didn't just get lazy and bandwagon."

ok this is taking it too-ooo slow.

lynch spenda

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Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

ok this is taking it too-ooo slow.

lynch spenda

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Slow BW's are good for the village no? for obvious reasons.

I honestly don't know what a long day means at this point in the game.

IA, kiwi, JKDS, penneywize, bigred seem like villagers to me. Probably Keith too. I dunno, it's late.

I'm a villager too. Albeit, a terrible one due to lack of participation. I agree that Spenda is the best suspect right now, and am leaning towards stringing him up.

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Originally Posted by XxStacksxX

I'm a villager too. Albeit, a terrible one due to lack of participation. I agree that Spenda is the best suspect right now, and am leaning towards stringing him up.

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lynch stacks

Reason: use of the word "albeit"

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Originally Posted by Instant Aces

lynching stax doesn't help the village btw

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Originally Posted by Penneywize

lynch stacks

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Time to wake up PW

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Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

IA, kiwi, JKDS, penneywize, bigred seem like villagers to me. Probably Keith too. I dunno, it's late.

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I like the way that IA and Kiwi are in the "seem like villagers camp". So is this a slip , Is rilla really saying that Rilla, stacks spenda and TLR don't seem to be villagers? Probably an oversight I would think by not including himself in the villagers camp , but may be worthy of a lookup to check.

As I posted earlier , my vote is up for kiwi and IA to decide so that they can swing a lynch which ever way they want (except me lol).

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Originally Posted by TLR

Yeah, you have a game style that is wolvish in nature, it is definitly a good playstyle as it makes it very hard to distinguish between your behavior as a villager and as a wolf, but the downside of this playstyle is that it will make you a suspect very often

...............

The reason that I am suspecious of you is that you would have made a very good recruit candidate for the wolves in the later stages, you were not brought up too much as a possible suspect, you were not very active so that it will be relatively easy for you to slip into the wolf role without changing too much of your playstyle. If I was the alpha I would think that you/Gator are very good recruits, and after reviewing both of your posts over the last few days you seem like a better candidate

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Can you see the contradiction between the first and second paragraph.If I am always going to be a suspect and get looked up a lot and/or lynched /shot a lot in the endgame why am I going to make a good recruit.A good recruit is going to be someone who isn't going to get looked up /shot /lynched. I did also have to chuckle when you said that I wasn't very active which was a quite ironic considering how infrequently you have posted.

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Originally Posted by Keith_MM

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Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

IA, kiwi, JKDS, penneywize, bigred seem like villagers to me. Probably Keith too. I dunno, it's late.

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I like the way that IA and Kiwi are in the "seem like villagers camp". So is this a slip , Is rilla really saying that Rilla, stacks spenda and TLR don't seem to be villagers? Probably an oversight I would think by not including himself in the villagers camp , but may be worthy of a lookup to check.

As I posted earlier , my vote is up for kiwi and IA to decide so that they can swing a lynch which ever way they want (except me lol).

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Originally Posted by TLR

Yeah, you have a game style that is wolvish in nature, it is definitly a good playstyle as it makes it very hard to distinguish between your behavior as a villager and as a wolf, but the downside of this playstyle is that it will make you a suspect very often

...............

The reason that I am suspecious of you is that you would have made a very good recruit candidate for the wolves in the later stages, you were not brought up too much as a possible suspect, you were not very active so that it will be relatively easy for you to slip into the wolf role without changing too much of your playstyle. If I was the alpha I would think that you/Gator are very good recruits, and after reviewing both of your posts over the last few days you seem like a better candidate

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Can you see the contradiction between the first and second paragraph.If I am always going to be a suspect and get looked up a lot and/or lynched /shot a lot in the endgame why am I going to make a good recruit.A good recruit is going to be someone who isn't going to get looked up /shot /lynched. I did also have to chuckle when you said that I wasn't very active which was a quite ironic considering how infrequently you have posted.

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There is no contridaction, the first part refers to your general style, the 2nd one is specific to this game and the names who have been brought up

I think your comment about me being inactive is inaccurate and misleading, I have been active pretty much every day except one WW day relatively early when I was very busy IRL

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Originally Posted by TLR

I think your comment about me being inactive is inaccurate and misleading, I have been active pretty much every day except one WW day relatively early when I was very busy IRL

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Being active in the wolves den doesn't count. =D

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Originally Posted by XxStacksxX

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Originally Posted by TLR

I think your comment about me being inactive is inaccurate and misleading, I have been active pretty much every day except one WW day relatively early when I was very busy IRL

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Being active in the wolves den doesn't count. =D

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Those who live in glass houses (or dens) ....

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Originally Posted by Keith_MM

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Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

IA, kiwi, JKDS, penneywize, bigred seem like villagers to me. Probably Keith too. I dunno, it's late.

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I like the way that IA and Kiwi are in the "seem like villagers camp". So is this a slip , Is rilla really saying that Rilla, stacks spenda and TLR don't seem to be villagers? Probably an oversight I would think by not including himself in the villagers camp , but may be worthy of a lookup to check.

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Expand on this?

Also, spenda was on last night. Name wasn't hidden. So he knows he's almost dead. Just doesn't wanna play. He'll probably end up being a villager, which kinda irks me, but whatever. If we were going for holier-than-thou-werewolf-edition lynches, spenda doesn't really deserve to live.

Most people usually include themselves in the villagers camp so I found it interesting that you hadn't . The comment about its late may explain that it was more an oversight through tiredness than an error by a wolf.

With your list of names that you think are probably villagers the inference is that anyone else should be a wolf suspect.

Right. So who do you think the villagers are? Publicly confirming someone as a villager won't hurt so long as we can confirm >1 person. So if me and a couple of people I trust can get a coherent list of 6 or so villagers, than we can rock this game.

But no one seems to think it's a good enough idea to follow.

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Originally Posted by XxStacksxX

Nice job Kiwi.. Good luck with the leveling game SDM..

I still like a Warpe lynch.. As well as I could def get behind a TLR/CBC lynch. Nothing really more to add.

I would like to apologize for my inactivity recently. WW just got really boring/frustrating for a bit. I didn't feel I could contribute much, and with the incredibly long days, I didn't feel like going back through it enough to contribute ;(. Glad others are doing a good job of it though.

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Stax has a history of using the "really busy" excuse for inactivity. I'm thinking vig shoots him tonight.

I feel like gator and bigred are villagers, im less high on penney now.

lynch stax

Hopefully trip will modkill spenda for inactivity. He's had like 5 posts all game and literally no lynches. I just don't understand why you would sign up if your strategy hindges on doing shit and having the village pick up all your slack. If you're modkilling boog you have to modkill spenda.

Bah I gotta clarify so stax doesn't end up getting shot. Stax is a villager confirmed as of last night. If the wolves eat him then w/e cause that gives me another look up and the vig a shot so I don't really see the hurt in outing stax as confirmed villager now.

lynch spenda

yea, I would think the wolves will try to find the angel or flip a coin between the seer and vig for tonights kill.

Well, I was struck with an idea. I still wanna lynch bigspenda but I wanna buy some time. rescind bigspenda

tell us more as I am VERY intrigued with why the Spenda bandwagon came to a grinding halt and think if we don't hang him that we should shoot him (as long as we hang a wolf as I still think we shouldn't shoot anyone if we don't hang a wolf).

lynch spenda

I was just thinking that it's likely the first werewolf recruited would have eluded my suspicions since they'd have been a wolf from day 1 just like the alpha. But I oddly think there's enough chance that flomo or dranger could have been wolves on day 1. In addition to that, even though you can read through the thread and know who died as a villager or wolf, it's still a bit too much info to wade through.

I've been wavering on my list a lot but that's just because, unlike the wolves, I don't have access to a complete list of villagers.

I just hate spenda because I can never bring myself to hold on to lynch him because he just hides in silence. I hate when players just turtle-shell like spenda always does.

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Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

Hopefully trip will modkill spenda for inactivity. He's had like 5 posts all game and literally no lynches. I just don't understand why you would sign up if your strategy hindges on doing shit and having the village pick up all your slack. If you're modkilling boog you have to modkill spenda.

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Unless he is active in the wolf den, then he would probably not be modkilled

ok, apparently using the word 'albeit' doesn't make you a wolf.. since when?

rescind stacks

and rilla - to build off your point about spenda being potentially modkilled. This had occurred to me as well. How come Boog gets the modkill while spenda is allowed to continue to live?

I suppose it's possible that lolzzz and spenda know eachother better etc, and I believe spenda's a mod too, so maybe the good old boys get some special treatment every now and then.

Anyhow - all else being equal, his lack of participation necessitates a modkill; his lack of being modkilled is a decent reason to think he is a wolf.

Before I throw up my spenda lynch, I want to point out that Keith continues to rub me the wrong way. His reasoning on this page is very bad - the whole bit about TLR and his supposed contradictions is downright flimsy. I'm aware that it's rather strange that I find myself defending TLR when there is no guarantee that he's a villager, but my experience with Keith in previous WWs leads me to believe that something is just 'off' right now.

lynch spenda

I think thats 6 for Spenda

I count 6

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Originally Posted by Penneywize

ok, apparently using the word 'albeit' doesn't make you a wolf.. since when?

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pretty much the flimsiest reasn to lynch anyone

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rescind stacks

and rilla - to build off your point about spenda being potentially modkilled. This had occurred to me as well. How come Boog gets the modkill while spenda is allowed to continue to live?

I suppose it's possible that lolzzz and spenda know eachother better etc, and I believe spenda's a mod too, so maybe the good old boys get some special treatment every now and then.

Anyhow - all else being equal, his lack of participation necessitates a modkill; his lack of being modkilled is a decent reason to think he is a wolf.

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I thought Spenda was no longer a mod ,Rilla and Stacks will know for sure.I would guess the reason would be that Spenda has at least posted every couple of days whereas Boog just completely disappeared and didn't post at all for what felt like at least a week.I don't feel like churning through 20+ pages to find out the exact time .If Spenda turns out to be wolf , which I think will happen as a villager would have tried to defend himself to make a wolf lynching more likely,I'm defending Trip here. If Spenda doesn't want to take part when the game starts he shouldnt sign up.

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Before I throw up my spenda lynch, I want to point out that Keith continues to rub me the wrong way. His reasoning on this page is very bad - the whole bit about TLR and his supposed contradictions is downright flimsy. I'm aware that it's rather strange that I find myself defending TLR when there is no guarantee that he's a villager, but my experience with Keith in previous WWs leads me to believe that something is just 'off' right now.

lynch spenda

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So arguing that someone who is going to be looked up or lynched according to TLR because of my supposed wolfy style would make a bad recruit is a flimsy argument?. Its a lot more coherent than than lynching someone for the use of a word.

It feels to me like an organized attack is being made sugesting a wolfy style to try and get a subliminal feeling into the rest of the villagers. If we throw enough shit some of it will stick seems to be the approach being used.

Lets look who the wolves are .Pelion , the alpha I've not played with before. Flomo died the first day in the game I played with him.
Warpe always dies the first night in the games I played that he entered.Dranger I've only played the Warped WW with. Why would I stand out as a recruit? I've been active all through this game , the "senior" wolves have no experience of playing with me. Its far more likely a veteran would be recruited than me simply because the wolves would know them better.

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Originally Posted by Keith_MM

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Originally Posted by Penneywize

ok, apparently using the word 'albeit' doesn't make you a wolf.. since when?

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pretty much the flimsiest reasn to lynch anyone

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Fine, except there was no train going on Stacks at the moment and I obv missed IA's post clearing him. I was going for a reaction more than anything.

I wasn't attempting to have a logically-coherent lynch and I think it's pretty obvious I wasn't totally serious. Yours, on the other hand, was. And it doesn't hold water imo.

TBH I just don't know why you're getting as defensive you are. You're safe for one more night at least, wolf! ;)

The infamous, not to mention whiny, bigspenda73 is led to the gallows. He acts calm and collected up until he is hanged. Once his neck snaps he turns into a Zombie but is quickly disposed of when a member of the village lops off his head with a hatchet.


It's NIGHT 9

APPROPRIATE PARTIES PM ME



Village of Riven Join Moll
bigred
JKDS
a500lbgorilla
GatorJH
XxStacksxX
Keith_MM
TLR
Penneywize
kiwiMark
InstantAces
The Departed
kingnat - hanged on day 1
bode - hanged on day 2
badgers- hanged on day 3
Flomo - hanged on day 4
XTR1000 - shot by the vigilante on night 5
chrisBCritter - hanged by the vigilante on day 5
Pelion - shot by the vigilante on night 6
Warpe - Hanged by the village on day 6
WillburForce - Shot by the vigilante on night 7
DoanDiggy - killed by zombies on night 7
BooG690 - Modkilled on day 7
dranger7070 - hanged by the village on day 7
StillDeadMoney - killed by the zombies on night 8
bigspenda73 - hanged by the village on day 8

There are 10 villagers:
2 ZOMBIES
5 VILLAGERS
ANGEL
SEER
VIGILANTE i

The vigilante, kiwiMark sneaks up on TLR and blows his brains out with a magnum pistol. Unfortunately, TLR was a regular villager. kiwiMark gets up to his door and is about to enter when the Zombies jump off his roof and maul him to death!


It's NIGHT 9

5 VOTES NEEDED TO LYNCH



Village of Riven Join Moll
GatorJH
bigred
JKDS
a500lbgorilla
XxStacksxX
Keith_MM
Penneywize
InstantAces
The Departed
kingnat - hanged on day 1
bode - hanged on day 2
badgers- hanged on day 3
Flomo - hanged on day 4
XTR1000 - shot by the vigilante on night 5
chrisBCritter - hanged by the vigilante on day 5
Pelion - shot by the vigilante on night 6
Warpe - Hanged by the village on day 6
WillburForce - Shot by the vigilante on night 7
DoanDiggy - killed by zombies on night 7
BooG690 - Modkilled on day 7
dranger7070 - hanged by the village on day 7
StillDeadMoney - killed by the zombies on night 8
bigspenda73 - hanged by the village on day 8
TLR - shot by the vigilante on night night 9
kiwiMark - killed by the zombies on night 9

There are 8 villagers:
2 ZOMBIES
4 VILLAGERS
ANGEL
SEER

I'm still alive!!

It's so dis-satisfying that spenda is a wolf. Grade-L lamest strategy ever. And he employs it constantly.

IA who alive is a confirmed whatever? We're officially in the late game and we don't have any room to screw up.

I think gator and stax we're confirmed post the alpha-death. Also, according to the first page rules, whomever you looked up the night of the pelion dying would appear a ww if they were turned that night. So That should be 3 + 2 role players would leave a pool of 3 people left and I would gladly compare my record through out the game vrs 2 other unconfirmed.

Oh right, angel is still unknown so my numbers are off.

I also think it was wise for the wolves to kill kiwi instead of going angel-hunting. If they'd miss the angel and leave a confirmed villager alive, they'd be in deep trouble.

IA, would you mind listing the confirmed people that you've revealed already?

ok nvm, it doesnt actually help me out.

I just went through thinking i could find some good info based on who voted for whom and what not...

My results:

ppl unconfirmed BR, JKDS, rilla, Gator, keith, penney with stax and IA confirmed

BR: 3 wolves
JKDS: 2 wolves
Rilla: 3 wolves
Gator: 2 wolves
Keith: 2 wolves
penney: 2 wolves

which is quite frankly, really interesting especially since the order we've lynched wolves seems entierly random (ie ppl posting first, last, and in the middle of each bandwagon)

yea, that is pretty funny JKDS.

I do think that IA should reveal his findings at this point unless one of them is a zombie or the angel (We can wrap this up with two more lookups). If you looked up a zombie reveal that and we snap lynch to get to another lookup

Me and stax are only confirmed and bigred was looked up on night 5. My look ups have all been eaten except TLR who was shot last night.

great - outside of Pelion Kiwi was pretty useless as a Vig. I guess I will look through some stuff.

Iunno why he shot TLR :(

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Originally Posted by Instant Aces

Iunno why he shot TLR :(

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bad luck, was a good shot imo. TLR iirc only voted for one wolf and made it ambiguous about what was going on. With him out, we have the first ww i've played in were there is serious evidence suggesting an actual fucking level. Im excited!

Am I bad for wanting a penney lynch now?

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Originally Posted by Instant Aces

Am I bad for wanting a penney lynch now?

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no - he and bigred top my list and believe it or not, but rilla isn't far behind as he is more than capable of pulling off something like this.

penney is looking pretty bad based on yesterdays posts.

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Originally Posted by Keith_MM

I'm struggling to rationalize why the alpha (pelion) would condemn flomo (wolf) and save warpe (angel ?). If it was to lose a tainted wolf and recruit warpe why didn't he and if he did and warpe was the angel, pelion and warpe would now be dead . I can only see it if warpe was a villager and has now been converted and is now a wolf. If warpe is a villager ......what is he playing at?.Even if warpe was already a wolf, he is still a wolf.

lynch warpe harder

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Keith has to be a villager.

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Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

penney is looking pretty bad based on yesterdays posts.

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But these wolves are smart :(

penny's WW debut showed signs of well thought out. logical posts that is fairly uncommon to newbies. Im fairly sure he can pull off a level. But to be quite frank, Im wary as fuck of rilla and gator.

gator started the spenda wagon, I snap-followed with 2 of the required 6 already out. I helped guide the village to lynch Warpe. And I wavered on dranger just like spenda because unlike Warpe, neither of them gave a defense post. Well, dranger made 1 that I insulted him for because it was bad if he was a villager. Then he just floated around suggesting people to look up, lynch or shoot. I hate spenda and I thought there was a chance he was being a douchebag villager and just coasting like he said he would. And it really irked me that there was a chance that spenda could have turned out to be a villager and we would have been forced to waste a lynch. Really, spenda just always leaves a bad taste in my mouth. no homo. Warpe gave the angel thing which I saw through immediately.

If I were a wolf, I'd have to be recruited on the last night of the alpha. I would be forced to lynch Warpe since I sensed him as a wolf while still a villager. So that fits, but as anyone who's played wolf with me would know, I would have coached dranger much better and I would have forced spenda to play.

lol wtf? again, y'all are crazy.

Need I remind:

I picked the fucking alpha.

'nuff said right there, but, for good measure, I clinched the spenda vote. O, but it's all a ploy rite?

Quit leveling yourselves. We have two wolves out of eight remaining. That means we can fuck up for one more day before we absolutely MUST lynch another wolf.

We're down to the endgame. Time to stop fucking around imo.

I'll post more tomorrow fellas. But here's a quick preview - JKDS is a wolf.

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Originally Posted by Penneywize

lol wtf? again, y'all are crazy.

Need I remind:

I picked the fucking alpha.

'nuff said right there, but, for good measure, I clinched the spenda vote. O, but it's all a ploy rite?

Quit leveling yourselves. We have two wolves out of eight remaining. That means we can fuck up for one more day before we absolutely MUST lynch another wolf.

We're down to the endgame. Time to stop fucking around imo.

I'll post more tomorrow fellas. But here's a quick preview - JKDS is a wolf.

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o really? please do tell us how there is no leveling going on because ive posted clear evidence to the contrary.

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Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

I also think it was wise for the wolves to kill kiwi instead of going angel-hunting. If they'd miss the angel and leave a confirmed villager alive, they'd be in deep trouble.

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Are you saying that this implies that at least one of the wolves is a veteran?. The wolves we have uncovered so far with the exception of Dranger have all been veterans (I'm assuming flomo is a vet). Does this mean that pelion is likely to have kept recruiting vets. Given that spenda was recruited after receiving the all clear by IA early in the game , is it likely that bigred would similarly have been recruited after he was cleared by IA ?.

hint to trip : we seem to have a dead villager in the village list:

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Originally Posted by Keith_MM

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Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

I also think it was wise for the wolves to kill kiwi instead of going angel-hunting. If they'd miss the angel and leave a confirmed villager alive, they'd be in deep trouble.

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Are you saying that this implies that at least one of the wolves is a veteran?. The wolves we have uncovered so far with the exception of Dranger have all been veterans (I'm assuming flomo is a vet). Does this mean that pelion is likely to have kept recruiting vets. Given that spenda was recruited after receiving the all clear by IA early in the game , is it likely that bigred would similarly have been recruited after he was cleared by IA ?.

hint to trip : we seem to have a dead villager in the village list:

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If I knew what it meant, I would have followed with an insightful commentary. As it stands, I'm highly interested in penney's response and why he couldn't find the time to hammer it out last night. I'm also getting an odd insaney vibe from this post.

Does that mean I think you're a wolf trying to bring more confusion to the village? No. It means that I noticed an insaney vibe from you post. If someone wants to agree and try to explain it to me, feel free.

Other things I've noticed, the wolves, pelion included, drop into a mode of posting where they drop by once or twice and see how the conversation is going. While the villagers openly have the conversation. I think the only break from this has been dranger on his last day where he tried to float around the convo.

There are a couple of people who fit this mold of standing on the outside of the conversation: penneywize and bigred.

GatorJH has been laid to rest once again ;)

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Originally Posted by lolzzz_321

GatorJH has been laid to rest once again ;)

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I guess that's a joke cuz it's kiwi who died, and gator's the one missing from the list amirite?

Off to study, back around 10 PM EST

yea, I'm confused (and confirmed villager now, imo).

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Originally Posted by GatorJH

yea, I'm confused (and confirmed villager now, imo).

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whys that

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Originally Posted by lolzzz_321

GatorJH has been laid to rest once again ;)

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I thought this was another Mod kill lol . Just to confirm , I originaly meant that Kiwi was still in the village list and I'd completely missed the fact that Gator was missing . Unless Gator was removed when trip posted his message

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Originally Posted by JKDS

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Originally Posted by GatorJH

yea, I'm confused (and confirmed villager now, imo).

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whys that

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because there is no way I would have been mod killed due to inactivity so the only reason lolzzz would have posted that is if he mistakenly thought the wolves killed me last night.

It's either that or they did kill me last night instead of Kiwi, which means I am dead and that would suck.

Or he just made a careless mistake period :roll:. Why are you so eager for a free pass all of a sudden?

sigh - I was just trying to help the village and now you are making me wonder about YOUR intent. Why else would lolzzz think I was dead? I certainly didn't get lynched and Kiwi pretty much confirmed that he shot TLR so unless lolzzz was going to mod kill someone who was active he had to think I died somehow.

In the end it doesn't matter cuz if you think I am a wolf his post won't mean anything.

well look at what we have. the vigilante green name is missing from the list, and the dead people list has kiwi the vigilante listed as the last to be killed. obviously it was kiwi that was killed, and he listed your name as a mistake. and thats really all anyone can reasonably claim this to be and im not gonna let a potential wolf slip by with a "well clearly im a villager, never speak to me again" excuse over something so simple.

plus, if you were actually mod killed...you'd be dead and confirmed as a villager/wolf anyway. so that scenario doesnt really matter either

ok, just looked and trip updated his last update so it shows the correct living/dead people.

@penny: its been 20 hours, if you're gonna accuse me of something then do it. i have no patience for "x is a wolf, ill explain later" remarks either

I just looked through Penney's posts (up till when Pelion was shot) and, unless he was recruited the last night (which I don't think he was) then I am at least 80% sure he is a villager. He posted several times that day that he thought Pelion was the Alpha.

Lets look at this from a "who was recruited" perspective. We know that Pelion recruited Flomo, Warpe, dranger and Spenda. Would dranger be considered a vet? If so then we should be looking harder at vets such as rilla, bigred and myself. Another option would have been to switch between vets like Flomo, Warpe and Spenda and noobs like dranger and people like Keith, Stacks, etc. (if dranger is considered a noob).

My last thought is that Pelion used some other method such as number of posts, who went after who, etc. for his recruiting strategy.

I am too tired tonight, but will try to look through the recruited zombies tomorrow night to see if I can pick up anything from them and without looking through stuff in detail my top lynch candidate right now would be Keith.

btw, IA I think you REALLY should look up either myself, rilla or Bigred tonight.

I just looked through the last 5 pages and have come to the conclusion that we should lynch Keith

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Originally Posted by GatorJH

I just looked through Penney's posts (up till when Pelion was shot) and, unless he was recruited the last night (which I don't think he was) then I am at least 80% sure he is a villager. He posted several times that day that he thought Pelion was the Alpha.

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this is where we differ.

We have a few scenarios here in regard to who voted to kill pelion. Starting with gator, penny, and some other guy (sorry other guy, cant remember who it was) we have 3 people that wanted pel dead before he was shot.

Scenario 1: All 3 are wolves, level by the wolves. This scenario is impossible since all 3 are still alive iirc and theres only 2 wolves remaining

Scenario 2: 2/3 are wolves, level by wolves. This is unlikely, since there were i think 5 wolves at the time, and something like this would have likely been planned out in the den. If this was the case, id also expect actual votes for pel.

Scenario 3: 1/3 are wolves, level by wolves. This fails just as scenario 2 does.

The remaining scenarios cause the problem.

Scenario 4: All are villagers, one was recruited. I feel this to be very likely. Pelion gets 3 people with hard ons for him out of pretty much nowhere. iirc there were also voices to actually shoot him including doandiggy's list. So theres a fair amount of heat on him. A smart wolf would immediately nab one of these people since it would do two things. 1) it would grant an immune wolf should pelion die, and 2) it would take some heat of pelion should he live. Obviously, this is a win/win, and considering warpe could have been a wolf at the time i feel this is the way the wolves would go.

Scenario 5: All are villagers, none were recruited. This would mean someone else was recruited that posed a greater net gain than someone from scenario 4, and is the main reason im interested in rilla.

Frankly i just cant see how the wolves wouldnt do 4 which means we cant just rule out penny and you as villagers

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Penneywize

lol wtf? again, y'all are crazy.

Need I remind:

I picked the fucking alpha.

'nuff said right there, but, for good measure, I clinched the spenda vote. O, but it's all a ploy rite?

Quit leveling yourselves. We have two wolves out of eight remaining. That means we can fuck up for one more day before we absolutely MUST lynch another wolf.

We're down to the endgame. Time to stop fucking around imo.

I'll post more tomorrow fellas. But here's a quick preview - JKDS is a wolf.

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No one picked the alpha. Give your damn defense post. It should not take a villager 2 days to sit down and explain why he's a villager.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by GatorJH

I just looked through Penney's posts (up till when Pelion was shot) and, unless he was recruited the last night (which I don't think he was) then I am at least 80% sure he is a villager. He posted several times that day that he thought Pelion was the Alpha.

I'm not sure what that proves. All this penneywize was on pelion stuff is meaningless. The only real person who was on pelion was DD who made his list narrowing it down to 4 choices, of which pelion was listed. To assume it's taboo for a wolf to simply mention the alpha is such loop-holed logic I can't understand how someone would use that as the basis for clearing penneywize as a villager.

Lets look at this from a "who was recruited" perspective. We know that Pelion recruited Flomo, Warpe, dranger and Spenda. Would dranger be considered a vet? If so then we should be looking harder at vets such as rilla, bigred and myself. Another option would have been to switch between vets like Flomo, Warpe and Spenda and noobs like dranger and people like Keith, Stacks, etc. (if dranger is considered a noob).

To keith too, I'm getting tired of the idea of a vet being tossed around. We're all individual snowflakes and should be treated as such. Unless you guys have any clear insight into Pelion's mind as he was recruiting (a mind that could have been influenced by yet unknown voices) then you have to know it's fruitless to try to discern his recruiting pattern.

My last thought is that Pelion used some other method such as number of posts, who went after who, etc. for his recruiting strategy.

I am too tired tonight, but will try to look through the recruited zombies tomorrow night to see if I can pick up anything from them and without looking through stuff in detail my top lynch candidate right now would be Keith.

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FTR was down this morning and it made me grumpy.

If I had to guess, I'd say the last two wolves are penneywize and bigred. Meaning bigred would have had to have been recruited on the night pelion died, after being cleared that very day.

Stacks and IA are confirmed villagers. I would trust that JKDS is a villager. Then the list follows with gator and keith, who though I'm unsure of, I would consider villagers for today only.

I would hope our confirmed villagers would engage in the convo for obvious reasons.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Penneywize

lol wtf? again, y'all are crazy.

Need I remind:

I picked the fucking alpha. Uh, no. Kiwimark picked the alpha. DD lead kiwimark there.

'nuff said right there, but, for good measure, I clinched the spenda vote. O, but it's all a ploy rite? Uh, yes. Pelion clinched the flomo vote. Are you saying it's impossible for you to make such a move, because of the quality of the moral fiber which runs through the sinew of your bones?

Quit leveling yourselves. We have two wolves out of eight remaining. That means we can fuck up for one more day before we absolutely MUST lynch another wolf.

We're down to the endgame. Time to stop fucking around imo.

I'll post more tomorrow fellas. But here's a quick preview - JKDS is a wolf.If JKDS is a wolf, then I'll be glad. Because I would then have been owned pretty hard and it'll only donate to the rich history of great WW play on FTR.

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I should go dredge up penneywize's old defense posts when he was a villager. They were great, attentive, forceful, willing to tackle every loose end but now he just LOLs at you for not seeing what is obviously right in front of your face. Warpe has an attitude shift in his posts too which I noticed immediately. Through the last two days, penneywize has not been the penneywize of the golden days.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Penneywize

So I'm a wolf now? heh. Someone want to give me the coles notes version of this, cuz I was away like 3 hours and now I'm being lynched and shot by the vig etc.

Wake up people, you're leveling yourselves entirely too much.

I read through some of the reasoning but didn't get a good feel as to why some of you are on my case (I only counted 2 votes though?) so feel free to fill me in.

DD's post kinda went and quoted a whole bunch of shit that was basically a laundry list of tenuous connections and invalid deductions that make my head hurt. I mean, really, the conclusions he is drawing there are universally bad. If any of you really need me to respond to any one of those, quote it and I will reply with why it's retarded.

One of the things I did notice is that he quoted me saying "hunches are for idiots" imo and then in another post I listed guys I had "vibes" for (or something to that effect).

Allow me to clarify - I define "hunches" as sentiments or inclinations with no justification. Everyone I have suggested to lynch, I have reasons for; whether I capitulate these reasons to you or not, does not affect their not being hunches.

As for Keith's criticism (?) of my play in the Cold War game - if I remember correctly, I was either the first or second to vote to lynch OP in the earlygoing, and yes, I was the seer, and the village won the game...

At any rate... Let's come up with a better pick for tonight guys; you can take this to the bank though: the people pushing suspicion in my direction are either misdirected villagers or wolves themselves.

Interesting note - no traction for my badgers choice - not even a second look at my logic - which, to be fair, is far from bullet-proof, but better than a good chunk of what I've seen so far.

Also - VIG - save your bullets for when we have a wolf hung; we can then use that more solid information to create a list of likely wolves, rather than the blind shooting you are about to embark upon.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by Penneywize

Quote:

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Originally Posted by DoanDiggy

The cliff notes:

I allowed myself to be convinced that rilla (and to a lesser extent, Warpe) are villagers. I then tried to reconcile how that could make sense, and my theory was that it would make sense if you or SDM was the alpha and decided to recruit the other with your first pick. I read through the thread under that assumption, and it brought me to the conclusion that you could be the alpha. I admitted, however, that it was a shot in the dark and was simply a consistent theory.

After my long post, IA basically self-destructed and created a series of posts that make him look like he's likely the alpha. If he's not, he sure is acting really weird.

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For starters, I see no connection between myself and IA, and am not sure why his innocence / guilt has an inverse relationship with my innocence / guilt?

On the SDM theory - you give me very little credit if you think that I'd actually recruit him if I were the alpha. Did you see how fast he got lynched in the last game? Maybe he'd recruit me, I could see that. Anyway - I did include him in my suspect / will-join-bandwagon list, so unless that's a noob wolf level, I really think he's lynchable.

IA was also on that list, so if you guys are gung-ho on lynching him, I'm all for it. I'm sticking with badgers for now, so don't get your panties in a bunch if I join the BW late.

As for all this "if 'X' turns out to be a wolf, then VIG SHOOT 'Y'!" business is entirely too premature, so ditch this plan asap imo.

Stock up your bullets for when we have some real info - like a hung wolf. Then we can play the old "look-up old posts and draw conclusions" game, with some degree of accuracy.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by Penneywize

....

So, we're all on the same page right?

DD, all I can say is, you're way off bra. I like that you're thinking, you're putting in a (hopefully) honest effort, but it's time to shift your suspicion elsewhere. You have gone off a tangent and basically lost your course entirely.

Think of it this way -- I would say that, hypothetically, any player, at any point in any WW game, could be applied the same type of scrutiny as you've applied to me; and in each case, you would be able to come up with a litany of 'suspicious' posts and semi-falsehoods in their reasoning etc.

I could do the same to you, but, right now, I am fairly convinced of your un-wolfitude. It's pretty clear that my efforts would be better spent elsewhere. And no, this is not an attempt to win you over.

Expand the scope of your reasoning. Instead of solely focusing on 'Penneywize as a zombie' , you should consider alternatives -- 'Penneywize as a villager', 'Penneywize as a special role', 'X as a zombie', 'X as a villager', etc. etc.

Look over past WWs; some of the most helpful analysis comes from the consideration of villagers as individuals within a group.

One final point. If you intentionally keep trying to "read between the lines" in other ppl's posts, you are going to find shit that isn't simply isn't there. Read what is written, then decide whether the poster was trying to tell you something - or avoid giving something away.

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This was penneywize after only DD thought he was a wolf. The same day as the accusations were made.

I think he did it again some time later, immediately extinguishing the flames of accusations. Villagers can stamp out the fire of suspicion quickly and easily.

Also, thinking on bigred suspicion more. I realized that I'd be suspicious of staxs too, had he not been a confirmed villager. So I'll put his name out there but I wanna step back from the stance that he's my other wolf. It would have never come to anything anyway, as I'm pretty sure I'll be lynching penneywize today and tomorrow will have a little more info to run with.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

If I had to guess, I'd say the last two wolves are penneywize and bigred. Meaning bigred would have had to have been recruited on the night pelion died, after being cleared that very day.
.

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Rilla, when would you say that penney got recruited. If Bigred had to be recruited on the last day,isn't that also the likely date for penney to have been recruited as well, having actually put in a lynch pelion. With doan's list wouldn't a wolf putting a lynch Pelion in at that stage be rather dangerous in that the BW could run and a recruitment lost, or targetting the wolves possible angel candidate(s) chance lost.
I could see an argument by the wolves for recruiting Penney would be that he could help to give information about whether he thought SDM was or wasn't the angel. Flomo and Warpes posts show that they knew that penney and SDM were friends and had used the same computer to post from in previous WW. If this were the case though it would tie penny's recruitment to after SDM made his wishy washy claim about the wolves thinking he was the angel.

How does that fit in with your feeling for Warpe's recruitment , were there enough recruitments to get warpe , Bigred and penney recuited in that timeframe or does it mean that it would have to be an either penney or bigred got recruited scenario.This would then presumably mean that spenda would have to have been recruited pretty soon after he was cleared by IA.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Keith_MM

Quote:

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Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

If I had to guess, I'd say the last two wolves are penneywize and bigred. Meaning bigred would have had to have been recruited on the night pelion died, after being cleared that very day.
.

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I could see an argument by the wolves for recruiting Penney would be

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I tried to respond to your post but you ask way too much of me. I can't tell you who the wolves recruited on which nights, it's an impossible task to soul-read them so well. We also don't even know who all the wolves are OR why they've recruited any of the players thus far. As well as, we don't know who was actually doing the recruiting since pelion is human and humans have a tendency of listening to other's advice. I think you're trying to solve the wrong problem.

You're not going to get anywhere with your approach right now. All we have is today and 1 lynch. Don't try to find both wolves today, let's just focus on getting one. Don't try to figure out the wolves recruiting practices every night thus far, you'll be wrong.

Try to figure out what the living wolves are doing and have done to continue living. And if you think that voting to lynch pelion after DD posts his list and I endorse it is a bad idea because a BW might appear and end him, then you're going to really hate the games when I'm a wolf.

I'd really prefer to wait until penneywize posts his defense before I have to defense my attack of him, aswell. Because I could, of course, be wrong. And I don't think I'm going to come to that conclusion without hearing out penneywize first.

Whoever has the most votes Fri afternoon wins a lynching!

It is possible that Penney was recruited night 5 (the night BEFORE Pelion was shot). One of the things that I was looking for when reviewing his posts was suspicion of Pelion before day 5 and there wasn't anything. however we lynched the first zombie on day 4 so naturally people were changing thoughts based on what happened THAT day. I don't think Penney is a wolf because of the following post that was made on day 5:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Penneywize

So I've scanned over the long-ass day preceding flomo's lynch and here's what I came up with.

Pelion defended flomo from BW, asking for a verification from IA before proceeding, also made a bit of a personal attack on IA saying he was the most confusing seer ever. Wolf

CBC maintained a Willbur lynch during the flomo bandwagon. Wolf

bigred has been bigred all game long. Oh yeah, also avoided lynching flomo when the bandwagon got underway. Wolf

imo let's lynch Pelion. He's the most likely to be the alpha out of the above 3 suspects.

If I missed anything that clears any of these 3 guys do point it out to me kthx.

:pelion:

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On the other hand, the above post and one other were the only two (iirc) that day in which he mentioned Pelion. He spent the rest of the day discussing others posts. If I were to look at my posts for that day though they may have a similar look and feel as a Pelion lynch wasn't being discussed in general. So I guess what I am saying is that unless Penney was specifically told to call out Pelion at a time when such a post wouldn't gain steam then I guess he could be a wolf, but I just can't get past thinking that there are better options.

I am also wondering about Bigred though. as he has gone quite a while without posting which makes me wonder if the wolves have given up hope.

Since we can't agree on a lynch between Penney and Keith I am ok with a rescind keith and lynch bigred.

meant to say Bigred has been quiet, not quite.

I never seem to be able to read into being quiet that well. Penneywize feels like he's suspicious and quiet. Bigred seems like he's disengaged and quiet. Similar to stacks.

Guys, real quick - I have 3 mins left on my lunch as of this typing -

- I haven't defended myself as much lately because I feel that by now it is incredibly, head-smackingly obvious that I'm a transparent villager. I have defended myself at every request throughout the game, and yeah, since I picked the Alpha (I did, tyvm), I feel like it's just pointless to keep on going. If my previous arguments haven't convinced you, plus my pelion-fingering (lol), then I don't know what will.

I suppose it's possible Pelion recruited me on the last night. It's clear that the last recruit will be the toughest to spot. Then I suppose you have to go off my last few days, which have been spotty because, guess what, I'm a student nearing finals and really, really thought that this HALLOWEEN WW would be over by now. Nevertheless, I lynched 2 of the 3 wolves. The one I missed was because I didn't get a post in time, and, IIRC, dranger was pointed out by IA anyway so would it have meant anything to you guys at all?

Keith remains suspicious, JKDS of course is suspicious, and now I'm even fearing 'rilla. I feel Pelion would recruit players he is familiar with and that he knows are good; JKDS fits this mold perfectly. He was the Alpha of the flawless-victory recruitin' WW. Yeah, I know what ur thinking, wtf penney is that all you have? no, it's not, but I've got to get back to work now, sry.

We have till friday aft; I have an assignment due friday that will take like 7 hours and a paper due monday which will take about twice that time. Then I got studying for exams n shit. I mean, fuck, I haven't played poker in a week, that should tell you something.

Annnnnnd I have taken 8 minutes to write this post so, bye for now.

EDIT: I'm not quite sure how many of the wolves I lynched / didn't lynch post-pelion but I think I may have missed more than 1, can someone confirm?

quick note: last 'EDIT' wasn't really an edit, just a revision before puttin the final post thru, lol?

who cares how many wolves you lynched, everyones lynched at least 2, and i honestly expected something more than "jkds is suspicious" after you kept up the suspense for 2 days

If penneywize's villager-hood is so gob-smackingly obvious to anyone else, I'd appreciate being schooled.

I understand the burden of proof is on me, but, humour me, will you:

'rilla, you mentioned JKDS is a villager without much justification. Explain?

JKDS, why are you not a wolf?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Keith_MM

Flomo and Warpes posts show that they knew that penney and SDM were friends and had used the same computer to post from in previous WW.

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FYI I never posted from SDM's place in a WW game he was in. I think I may have posted from there like 5 times total, friday night after hockey.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Penneywize

I understand the burden of proof is on me, but, humour me, will you:

'rilla, you mentioned JKDS is a villager without much justification. Explain?

JKDS, why are you not a wolf?

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Humor me first.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Penneywize

I understand the burden of proof is on me, but, humour me, will you:

'rilla, you mentioned JKDS is a villager without much justification. Explain?

JKDS, why are you not a wolf?

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Humor me first.

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Hey man. Day after day, I've come forward with defenses upon request. Now is your turn IMO. And it's not like I haven't responded with any sort of a defense today. I believe I've posted two defenses so far? Sure, they weren't thorough, but I think I've bought myself enough goodwill to have a question of my own answered?

Besides. Allow me to submit that I think, to a theoretical, unbiased observer, that I would seem less likely to be a wolf than either yourself or JKDS.

Why then should I offer up my argument for JKDS when that would allow you the perfect opportunity to deconstruct my assertions. Let's hear the defense first.

I'll be exactly as thorough with my explanations as you are with yours. So let's not skimp.

Sure thing penny, what am i defending myself against again?

If its just "JKDS is suspicious" then i cant say much. Im a leveler, and everything i say can be disproved by attaching "its a level" at the end so i dont much see the point. (try it with this last sentence and you'll get a paradox)

If its just "I think JKDS is a wolf" without any reasoning or any explanation whatsoever, then i counter with saying Im a villager.

Sure i suppose i could be more thorough and say yatta yatta yatta, first to lynch dranger, yatta yatta yatta 2nd for warpe, i beleive, while having to actually convince others to vote for him, yatta yatta yatta lynched flomo like 3rd again. As ive said before though, this is all meaningless information since everyone can say something along these lines.

If you want something more, i need accusations. So far all i have are you and gator not trusting me...mistrust that appeared after i voiced my own mistrust for the two of you so forgive me if i dont take the "i know you are but what am i" reasoning too seriously

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Penneywize

Quote:

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Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Penneywize

I understand the burden of proof is on me, but, humour me, will you:

'rilla, you mentioned JKDS is a villager without much justification. Explain?

JKDS, why are you not a wolf?

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Humor me first.

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Hey man. Day after day, I've come forward with defenses upon request. Now is your turn IMO. And it's not like I haven't responded with any sort of a defense today. I believe I've posted two defenses so far? Sure, they weren't thorough, but I think I've bought myself enough goodwill to have a question of my own answered?

Besides. Allow me to submit that I think, to a theoretical, unbiased observer, that I would seem less likely to be a wolf than either yourself or JKDS.

Why then should I offer up my argument for JKDS when that would allow you the perfect opportunity to deconstruct my assertions. Let's hear the defense first.

I'll be exactly as thorough with my explanations as you are with yours. So let's not skimp.

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wat

Quote:

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Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Penneywize

Quote:

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Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Penneywize

I understand the burden of proof is on me, but, humour me, will you:

'rilla, you mentioned JKDS is a villager without much justification. Explain?

JKDS, why are you not a wolf?

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Humor me first.

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Hey man. Day after day, I've come forward with defenses upon request. Now is your turn IMO. And it's not like I haven't responded with any sort of a defense today. I believe I've posted two defenses so far? Sure, they weren't thorough, but I think I've bought myself enough goodwill to have a question of my own answered?

Besides. Allow me to submit that I think, to a theoretical, unbiased observer, that I would seem less likely to be a wolf than either yourself or JKDS.

Why then should I offer up my argument for JKDS when that would allow you the perfect opportunity to deconstruct my assertions. Let's hear the defense first.

I'll be exactly as thorough with my explanations as you are with yours. So let's not skimp.

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wat

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All joking aside, the fact that you need to have this conversation on your terms is very telling. And it's not my job to defend JKDS, I just hold him, keith and gator in a pool of people I don't see myself lynching today. You don't get to enjoy that priveledge and before I cast my vote to lynch you, I wanted to give you every opportunity to step forward and attempt to clear your name.

If you were a villager, I would have expected you to open up a bit, let your guard down. But you've entrenched yourself and begun suggesting that I should feel crazy for not seeing either you as a villager, or JKDS as a wolf.

Again, I can still be wrong about you, maybe this is just how you react. We still need to hear from others. But if you're a villager who doesn't feel like he needs to defend himself against my accusations, then the wolves would need to make a huge blunder before the end of the day to get lynched by me.

If however, you wanted to help me find the wolves. All you need to do is clear my head of this lynching you non-sense so I can further focus my eyes on one of these pesky wolves.

So, how about you do your teammates a favor and just step right on up and tell me what you see that I'm missing.

Instant Aces and Stacks would be doing us a big favor by weighing in a bit.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

Instant Aces and Stacks would be doing us a big favor by weighing in a bit.

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absolutely

Quote:

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Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

Instant Aces and Stacks would be doing us a big favor by weighing in a bit.

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as the confirmed villagers they should be leading the discussion .

Meh, a lynch on me is pretty dumb, gator. One thing I will note is pelion's recruiting cast was pretty regular oriented with a little of the newbies. However, I don't see how I'm on your radar more than say rilla. I'm pretty sure the angel lookup order went rilla, bigred, alpha dies so if rilla's defense for not being a wolf holds mine should be stronger. This makes me the least likely of the three, rilla a little more likely (i'm not sure when Ia mentioned his rilla lookup) and gator exponentially more likely.

I think gator is offering two pieces of bad advice/bad moves for the village. One he's offering to lynch me without really saying much besides the fact that I've been "quite" (quiet). I'll blame it a little on busyness and a little on not wanting to read all these long posts. You have all these paragraphs written dissecting players and then you randomly choose to lynch me. It doesn't make sense. Second, you're telling the angel to lookup the three of us. I don't think that's the appropriate move. I think Penny, JKDS, and now because of your actions (and I do agree with you that pelion's recruiting was regular oriented) you are a prime suspect as well.

If I had to rank the village from wolfy to villager it would go:

Penney
Gator
JKDS
Keith
Rilla
Me

And then there's IA and stax who clearly need to contribute more.