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One more post about the nightkill and I'll leave it at that:
Maybe I'm just thinking about this too first level, but it makes no sense to me why the wolf wouldn't want to get a villager who didn't vote for Luco at F3.
As it stands, it looks really likely that the F3 will come from the Luco wagon.
Who as a wolf would be thinking about this, and who would try to win in this way?
Heres what I see. These are the only posts talking about luco prior to his lynch.
This is either standard FPS from ong where he does something 'no wolf would ever do, for the luls', or its just a legit comment about how the top of the player list is screwed. Dunno. Its one of the first posts though, and I feel like its just an ice breaker type of thing.Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
Not getting any info from this post due to luco's revealQuote:
Originally Posted by baudib
But this is the only defense of luco posted this game. Its made when hes only got 1 (2?) votes on him though, and its not even a serious wagon.Quote:
Originally Posted by baudib
See
We got this...Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoopy
Putting luco in the lead, while urging MMM. Doesnt really seem like mmm is getting lynched though, even though its 3-2. I actually liked this post a ton, and felt it was super indicative of gator being a villager. I can see it as him being a wolf and setting up a future mmm death (you know, it could even be a soft defense of luco with the hope that mmm beinga villa clears luco), but I dont see it.Quote:
Originally Posted by GatorJH
Not surprised still. I loved the reasoning. Maybe I didnt give mmm enough credit, but seems good to me.Quote:
Originally Posted by GatorJH
Could be a wolfy hammer. But I doubt it.Quote:
Originally Posted by gabe
-----
I mean, I can see reasons for why each of gabe/gator/ong could be a wolf. But everyone left is tricky, and my gut says theyre all villas.
God damn it, i like those 3 posts.
Its easier to say who wouldnt. I dont think rascal kills BID.Quote:
Originally Posted by baudib
Ok, im fired up now.
rescind Baudib
Rescind rascal
I need to take another look at the mmm train.
That's so fucking weird you would say that. The BiD kill is really the only thing that makes me think Rascal could be a wolf. Here are BID's last 3 posts.
Quote:
Originally Posted by BankItDrew
Quote:
Originally Posted by BankItDrew
Looking at it Level 1 I think Rascal would totally kill BID for these posts.Quote:
Originally Posted by BankItDrew
Nother fpsQuote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
discredit the wagon; so does gator, so does gabe.Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
This seems so not wolfyyyyyQuote:
Originally Posted by GatorJH
But this is a big response to my attack on ong, and it doesnt seem to click. NOw that I think about it, it does seem like its more of a thought out response...rather than what I expect to be an emotional response.Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
BAUDIB; talk to me about gabe. I love gator for villager still, but gabe looks weird too. He hammered luco for no reason, pushed mmm along, and nothing he says has matched what i think this game. I've been towning him cuz of meta and the luco wagon, but maybe im wrong here too
The real problem for me in this game was A. I didn't really give a shit and only inned at the last minute to make it a game B. we lynched the wolf basically randomly, with no interactions to speak of C. interactions have been slow, with nothing to really talk about.
I'm not gonna claim to be great at reading Gator.
I've usually been on different sides than Gabe; last game I was super comfortable with him being a villager (honestly, it was probably one of the best games I've ever had as far as reads) and have something of the same sort of feel here
I'm OK reading Rascal
JKDS -- never seen him wolf
Ong -- he just likes to be my personal nemesis.
I dont know why rascal would want the entire luco train alive, just because BID wanted him dead. Lots of people had votes on rascal, myself included.Quote:
Originally Posted by baudib
BID was practically confirmed villa tho by almost everyone. The onyl person who tried to discredit that was gabe (iirc)
I'm not going to blame him or Gator, I'll take as much credit for the MMM lynch as anyone. But I never really had a grasp on why Gator wanted MMM lynched (I asked him about it yesterday). What Gabe said about MMM really seemed to click with me because I thought the same thing. Master manipulation, or we just totally mind melded as villagers.Quote:
Originally Posted by JKDS
Last game Gabe was super active (by his standards) so it was really easy for me to read him as villager. I don't get any sense of wolfy vibe from Gabe, but obviously he's pretty good.
Probably worth pointing out, him telling me and Ong to knock it off is somewhat reminiscent of my first full game here. I was terrible, and Wuf and I tunneled each other relentlessly. Gabe was a wolf playing "wise village elder" and saying, "hey you kids knock it off."
I guess the test will be whether he tries to reassess everyone or just plow through the PoE in short order and play it by ear at F3.
I have no idea what the vote count is, or how much time is left. Are you dead, or can we still shift this to ong?
Hoopys last post said 48 hours from yesterday, so we still got a full day.
I think I have 3 votes. I don't know who Gabe is actually voting for based on his last post (rescind all, vote the thing, win).
Ong has a lot of villagery posts IMO. But he seems super motivated this game, which I can't really reconcile with him being a villager.
Him wanting a basically solo win as a wolf would do it though.
^^ I could probably say the same about JKDS tooQuote:
Originally Posted by baudib
Im reading through again, and im not seeing it. They all seem preemptively defensive, like 'over-explainy'. His fight with you looks god awful too.Quote:
Originally Posted by baudib
As far as motivation, he loves winning regardless of role.
JK, you might be right about the BiD kill, I probably need to stop thinking about it.
If you think Rascal is unlikely to kill BiD, then you should probably just hard clear him and be happy to take him to F3.
He's been AFK but his tone/posting-investigative style are pretty much like his villager game.
I mean in a vacuum they look villagery and is the reason he's been called a villager by almost everyone in the game.Quote:
Originally Posted by JKDS
They start to look funny only when you think about how Ong actually posts as a villager.
I would go back and look at that Varchertine game but I've tried to block that out of my memory.
My biggest concern with him is that there isnt the adorable-grandma type of help he usually provides. No color coded vote counts, etc. But he is busy, and that shit takes work.
Meanwhile ong has 3 posts laughing about how awesome the bid kill was.
I skimmed a bit of it just now.
lynch Ong
I've clearly not been payng attention to his game recently. HIs posts are way more paranoia based here, and dont have any conviction. There isnt any focus to the attacks. Like, hes gone after me a few times with silly things but none of them had any teeth. Villa ong doesnt do that, he only attacks when he feels there is reason to attack. Hes a lot more reactionary too as a villa, often starting wars if he gets suspected.
I have 2 concerns regarding Ong
1. He's a villager and I somehow survive to F3 and he just snap votes me
2. He's a wolf and Gator and Gabe have already hard cleared him and will be suspicious of each other
I'm not too worried about either one, but those are the scenarios I see causing problems.
I dont have a shot at end game either. I've dont jack to clear myself this game. Best plan is probably still to off the two of us, but fuck it, I think ongs a wolf.
Votecount 2.1
2
Ong - (JKDS, baudib)
baudib - (Gator, Ong)
1
JKDS - (baudib)
lilrascal - (baudib)
About 26 hours left.
Quote:
Originally Posted by baudib
You mean early in the day when I was telling people he was town?
Or when there was five minutes of the day left?
Wolf it up harder please.
I have no fucking idea what JKDS is playing at here but I'm pretty sure he's a villager.
How interesting that baudib is voting for JKDS and me, as well as rascal. baudib doesn't give a fuck who gets lynched so long as it's not him. I don't care if I get lynched so long as he's next.
I'm glad jkds doesn't think I'm a villager any more. That leaves only drew who can read me, and noone listens to him anyway.
jkds how can you say I have no conviction? I dunno if you noticed, but I think baudib is a wolf, and everyone else town. Even you suddenly turning on me isn't shifting that position. This is as much conviction as you can expect from me. Maybe d1 I was less confident, I dunno why that would alarm you.
This is a really weird thing for baudib to say. I've been banging on all day how wolfy he is, and he's been saying my attack on him is wolfy, now he says my posts are villagery and it's my motivation that's wolfy. Even though this is exactly as motivated as I was last time me and baudib shat all over the thread.Quote:
Originally Posted by baudib
baudib doesn't even know why he thinks I'm wolfy, he's just desperately trying to tap into other people's paranoia. He's succeeded with JKDS but I predict JKDS will wake up before end of day because JKDS knows how to tone read me. If JKDS persists with this, well I guess he could be a wolf who is hoping to get rid of me, leaving rascal and baudib. But I'm really feeling JKDS villager tone here.
Let's crunch numbers. How many mislynches does the wolf need?
Let's say I die next, then baudib and he fucking flips village. That leaves gabe, gator, rascal and jkds for f4, with two lynches to get it right.
Yeah we're good, gabe and gator have got this.
Whatever. Wolf can't win unless wolf is one of gator or gabe, which it's not. Lynch me for all I care.
I forgot the nom. Wolf noms one of gator or gabe.
Ok wolf needs three mislynches, so if JKDS is the wolf he has a chance if he can get rid of me.
Bravo JKDS, you just added yourself to my lynch pool too.
ThisQuote:
Originally Posted by JKDS
JKDS, This is FPS. We HAVE to lynch baudib with this lynch if for no other reason than to force Ong (or Gabe or myself) to try and focus on someone else. If Baudib really is a villager then there shouldn't be any snap decisions for the next one, but he is still miles away the best choice for now.Quote:
Originally Posted by JKDS
The fact that he doesn't fully embrace that bothers me. He says he does, but as soon as he gets anyone on the hook for anyone else he runs with it. He did the same thing yesterday with Rascal.
Baudib has to die today. It is the best move for the village.
I agree with Gator.
rescind Rascal
I don't see how you can possibly think this. I told Rascal to maj me.Quote:
Originally Posted by GatorJH
Quote:
Originally Posted by baudib
Quote:
Originally Posted by baudib
Quote:
Originally Posted by baudib
Quote:
Originally Posted by baudib
Quote:
Originally Posted by baudib
Quote:
Originally Posted by baudib
Quote:
Originally Posted by baudib
You can't make me believe that these aren't subtle attempts to get Rascal to move from you to me.Quote:
Originally Posted by baudib
Gator, you're just going to have to accept the fact that I think you're a villager and I don't think anyone should lynch you. Sorry.
Noone is going to lynch gator. Nor gabe. For the wolf to win, I need to get lynched.
It's baudib or jkds on that basis alone. Rascal has positioned himself to maybe go for gabe or gator, but it's a bold move for a wolf because he's not going to get any support.
baudib is buddying up to Gator. Such a wolfish move. :)Quote:
Originally Posted by baudib
Nah, Im electing to lynch wolves. Fuck maximizing endgame, the day we start doing that is the day we change the game name to were-wugy.
I think there is strong psychological bias going on though that is clouding our judgment. Think of someone you hate for a moment. No matter what that person does, it always seems like theyre incompetent, or they're gonna fuck up, right? This is because people tend to see the absolute worst in people in they dont like, while simultaneously seeing the best in people they do like. Idols, for example, can do no wrong.
Back to this game, baudib is super unlikeable. From calling everyone morons, to telling us to 'read the thread', going "gl gl gl", and constantly gloating about how awesome he is on some forum no one cares about, we hate him. That makes it so much easier to see him as the person thats tricking us, but im not sure hes it.
If we narrowed it down to ong v baudib, ong's done things that make far less sense from a villager than baudib has. Ong had to do less work to craft the level. And the bid kill makes so much more sense coming from Ong than from Baudib. BID is someone recognized both by himself and ong as someone that could read ong well. It makes a ton of sense for a wolf ong to kill BID while he was reading him as villa, while also leaving every player on the luco lynch alive for cover. It makes little sense for Baudib to kill him though, since he doesnt see BID as threatening and because it leaves eveyrone that lynched luco still standing. Its almost suicidal for baudib to do that, and I feel like such a kill makes a baudib lynch today almost guaranteed.
I'm actually not that awesome on some other forum, I just never get mislynched or even wagoned. I get forced to live to the end of every fucking game because wolves apparently aren't scared of me. It's the height of mediocrity.
were-wugy made me laugh tho
rescind JKDS
I feel like baudib-wolf kills someone on the luco wagon 100% of the time, but if the wolf lynched luco, that wolf kills someone NOT on the luco wagon 100% of the time.
Prior to last night, the top picks were rascal and baudib. Rascal wasnt on the wagon either. Its almost obvious that this day would go like its going due to this kill.
btw you guys can blame me if Rascal somehow slips through as the last wolf. But I don't see any wolfy posts from him at all.
If Rascal were fully engaged and active in this game I'd say there was no way he'd kill BiD either, because most of his experience comes from playing turbos and turbos (which are vanilla 9ers) are all about fundamental mechanical play. you basically always kill someone who voted the wolf.
btw it should be
"glgl"
not
"gl gl gl"
get it right clowns
sigh it's JKDS. What choice does he have?
fwiw I don't hate baudib. I like the guy. We just clash in ww because he's so fucking wolfy and I'm so fucking mouthy.
I think JKDS is the wolf because I think I'm obviously a villager and JKDS should know that.
I mean at first he wants to keep me around because I like him and think he's a villager. But when push comes to shove, he realises that one of me, gator or gabe has to be mislynched. The other two will be even more difficult than I will, because baudib's vote can be relied on, and maybe even gabe or gator could be swayed if this shitfest is pissing them off.
JKDS' hand is forced here, he can't back away from me even though he knows it's going to be a bitch to get more votes on me.
I've called you a wolf at various points this game. Trying to make it seem like its 'all of a sudden' is evidence that YOUR hand is forced.
It is all of a sudden. You said "I like ong now" and now suddenly you don't. I'm happy we've got this won now. I'm just pissed it wasn't baudib.
rescind baudib
lynch jkds
ez game
haha this game
My hand isn't forced JKDS, what are you talking about? If I'm the wolf, I was cruising, and probably still am. I mean do you think gator, gabe or rascal are voting me ahead of you or baudib? I don't. That might well be misplaced confidence, but if I'm the wolf I can already bank on badib and rascal getting lynched, and should survive against you on final day. If I'm the wolf, this isn't a forced move, you just made it easier for me to lynch you sooner. But I'm not the wolf, you are.
I happen to agree with this, which is why I'm not really sweating on JKDS' move here. I mean I can afford to die so long as you and JKDS do too, and then if wolf is rascal, gabe or gator, well played. It's you or JKDS, and it seems I was wrong about you once again.Quote:
Originally Posted by baudib
Stop being so wolfy.
If it is rascal, then JKDS just made this game more AIDS than anything me and baudib could dream up.
I've literally never done a wolfy thing all game.
There are some games where I say stuff for reaction or to trap people but I haven't thought that deeply about things this game.
I just don't have a filter and just say random thoughts that pop into my head.
JKDS talks about me lacking conviction, but he doesn't believe what he's saying about me.
I mean he posts a two liner post then fucks off. If he thought he had ong wolf bagged, he'd be all over me. All fucking over. He'd be mashing f5 to tear apart every post I made. His post where he highlights my "wolfy" posts, he doesn't actually go into any detail about why he thinks I'm wolfy. It's all very short and sweet. Yeah he's making wall posts, but nearly all of the text is within the quotes. It's me who's actually explaining my thought process, not him.
He's not all over me because his enthusiasm is low. He doesn't think he can win this. I'm going to win, regardless of if I get lynched, and JKDS knows it.
"Im happy we've got this won now" isnt something ong villa says, its something ong wolf says. None of his posts have the feeling that the game is won.Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
Blah blah blah.Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
I've already done all of that.
This is painful JKDS. Just concede. gg.
I probably would have just ignored Ong the rest of the game if he didn't come after me the way he did at SOD.
but yeah, "blah blah blah" pretty much sums up all of his posts since then.
I can prove this wrong by dying and flipping villager.Quote:
Originally Posted by JKDS
I can still win, and will still win, if this were to happen.
There's that conviction for you JKDS. I'm certain I'm going to win.
oh, we're still leveling in this game?
baudib, is it not obviously JKDS to you?
You dont even understand what i mean when i say conviction. The problem is that every single one of your posts doesnt sound genuine. At no point in this game, even right now, have you been excited over a lynch. You've never felt gungho about anyone, even now. You're still making posts like "lol if rascal is the wolf". Those dont mesh with thougths like "the game is over, just concede". Which means its a front. Not even you buy what you're selling.
Ok.
Lynch me first then.
It's not gabe, rascal, or gator, right? We agree there, right?
Conviction means a belief in what one is saying.
I actually thought baudib was the wolf.
Now I actually think the wolf is you.
I actually think I'm going to win.
Conviction.
...
Quote:
Originally Posted by baudib
...
Quote:
Originally Posted by baudib
baudib you just posted literally the wolfiest thing you did this game.
You told someone who had expressed concerns about JKDS that if he went for anyone other than baudib during the day phase, then he is wolfy. You tried to set me up when you would have literally no reason to expact villager ong to attack just one person during an enitre day phase.
What you posted there is utter crap and it seems that you really fucking are deluded enough to think it's somehow pro town.
It's garbage. And you think you're not wolfy? Seriously?
Anway, it's JKDS and I can't read baudib for shit. Nor can he read me for shit, which is some comfort.
I'm done. Wake me up when it's post game.
Wake me up when Ong makes a comprehensible case on someone.
Ong's progression doesn't make any sense to me.
baudib, my case on jkds is very simple, and considering you think yourself as something of a ww god, you should see that he's making a forced move. Even I can see jkds is the wolf, despite me really wanting it to be you for my own sanity. It's jkds. Obviously. It should be even more obvious to you if you're a villager because you know it isn't you. Do you really think this is wolf ong? really? You say I'm not making sense, well was I making sense last time we were villagers? It doesn't make sense that you're wolf reading me, but hey, you are.