Pushing allin with a set on the turn, your thoughts?

So I've been considering the situation where you hold a set vs the inevitable players who will be drawing to a straight, flush, or both at the same time. This can be a real pain to deal with, trying to figure out what to do, especially for newer players.

Many people would say the correct strategy is to bet the pot on the flop and turn to both disguise the set you've made and to lay bad pot odds for the people drawing. I used to do this but I really hate getting sucked out on when the river comes and all that money is in the pot already.

So I've changed my strategy a bit. Any time I flop a set and there is a straight or a flush draw on the board, I'll bet the pot on the flop to get players invested in the hand. If the turn misses, and there is still only a straight OR a flush draw on the board, I'll push allin.
(My reasoning in separating the flush and the straight draws is because conceivably someone could be holding both, or two players holding each one. This would make the odds of one of them hitting better than the made hand)

There are several reasons why I think this is +EV play.

1) When you flop a set and get a lot of action, theres a good chance you'll be allin right on the flop. So when that doesn't happen, your most likely against top pair or a draw.
Your opponent could be slowplaying a larger set here, but I'm ignoring this because you'll end up paying him off by the river anyway if the scare cards don't hit.
2) If your against top pair, its unlikely they will call both escalating pot sized bets and then go to the river and call another big bet. This would be the risk involved in this manuever. Against a fishy opponent, by going allin on the turn your losing possible profit from an unimproved river card.
3) The type of player who is willing to call for bad pot odds just on the chance he or she will "get lucky" and hit their flush is the same type of player that will call an allin bet on the turn. In addition, this type of player is also much more likely to be pot committed once they've chased on the flop and missed.

So the bottom line is this.

Positives:

1) Pushing allin on the turn gives you a 4:1 advantage since your set should hold up unimproved against just about anything else out there.
2) No more annoying river situations where you have a lot of money invested with a hand thats probably beaten.
3) Table image as a maniac.
Negatives:
1) Loss of possible bets from top pair on the river.

I don't really see a leak in this move, anyone have thoughts? I feel like this will work a good amount. Sure there will be a lot more folds, but any win is a good win.

the way you play this really depends on what type of game your playing and your situation.

If its the early rounds of a tournament, I'd be very careful as you're going to get lots of loose players that want to double up fast. I would not recommend all-inning at the turn, or at all. Bet a healthy amount on the flop and turn, but not enough to cripple you if he calls. There's other hands to be won. Just b/c you flopped a set doesn't mean you won't get any other good hands.

Late in a tourney I would all-in agaist an average to upper average chip count. Low stacks will chase, high stacks will chase.

Then again, if you have late position, it makes your job a hell of a lot easier. Based on how they bet, you can basically read what they have.

Playing a cash game ? I'd bet large on the flop and even bigger on the turn. Usually they'll fold unless they have a lot of outs.

Thats just my two cents.

haha i knew i forgot something. stupid me.

I've been using this in cash games only, obviously tourney play is much
much different. :roll:

It depends. I too will push allin if I feel like someone is going to try and chase for cheap. Sometimes bad beats happen to good hands. Such is life.

dunno, betting pot in a multiway giving them 3-1 or 4-1 + odds.... with guys drawing seems like giving them odds, and allowing them to crack you when they shouldn't be seeing any more cards.....go all-in, and if they reach and you get cracked, they were making a bad reach and got lucky.....


Having all your chips in when you are in the best position is much better than hedging yourself for the bust and giving them better pot odds to make the call.....

i find when i get cute, and try to slowly extract, that will be the time the 3rd heart falls or the 1 card straight hits......

Quote:

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Originally Posted by gregor

dunno, betting pot in a multiway giving them 3-1 or 4-1 + odds....

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The only way that anyone has 4-1 odds when you bet the pot is if they are last to act AND several people before them called. This is likely to be a rare situation indeed. If you have this many people in on the turn after betting the flop and there are still only draws showing, then by all means, push. Make sure that the only things there are draws though. Chances are, if you have this many people seeing the turn, you didn't bet pot-sized on the flop. But in this situation, sure, go ahead and push if the better hand isn't there.

- Jeffrey

If I flop a set and there are 3-4 players in the hand and obvious str8 and flush possibilities, overbet the pot or push. It is best to win a small pot than lose a big one. If you get your $ in with the best and they draw out then you can still tell yourself you made a good play.

If it is heads up, I don't fear the draws so much and will just play straightforward. Even if the draw gets there, then it is an opportunity for you to bluff at it.

The problem is, if you bet 3/4 pot at .50/1 game it is only 3-4 bucks, which is not enough money to weed out the "gamblers" who will chase. If you blast the pot, and they chase you are gambling that they will come along and your hand will hold up.

I think of myself as a winning player and at lower limits I will chase even getting poor odds just to tilt people and take advantage of implied odds. Often people won't lay down a set even when it is obvious that you made your draw. Even if I lose, i'll just rebuy and tighten up and get paid off later.

Again, I am going to note that you make money in poker by making your opponent make mistakes. If your opponent is on a draw and you bet the pot or less into multiple players, it is correct for someone with position to call on the draw. If you move in on the turn to force them out, it is correct for them to fold. So, what you have done is make your opponent do exactly what he should have done.
The correct play would be to overbet the pot by maybe 1.5x to give draws bad odds to call, then bet the pot on the turn to give them bad odds again.

I have to add- Bad beats happen.

If I am in a game and I bet, I bet the pot. This prevents good players from getting a read on the strength of my hand. So, while I say you should bet 1.5x the pot, if you do this when you have a set, and then say, bet 1/2 the pot with TPGK, good players will get an easy read on the texture of your hand.