Do I call this raise?

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02-02-2005, 11:24 AM
Tripps7

Do I call this raise?

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A:spade:, 5:spade:.
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, 1 fold, Hero calls, 1 fold, Button calls, 1 fold, BB raises, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, Hero calls, Button calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) K:spade:, 5:club:, 7:club: (5 players)
BB bets, UTG+2 raises, MP1 folds, Hero calls, Button calls, BB folds.

Button is a total fish 69.90 / 3.5 / .46
BB and UTG+2 are total LAggs

I figure Button and BB are going to call. I have seen the button cold call 3 bets PF with any A. BB has been a calling station. With the Button and BB calling. That gives me about 9.2:1 pot odds as I figure I have 5 outs (A or 5) about 9.4:1 to take down the pot. BB and Button will most likely call to the river, giving me some implied odds. Plus I have a backdoor flush draw to the nuts.

Question is, do the implied Odds and backdoor flush potential make up for the lack of pot odds in this case?

If either BB or UTG+2 are the least bit passive I fold preflop, but this table was ridiculously loose as I just had my AA cracked by a guy cold calling my preflop raise with 78o and flopping 2 pair.
02-02-2005, 11:49 AM
koolmoe

Your backdoor nut flush draw is worth another 1.5 outs, but I don't like the prospects of a three bet from the BB. It could get very expensive to continue here. If you're pretty sure that no one will raise behind you, you can continue, but otherwise I'd probably fold to the flop raise.
02-02-2005, 12:47 PM
Gatlin Dan

I would fold this pre-flop to the raise. The backdoor draw adds outs, but not many. Given the pre-flop strength shown he has likely paired a king or has you out-kicked. The backdoor draw is likely make you want to conitnue when you probably shouldn't.
02-04-2005, 05:27 PM
ChezJ

on the flop you have the 5 obvious outs (A's, 5's) plus another 1.5 outs for the backdoor. call it 6 outs. so you need about 7:1 pot odds to continue.

there's 10.5 SB's preflop, plus 3 more after the bet and raise. so you are facing 13.5:2 (over 6:1) to call. if you really believe button and BB will call, then your implied odds are 16.5:2 (over 8:1).

that's an overlay to your 7:1 statistical odds, so believe it or not, it may be a profitable call.

as someone else point out, though, you are screwed if BB or button re-raises.

but if you 3-bet it, you might fold the BB and/or convince the raiser you hit a set. then you can go for the free card play. extremely doubtful though.

ChezJ
02-04-2005, 06:40 PM
gabe

i would say there are less than 6 outs because of the flush possibility. I would fold it even if they are LAG.
02-04-2005, 06:41 PM
gabe

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gatlin Dan

I would fold this pre-flop to the raise. The backdoor draw adds outs, but not many. Given the pre-flop strength shown he has likely paired a king or has you out-kicked. The backdoor draw is likely make you want to conitnue when you probably shouldn't.

Fold for one more SB? The pot is huge, folding is not a possibility.
02-21-2005, 02:59 AM
Gatlin Dan

Quote:

Originally Posted by gabe

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gatlin Dan

I would fold this pre-flop to the raise. The backdoor draw adds outs, but not many. Given the pre-flop strength shown he has likely paired a king or has you out-kicked. The backdoor draw is likely make you want to conitnue when you probably shouldn't.

Fold for one more SB? The pot is huge, folding is not a possibility.

I read the preflop action incorrectly. Already in the pot I would call this one more sb bet. But I'm not going to call the flop. you are probably behind with middle pair and would be relying on the flush to bail you out.