unlike you, ive played with ong for years. he almost never gets nommed, rarely gets lynched, and has been disinterested villager but never disinterested wolf.
he's a fantastic seer target because he has a way of not dying when other players would.
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wuf remember that point you made about not being results oriented ? Every argument you make is based off of some results that support your current whim
It's useless for me to argue with your every point. You will argue more no matter what. And it won't help the village either way.
If wuf were in charge, what's the plan?
If one were in charge, what's the plan?
I think we should have Boog-Luco wagons?
Wuf: please stahpppp making words. You're sabotaging your team.
So hoopy claimed vig. Either real vig shoots him tonight or he's legit.
Ong claimed angel. If hoopy is vig he shoots ong and ong survives by either protection ting himself or hoopy. If hoopy is a wolf, hoopy dies from the real vig buy we are nine the wiser about ong. (but fake claiming vig is always bad as you get deaded so that's unlikely).
So on all probability those two players role questions are resolved. So can't really trust any if them yet but not am issue.
Wuf claims seer. If he's legit he's dead and that confirms ong is a wolf but that's no use to us anyway as his role is resolved anyway.
Baud seems super confident ong is legit and I don't really see why. I mean it's very possible but I'm not that confident.
What was the order of claims? Hoopy, wuf, then ong?
I am not super confident Ong is legit. I don't see any downside to Hoopy shooting him though. If there is, LMK.
i mean ideally the real angel would just CC here and we can lynch Ong but that prob won't happen.
We can probably lynch Wuf tomorrow no matter what.
Ongs plan isn't self resolving, it's a non starter. The angels focus today should be protecting the seer, not clearing themselves through fps.
His plan makes no sense, regardless of alignment
lynch wufwugy
Hoopy shoot Ong.
Wolves are wolves, guys.
Ps rong before boog before Luco before before before before gabe.
lilrascal belongs somewhere on the spectrum. But where?
There are better tactics available.
But I want to go this route for two reasons.
1) Wuf and Ong are wolves.
2) Being angel-cleared was a bit much.
rescind I'm reckless but patient.
So if I'm getting this correctly I shoot ong tonight and he blocks it to confirm that he's legit.
If he survives then seerwuggy is actually wolfwuggy because he's said ong is a wolf.
If he dies as a wolf then wuf is not confirmed either way.
If wuf is legit, ong is a wolf and the real angel has to protect wuf.
If wuf is a wolf, ong is legit, and wolves will prob take a shot at either rilla (known villager) or random chance at landing seer.
Or wuf is a wolf, ong is a wolf, ong gets shot but makes us lynch someone else today. Real angel should prob protect wuf really just in case.
I need a pen and paper to make a decision tree.
Hoopy has to be a villager. That's the only bit I'm sold on.
Yeah, I think we're like +4 misses right now, with 3 people who can roll clear, me and you pretty much cleared, a couple of solid village choices, and a rather moderate murky group of whom rong distinguishes himself as a top target.
We could lynch rong, let ong proc himself, you shoot ong, and let the wolves snack on wuggy and walk into tomorrow with still 2-3 cleared villagers and one fewer murk ath the risk of the seer.
But I want to lynch the two guys who have made and continue to make wolfy posts.
On first pass it makes sense to leave ong/wuf alone today as either 1 or both their identities will be confirmed tonight.
Yeah, both will if we do it right. But I wanna do it a bit wrong.
hoopy shoot ong. if someone else is vig, shoot hoopy
if ong is the angel, ong protect himself. if someone else is angel, protect wuf
wuf, lookup boog or rong. whichever we dont lynch.
how can we do better than that? i think boog is wolfier than rong but ill vote either
I'm not sure that I believe any of the claims at this point. All of them were a bit opportunistic.
Hoopy's may be the most believable, but I don't think outing himself at that point was the best play which makes me suspicious.
Wuf's claim just doesn't seem sincere because again it's a bad play and he wasn't voting his seer peek when he claimed. I think wolf seer would try to make a case on a wolf peek, rather than just out himself.
Ong's claim is possible, but it's still not a great play there to out himself. It would have been better to just say that he was a villager and wuf is a wolf for making an obvious (from his POV) incorrect peek. But, he can protect himself tonight, so it makes it possible.
I find myself agreeing with rilla here and we should lynch the wolfiest players. I think there's too much FPS going on here.
i have bad feeling ong is vanillager just trying to take a bullet to keep the angel alive. ong on a gong
I'm pretty much on board with Rilla's idea and I think everyone else should be too.
I mean, it is of course pure AIDS, from a theoretical standpoint, to lynch someone who could be the seer.
On the other hand, best case scenario is Wuf is the seer who played it so poorly as to minimize his game equity by:
A. peeking someone who was almost always gonna be a major wagon on D2, if he survived the night (he asked to be vigged FFS)
B. Outing himself at a time when we were well on the way to lynching Ong anyway (barring lolclaims)
C. Outing himself when we were 70+ hours from deadline and he was in no imminent danger
It literally could not have been played worse.
For various other reasons, particularly his interactions since, it just makes it incredibly unlikely he's the seer. As Rascal points out, Wuf didn't even have a vote on his "wolf peek" until he saw that his vote on me was going nowhere. That should have been obvious, but Wuf has been INCREDIBLY out of flow and detached from the thread.
Another reason: Even given how dead the weekends are, Wuf's "claim" barely made a ripple in the thread. "Guys, I'm the seer and I have a wolf peek" generally creates some amount of buzz. It didn't.
For one thing, when wolves see one of their bros peeked by a seer, they generally hop on to lynch him as soon as they can in a scorched earth policy. Like I mentioned before, wolves don't mess around when a possible seer makes a correct wolf peek.
That didn't happen.
THAT SAID
it doesn't seem like we lose a whole lot by lynching outside the claims and letting this play out.
I'm still down to do whatever Rilla wants.
This also assumes that all the villa PRs have outed themselves and go with this exact situation.
I don't believe that on D2 that would happen here. If it was D3, then I could see all the villa PRs claiming because we'd be in a totally different situation. I just don't buy it.
If the angel is someone other than Ong he should probably just claim here and we can lynch Ong.
I gave Wuf multiple opportunities to retract his peek on Ong in case he was a vanilager FPSing and he declined.
If Ong is actually the angel we lynch Wuf D3 no questions asked (here's betting this will happen).
Like Wuf and Ong could be W-W but what we do know is at least one is lying and is going to flip W.
Rascal, since I trust you and this is your forte, we will need to go over the implications of the N2 actions together. This will probably be the key to the whole game.
Let me relook at this. As previously noted, both Wuf and Ong can't be correct. For this case, I'll assume Hoopy is the vig.
1) If Ong is the angel, then Wuf is a wolf and angel Ong protects himself. Then vig Hoopy gets NK'd by the wolves tonight and then Ong angel on N3 since he wouldn't be able to be angeled on consecutive nights. But both Wuf and Ong are still alive tomorrow unresolved.
2) If Ong is a vanillager, then Wuf is a wolf and got the angel to waste a protection on wolf Wuf. Then vig Hoopy gets NK'd by the wolves tonight. But both Wuf and Ong are still alive tomorrow unresolved.
3) If Wuf is seer, then Ong is not angel and the angel protects Wuf. Then vig Hoopy gets NK'd by the wolves tonight and then Wuf seer on N3 since he wouldn't be able to be angeled on consecutive nights. But both Wuf and Ong are still alive tomorrow unresolved.
4) If Wuf is a wolf, and Ong is the Angel, it plays out like in (1). But both Wuf and Ong are still alive tomorrow unresolved.
5) If Wuf is a wolf, and Ong is a vanillager, then it plays out like (2). But both Wuf and Ong are still alive tomorrow unresolved.
If Wuf is the seer and played it out this way, then he's leading the village to lose all of the villa PRs. I can't see Wuf seer making this bad of a play (unless I'm missing something).
I just laid my thoughts out in a crosspost on using Gabe's plan and I don't see a plus side to it.
If Wuf is seer and played this way, then I think we lose here because of his play unless we can lynch the wolves the next 3 nights.
I think it more likely to be Wolf Wuf or vanilla Wuf making this play rather than seer Wuf.
oops missed your post. let me check that out
my strategy assumes ong can only be a wolf or the angel. in all of the scenarios you list where he is the wolf or angel, ong is resolved. he either is saved, or he dies. or hoopy was lying about being the vig (which is fine for the village)
if ong protected himself, then wuf is a wolf (wuf is resolved!)
if ong is shot, wuf could be a wolf or the seer. we will ask for what he saw tomorrow
vig will shoot hoopy though so even in same universe we're fine
there is no "believing." the angel should just save wuf to protect the seer in all the possible universes where wuf is the seer. you are right in some universes, wuf will not be resolved at dawn. however what he sees and who they kill will tell us much. also we can have other people out if the count is right (i havent analyzed this part yet)
Rascal, Hoopy and Ong being NK the next 2 nights is not really that terrible. That means the seer lives to D4 with 2-3 lookups hopefully alive.
If Ong is the angel, then he protects himself tonight and is Nk'd N3. And Wuf is alive tomorrow and I'd expect him to come in claiming an FPS play as a vanillager. So, if Ong is the angel then Wuf is a wolf or a vanillager making a -EV play for the village.
Ong is only shot if Hoopy is the vig and Ong is not the angel. In this case, Wuf is still unresolved and could be wolf or seer as you say and we're still here tomorrow, but with Hoopy being the outed vig.
If Ong saves himself and Hoopy is the vig, then both are fully outed and Wuf is still unresolved.
If Hoopy isn't the vig, then both Ong and Wuf are still alive tomorrow, still unresolved.
-------------
What I keep coming back to is that I doubt that all of the villa PRs would claim like this on D2. And if that is the case, then we're still here tomorrow.
I just keep going in circles as to the best play here.
I agree with rilla, let's just lynch the wolfiest players and let the villa PR's do their thing. Laying this out for exactly how the villa PR's should play this just helps the wolves place there NK.
"If Ong saves himself and Hoopy is the vig, then both are fully outed and Wuf is still unresolved."
if this happens, wuf is a wolf. anything else should be impossible...
rascal, I'm going to toss a coin to decide if I protect myself or hoopy tonight. Either way I'm safe, and it ensures the wolves don't know who I protected, and thus can't know if I'm a clear kill tomorrow or not.
There are approximately 24 hours remaining in Day #2
Lynch Vote Count (as of Post #950)
OngBonga - 2
wufwugy - 2
---
a500lbgorilla - (OngBonga),, (wufwugy)
baudib - (BooG690),, (wufwugy)
BooG690 - OngBonga
gabe -
Hoopy -
lilrascal - wufwugy
Luco
OngBonga - (BooG690),, wufwugy
rong -
wufwugy - (baudib),, OngBonga
BTW, do people normally claim villa PR's here on FTR. They didn't in the first game I played here.
On POG, where I also, people don't claim unless there in trouble and that's the style that I'm used to.
Obviously, I don't know the meta here that well. But, I don't see an advantage to all this claiming. I think there must be at least 1 wolf in the claims or a vanillager providing cover. Also, I don't think we're as ahead as Gabe mentioned in one of his posts. Yes, the NK was blocked by the angel, but the vig took out a villa.
Gabe brings up some good points, but I don't think they're all valid depending on which claims are real. Claimfests this early in the game don't usually work to the villas advantage from my experience.
A quick survey shows Boog's on deck to react.
I also think we're ahead here. If dhuber had only said the angel blocked the kill, we'd still be ahead. With me being mod-cleared, we're waaaaay ahead.
From my eyes:
Hoopy isn't lying. So much clicks together with his claim.
Wuf is lying. Wuf might want to get lynched as the seer just to have it in the record books, just to churn the meta, but I don't think so.
Ong is lying. I can buy a lot from his story - that he'd proc me, that he'd try to trip up wuf with his crumb nonsense, that he'd be so unmotivated because he can just always drop the "I'm the angel"-card and watch all the village-suspicion wash away. But that doesn't change the fact that Ong's iron-nose still isn't sniffing around. And Ong certainly hasn't shared one sentence that couldn't be written by a wolf.
rilla you've been wolf with me before. Am I an unmotivated wolf?
Your weren't then. But it was exhausting for you.
I mean I'm not going to bang my head against the wall defending myself here, I'll be confirmed tomorrow.
But I'm far out of both my wolf and villager range here. I've never felt this unmotivated in a game of ww. I could give you plenty of reasons why, but you don't care and tomorrow it doesn't matter.
I do care, Ong. You've been skimming the thread. Just shoot from the hip. What do you see?
I see baudib trying to control things, I really don't like his dominant style and it would be an excellent way to play as wolf, but I'm reluctant to lock horns with him because doing so early on was part of the reason I'm demotivated.
gabe is another one who seems mostly town read and I'm nervous about that.
But I felt hoopy was a wolf and he's vig. I'm reluctant to put pressure on people in case they are seer.
I think tomorrow the seer is likely to claim. That tidies things up somewhat.
Thoughts on rong, Luco, Boog, lilrascal?
As for rong, I don't necessarily believe his vanilla claim, because he's telling wuf that he's vanilla just after wuf claims seer. If rong is seer, he's going to try to react like he believes wuf.
I believe boog is either wolf or vanilla, so I like to lynch him if we're not going to lynch the fake seer.
You're still as wolf as ever, ong.
I'd enjoy that.
lol, talking about resolving wuf like he might actually flip seer here
his stunned silence is very reassuring
ong you should definitely protect yourself tonight if you are the angel. you dont need to save hoopy. you need to save the seer the next night.
it is wolfy of you to suggest otherwise. anything else you do is leaving yourself outs to be unresolved which we dont like
anyone else have a better plan than this? we should agree on it before night comes. if we coordinate then the game will be so easy
the only deviation that ive seen suggested is ong saying he wanted to randomize his protection in order to increase the vig's survival. i'm against that idea for now
gabe it doesn't matter if I protect hoopy or myself, the result is the same. I don't die. I'll toss a coin tyvm, I don't want the wolves knowing who I protected. I realise tomorrow I will likely be protecting the seer while they pick me off, but if they don't know who I protected tonight, then we're dancing tomorrow night. If they know I self protected tonight, then I'm easy pickings tomorrow.
gabe showing his hand here imo.
Wolves are wolves, gabe.
Wuf is AWOL when he should be playing an integral part of this game.
Ong made two posts where he vaguely read half the players like any wolf would knowing he can't possibly survive the night. The only thing keeping him standing is the crutch of "oh you just wait and see."
rilla, I can't be bothered to argue with you. We'll both be smiling at the end of the game, because we'll both be winners.
We were born winners, ong. We're white men.
I haven't been absent, I've just been amazed at you guys.
I have no interest in lynching anybody other than Ong. If we recall, I'm the seer. What more is there to discuss? We already settled that the vig shouldn't shoot. I'm looking up Rong. If I'm nommed we basically know that Rong is vanilla anyways since he was the first opt to be seered. But even then I won't be nommed because the angel is still alive. Then we enter d3 with a whopping 4-5 confirmed villagers, 2-3 unconfirmed villagers, and 2 wolves. This game plays itself.
Maybe this was a bad time to quit coffee. I feel a whole lot better in the mornings now and don't have crashes, but I notice it does make me a bit less talkative.
What amazed you most?
The wolf who claims to be a seer, you mean?
Or, let me bait you another way, why peek ong?
really it doesn't matter to me. i have zero time on the weekdays for this game and i just wanted to sit back and have fun for the first time ever. but i got seer, so i spent way too much time rereading the thread than i should have. then i found a wolf and nobody wants to believe me so i kinda just don't care
just a couple weeks ago i was telling aubrey i may quit the game because im just not that interested in it anymore
lynch wufwugy
Hoopy, shoot ong.
Let's do this. If it fails, sorry, that's my bad. But the village can recover.
PS this game shows me the importance of specials. Mainly that we had way too many. 0 info makes everything a brain bend. This many infos makes it seem like an algebra problem in the end.
Does raise an interesting new point. Why aren't you shitting all over ong for claiming to be a villager over and over again?
Just don't care to be right while someone else is wrong? That's just inhuman... as far as humans on the internet are concerned.