I dunno. It's almost 10 to 1, which suggest that one side is burning money.Quote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
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I dunno. It's almost 10 to 1, which suggest that one side is burning money.Quote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
Indeed. That's when I think some pseudo-heuristics come into play. For example, Cruz and Rubio are two of the best politicians and campaigners around. When was the last time their pedigree was a 10/1 dog?Quote:
Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla
Damn. Hildawg is definitely not feeling dat grumpy bern. Sanders cruuuuuushed.
There's a rumor from a potentially reliable source that Cruz and Rubio struck an informal deal (during their spoken-of Nevada meeting) that involves one of them dropping out to run as the other's VP. It's been done before during a primary season, and it's probably the only way to beat Trump without a contested convention. There are a few different points this could happen at, including after today's results up to after Florida. My guess is that it would come before Florida and would involve Rubio being Cruz's VP if Cruz is within striking distance to Trump (he most likely will be) and if the polls are showing Rubio will lose Florida (they most likely will). Cruz can then win the whole thing outright in a serious barn burner. Word is that the RNC backs this plan, so it could be predicted that the establishment would come out in force to support the Cruz/Rubio ticket. Senate Republicans hate Cruz, but they be realizing that a Trump presidency will hand the WH and Senate over to the Dems.
I know Spoony loves his Trump, but the man would just be an unmitigated disaster as President. I probably wouldn't vote for Hildawg or da Bernshevik, but if it's between one of them and Trump, I'd rather one of them win. They'd get the Scalia replacement and probably a couple others and the court would become grossly anti-liberty for a generation, but Cruz would still be on the Reagan trajectory to win resoundingly in 2020. Plus a Trump presidency would kill conservatism for a generation by way of bastardized figurehead.
Wow, very interesting. The PPA says Rubio is bad for online poker. We'll see what happens...Quote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
Cruz has 0 chance of being within striking distance. Cruz and rubio are delusional, and one needed to drop out before today
They both are potentially in striking distance, mostly due to the proportional nature of today's delegate allocation and due to how most of the states for the next few weeks would go to a combined Rubio-Cruz ticket. Even if Trump were to come out with >50% of the delegates after today, a Rubio/Cruz alliance would most likely keep him below that level until the bloc of NE states (in April IIRC), which could be countered by the finishing stretch of the West Coast going to his remaining opponent.Quote:
Originally Posted by JKDS
Allocation of delegates is not nearly as good as it looks for Trump. A lot of delegates today won't actually go to him even if he wins the states, and those don't include the ones that are proportioned to those who get >20% of the vote. Notice how Hillary beat Obama on votes yet still lost in delegates. Delegate accrual is weird and Trump is not as favored as it seems.
Frankly, I think it is more likely to be a Rubio/Cruz ticket if they think he could then win Florida. Rubio can probably beat Trump in some important winner-take-all states later in the cycle, but that may only work with significant Cruz backing since a solid chunk of Cruz voters do not want to support Rubio at this point.
What are they citing?Quote:
Originally Posted by Eric
They seem to mention him a lot. Here is an excerpt from their February 26th email (underline and bold formatting are mine):Quote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
Quote:
Let’s all remind anti-poker presidential candidate Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) that Arizona Attorney General Mark Brnovich (R) publicly opposes S. 1668, which would close state-licensed poker websites and ban new ones, on the grounds that issues like these are traditionally state decisions.
Pretty sure this is based on the polling:
https://www.conservativereview.com/~...9045A029AB931D
Which means Trump would not be on pace for the nomination and either of Cruz or Rubio are in striking distance.
AFAIK these estimates don't account for the behavior of the non-insignificant amount of unbounded, unpledged, allocated-later-at-caucuses-and-stuff delegates.
I'd be interested in some links showing Rubio's position. Also Cruz's.Quote:
Originally Posted by Eric
The latest poll showing that Trump has fallen a bunch relative to Clinton suggests that the late momentum is against Trump (more than it has always been in the past).
Quote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
Typically true conservatives are all for online poker, but with Rubio, all bets are off.Quote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
My dad is visiting from MO and keeps assuring me that Cruz can't win. He has recently switched to Trump, oof, ignoring the pattern of tyranny. God help us.
The framers of democracy were correct when they stated that a well-functioning democracy requires diligence of knowledge and character of citizenry. Democracy is poorly functioning because we do not have that.
Quote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
Where is the like button? :pQuote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
Show your dad how Trump is the last person who can possibly win. Show him how the mainstream media treats him with kid gloves while they are keeping all their aces in hiding to spring upon us after he's Hillary's opponent. Show him how Trump has lied about every single thing he has ever had an opinion on, especially his most discussed policy positions. Show him how Trump's record demonstrates that the only people who benefit from his behavior have been himself and his immediate family. Show him every disgusting thing he has done (ridiculing the disabled, forcibly removing a non-provoking group of black people from his speech, denigrating women at many turns).
Show him that the greatest legacy of a Trump presidency would not be just a bad presidency, but of the dismantling of constitutional conservative principles in the eyes of the voting public. If we were to back this petty, narcissistic demagogue just so our side can "win", we would become a part of the problem that created the Washington cartel in the first place.
It should be noted that probably the main reason Trump is so popular is because people think he can beat Hillary. She would absolutely demolish him. His polls against her are garbage. He ran away from one debate because he couldn't stand the heat, and he's threatening to run away from the remaining debates because he can't stand the heat. In the eyes of the Democratic base, he is a monster to a far greater degree that Obama is a monster in the eyes of the Republican base. Anti-Trump turnout would be off the charts. He has no attacks on Hillary since everything wrong she has done, he has done worse. Platoons of reliable constitutional conservatives will refuse to vote for him (I'm one of the them).
The silver lining of a Trump nomination is that the people who supported him will get a rude awakening after he gets obliterated and they start to rationalize why. They'll then clearly see how terrible of a person they supported.
Quote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
I hope you're correct, but I feel it will be the same old: "It's all the conservative's fault, because they didn't rally behind Trump."Quote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
Trump will steamroll both popular vote, and delegates, regardless of what the polling says. The amount of support he has is far greater than that which Cruz or Rubio has, and by letting him take over Super-Tue, they've lost this race.
Even assuming that Trump doesnt crush like im speculating, and only takes about half the delegates, his momentum will still be immense. Since he won a few caucuses, the notion that trump is a "joke candidate" has all but vanished. Whenever someone says that in public, they're met with the obv response, "yeah, well he beat x in NH/GA/SC". Not only is he real now, but hes winning, and soon its going to be Cruz and Rubio who are the joke candidates becasue they cant beat a man who is good friends with the likely Democratic Nominee.
Inb4 Trump takes texas.
I considered the "Trump wins have legitimized him" thing a while ago. As of now, it seems more that his increase in popularity coincides with the ex-Democrat racism strongholds in the Deep South and Appalachia. It appears he was greatly helped in those states by his recent KKK stuff. He also is strong in the NE because he's a jerk and they love jerks. We're not sure how he does in the rest of the country, but there is strong reason to believe that Cruz or Rubio without the other in the race beats him there.
If you think Trump takes Texas, you're not paying attention.
It should also be noted that Ted taking Texas shows that the media is responsible for electing candidates, since Texas is the one place where everybody knows Cruz regardless of what the media says. Which is funny since Florida is the one place where they know Rubio regardless of the media, and they know he lied to them and he's losing big time because of it.
Cruz just passed Trump in OK
YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS
BTW JKDS it should be noted that Trump's super popularity isn't some sort of "the GOP is stupid like that" thing. He's getting enormous turnout from crossover Dems. They're the old school racism, protectionism, nationalism Dems for the most part. Notice how low the Democratic primaries turnouts out. There is also some speculation (but no evidence to back it up) that some Dems who support Clinton are voting for Trump since it's obvious she will win the nomination already and they want the easiest way to the WH in Trump.
Quote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
:highfive:Quote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
:h:
And he's gaining ground. Looks like the Shy Tory effect (conservatives somehow not being polled yet showing up at the election).
Ya, didn't take texas. That was a longshot, but thought it could happen. Trump still crushed tho, again doing better than expected, and once again cruz and rubio underperformed.
The Trumptrolls were quiet last night because in their minds Trump underperformed and Cruz overperformed. They know their hero is vulnerable and won't be able to run away from the coming debate. According to polls, Cruz greatly overperformed, according to what I was expecting, Cruz wasn't too far off. I haven't looked at things yet today, but if what the media was saying last night is any barometer, they have no idea what they're looking at since this looks like to them a big win for Cruz and big loss for Rubio. Rubio was losing long before this and should never have been expected to do better, but they didn't see the obvious.
Anyways, onto the analysis. Notice how Cruz wins the closed primaries (Oklahoma and Alaska). The majority of the remaining states are closed. Cruz won't win the ones in the NE, but in a HU race, he would sweep pretty much all the plains and mountain and coastal west, Midwest, and maybe Florida. If consolidation happens soon, Trump won't even get above 1000 delegates (needs ~1200).
That said, the election will likely come down to who wins California or Florida and California. If Trump wins Florida, Cruz could still take California; and if Cruz wins Florida, he will probably win California. So, this will go all the way to the end. The way Cruz wins Florida on March 15 is if Rubio drops out and Rick Scott endorses Cruz, neither of which may happen. Regardless, there is time left and some debates and Trump and Rubio are weak. Cruz is on pace.
It should be noted that a contested convention can't happen now unless Kasich has a serious surge in the Midwest. Rubio needs to endorse Ted. Once the race gets into the winner-take-all states, Rubio will be too weak to stop Trump from sweeping if he's still in.
How disgusted I'll be if the RNC prefers a Trump nomination to a Cruz one, and thus pressures Rubio to stay in so that Trump can dominate the WTA states.
Trumpito no like the closed primaries
http://www.redstate.com/uploads/2016...er-Tuesday.png
Nevada doesn't count for two reason: (1) there were wide reports of foul play; (2) it's basically home field advantage for Trump (along with NY).
Fantastic analysis on where Trump's additional votes are coming from
http://www.redstate.com/neil_stevens...ng-win-states/
I didn't realize Florida falls on the same day as some other big ones. If Rubio and Kasich don't drop out before March 15 and if they don't take their respective states (and maybe Kasich taking Illinois too), the election will be over with a Trump win. Cruz may be able to get neck and neck in delegates by that point, but if Trump takes those huge winner-take-all states, there aren't enough WTA states favorable for Cruz.
"I've made a huge mistake."
https://i.imgur.com/fTRJvCR.jpg
Christie's POV leading up to the above:Quote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
http://www.memepile.com/pics/5916-o.jpg
I've been saying some mean things about Trump. I wouldn't mind if a Trump supporter were to give an argument for how I'm wrong. I mean, I am open to the idea that it's not wrong to play both sides of a white supremacist thing as a means to an end. I just haven't been convinced of it.
I was wrong about this not able to go to brokered convention anymore. Internal Rubio and Kasich polls may or may not be showing that they are close to winning their respective home states. That, along with Cruz taking lots of western states and them the homestretch of California not being handed to Trump could get a convention. Somehow I doubt they'll both win their states though.
I'm gonna ROFL when Cruz gets the brokered convention nomination. He's the one guy who can get the most delegate defection his way. He's not an overwhelming second choice of any camp (except probably Trump), but he is a choice that every camp is satisfied with.
So, looking more at how delegates operate at the convention, it looks unlikely that Trump would get the nomination even if he got the 1,237 delegate count from state wins. It is likely that many of them would abstain from voting. Doing so is a misdemeanor but is never punished. The majority of Trump's delegates will be chosen by party elites instead of Trump or his supporters. The party can easily stop Trump from getting the nomination regardless of how many delegates he "wins" in the states.
Just stopping by to check in on wufwugy's blog. Trump's still winning, suck it
Because the conservative vote is split.
Trump's winning status so far is like a team that wins the Super Bowl when the opposing team's star quarterback was out of the game due to injury. It's a nominal win at best.
If Cruz can beat Trump in Kansas, Kentucky, and Louisiana today, I think he takes the nomination. He'll likely win Kansas, but the other two are gonna be hard and will require Cruz having gained non-insignificant momentum from his ST wins, his stellar debate, his CPAC performance, and the closed nature of the primaries/caucuses tonight. If these are enough for a surprise win in those states, there may be enough momentum behind him to beat Trump that voters start dropping the other candidates.
I don't think it's going to happen, but it can. The stars have to align. The half dozen or so pro-Cruz elements existing now that didn't before ST would have to all be enough to add up to Cruz closing an approximately 15 point gap.
If Cruz can somehow win the weirdest state in the union (Maine), it'll be over. Trump should be able to win that one even if he shat on the governor's forehead on national television. Maine might as well be Mars.
Am I wrong, or does the establishment hate cruz almost as much as they hate trump?
You are correct. They would probably back Cruz if the last available option was Trump or Cruz, but not a second before that. It's why their current strategy is Rubio to win Florida, Kasich Ohio, and for Romney to sweep in at a brokered convention like a white knight. The hilarious thing is that they actually think Romney would be acceptable and electable after that. More like roflnope.
They hate him even more than they hated Reagan. They hate limited government conservatism since they're at heart totalitarians, but they especially hate Cruz since he has actively thwarted their totalitarian agenda in the Senate. There's also stuff about them thinking he's not electable and that he's not Washington-first/country-second like every good party man should be.
If we're using heuristics, one of the main ways conservatives can see that Cruz is the right guy is because so many of the elites who are religiously wrong and proud of it loathe him.
The reason they like Rubio more than Cruz (despite the fact that they're mostly similar on policy) is that they view Rubio as a team player and malleable. They view Cruz as selfish and incorrigible. Cruz gets so much grassroots support because voters see him as a team player (on Team People instead of Team GOP) and unwilling to grab his ankles.
Probably the reason they would back Cruz before Trump is because they view Trump as even less electable and that he would crush down ballot races (due to poor turnout as well as high Democrat crossover turnout). For a while they were willing to back Trump over Cruz, but the more Trump opened his mouth, the more he showed he's weak on virtually everything. He knows nothing on policy, is a weak debater, and has 10x more baggage than Hillary, which the MSM will trot out the day after Trump would win the nomination. They believe (rightly so) that minority turnout against Trump would probably exceed the 2008 gap. Trump plays to the worst of human nature.
If Trump is nominated, I will hope for a Clinton win. Even though there would then be no hope for a generation for the court to overturn some of its federal authoritarian stances, it'll mean Cruz will ride a wave into the WH in 2020.
If Rubio never did the Gang of Eight thing, he would have 2x delegates of anybody and be cruising to victory so easily. It isn't even his position on immigration that conservatives loathe so much, but how much he lied and was underhanded about it all. Honestly, I think that when it first came up in the debates, if instead of obfuscating and claiming Cruz was on his side (when eeeeeeeeverybody knows better), if he had just owned it and said he did the wrong thing and has learned and asks for forgiveness, I think he would have emerged as the conservative leader instead of Cruz.
Hot damn DecisionDeskHQ already called Kansas for Cruz with 17% reporting. Cruz: 50%, Trump 25% so far.
Ted with nearly 20 point lead in Maine with 5% reporting. Hooooooold!
And you didn't think it could happen.Quote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
Now he's closing in on LA and KY, which we both considered lost. I think early voting had Trump up almost 25% over Cruz. He has narrowed that to 6%.
Cruz coming away with ~15 more delegates than Trump did today. Cruz blasting through each of the polls by double digits. Cruz doing this even with high spoiler effect from Rubio and Kasich. Trump giving a particularly low energy press conference. Trump playing reverse psychology by calling for others to drop out so he can have Cruz mano a mano.
http://www.redstate.com/uploads/2016...mp-620x433.jpg
So glad I was wrong.Quote:
Originally Posted by FeliciaLee
I mostly just figured Maine would go as New Hampshire goes. This may be a lesson that Maine has the libertarian streak that New Hampshire is said to have, and that New Hampshire's we-heart-governments/we-heart-jerks Massachusetts immigration has changed its politics significantly.
Ditto.Quote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
The states Trump was predicted a big win totally turned tide and the race was close (w/i 4%). The states Cruz won were by a landslide. Finally people might be waking up. Now I just have to convince my dad to rescind his support of Trump and return to Cruz.
If anybody cares, this shows how Cruz can win if Trump takes both Florida and Ohio (and Rubio and Kasich drop out the next day). This mirrors my back of napkin assessment of who takes which states, except I think Cruz could possibly take Illinois. Also it is possible that when we're late in the game, some of the NE states will start going towards Cruz.
If Trump is viewed like he was yesterday and Cruz is too, heads up Cruz would stomp Trump in most of the NE. But we can't rely on Trump looking as utterly awful then as he did after Thursday's debate.
It ain't over yet. The worthless media convinced lots of people it was.
Edit: note that the Puerto Rico results are wrong. They don't change the equation though.
http://www.redstate.com/uploads/2016...State-JPG1.jpg
I honestly mean this as a constructive critique and as evidence of that fact I point out that I agree with the sentiment in the quoted-- with that being said, as someone who often finds truth in the margins, avoid being written off as a conspiracy kook by avoiding phrases like this.Quote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
I revise Trumps chances from 95% to 80% in light of recent developments. Hillary is still >95%.
Romney Vs Clinton, 2016
Bookit
I'm not sure what you're getting at.Quote:
Originally Posted by boost
Just one small example, but you get the gist. This isn't a conspiracy theory, it's just a fact.Quote:
Originally Posted by boost
Attachment 881
attachment no work
Damn son, Mississippi Gov just endorsed Cruz (it votes tomorrow). Four Senators are said to be on docket to endorse Cruz soon (it's gotta be Mike Lee, Ben Sasse, and two others).
https://i.imgur.com/7drHiqrh.jpg
Really? It works fine on my side. I must be doing something wrong.Quote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
http://images.dailykos.com/images/18...jpg?1450196146
By alleging facts which you cannot possibly prove, and believing them wholeheartedly, you will sound like a kook who cannot be believed.
But the media is garbage and they did convince lots of people the race was over. This position is highly demonstrable. A friend wanting to look into the elections asked me for a good media source. Guess what my answer was. None. Even the main sources I consume right now are unapologetic biased trash. In order to parse your way through current events, you really have to consume a wide variety of media -- including opinion media and pure documentation of events -- and contrast them with each other. The context in which I called the media garbage this time is that if you pay attention to media treatment of the GOP race, it is hilariously bad. Like, way worse than one would think if just told about it in detail. These blowhards en masse are deliberately reporting the wrong things and rooting for their teams at all costs -- not to mention issue incompetency in many instances.Quote:
Originally Posted by JKDS
So I'm not really sure what you're getting at.
See, but it doesn't matter if it's demonstrably false, it's off message and almost never is going to be challenged, but instead will just colour the listener's view of you and your opinion. Read the same post without that side comment, and nothing is lost. This probably could be clipped and merged with the persuasion thread-- you've got interesting things to say, but you clutter your message with distracting, off message, cheap shots. Whether you are or not, you are unnecessarily going to be written off as a kook, with nothing gained but pats on the back from the choir.
That's a fair assessment. I talk a lot differently when I'm trying to convince people of things. I've been letting myself get rougher with this thread since it has sorta become me bouncing things off the wall for myself but also with hopes something will stick for somebody else.
It's funny, I possibly put Trump chances to lose at 80%.Quote:
Originally Posted by Renton
I'm at 50% Cruz wins, 30% brokered convention going to somebody other than Trump.
Trump's path doesn't look so hot IMO. Winning Ohio and Florida would probably hurt him since it would make the race heads up and Cruz would beat him most everywhere, including some NE states probably. Rubio winning Florida would probably give Trump the best chance at winning since Rubio would stay in to the end. This would likely end up in a brokered convention but it could give Trump enough plurality wins in WTA states. Granted it could also result in Rubio winning outright by way of abandonment of Cruz in all but the most Mountain Westy conservative states, giving Rubio lots of NE wins and shutting Trump out. Regardless, it looks like Rubio will not be winning Florida.
If Rubio loses Florida and Kasich wins Ohio, this could still lead to brokered convention, but likely with Cruz leading in delegates. Or Cruz could just win outright since Kasich is somewhat spoiler for Trump from the left. If both Kasich and Rubio win their respective states, things would be messy but probably still Trump at <50% equity since brokered convention would be likely or there would still be consolidation around Cruz by conscious effort of the voters. The GOPe is making a huge mistake by pursuing a brokered convention; everybody can see that except them.
Apparently Ross Douthat came to the same conclusion today:
http://douthat.blogs.nytimes.com/201...evisited/?_r=0
I'm more bullish on this finishing before convention (usually going to Cruz) than him though. Voter consolidation will often happen for the purpose of beating Trump and avoiding a brokered convention. On conservative sites, I've been seeing a lot over the last few days of hardcore Rubio supporters moving to Cruz. Rubio's campaign is finished, he just doesn't know it yet.Quote:
After Florida and Ohio we’ll either finally have a three-man field (because Rubio will have lost), or we’ll finally have a two-man field (because Rubio and Kasich will have lost), or Rubio and Kasich will both have won and Trump will be badly wounded by their victories … and all three of those scenarios, in different ways, seem likely to keep the current delegate leader from reaching 1,237.
Wuf, you should put heavy money on Cruz to win the nomination via Bodog with your estimations.
Would if could.
Actually even then I wouldn't. I discovered by MMA betting that I lose enjoyment from the sport when I've got money on it. Plus it heightens stress a great deal.
I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that Trump winning Florida and Ohio most certainly does not hurt him
The only way this would be true is if Rubio and Kasich stayed in the race. It's not entirely impossible that they would do that, but their purpose would be to get Romney that brokered convention instead of letting Cruz demolish Trump.Quote:
Originally Posted by Deanglow
If it's heads up between Trump and Cruz after Ohio and Florida, Cruz STOMPS Trump there on out. It wouldn't even be close. If it could be guaranteed that Rubio and Kasich would leave the race after Trump wins their respective states, Cruz would be such a lock to beat Trump that betting the house on him would be solid bankroll management.
The problem is it can't be guaranteed Rubio and Kasich will leave the race even if they lose every state. The signs are clear that the RNC's strategy now revolves around a brokered convention. The RNC knows that it can't nominate its establishment Romney/McCain/Dole robot by winning states since Cruz and Trump are too powerful, yet it would also rather die a fiery death than let the party be run by somebody other than a party insider. Hence, all its eggs are in the brokered convention basket now and Rubio and Kasich are doing the RNC's bidding.
WRT Cruz stomping Trump HU: recent polls have Cruz blasting Trump 54% to 41% and 57% to 40% IIRC. All Cruz/Trump HU polls have shown the same and they're consistent with crosstabs regarding elements of Trump's support.
If it was HU after today, the only states Trump would beat Cruz in are
Florida (maybe; Trump's racism has helped him tremendously in the South)
New York (probably)
New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Connecticut, Rhode Island (who knows what they would do; likely a few would go Cruz though)
North Carolina (probably not though since the Tidewater regional racism isn't of the same exact blend as the Deep South's)
Everything else would go Cruz.
Honestly though I could see Cruz sweeping all the Northeast states HU. Trump's real >50% strength comes from Dixiecrat regions. Acela Republicans in the NE wouldn't be so enticed by Trump.
If Trump wins FL and OH he will have a ~300 delegate lead. Your Cruz love reminds me of Reddit's for Bernie.
1237 wins the nomination, not a 300 lead. Trump would have an arithmetically challenged time at breaking 1000 delegates if it went HU at that point based on that 300 lead not being large enough when added to his likely remaining delegates to win.Quote:
Originally Posted by Deanglow
If you wish to make a case for how this is not so, you have to argue for how Trump has good equity to win some states that I am saying he doesn't, so that he could turn that 300 lead into a 1237 total.
Compare standard math and logic to Redditing at your own peril.
Not all enthusiastic support is created equal. The typical Redditor supports Bernie for his technically incorrect policy positions. I support Cruz for his technically correct policy positions.
I think the burden of proof is on you to explain the math of how Cruz can possibly win the nomination down 720 to 430 after wins in FL and OH. There's still NC, NY, and NJ left after that. AZ is very anti-immigrant. April is WI, CT, DE, MD, PE and RI which are hardly Cruz friendly. Cruz can only win in a brokered convention
I posted such just two days ago. It's on this page.Quote:
Originally Posted by Deanglow
As for some of your specific states, AZ, PA, and WI go to Cruz HU easily. Trump's support isn't "anti-immigrant" like the popular media suggests. He's weaker on illegal aliens than Trump is and the Southwest knows it. Besides, immigration isn't their chief concern. AZ sensibilities reflect TX, OK, KS sensibilities far more than states Trump has won. The same goes for WI and PA. Trump would not break 50% in the Midwest.
Cruz's ability to win a brokered convention would come only if he has better delegate selection than the rest by a significant count. he is doing so i.e. a lot of delegates pledged to Trump and Rubio are Cruz supporters before RNC supporters. So, Cruz could win a brokered convention if he comes into it leading in delegates and on the second ballot, enough do not want the RNC to steal it so they go to Cruz.
What are your thoughts on TYT and Secular Talk?
Well, that chart does force me to agree that if Trump somehow loses literally every winner-take-all state and only gets 30-55% in every other state then yes, Cruz can win.
Same on my Twitter feed. Now if I could just convince my Dad. His anger at the establishment and surety that Cruz can't win the nomination has driven him to Trump :(Quote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
This is something that the Trump supporters ignore or deny whole-cloth. While I harbor no illusions that Cruz may not win the nom, much less the general, it seems that convincing Trump supporters of any facts whatsoever is impossible.Quote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
Do we really need another cult of personality?
My husband and I are volunteering here in NC to make sure that Cruz has a chance. We've had a yard sign for months, talk to people, wear our gear and plan to do a more intensive canvassing when the official call for help comes our way.Quote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
Don't be too sure. We may back Cruz, but conservatives don't tend to do cults of personality. Cruz can be underhanded, acts like a douchebag sometimes and I wish I could give him a wedgie when he gets smarmy/too big for his pants.Quote:
Originally Posted by Deanglow
But he is a strict constitutionalist, who will do the best for our country even when it is against his personal desires.
Cruz:
anti-abortion rights
wants to build a wall to keep illegals out
doesn't believe in universal healthcare
he denies climate change
As a Canadian, I ask you don't vote this guy in.
Not all abortion is made equal. A good starting place to see that the "pro-choice" crowd doesn't have the market cornered on being right is that the movement supports partial-birth abortion. Partial-birth abortion is murder. There are no two ways around it. When you induce birth in order to kill, you have murdered.Quote:
Originally Posted by BankItDrew
Neither side has appropriately defined what it means to be a human person. But it should be clear that some of what people think of as "abortion rights" is straight up murder. Probably what the law should say is something like an abortion cut off at 4-5 months. If you look at American conservatism, that's mostly what their "anti-abortion" efforts amount to.
Keyword: illegals. This has nothing to do with immigration (of which conservatives are mostly highly in favor of). This is about the rule of law and not giving special treatment or bad economic incentives.Quote:
wants to build a wall to keep illegals out
The Canadian government does your healthcare system no favors by being involved in it. Your system hasn't collapsed because it's subsidized by other competitive market forces. We've already seen what happens when government programs are not subsidized by other competitive market forces. That's what the USSR was.Quote:
doesn't believe in universal healthcare
Not really. His position is nuanced and specific. The bottom line is that the left is out to lunch on this issue. The alarmism is totally unfounded and their suggested solutions, if fully implemented, would lead to catastrophe that would pale the Great Depression. They're also just straight up wrong on the facts and metrics. The sustainable energy cult is anything but sustainable and "green".Quote:
he denies climate change
It isn't even that Cruz is the best guy in the field, but that Cruz is once in a generation. As a half-lay half-academic student of economics, history, and the social sciences, I'm blown away at how well Cruz understands the issues.
I used to be a big TYT fan. That's part of how I can say that it's incompetent journalism. It is also my pick for the single most biased popular news/opinion source. It's not even as bad as Hannity and O'Reilly taking their marching orders from Rupert Murdoch to prop up Rubio at all costs and denigrate Cruz at all costs. The fantasies Cenk puts out are just that bad.Quote:
Originally Posted by BankItDrew
TYT was my jam for quite a while though. You gotta go through the swamp to get out the other side, I guess.
Funny that. It's almost like the cult of personality going on right now is a national socialist (Trump). Not too much unlike the previous socialist's cult of personality that propelled him into the White House (Obama).Quote:
Originally Posted by FeliciaLee
American conservatism isn't conducive to cult of personality because it's fundamentally anti-authoritarian and a cult of personality is fundamentally pro-authoritarian. This goes back to the roots of the Constitution, so it's not new.
Try this on: Cruz is the most electable person in the entire race. How do you know somebody is electable but by how efficient and effective and consistent he has been? Cruz has the most money in his campaign coffers, spends the least, has every aspect of the RNC fighting against him tooth and nail, and yet by grassroots support alone he is crushing fools far beyond expectations. He's beating his poll numbers by significant margins and he's gaining supporters by greater margins than opponents.Quote:
Originally Posted by FeliciaLee
The dude is a juggernaut. In the general against Hillary, he would fare better than Rubio. Pay no attention to the polls giving Rubio +6 on her and Cruz only +1. The real results will be in the details. Those polls reflect the merest of superficial views. By the time the election comes around, Rubio would end up underperforming the polls because he's bad at running a campaign, bad with money, bad at grassroots, bad at energizing, bad at lots of things. Cruz would blast through his "ceiling" by being good at all those things.
As for the nomination, Cruz is the guy running the most "winningest" campaign. He's getting the most grassroots support, he's doing the best with delegate selection, he's doing the best with money, he's kicking butt everywhere. Cruz's campaign is what a winning campaign looks like. Rubio's and Trump's and Kasich's do not. If one of them get the nomination, most of us will say "how did that happen? look at them, they shouldn't have been able to win that." But if Cruz wins we'll all say "that's makes sense, he did everything right."
Cruz ain't gonna win unless he gets peoples' support. But he's gonna win because he is getting peoples' support. That may not be this election cycle, but it will be in a future one at least. It's the same path Reagan took. He lost the nomination before he won it. Now we have a chance to skip the losing part.
Here are some links on Rubio's position:Quote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
http://www.reviewjournal.com/opinion...ine-just-poker
http://www.breitbart.com/big-governm...ernet-casinos/
http://calvinayre.com/2015/10/27/bus...-rawa-backers/
Cruz is too swarmy to be elected. Ain't gonna happen.
What are these? The best I can think of as underhanded was the Iowa voter score cards, but that's used by pretty much every politician and isn't underhanded but instead a little tasteless.Quote:
Originally Posted by FeliciaLee
I don't recall thinking of him being smarmy in any particular instance. I mean, I know that's the picture painted of him, but after I started paying attention to him I don't recall seeing it.
Cruz and Rubio did well tonight. But Trump understands he just needs to go low variance and switch to general election mode. Can't wait for Tuesday
Yeah, I was really turned off by the card. It wasn't just the typical one either, but one of the harshest I've seen. Then his blind defense of it. Those campaign fundraising e-mails/snail mails. Eww.Quote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
But I know without a doubt who is the best person for our president.
I'm not sure that Trump's 180 turn away from his bombastic style will help him. It lets policy take a more central role, which makes him look worse since he's outmatched on policy.
It looks like Trump is banking on the RNC backing him in a contested convention. McConnell is going in his direction. I don't think it will work though. I see Cruz winning outright or having the delegate lead going into the convention then lots of Rubio and Trump delegates moving to Cruz instead of Trump delegates staying on Trump and taking the additional RNC delegates. This is why delegate selection is so important.
There's a rumor that Rubio intends to drop out after Florida even if he wins. He's pulled out of Cruz's territory and Cruz has pulled out of Florida. Bush's brother endorsed Cruz and Jeb met with them a couple days ago. This could be the case that Rubio thinks he can keep the 99 delegates out of Trump's hands, select them wisely, then they will switch to Cruz in case of a contested convention. At least this is the way it should go, as Rubio and Cruz are about 100x more alike than Rubio and McConnell or Rubio and Trump.