A conundrum

Here's my puzzle. Let's say you call a modest raise with T9 suited in middle position. This is a short-handed game, 5 or 6 players, and three see the flop including you; you are second to act of the three.

The flop is AA7. Not interesting to you and you're looking for an excuse to fold. But it checks around, so you check.

Turn is a jack, and it checks around again.

River is an 8, giving you a runner-runner straight. The board is rainbow... there's nothing to fear except the remote possibility that someone slowplayed Ax and filled up. Very probably, no one has anything except maybe a weak two pair.

The question is, bet here or not? It seems strongly unlikely that anyone will call based on the way the hand went. You may possibly get a call from someone with a jack or an 8, but I don't know. However if you check, you at least have some chance to get a steal bet from the last to act, and then you can make a little money on the hand.

Typically in situations like these I've bet half the pot and gotten only an occasional call from a worse hand. I am wondering which makes more money in the long run.

marginal situation, you might have the best hand, toss out a pot sized bet, if your reraised, your more then likely up against someone who slow played three Aces...

depending on the size of the reraise you should probably call.

bet out but be ready to fold if reraised hard.

To clarify, I'm not that concerned about being raised. If I am raised I will very likely fold. What I'm curious about is if I make more money by betting out, or lying back and hoping from a bet from the last player to act.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by dalecooper

To clarify, I'm not that concerned about being raised. If I am raised I will very likely fold. What I'm curious about is if I make more money by betting out, or lying back and hoping from a bet from the last player to act.

---

You would bet. If a player makes two pair in that spot, they'll be in "check-down or maybe call some"-mode. So you've gotta put a little out there to get called. Don't expect it to be a huge pot, becuase then you've got the distinct chance you're beat.

-'rilla

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by dalecooper

If I am raised I will very likely fold.

---

Say what? Maybe I don't understand correctly, but the only hand you fear is a badly misplayed boat, don't you want a re-raise? The only had that is paying you off is someone with an ace that was waiting for someone to bet. If I was raised in that situation, I'm definitely calling, and paying off the boat. In that situation I actually throw out a decent but weak bet (1/3 pot maybe, and HOPE I get raised.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by storm75m

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by dalecooper

If I am raised I will very likely fold.

---

Say what? Maybe I don't understand correctly, but the only hand you fear is a badly misplayed boat, don't you want a re-raise? The only had that is paying you off is someone with an ace that was waiting for someone to bet. If I was raised in that situation, I'm definitely calling, and paying off the boat. In that situation I actually throw out a decent but weak bet (1/3 pot maybe, and HOPE I get raised.

---

what about pockets that caught the under-house.

i definitely dont want to push my chips in at this moment. pocket 8s would call you all day long.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by storm75m

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by dalecooper

If I am raised I will very likely fold.

---

Say what? Maybe I don't understand correctly, but the only hand you fear is a badly misplayed boat, don't you want a re-raise? The only had that is paying you off is someone with an ace that was waiting for someone to bet. If I was raised in that situation, I'm definitely calling, and paying off the boat. In that situation I actually throw out a decent but weak bet (1/3 pot maybe, and HOPE I get raised.

---

If I am raised BIG I fold - how about that? A moderate raise I would definitely call. I think if a big raise comes down, you have to consider a misplayed boat with an ace, or a late-arriving boat with a middle pocket pair involved. Also keep in mind that this is a modest pot (there was only a small pre-flop raise which was called by two players). I'm not married to this hand, it's nowhere near the nuts, so I'm not trying to make the read or fortune of a lifetime on this one.

In this vein, what kind of idjit raises on the river on this hand UNLESS they have a boat? You say you aren't too worried about the boat because it would have to be misplayed; I say you're more likely to run into a misplayed monster (happens all day long on Party) than some fool who will raise you on the river with a pair of 8s or some nonsense like that. In other words there are two kinds of potential fools here, and one is going to take your money, and one will give it to you; why flip that coin just hoping he's dumb one way and not the other?

Well I wasn't saying to push, or call an all-in bet (depends on your read) but if they let it get to the river with no one betting, I say more times that not your hand is good.

But I understand that that's not even the question here. The question is should he give the last-to-act a chance at a steal. IMHO, at the river I go ahead and make my move, or it's a wasted opportunity. Unless you have a read on the last-to-act and you know he may take a stab at it... But I still make a bet anyway. I've had too many situations come up where I've tried to trap on the river like that, and they check behind, and I feel like I missed some money. Think about it like this:

If you bet:
Someone else may think you're trying to steal and reraise you, or just call with a worse hand.
Someone else may have a decent hand like two pair, and call anyway.
Someone who slowplayed an ace will raise you


If you just check to the last person:
They may attempt a steal
They check as well

I think you have more options by betting.

ya, if you check youre definitely missing a bet.