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In a recent game w/ my friends one guy flopped a nut straight and was all-in againt 3 guys, 2 of which ended up w/ a full house.
If you (against 2 opponents) have a straight, w/ 2 cards of same suit on the board, and you are fairly sure one person has a flush draw and the other a set, is it worth it to risk all your money, either in a cash game or tournament?
If you don't. You can't play poker successfully.Quote:
Originally Posted by goolick
-'rilla
you have a better chance of winning than they do
Of course there are situations where you should fold the nuts.
The classic example: You make final table at a tourney, you get dealt AA, all eight players go all in. You are short stacked and all eight players have you covered. You stand to rocket to second place if you just fold them. Second place would buy you a new house. You fold.
In the situation you describe I might lay it down if its a five way or something along those lines and I have reads that they are tight players, where someone drawing to a better straight, the flush and the boat... the outs have your hand reduced to a coinflip. If they are loose players then call and let them pay you off. 3 way? Probably won't lay it down, late in an SNG plenty of players will go AI with middle pair, TPTK even bottom pair or overcards.
that is assuming the big stack wins, but yeah if that ever happened i would fold. but it wontQuote:
Originally Posted by Hubris1
Fold the nuts?
Never.
(ring game perspective)
NEVER.
Quote:
Originally Posted by goolick
:shock:
im pretty sure you all know but he was jokingQuote:
Originally Posted by Xianti
Well then maybe he'll learn not to put it in bold!!Quote:
Originally Posted by thestrokes
-'rilla
You have a decent chance of going broke, but you also have an excellent chance of tripling your money. If you're unwilling to risk your money in this situation, then you probably shouldn't have bought-in.
This is a decent situation for you. You have the nuts and if you put someone on a set, you know they'll probably pay you off. The flush draw can always be scary but you must be vigilant. By throwing money into the pot you may be raised if there is a set, which is good for you. You are also making the flush draw make a mistake by calling (assuming you bet the pot or close to it.
Yes, you will get busted by a flush now and then, but in the long run this is a profitable play in my opinion.
i agree with you completely, but does anyone have any math to back this up...id do it but...Quote:
Originally Posted by Radix
decided to save you a weak excuse for being lazy
Not to be mean, but I can't believe that you would ask this question. You can get your money in with the best it and if you get outdrawn, so be it. You will win enough to make this profitable.Quote:
Originally Posted by goolick
Actually im not sure it will be more profitable...Quote:
Originally Posted by jmrogers7
in the situation he described the Flush draw has a 25.5%, the set has a 35.5% the straght has a 38.5% chance of winning, .5% chance of tie.
So even though he is favored to win against any single player, he is not favored against 2 opponents and will lose money in the long run.
Don't forget how big the pot will be.Quote:
Originally Posted by thestrokes
It'll be a winning move in the long run.
-'rilla
Zing! My bad sorry.Quote:
Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla
In that case both the set and the straight would be making a good decision by moving in here then, correct?
Yes, the flush draw would probably *think* it's a winning move but doesn't know he's not drawing to all 9 outs. The flush draw + pot money makes it a winning move for the other two.
-'rilla
Quote:
Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla
Bingo.