Playing against an overpair No-Limit

Lets say I have picked up a huge tell on a certain player who will raise 2x BB with cards such as AQ, AJs pretty consistently and (just to keep it simple) every time he has a KK or AA he will raise exactly 3.5x BB. Facing no resistance beyond cold calls on the flop and turn, he will bet the pot both times and say...maybe half the time or less will call an all-in re-raise on the river. This player reminds me alot of the average book-reading 25NL players I run into at times.

Anyways, assuming my read is dead on, would it ever be profitable to call his preflop raise with marginal hands, PPs, or less in the hopes of hitting the flop hard and de-stacking with at least a 2-pair vs his single overpair?

If the flop isnt favorable, fold. Draws are out the window with his pot bets.

Being able to see someone's hole cards (prettymuch) is a huge advantage, but so is having AA-KK heads-up.

Im guessing that this will not work out too well in the long run, as most marginal hands and PPs need several limpers to be profitable.

But still...

It's probably not profitable, and that's one reason he raises that much. With a smaller pocket pair you hit a set roughly 1 time in 9. You need to make so much money that one time, that the other 8 times you have to fold are compensated for. i.e. you have to make about 32xBB. With suited connectors or something like that, your odds of flopping two pair are 1 in 50 (clearly not a favorable expectation for the hand); odds of flopping a flush or straight are very small (probably another 1 in 50, if that); and odds of flopping a good draw to either a flush or straight, a lot higher (1 in 9 just for the flush draw, not sure about the straight - but I would guess the same or less for an OESD) - HOWEVER, flopping a draw against an overpair is not a favorable situation either, because then you end up calling bad pot odds bets to stay in and try to suck out. So you compound your pre-flop mistake by calling in more situations where you should be folding. If you guess that he will only call an all-in half the time when you do have a hand that beats him, this just makes this speculative venture a lot less profitable for you.

To me, the benefit of having this read is that you can fold and save yourself money. Don't give him action on his premium hands. He's hurting himself, you don't need to try to get lucky and hurt him further.

Of course, on the very rare occasion that he makes this raise and you have aces... giddyup.

Bottom line, if you are heads up against a hand that has you beaten 80-20 or so (overpair vs. undercards or an underpair) - you need to let it go. Might be a different story if other players are calling; you can make an argument that your odds of winning improve somewhat, depending what the other players have, and your implied odds go up because there are more players to potentially pay you off.

you have a 1 in 8 chance of catching the set on the flop. if both of your stacks are more than 8 times his raise, call.

i suppose from time to time, he will out draw you so maybe push that up to 10 times the inital bet.

but yes, knowing what hand he has is a *huge* advantage. you can take his stack away from time to time. Fold if flop misses you. but when it hits, you get his stack. that's great.

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Originally Posted by whileone

you have a 1 in 8 chance of catching the set on the flop. if both of your stacks are more than 8 times his raise, call.

i suppose from time to time, he will out draw you so maybe push that up to 10 times the inital bet.

but yes, knowing what hand he has is a *huge* advantage. you can take his stack away from time to time. Fold if flop misses you. but when it hits, you get his stack. that's great.

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this is wrong. you need something like 12x raise to call because you won't stack the other guy verytime you hit your set

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Originally Posted by SmackinYaUp

maybe half the time or less will call an all-in re-raise on the river.

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oh yeah, you need better odds if he dosn't go all in with the aces. On the other hand, you may be able to induce him into going all in on the flop more frequently by raising him, or calling and showing drawing hands. tough to say. If you put him on aces, you need to get his whole stack, and both of them have to be fairly large in relation to the BB. on the other hand you're a small favorite to AK/AQ/AJ all of the other stuff he raises. so it's probably generaly profitable, against that guy, because you know when he hits his overcards.

It seems to me that it could easily be profitable to call the 3.5xbb raise if you know without a doubt that he has AA or KK, and of course that he does not know that you have this perfect read on him.

If an A comes on the flop, bet anything less than a pot sized bet and 50% of the time he will fold his kings if he's a good player. Meaning, you are getting better than 1:1 pot odds. If he calls or raises get out ASAP because it means he's got trip Aces.

Similar thing can be applied in the case of a K on the flop.

If neither A or K on the flop, you may be able to man handle him pretending to flop trips, a straight, or whatever the board scares up. It's a game of information. If you have perfect information on what he's holding, what more can you ask for?

That was my "in theory" response, btw. 8-)
(Since the question was posted in a "let's assume it's a perfect world" manner.)

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Originally Posted by FlyingSaucy

It seems to me that it could easily be profitable to call the 3.5xbb raise if you know without a doubt that he has AA or KK, and of course that he does not know that you have this perfect read on him.

If an A comes on the flop, bet anything less than a pot sized bet and 50% of the time he will fold his kings if he's a good player. Meaning, you are getting better than 1:1 pot odds. If he calls or raises get out ASAP because it means he's got trip Aces.

Similar thing can be applied in the case of a K on the flop.

If neither A or K on the flop, you may be able to man handle him pretending to flop trips, a straight, or whatever the board scares up. It's a game of information. If you have perfect information on what he's holding, what more can you ask for?

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This is a very good point but I think that the only time it would be possible to bet less than half the pot and show a profit is if an Ace falls because when a K falls then hes either got trips or has the Ace overs which would be hard to get a fold from. Repping the straights or flushes could potentially get the folds but this does not seem like an attempt that would be successful often enough to show a profit. Im thinking more along the lines of waiting until the flop connects with my cards to stack him.

Maybe if I only called the preflop raise with pocket pairs (which should hit sets 12% of the time, correct?) then I would hit the flop often enough to make up for the 35 BBs paid to see the flop ten times. These sets would be hidden for additional surprise value to get more of the stack. Am I thinking in straight lines here? Its getting very late for me here...

Then again this is all just theory taking place in a perfect world but it is the first theory question Ive formed on my own since learning hold em to any extent

That's true, you probably will have to flop something legit, and trips might be a good way to do it, provided you can get back the money from the 88% of the time that it did not hit.

Then again, good players can and will fold to aggressive betting on a scary board if their AA or KK is unimproved. I think that is something that can be exploited.

if you know he has AA or QQ and you have rags (relative to him) why would you call?

That is a TELL, and if you can spot it, you use it to your advantage....

if he overvalues/overbets his hands, you can exploit him more than trying to crack monster hands....

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Originally Posted by gregor

if you know he has AA or QQ and you have rags (relative to him) why would you call?

That is a TELL, and if you can spot it, you use it to your advantage....

if he overvalues/overbets his hands, you can exploit him more than trying to crack monster hands....

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First off I dont think a 3.5x BB raise is over betting AA KK. Second, how can I exploit him without cracking monster hands?

You exploit it by folding your crap hands when he's got a monster.