***2010 CHRISTMAS WEREWOLF***

lol SDM at you picking segments out of posts.

JKDS could of easily looked me up since he was so sure i was a wolf.

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JVP, gator, yaawn and warpe seem like bad choices today. Fulksy convinced me with his last few defense posts...but i didnt see them until the thread locked, so ima back off him for awhile as well.

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with the XTR vote, i was later on the BW but i had voted for him the day before early, so being late on the second bw is pretty irrelevant, him being a villager doesn't help my cause but don't say its because i was late, he was as good of a choice as any other guy not on my village list and thats why i joined the BW.

and iff you can;t figure out why i changed my vote to boog, lol. i was the other BW, and to be honest boog wasn't high on my list of wolves but i knew 100% i wasn't a wolf so even if i'm only 95% sure he's not a wolf i still have take that bet.

i think that i rationalized my earlier votes enough during that two page back and forth with JKDs your referring to, so I'm not gonna go over that again. we really can't afford to make another mistake so at least look at all the posts, not just snipits of certain ones before you make your decision.

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Originally Posted by Carroters

And yeah if we fuck up today we're screwed so lets get the more likely suspects positng and get as much info as we can and above all, take our time!

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Wtf? You bold me and then you say this? I'm far from a likely suspect. Nobody really wants to hear me explain that I've been busy with work, holidays blah, blah, blah so I'll spare them. I haven't read any farther than this so I don't know if this got a bw going but I'm tired and I want to take a shower so I'll read the rest later. But seriously, I think you're a better suspect than me and I'm pretty sure you're not even a wolf.

Here's a theory for you guys to consider. Dan is the recruit. From the day 1 debacle, he came out as a most likely villager. (makes him nice to recruit) And he usually posts decent-lenght posts with his ideas. But from that point on, he has been sticking to mostly oneliners, casting suscion on many people. (bold gator, he's too quiet, and such) He'd also switch targets constantly. And now he's buttering up to SDM's ludicrous theories. I don't buy that he's a villager anymore.

lynch dan

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Originally Posted by jackvance

Here's a theory for you guys to consider. Dan is the recruit. From the day 1 debacle, he came out as a most likely villager. (makes him nice to recruit) And he usually posts decent-lenght posts with his ideas. But from that point on, he has been sticking to mostly oneliners, casting suscion on many people. (bold gator, he's too quiet, and such) He'd also switch targets constantly. And now he's buttering up to SDM's ludicrous theories. I don't buy that he's a villager anymore.

lynch dan

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I am on board with lynching Dan, but I want to hear Gator's thoughts before I bold

@carroters - its fun to shoot first and paint the target later like you do, if I think warpe is a villager then to you I am a wolf, although you probably think he is a villager as well, I am 100% sure that if I posted something along the lines of Warpe is a wolf then you would say I am trying to lynch the best assest in the village, and if I had not posted at all then I would be a wolf for not posting. I suggest you rethink your theories because I am not a wolf and we do not have any room from error.
A more sensible option is that you are a wolf and try to divert the attention towards me, however I think we have much more likely wolves then you right no

PSA to all:

Gator is not all knowing! The only thing we know for certain about his bolds is that he's not purposefully lynching villagers. I agree in the fact that he's in the top tier of WW players left and his thoughts should be heavily considered, but you can't rely on one man to read the entire thread, make astute assumptions, and blindly follow while he leads us to victory. I have all the faith in the world he's going to make good and accurate decisions but we shouldn't use his special status as a means to be lazy and not help him by tossing out our own ideas. It's going to take a group effort to come back.

A lot of us (including myself) listened to Warpe with XTR, and he was wrong. Nothing wrong with that and his ideas and theories have just as much credit to myself that they did yesterday, we all make mistakes but taking peoples word as gospel is just going to let the wolves jump on BW's with no thought's and blend in with the rest of the village. This just doesn't give us any info.

With all that said...i'm going to get some constructive thinking going on.

Bigred brought up the fact that Gator is still alive. Why SDM is still alive is a better question to ask.


Spitball with that idea for a minute and quit saying "HERP DERP, WHERE'S GATOR? I WANT TO DO WHAT HE DOES" because that doesn't help us.

recscind fulksy

lynch dan

I'll get on the wagon for this as he could be a very good wolf recruit. If dan is a villager, we lynch fulksy or JV tomorrow.

I feel like we were able to lynch wolves better in the old days

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Originally Posted by bigred

I feel like we were able to lynch wolves better in the old days

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In the old days, people actually voted to lynch. We've had a bunch of lynches go through with sometimes half of the required votes this game. If at the end of the game the wolves win and they did little (if any) voting, there will have to be some rule changes, because otherwise the wolves can just keep letting the village level themselves and win every time.

I say lynch Warpe, TLR, or JV.

My view of the wolf strategy is they don't recruit me knowing I'm always a suspect and the seer always looks me up. However, they feel since I'm always a suspect the village will take care of me for them. This doesn't happen so they start to get restless and try to put me up for a lynch.

There's absolutely no reason for them to lynch me other than that.

I also like a Warpe lynch. He's a very good player and he has offered fuck all this game. My excuse for shitting the bed is I was busy with holiday stuff and didn't feel like participating. He can't use that excuse because he has been showing up in this thread plenty but just offering vagueness.

Something about his dynamic with bigred is striking me as odd too. But bigred is further down the list for me.

After writing all this, I like a Warpe lynch the most. Who wants to split his social security with me? Anyone??

lynch Warpe

I just read through the first 8-9 pages and my top suspects are Fulksy, Donnacello, Supa and somewhat Hoopy.

I am not totally convinced with TLR, but am not ready to put him higher than the others just yet.

For now I think I like a lynch supahaole the best

Once a wagon gets started on me it ususally takes off like a brushfire. I've been known to get lynched in my sleep before so before I go to bed I'll tell you all, like I do everytime, I'm a villager, like I am everytime. Hope I see you in the morning.

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Originally Posted by supahaole

Wtf? You bold me and then you say this? I'm far from a likely suspect. Nobody really wants to hear me explain that I've been busy with work, holidays blah, blah, blah so I'll spare them. I haven't read any farther than this so I don't know if this got a bw going but I'm tired and I want to take a shower so I'll read the rest later. But seriously, I think you're a better suspect than me and I'm pretty sure you're not even a wolf.

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Yeah, my bolding you in no way makes it likely you'll be snap lynched. We still have a decent majoirty despite the shit we're in, thinking my first bold in any way threatens the village making a snap wrong choice is retarded at this point. I have no idea if you're a villager or a wolf. If it's the former, then please let's not fight since we really need to hit a wolf today, like more than ever.

Lol TRL, bolding first is fun, whatever, you're still a hella likely wolf in my book and not doing anything to convince me otherwise.

I'm hella suspicious of JV and TLR at this point. I'd be rediculously shocked if they were both villagers.

Yes SDM, finding out Gator's opinion doesn't in any way gain us decisive game changing information but it does gauruntee us the impartial assessment of an experiecned villager which is clearly highly fucking important right now given how evidently lost we are as a village.

Think we should be looking at TLR and JV at this point and the less momentum the shit I suggest gains, the more I hate the way this game is going.

This Dan lycnh feels genuinely wrong right now. Yes he could be a wolf given his post being potentially a level, but it's way less likely than a lot of our other targets. He's shown himself to be a suspicious fucker as a villager regardless of the circumstances in most game he;s played and now we have a fairly good reason to acquit him, we're somehow still wanting to lynch him. I'm not entirely sure who to trust here at all, but I'm going to stick faith in Philly being a villager at this point and suggest we lynch one of the two I proposed.

Rescind Supa, Lynch TLR.

Sticking with this just now but am likely happy to lynch JV also. Wilbur is probably my next traget after that.

FFS village, we not to stop failing so hard here.

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Originally Posted by GatorJH

I just read through the first 8-9 pages and my top suspects are Fulksy, Donnacello, Supa and somewhat Hoopy.

I am not totally convinced with TLR, but am not ready to put him higher than the others just yet.

For now I think I like a lynch supahaole the best

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Hoopy's dead bra. FFS angel, you're the only one I fully trust and depend on right now!

I still think Supa's a decent lynch, but rate TLR and JV lynches higher.

Again, if one of JV or TLR isn't a wolf I'd be shocked. If both are I wouldn't be at all surprised

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Originally Posted by Galapogos

I say lynch Warpe, TLR, or JV.
... Something about his dynamic with bigred is striking me as odd too. But bigred is further down the list for me.

After writing all this, I like a Warpe lynch the most. Who wants to split his social security with me? Anyone??

lynch Warpe

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I'm a villager, galap. And I will fully support a bigred lynch.

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Originally Posted by Carroters

Hoopy's dead bra. FFS angel, you're the only one I fully trust and depend on right now!

I still think Supa's a decent lynch, but rate TLR and JV lynches higher.

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lols

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Originally Posted by Warpe

I'm a villager, galap. And I will fully support a bigred lynch.

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Then be amazing for us! Every game I'm a wolf your soul reads are scary and you're always a priority kill for the wolf team. You're still alive this game and offer no soul reads. What gives?

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Originally Posted by TLR

From JKDS posts I dont really see any valuable hints, I assume he has looked up Warpe and since he left no indication I am going to work under the assumpion Warpe is a likely villager.

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Originally Posted by supahaole

Yeah, I think JKDS basically said he looked up warpe which leaves us with warpe, gator and sdm on the varified villager list. I wanna wait to hear from gator but I'll prolly be following warpes lead.

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Originally Posted by Carroters

Here's my list of who I think are villagers.

Warpe
SDM
Gator
JV
Roid
Fulsky
Dan

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Originally Posted by philly and the phanatics

This is the most revealing thing i could find and it was right after he had his 3rd lookup. Also it should be noted that last game he looked up WBF/Gala as 2 of his first 3....i think the 1 person we can def take away as a confirmed villager is Warpe (and ldo gator/sdm)

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That's all I can be assed to find, but enough to make me question why, if a villager, would warpe still be alive today?

And nobody acknowledges this point. Yet often "warpes still alive, he must be a wolf" is a standard reason to lynch him.

This in particular really made me doubt JV:

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Originally Posted by jackvance

He had likely already looked up Gator and knew who to the angel was. Also his earlier comments about "Warpe being a prime look-up for the seer"


So he had done 3 lookups, most likely gator and warpe were two of them. Then this post seems to clear either me or yaawn/icanhas3bet as regular villager. And the other one was his strong intuition. (that's what JKDS did when we was the seer last game). I am a villager so it could very well be he looked me up, if I was indeed a juicy recruitment, which many have been saying. I think this sorta puts me in te clear, not sure what others think though.


I'm with TLR on this one.. the wolf ratio is so high right now, we need to start scoring.

lynch Gala

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This is the wolfiest post JV has ever made. It basically says "I'm in the clear and lets lynch someone we get no value from whatsoever" at an important time for the village when we kinda really need to start hitting wolves.

No value besides
- he could be a wolf
- getting bolds on his name out there might actually prompt him to come post (if he's a wolf they usually come, a villager might or might not, so this gives info)

Now see, all of Dan's posts are these short snippets throwing out suspicion, if he's a villager his style sure changed.

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Originally Posted by Carroters

Again, if one of JV or TLR isn't a wolf I'd be shocked. If both are I wouldn't be at all surprised

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You're at the very least in for a shock then. TLR might be a wolf again this game, I'm rather undecided about him, he can play it quite well, seeming villager-like.

Yup, changed my style since I was a wolf a few games ago with gator, I played much better this way as a wolf and am trying to merge my play from both sides to be less obvious whether wolf, villager or special.

Hm reading back through the last few pages I might've picked up a tell. It's not as strong as the one last game, but it would mean WBF and TLR are wolves. I guess they were already showing up on some suspicion lists (mostly TLR) so I can say I'm definately also on board with them now.

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Originally Posted by GatorJH

I just read through the first 8-9 pages and my top suspects are Fulksy, Donnacello, Supa and somewhat Hoopy.

I am not totally convinced with TLR, but am not ready to put him higher than the others just yet.

For now I think I like a lynch supahaole the best

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Hoopy was killed a few days ago, bro.

I am a fan of Galapagos being a disinterested villager. However, the observation that Warpe really hasn't been informative this game has struck a chord with me. Though the numbers are not in favor of this being true, let's assume Warpe was scanned by JKDS on night 1. Since recruitment took place on night 2, there is a chance Warpe could be a wolf. Furthermore, there is the chance that Warpe was Santa Claws all along. Unfortunately, if Warpe is indeed a wolf, I'm not sure his death would provide the village with a lot of information.

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Originally Posted by StillDeadMoney

I am a fan of Galapagos being a disinterested villager. However, the observation that Warpe really hasn't been informative this game has struck a chord with me. Though the numbers are not in favor of this being true, let's assume Warpe was scanned by JKDS on night 1. Since recruitment took place on night 2, there is a chance Warpe could be a wolf. Furthermore, there is the chance that Warpe was Santa Claws all along. Unfortunately, if Warpe is indeed a wolf, I'm not sure his death would provide the village with a lot of information.

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Actually catching a wolf >>>>>>> information. Atleast at this stage where we've lost nothing but villagers and have 6 wolves on our hands. And every wolf provides information.

I'm just a villager - which prob explains my lack of participation.

I'll bold whateva Gator does.

I think Wapre is most likely a wolf, either through recruiting or maybe Santa Claws himself.

JV I think is as well.

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Originally Posted by StillDeadMoney

Hoopy was killed a few days ago, bro.

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yea, I know. It was almost midnight and I was pretty damn tired. That was supposed to be Wilbur.

As for TLR and JV I keep getting mixed signals on both of them. I go through a few posts and think "damn that was wolfish" then I hit a few where I swear they are villagers. Naturally both of them are good enough players where that makes them wolves more often than not, but I still think there is at least 1, if not 2 wolves in my previous list.

I will take another in depth look at the thread this afternoon and will post some more thoughts later.


lolzzz, with today being the most critical day (assuming 2 villagers get modkilled tonight) can you please give us AT LEAST a 24 hour notice on the day ending? Thanks.

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Originally Posted by Galapogos

I say lynch Warpe, TLR, or JV.

My view of the wolf strategy is they don't recruit me knowing I'm always a suspect and the seer always looks me up. However, they feel since I'm always a suspect the village will take care of me for them. This doesn't happen so they start to get restless and try to put me up for a lynch.

There's absolutely no reason for them to lynch me other than that.

I also like a Warpe lynch. He's a very good player and he has offered fuck all this game. My excuse for shitting the bed is I was busy with holiday stuff and didn't feel like participating. He can't use that excuse because he has been showing up in this thread plenty but just offering vagueness.

Something about his dynamic with bigred is striking me as odd too. But bigred is further down the list for me.

After writing all this, I like a Warpe lynch the most. Who wants to split his social security with me? Anyone??

lynch Warpe

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Gala can be either a disinterested villager or a wolf

Summary of Gala's contrinution during this game
1. Posting almost nothing for the first few days
2. When there is a threat of being modkilled he starts posting
3. His first meaningful post puts as his top 3 candidates names of most of the veteran, going after arguebly the best player remaining

My read of it that Gala is a wolf who attempted to play UTR, and when he realized that he has to get involved to some extent and will probably not live too long anyhow try to get one of the vets out before he is lynched.

lynch Gala

What bothers me about your analysis above is that the under the radar approach from a wolf usually involves minimal posting with little content, not just not playing at all for days. Arguably he could have been modkilled a few days ago, and I don't see your typical wolf risking that when an empty post or two removes the risk.

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Originally Posted by GatorJH

yea, I know. It was almost midnight and I was pretty damn tired. That was supposed to be Wilbur.

As for TLR and JV I keep getting mixed signals on both of them. I go through a few posts and think "damn that was wolfish" then I hit a few where I swear they are villagers. Naturally both of them are good enough players where that makes them wolves more often than not, but I still think there is at least 1, if not 2 wolves in my previous list.

I will take another in depth look at the thread this afternoon and will post some more thoughts later.


lolzzz, with today being the most critical day (assuming 2 villagers get modkilled tonight) can you please give us AT LEAST a 24 hour notice on the day ending? Thanks.

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DON'T I ALWAYS????

THIS DAY IS GONNA GO UNTIL WE GET THE REQUIRED VOTES

Okay, I was on the fence about TLR but now I'm putting him in the Villager camp, not because he's attacking one of my attackers but because it doesn't make sense to do so if he's a wolf. If he was a wolf he'd know for sure that I'm a villager and would just let a lynchtrain starting on me gather steam, but instead he's sticking his neck out.

The vet wolves know that suspicion always gets cast on me when I survive more than a few days...the old "WTF why is Warpe still alive?" argument that's always used by the wolves...so they are better off trying to get me lynched rather than using a nom on me at night.

Lynch Galapogos.

And look really closely at WillburForce and StillDeadMoney, as well as bigred who is being too cute, among others.

I'll try to post a full list of suspects later for the village to follow up on, 'cause I've got my doubts about living through the next night if I survive the day today.

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Originally Posted by Warpe

The vet wolves know that suspicion always gets cast on me when I survive more than a few days...the old "WTF why is Warpe still alive?" argument that's always used by the wolves...so they are better off trying to get me lynched rather than using a nom on me at night.

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but it seems like pretty legitimate argument, early i can see them trying to get you lynched rather then nom you at night, but were getting pretty desperate and since everyone raves about how good you are, i find it weird that now that the wolves grasp on this game is getting tighter that they wouldn't eliminate a top villager. i really can't find a reason why you haven't been killed at night. i think everyone's going under the assumption that JKDS looked you up, but i really think there's a good chance your SC or the recruit.

and you really haven't helped the village at all, which seems strange after all the props you have been givin, galap makes some good points

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Then be amazing for us!Every game I'm a wolf your soul reads are scary and you're always a priority kill for the wolf team. You're still alive this game and offer no soul reads. What gives?

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and dan makes a good point obout gala being a villager, it looks like your going after an ez target with gala when there seems like way better candidates.

Dan:

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What bothers me about your analysis above is that the under the radar approach from a wolf usually involves minimal posting with little content, not just not playing at all for days. Arguably he could have been modkilled a few days ago, and I don't see your typical wolf risking that when an empty post or two removes the risk.

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with the risk of looking like I'm targeting the village's "best asset" (also warpe voted for Gator early) Lynch Warpe. honestly i haven't seen anything that would make me believe that i'm hurting the village anymore by voting you out then anyone else,

also it seems like the wolves got together and decided to not post much and use the holidays, etc, etc for why there not posting, which could definitely be true but... it just wary of it cause it seems like none of the guys that i have on my villager list have had any excuses for not posting

warpe:

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And look really closely at WillburForce and StillDeadMoney, as well as bigred who is being too cute, among others.

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i think its pretty confirmed the SDM is the vig, as he wasn't shot after he came out so...

also lets come to a consensus on who to shoot maybe in italics SHOOT SUPA, we really need to hit a wolf and our vig going with his gut hasn't been working to great.

And finally Warpe makes an insightful post.

I'm starting to get more of a sense of what the wolf camp could consist of and what the are doing. I still have Dan as the most likely recruit (or he was simply a wolf to begin with).. sure he is "merging" his playstyle but he's way too aggressive all the time to be a vllager. Then we have WBF and TLR who I think are wolves (this is on a hunch). And yesterday I bolded gala, his lack of participation could def make him a wolf (and I was lacking suspects + not paying too muc attention), but also to get him to post.

His posts today however looked very fishy to me. Not the fact that he attacks Warpe, but the way he does so. It looked like he was trying just a tad too hard there.

Now, you will see a discrepancy between what I just said and Warpe's post, namely whether TLR is likely a villager or a wolf. There are several explanations for this. Gala could be the villager, TLR could be a villager, or the wolves could have decided that they're in such great shape that they have started to loosely attack each-other to ensure that they don't arrive at an endgame where all the real villagers have picked off the wolves (which is often one of the reasons the wolves lose).

So considering that the day won't end until we get a majority (this will already be a bit hard with 9 votes needed and 11 villagers, if the wolves don't band along on their own) I'll go back to my yesterday vote

rescind Dan

lync gala

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Originally Posted by fulksy

also lets come to a consensus on who to shoot maybe in italics SHOOT SUPA, we really need to hit a wolf and our vig going with his gut hasn't been working to great.

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I'd like it if he shot Dan. And if not Dan, then WBF.

I don't think Warpe got recruited, he seems to me like a bad recruiting target, I think it was most likely Dan. (but could ofc be anyone) And I'm pretty sure JKDS looked him Warpe, he pretty much said so. Would be pretty sick if Warpe was Santa Claws and fooled the seer, because that's the only way I can see him being a wolf.

Warpe lynch is ok given stated facts, I like how SDM is thinking (*shudders*) with his post on JV/fulsky, but he might be on to something. TLR also needs to be dead.

So I'm thinking, Lynch Warpe, if he's a villager, we shoot Dan/fulsky/Gala

If he comes out as a wolf, shoot JV/TLR

Lynch Warpe

Also, I don't know why people are so hellbent on lynching supahaole. He's obv a SupaAhole, but other than that it seems obvious he's a disinterested villager, no? Lynching him gives us ZERO information on anything. Lynching Warpe opens up some options depending on what he is.

We're being led by our noses like a cow to slaughter atm, we need something big to swing it for us, and this might be the break we need. We have to be willing to take a chance as a village to put a gap between us and the wolves before its too late. Today is a pivotal point for the game, if we don't manage to get at least ONE wolf tonight, time is getting awfully short...

Whoops, I forgot about SDM's retarded self-outing as the vig. At the time I thought it might be a lame wolf attempt to get the real Vig to come out but apparently not.

btw, DanAronG is asking why I'm still alive...draw your own conclusions based on my previous.

Ask yourself why, at such a "critical" point in the game, why any supposed villager would want to vote to lynch me today.

My aggression is not unusual, I used to be an aggressive villagers but it kept getting me killed, but this game I'm pretty much a confirmed villager so I don't need to play with restraint. My posts are more considered and deliberate though now, but they have been for the last three games as explained above.

I'm even more confident of your wolfiness now that you ate attacking me. Although I agree its feasible for me to be a wolf, its pretty dam unlikely, and you have only attacked me since I attacked you. For both lynches and shootings there are far better candidates than me based on both info gained and wolf probability.

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Originally Posted by Warpe

Ask yourself why, at such a "critical" point in the game, why any supposed villager would want to vote to lynch me today.

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I thought that had been covered, your probably a wolf and haven't been particulary useful

Because you're a possible Santa recruit and often a Night 1 lookup (I looked you up first a few games back when I was seer.) Possibly (very small possibly) explains Night 2 recruiting.

The score will be awfully close if we fail to get at least one wolf today. You honestly haven't contributed DICK to this game yet as far as I've seen, and your death will sharpen the lines a bit more. (There are people actively voting for you and people actively defending you atm in case you didn't notice.) Your death is more valuable at this point to the village than you being alive in my eyes since you really haven't done anything in terms of helping the village.

Note: I'm not necessarily coming after you because I'm 100% sold you're a wolf, I want to lynch you because your death gives us oh so much more information than anyone else's does. Don't take offense old man.

blathering on with keith-length posts isn't necessarily making a contribution and not my style anyway.

gator and jv know exactly what I'm doing.

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Originally Posted by Warpe

Whoops, I forgot about SDM's retarded self-outing as the vig.

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Obviously the wolves do not believe I am the vigilante, because I'm still alive.

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Originally Posted by StillDeadMoney

Obviously the wolves do not believe I am the vigilante, because I'm still alive.

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Wat. Why the hell wouldn't they believe you're the vig. You're very very likely the real vig, this is just absurd logic imo.

This concerns me we have Wapre Gator and JV all voting for Gala. It seems highly unlikely, like actually rediculously unlikely that lall three of these are viollagers, thin kabout it. A vert has likely been recruited, JV Warpe and TLr are targetting a guy who's participation has risked mod kill and is in pretty much the rest of the villages' eyes a didinterested villager. Lynching Gala also gets us relatively little info due to his post count.

This seems so dodgy and like we have 2 if not 3 wolves here leading the village to death at a very critical point in the game. People be very careful before voting for Gala imo. I really hate to go against three strong players, but two of them are people I've thought likely wolves for a while and Warpe could easily be Santa, this has become more likely now he's siding with these two.

Man I really don't want to be responsible for getting people to not follow these 3 vets if they're villagers onto the right shit here and there's something about Gala and this game I'm missing, but ffs we have 3 vets all voting for a guy who doesn't look very wolfy to anyone else and we have 6 fucking wolves out there. I think we need to lynch TLR or JV and if I'm wrong we can completely change tracks.

Sigh, at least we have plenty time. What do others think about this strange trio and their Gala Wagon?

*That should read Warpe TLR and JV in the 2nd paragraph*

Carroters: Suspect all you want, but I'm more sure about TLR and JV being villagers than I am about you.

There seems to be some attempts to derial a Galapogos train early here, which leads me to think he may be more important than just a wolf.

Is Santa more important than a the wolf? Am I missing something?

The = reg - dam smart phones

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Originally Posted by Carroters

Wat. Why the hell wouldn't they believe you're the vig. You're very very likely the real vig, this is just absurd logic imo.

This concerns me we have Wapre Gator and JV all voting for Gala. It seems highly unlikely, like actually rediculously unlikely that lall three of these are viollagers, thin kabout it. A vert has likely been recruited, JV Warpe and TLr are targetting a guy who's participation has risked mod kill and is in pretty much the rest of the villages' eyes a didinterested villager. Lynching Gala also gets us relatively little info due to his post count.

This seems so dodgy and like we have 2 if not 3 wolves here leading the village to death at a very critical point in the game. People be very careful before voting for Gala imo. I really hate to go against three strong players, but two of them are people I've thought likely wolves for a while and Warpe could easily be Santa, this has become more likely now he's siding with these two.

Man I really don't want to be responsible for getting people to not follow these 3 vets if they're villagers onto the right shit here and there's something about Gala and this game I'm missing, but ffs we have 3 vets all voting for a guy who doesn't look very wolfy to anyone else and we have 6 fucking wolves out there. I think we need to lynch TLR or JV and if I'm wrong we can completely change tracks.

Sigh, at least we have plenty time. What do others think about this strange trio and their Gala Wagon?

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Point me to one earlier WW where a whole flock of wolves all voted the same way. That just doesn't happen. Atleast I know I'm a villager (and the best WW player ever according to SDM! haha), maybe I got caught inbetween two wolves pushing for a kill, but this one feels good. And for the record, I'm still quite suspicious of TLR, despite voting the same way.

If I look at everything else, most people's theories involve me in the "suspicious" category. Crazy stuff like linking me to several people (although I have no idea of how or why), or theories that go "if X/Y" are wolves (or villagers) then JV *must* be a wolf.

Now, since I KNOW I am just a villager, all of these theories are just plain WRONG. I am sure as hell not gonna pay them much heed. I don't know if it's wolves making this up or villagers, but I'm guessing it's probably a bit of both.

Why does lynching Gala feel goodto you though? As has been said, I feel like his lack of participation earlier in the game was risky and not a wolfy type of inactivity. A wolf would post little but with some regulairty, a disinterested villager would do this and then get more involved when the heat was on him with the village in toruble and also now the game is more interesting.

I guess it's reasonably unlikely all 3 of you are wovles but certainly possible as a level since you have the solid defence of "like fuck we'd ever band together like that." Think two of you so so easily could be though and at least one almost certainly. Hence I kind of hate this Gala lynch at this stage.

I hope all three are wolves, that would be an awesome move, and who better to do it, very unlikely though.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Carroters

Why does lynching Gala feel goodto you though? As has been said, I feel like his lack of participation earlier in the game was risky and not a wolfy type of inactivity.

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I believe he might have been genuinly busy with the holidays and other such mundane distractions, but that doesn't disclude him from being a wolf! Do I have to remind you of a certain wolf that got modkilled? Sure that guy was a noob, but still the fact remains that even wolves can get genuinly busy with real life, and it was the holidays afterall. That doesn't make them standard desinterested villagers.

I know it looks like I'm going hard after gala now, but that's only because everyone is oh so suspicious of it. Truth is, I'm not *that* sure he's a wolf, but his last few posts didn't feel right. So I bold him again. I have no hardcore good suspects anyway. If I did, you'd see me say stuff like "I'm so sure I'd bank my car on it" (did with XTR once many games back).

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Carroters

I guess it's reasonably unlikely all 3 of you are wovles but certainly possible as a level since you have the solid defence of "like fuck we'd ever band together like that." Think two of you so so easily could be though and at least one almost certainly. Hence I kind of hate this Gala lynch at this stage.

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Now that's a decent point actually. Remember, I'm still suspicious of TLR too. I did cover this already in an earlier post though. It's generally called "wolves throwing each-other under the bus".

But heck, I might very well be on the right track with some other villagers, and trying to reason with a bunch of wolves lol. But meh why would wolves defend another wolf anyway.

Everytime I read through JV's posts, I try to get one level above his and this ends in a headache. I just feel like there's something there that I'm missing. You know that feeling when you leave the house and you keep thinking you forgot something but everything seems to be in order and you still feel somethings not right. Kinda like that, if that made any sense :/

If we're going after an inactive-ish player I would prefer it be Wilbur with Supaahole trailing by a cunt hair. I posted about Wilbur yesterday, so if you want my reasoning just flip back a few pages and please, add to it or critique it if you see holes and want to help me fill them.

lynch WilburForce

Wolves putting themselves itt. Warpe and jv trying to get a bw against me now if laughable. Don't bold warpe yet tho. If I get smoked by the wolves tonight I want to be in on the game plan for who to lynch after those two. I'll be home in a bit to read the recent posts closer and hopefully see who else is connected to them.

i really dont know how to help right now other than being adamantly against gala's lynch. I do not know how i feel about warpe, it is kind of tilting how he is not offering much in terms of information or guidance. The only person he wants to lynch is the one person im like sure is a villager (outside SDM/Gator) based on the course of events. That being said im not gung ho on lynching warpe either, i would really like more information on where gator stands on him.

I am ready to bold Supa, he was gators first choice and his wagon hasnt taken off at all which may be telling (xtr/kn/kfaess wagons lit up like wild fires), i am just going to wait for gator's "one more in depth read through" to hear his thoughts before bolding.

I get the feeling there's some really weird shit going on in this game. That whole thing about warpe saying 'gator and jv know what I'm doing' is bugging me. I feel like it's maybe warpe leveling gator, so if gator has any thoughts on that I'd like to hear it.

Otherwise I'm pretty fucking lost. I think almost everyone is a wolf at this point.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by DropTheBanana

Everytime I read through JV's posts, I try to get one level above his and this ends in a headache. I just feel like there's something there that I'm missing. You know that feeling when you leave the house and you keep thinking you forgot something but everything seems to be in order and you still feel somethings not right. Kinda like that, if that made any sense :/

If we're going after an inactive-ish player I would prefer it be Wilbur with Supaahole trailing by a cunt hair. I posted about Wilbur yesterday, so if you want my reasoning just flip back a few pages and please, add to it or critique it if you see holes and want to help me fill them.

lynch WilburForce

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I'm all for lynching inactives (yeah yeah irony) but this seems like an odd time to be doing so when when we have a couple sides so clearly divided. Now's the to lynch someone on one of those sides, there's obviously wolves in the discussion. I find it odd that you wouldn't think that.

Also, you didn't give any reasons for Wilbur a few pages back. That post just has the same old "he's inactive" reasoning as your post above.

Another reason I think jv is a wolf is if you look back at Epic WW last game, I was on the chopping block and he actually reasoned why I couldn't be a wolf. This game he's just using the same old clumsy "I gots a wolfy feeling". He's better than that and it makes no sense why I'd be his #1 target aside from the fact that he's a wolf.

My list:
Wolves:
Warpe
jackvance
TLR
and feeling bigred.
Possibly DTB too but want to research his posts more first.

Villagers:
StillDeadMoney
GatorJH
philly and the fanatics
Galapogos
Carroters
DanAronG

Will explain that reasoning later, on my way out now

Taking out bigred is basically a straight numbers roll because of the way he plays, 6 wolves to 11 villagers, so that's 35%. Because of this, I think we should wait until the last possible minute to off him. If you factor in that he would be a great recruit because of the way he plays, that number could possibly be higher.

As much as I would like to comment on Galapagos' list, I can't. Too many players have been quiet with few posts and little voting, and that's an ideal strategy for both a wolf (good) and villager (bad). I think there is a very good chance that this entire game has just been the village leveling themselves while the wolves lay back and rack up the body count.

Out of all the inactives, I think Wilburforce is the most obvious candidate for a lynch, because of the manner of his posts in this game seem to be quite different from previous games (the ones I have been in, at least). Unfortunately I don't think a Wilbur lynch will say much whether or not he is a wolf.

Here is the XTR bandwagon, in the order the votes occured:

XTR bandwagon:
Warpe
wuf - confirmed villager
bigred
DropTheBanana
TLR
Donachello
SDM
fulksy
Gator - near-certainty an angel
supahaole

So this is semi-interesting I think, regarding Warpe/JV/WBF:

I went back and looked at Day 1, and when SDM posted his list of people who had votes against them, he left out Warpe, who at the time had 2. Casual mistake, but I think everyone looked over the fact that Warpe DID have 2 votes against him on Day 1, and then they recruited on Night 2.

The only weird thing is that the people who did the voting are none other than...:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by WillburForce

no info here to go on.

Only thing i'll pick up on is that Warpe posted 1st after daybreak.

lynch Warpe.

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and...

Quote:

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Originally Posted by jackvance

Not only that, he hopped on the Keith bw in a way that's a bit uncharacteristic of him (or rather, I wouldn't expect him to do that, but that's ofc subjective). I thought he could be a wolf when I saw that post. And then he rescinded. Still he looks more wolfy to me than Dan/Keith or even Kingnat/Supa.

rescind

lynch warpe

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Now you might be thinking, why is this so interesting? Well it was on DAY 1, where random lynches get fired up and derailed all day til someone bolds a name that everyone can pile on. I think it's possible that it was the wolves (WBF and JV) having some fun with a fellow wolf. Warpe responds with 4 successive short posts:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Warpe

lol

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by Warpe

WillburForce fits the Eurodonk profile perfectly

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by Warpe

and jv is usually a lot more careful...

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by Warpe

I'm holding my vote until some more suspicion is spread around

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To which WBF replies 'thats 3 horrible defense posts old man' and then the matter is basically dropped after that. My bandwagon started shortly after and its like everyone has completely forgotten that Warpe had votes on him at all that day. Even JV and WBF don't mention him again for the rest of the next page and JV switches his vote a few more votes with no comment on his Warpe bw going no where.

I'm just saying go back and read it yourselves, thats all. End of page 3, onward.

and...?

Willbur is still on my wolf list and has given me no reason to take him off it.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by supahaole

I get the feeling there's some really weird shit going on in this game. That whole thing about warpe saying 'gator and jv know what I'm doing' is bugging me. I feel like it's maybe warpe leveling gator, so if gator has any thoughts on that I'd like to hear it.

Otherwise I'm pretty fucking lost. I think almost everyone is a wolf at this point.

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I do know what Warpe is doing and although I am pretty comfortable that he is a villager. I looked through some stuff tonight and don't see how you can't be a wolf so I am sticking with that. If Warpe turns out to be a wolf then, imo he has taken the role to an entirely new level.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by GatorJH

I do know what Warpe is doing and although I am pretty comfortable that he is a villager...

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it isn't anywhere near 100%

Who cares if he's on your wolf list? If you're a wolf, its not exactly uncommon for wolves to put other wolves on their list.

Gator, reasoning behind Supa being a wolf for defo, or cliffs. I'll be happy to lynch him if I like your reasons. Still wary that TLR lynches are being backed by a few that I'm fairly sure are villagers and noone else though.

i really think we should keep in mind that with the vig we really have two votes, i assume if we miss both and lose two villagers were toast?

I think this is the hardest game I've ever played.

I just went back to lolz post which started the day and lists us all to make a villagers/wolves list, and I couldn't put anyone on the villager side except me, Gator & sdm.

So instead I tried to make a list with probably wolves, villagers & unknowns, and I still couldn't do much.

So instead I tried ranking pkayers in wolf liklihood, and here's what I got:

Villagers:
me, Gator, sdm

Wolf probability list:
Warpe
JV
TLR
WF
carrot
Philly
BR
treebet
Roid
followed by all the rest as equally suspicious

As it stands I'd be ok with lynching & shooting any two of the named players on that list, the higher up the list the better.

I think it would be 9-6 at that point, so not toast, but definitely not in good shape.

@ DTB

I've been inactive simply because I'm a villager and its been Xmas - poor excuse but true.


@ villagers

We obv need to kill a wolf tonight. The only confirmed villagers are Gator and SDM. You two decide amongst yourselves and I think the rest of us should go with it. Then SDM shoot the shit out of somebody tonight.

As soon as SDM and Gator vote the same I'll bold as well.

I think Roid might have fooled me earlier, and he's a wolf afterall.


But that aside, I'm seeing a trend here. For some reason many people are tying me to someone else as a "duo of wolves". This makes little sense in itself, I mean do such level 0 plays still exist where you can find pairs of wolves? Do people actually believe this? (hey point me to a game where this worked plz) Yet this reasoning seems to be prevalent. And I'm not only being "tied" with TLR, but also WBF? I think I have an idea why the wolves are doing this though (although it's not just wolves doing this, SDM actually started this weird thinking, they might have just decided to pile on here). The wolves are pretty close to victory, but they have to expect some of their own will die before the end.

So what can happen? Kill me first, oh wow I'm a villager, all theories collapse, but lynch WBF or TLR, they turn up a wolf and now this is "proof" that I am too, and the next lynch can be set up?

This makes me more and more convinced TLR and WBF are wolves. And also, Dan and Roid. This leaves 2 more.


And gala, whether you're a wolf or a villager, just because you get bolded doesn't mean you need to throw a fit thinking you're dead. If you would read my posts beyond the fact that they have your name in bold, you would see I'm trying to flesh out a whole bunch of wolves, as I'm doing with this post again. And I have the advantage here that when I do die, I'll show up as a shiny normal villager and people can go back and read what I said and the wolves I have pointed at.

rescind gala

lynch WBF

I'm feeling a gala lynch. He seems to be playing very similar to when he was a wolf while I modded.

However, we must first consult psychic cat!

OHHHHHHH great psychic cat. Empower us with your wisdomz for it is caturday and that is good.

http://cdn.bleacherreport.net/images...jpg?1271708941

The wise feline has spoken!

http://img689.imageshack.us/img689/5629/64037701.jpg

ldo, lynch roid rage