Is pushing here the wrong play?

PokerStars Game #1566452603: Hold'em No Limit ($2/$4) - 2005/04/22 - 16:18:00 (ET)
Table 'Normannia' Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: Koira ($94 in chips)
Seat 2: Detroit Dick ($382 in chips)
Seat 3: augie98 ($251.90 in chips)
Seat 4: AvatarKava ($379.55 in chips)
Seat 5: TheSeraph ($782.30 in chips)
Seat 6: phatchic ($146 in chips)
Seat 7: tayhey ($100.50 in chips)
Seat 8: Phat_Cow ($112 in chips)
Phat_Cow: posts small blind $2
Koira: posts big blind $4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to AvatarKava [Jd Jc]
Detroit Dick: raises $4 to $8
augie98: folds
AvatarKava: raises $8 to $16
TheSeraph: calls $16
phatchic: calls $16
tayhey: folds
Phat_Cow: folds
Koira: calls $12
Detroit Dick: calls $8
*** FLOP *** [Jh Tc 7d]
Koira: checks
Detroit Dick: checks
AvatarKava: checks
TheSeraph: bets $60
phatchic: folds
Koira: folds
Detroit Dick: folds
AvatarKava: calls $60
*** TURN *** [Jh Tc 7d] [Qd]
AvatarKava: checks
TheSeraph: bets $100
AvatarKava: raises $203.55 to $303.55 and is all-in
TheSeraph said, "no way"
TheSeraph said, "u went fishingw ith AK?????????"
TheSeraph said, "cant fold this...."
TheSeraph: calls $203.55
*** RIVER *** [Jh Tc 7d Qd] [5c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
AvatarKava: shows [Jd Jc] (three of a kind, Jacks)
TheSeraph: shows [Qs Qc] (three of a kind, Queens)
TheSeraph said, "oh"
TheSeraph collected $806.10 from pot
AvatarKava said, "omg"
TheSeraph said, "damn"
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $809.10 | Rake $3
Board [Jh Tc 7d Qd 5c]
Seat 1: Koira (big blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 2: Detroit Dick folded on the Flop
Seat 3: augie98 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: AvatarKava showed [Jd Jc] and lost with three of a kind, Jacks
Seat 5: TheSeraph showed [Qs Qc] and won ($806.10) with three of a kind, Queens
Seat 6: phatchic folded on the Flop
Seat 7: tayhey (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: Phat_Cow (small blind) folded before Flop

Looks right to me. My only fear would be that he actually held AK.

Guy took me for > 200BBs in 4 hands (KK vs. AA, this one, and my QQ vs. his JJ but his set held up).

Let the conspiracy theories begin... :roll:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by AvatarKava

Let the conspiracy theories begin... :roll:

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RIGGED!

tough beats man. I'm sure your chips will find thier way home soon enough though. :wink:

{This post has been removed}

Interesting hand.

What range of hands do you put him on given the pre-flop action? Would he play AA/KK like this or play back at you pre-flop?

You're behind AK/QQ, but ahead of AQ/AA/KK/TT. Yet, those hands aren't liking this board.

This is a really weird situation where you're way ahead or way behind with a set and I almost think a call is in order. But it's hard to go too wrong getting in your money with a set.

With only $300 left in my stack I'm not sure if it makes sense to call here. If anything other than a K or A... maybe a 9 comes off (which would increase the number of plausible hands he could hold that beat me considerably), I can't see myself folding to what will amount to a bet of about half the size of the pot on the end.

Does a fold make sense here? It seems really weak to do so to a bet less than the size of the pot - as you stated, it's about 50/50 that I'm either way ahead or way behind.

Side question - do you think it changes the result of the hand if I raise on the flop?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by AvatarKava

With only $300 left in my stack I'm not sure if it makes sense to call here. If anything other than a K or A... maybe a 9 comes off (which would increase the number of plausible hands he could hold that beat me considerably), I can't see myself folding to what will amount to a bet of about half the size of the pot on the end.

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I think a call is fine if it saves you any money when you're behind if he fails to put you for a decision for all your chips on the river. Given how tight this guy is, consider that he will often fold a worse hand to your re-raise and call with pretty much AK/KK/TT/77 maybe AA. However, if you're ahead he'll put in another bet on the river and if the board pairs you can put the rest in.

How much of a read did you have at the time? He looks really tight and hence is easy to put on a hand here. That Queen was the worst possible turn card for you vs a tight range.

1,628 games 0.005 secs 325,600 games/sec

Board: Jh Tc 7d Qd
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 52.3956 % [ 00.52 00.00 ] { JdJc }
Hand 2: 47.6044 % [ 00.48 00.00 ] { AA-TT, 77, AKs, AKo }

If you can rule out AK given the flop bet...

924 games 0.005 secs 184,800 games/sec

Board: Jh Tc 7d Qd
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 75.0000 % [ 00.75 00.00 ] { JdJc }
Hand 2: 25.0000 % [ 00.25 00.00 ] { AA-TT, 77 }

just out of interest, Fnord, where do u get these figures from? Is there a link?

I'm fairly certain he's using http://www.pokerstove.com/

I would consider check-raising on the flop to hedge against the possibility of getting outdraw by A-K.