Downswings

First of all, let me say that I've been playing for a meager four months, and profiting for only three.

Initially I was down roughly 500 playing limit, moved to NL25 on party and gradually made it back and about another 1,000.

My questions mostly have to do with variance/bankroll :

You often hear about having a certain number of buy-ins to be comfortable playing in your limit. Let's say it's recommended to have 10-12 buy-ins, and you drop six of them. What is your play now? Move down a limit, maybe, but then what was the point of having 10-12 buy-ins? I guess what I'm saying is are you supposed to be able to drop 6 buy-ins and then make them back all within your normal limit?

Second of all, I'm having trouble deciding whether I play to a profit or not. If I cannot beat the game, I will probably cease to play it. The past week or so I've lost approx. 300 of my 1000 (12 buy-ins at PP NL25)bankroll (I cashed out my original expense). The best upswing I had this week was 100 bucks, but I lost it right back the same night. If I held/increased my profit for those three months, would you assume I'm a profitable player, and I'm just having a horrible week? Or am I one of those stories people like to tell about "turning 25 into 2500, then losing it all back, and never realizing they're a horrible player....blah blah blah."

I think a lot of my losses were on really good hands. I coudln't tell you how many times I've had AA v KK, or had my nut straight outdrawn by a set, you guys know how the beats go.

Anyway, I'm uncomfortable playing now, it seems like either my great hands get outdrawn, my preflop all-ins are dogs or lose anyway, and my reads are off and I'm paying off suckers who drew without odds to a flush and hit it.

Let me say I'm not looking for sympathy, just maybe a plan: what would you do in my shoes? I still have 28 buy-ins, just losing almost 100 a day fr a few in a row, it doesn't seem like so much anymore.

Take about 5 days off from poker. Spend it relaxing and doing anything that IS NOT related to poker, you'll come back refreshed and ready to destroy the game again. I do this everytime I have a bad run and it works wonders.

Yeah. You should probably take a break and when you return play for reasonable stakes given your bankroll. I'm in the process of rebuilding my bankroll right now after a solid week of bad beats and I've been doing it the slower, more certain way. It's a lot less stressful.

the point of having 10-15 buy-ins is mainly so you're comfortable playing at that limit, so you won't back off from making what you think is the right move just because you're afraid of risking so much money. I've played at 100NL for about 100 hands, with a 400 BR, and my adrenaline was definitely pumping. it was great. but, i'm only comfortable with .25/.50.

about losing it, i think you should lose it only until you stay in the range. if you're at 12 buy-ins, and you lose to 8, you need to slow down and ask yourself what the cause of it is.

In your case, i think you're fine still playing at 25NL. take a week off, distinguish between bad luck, playing badly, and being a bad player, find out what fits your case, maybe drop a limit, and come back refreshed and ready to tear it up.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Greedo017

the point of having 10-15 buy-ins is mainly so you're comfortable playing at that limit, so you won't back off from making what you think is the right move just because you're afraid of risking so much money.

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I think that's probably right. One day when I was in Las Vegas, I had won a decent amount at lower-stakes limit and no limit tables, so that night I decided to buy into a $2/$5 no limit table at the Bellagio for the fun of it. I felt a little overextended, so I found myself unable to take even the slightest risks. I was afraid to make standard bluffs on the flop, and in one hand, I almost folded K-K preflop facing a raise and a large reraise. I think that when you aren't willing to take risks in poker, you'll tend to profit much less than you would otherwise.

I'm taking a week off starting today. Last night I played a $5 sitNgo just because I do well in them and after a week downswing in ring I wanted to win something. I was not in the best mood and I was tired. Despite this I made all the right plays, played super tight and captialized on hands when I had them. I made one of the best check raises ever and duped two all-ins vs. my Q7 boat (I was BB) and took a huge pot down. I got out of hands that were risky. Then I had Q10 and Q rag rag on the board. Some super bluffer chaser who had a 2-1 chip lead on me put me all-in after I sunk 1/3 of my stack in a semi-bluff. There were only 4 people left and two had less than 400 chips and the blinds were over 100. I was gauranteed ITM and knew it. I called the all-in. I still cannot figure out why. My brain just did not work any more. I concentrated so hard up to that point. I don't even remember what went through my mind at that moment or what made me click all-in. There was zero justification. I dont' even know what he had that beat me - I don't care. I have the history but refuse to look because it does not matter. I made the worst call ever and I don't know why.

I'm going to try to forget about poker for a week even though I love it. When I come back, I'm going to concentrate on every play every second and make rational decisions. I'm going to track my progress and compare before and after. I hope I do better because I love playing.

I'll let you know how it works out.

"I made the worst call ever and I don't know why."

we've all done it. or at least i have. there was about 60 people left in a $3 mtt w/ rebuys, started with like 300 people, nice money. I manage to double up to 20k, then take out another 8k guy to get to 28k, top 5 of 60. this happened in like 5 hands. then an 18k stack gets moved to my table, and pushes on a flop where i have top pair. i call, like a MORON, he has a set i drop to 10k. i was so frustrated that i just lost such a huge advantage, i basically just gave up and busted out.

Yeah, those bad calls can be real expensive. I hate it when I build up a nice stack in a tournament and then BAM! One dumbass move and you just wasted half of it. It's same thing in cash games. I'll spend a good few hours building up like double my buy-in and then get too cocky and in one second I lose half (or more) of it. It's like the dumbass principal slapping you in the face. "Oh, you think you're so good that you're top pair can't be beat? Let's see how you feel after THIS kick in the nuts!"

I decided that the bankroll issue was too personal. So, I am back on the micro limits to play 25,000 hands to find out just what I do need.

This way I reckon I'll answer the question, appropriate to my situation and style.