Profitability of Axs

I know Axs is supposed to have big implied odds if you hit, but in my short poker career I tend to disagree. Once in a great while you will flop the nut flush, but then who is going to be willing to throw a lot of chips in with a suited board, provided they don't have the flush? Sometimes you will flop the nut flush draw, which is a lot more common, and it becomes quite obvious you are chasing a draw when you call and call and when the 3rd flush card hits, you get active, so smarter players will immediately shut down when that 3rd flush card hits, minimizing your profits. Furthermore, if they put you on a flush draw, they will probably bet the pot to take away your odds, which in turn decreases the profitability of Axs. It just seems like the odds (I don't know exactly what they are) of hitting your nut flush is so slim and the implied odds are not really there because rarely will your flush be disguised well, unlike a set.

My new strategy for Axs is to only limp in CO and on the button and BB and SB in ring games, and dump them in tourneys as chips are way to precious (shorthanded is another story). What are your thoughts?

Ax is only good in multiway pots when you don't have to invest much pre-flop. They pay off well in 3-4 way pots, and when someone hits the k/q high flush.

Don't get attached to them and play them like you would suited connectors...

In 10k hands logged A2s through A9s ranging from .05/.1 to .5/1 has made me a total of 20 bucks. The hand is just much too obvious when it hits. It's like a broadway straight, you're gonna be hard pressed to get some guys chips in the center if you hit broadway. Even then the flush is much more obvious and some guy may have at least hit two pair with his JQ that are giving you a straight.

Those 10k hands about 9k of them are TA from bison's rules.

Anymore I strictly play it from late position, the hand loses half its punch, if not more if you're in early position. In SNGs and tourneys I don't even call with it in LP if I'm around 15-20bb might raise with it if I'm looking for some folds though.

I only play ax when they are like A3 suited, A2 suited, for the wheel possibility, and when I can limp.

hands like A6 A8 are easy folds.

Somewhat mentioned above. For Axs, you want position, and an unraised multiway pot. Without either, it's a questionable call. Hitting the flush isn't the only way to win though...flopping two pair works just as well.

And for the record, A8s (hell, even A6s) is stronger than A2s. The wheel doesn't come enough to counter the high card strength - esp in NL where drawing is weaker.

- Jeffrey

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Originally Posted by JeffreyGB

And for the record, A8s (hell, even A6s) is stronger than A2s. The wheel doesn't come enough to counter the high card strength - esp in NL where drawing is weaker.

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If you're multi-way looking for a cheap monster it doesn't matter much. However, if you're short handed, in a steal situation or playing a limit game where you will take a marginal board for your hand pretty far it matters.

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Originally Posted by Fnord

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Originally Posted by JeffreyGB

And for the record, A8s (hell, even A6s) is stronger than A2s. The wheel doesn't come enough to counter the high card strength - esp in NL where drawing is weaker.

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If you're multi-way looking for a cheap monster it doesn't matter much. However, if you're short handed, in a steal situation or playing a limit game where you will take a marginal board for your hand pretty far it matters.

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Quoted for truth.

I've made money with Ax s even though the flush never came. A good semi-bluff on the flop or the turn can sometimes take down the pot right there.

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Originally Posted by Eric

I've made money with Ax s even though the flush never came. A good semi-bluff on the flop or the turn can sometimes take down the pot right there.

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Does that really speak to the value of the hand though? Basically everyone was scared of the board and folded...couldn't the same thing have happened when betting any bluff? Or was it simply that the Axs gave you sufficient confidence to bet where you'd otherwise have check/folded?

- Jeffrey

Betting just any hand might not win the pot often enough to be +EV. But if you (semi-)bluff bet a flush draw you have the additional value of still being able to win if called (with the advantage of 1. having disguised your hand, and 2. having possibly blocked larger bet by your opponents, letting you see the turn and river cheaper). The combined ways of winning makes bluffing profitable here, and that "speaks to strength of the hand" IMO.

I like to play Axs, not sure if its a leak? Trying to learn to fold it from early position at least.

I love limping in with Axs, and have made a lot with that hand.

someone needs to have a good hand for you to make a lot, but when they do, you can often take the entire stack.

do NOT limp with Axs unless your against someone with deep pockets (or more often, several people with deep pockets.)

basically, pay very little to see the flop, and use implied odds(not pot odds) to decide if you want to stay for the turn/river. Someone with a set is much more likely to do heavy betting when they know you called a bet they think was "large" before the flush hit. (i'll call a pot sized bet with a nut flush draw IF they have deep pockets for when the flush hits.)


This is at .25/.50 ... I assume that everything changes as you move up in limits.

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Originally Posted by jmontis

I only play ax when they are like A3 suited, A2 suited, for the wheel possibility, and when I can limp.

hands like A6 A8 are easy folds.

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Not to mention when a wheel is available, you usually have the ass end of it..