AKs fold on flop

thoughts ? i know what the person had but i'll divulge later.
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Hand #3701916-14012 at Southington (No Limit Hold'em)
Powered by UltimateBet
Started at 30/Dec/04 20:27:16

Poker1X4Me is at seat 0 with $4.90.
Turn is at seat 1 with $7.60.
shiZZa is at seat 2 with $22.60.
flyingpig88 is at seat 3 with $6.38.
triplenickel1 is at seat 4 with $20.50.
IAh2oBug is at seat 5 with $4.80.
Spuds1177 is at seat 6 with $17.10.
Doses is at seat 7 with $2.35.
sburne is at seat 8 with $2.45.
suzie79 is at seat 9 with $15.91.
The button is at seat 9.

Poker1X4Me posts the small blind of $.05.
Turn posts the big blind of $.10.

Poker1X4Me: -- --
Turn: -- --
shiZZa: -- --
flyingpig88: -- --
triplenickel1: -- --
IAh2oBug: -- --
Spuds1177: -- --
Doses: -- --
sburne: -- --
suzie79: Kd Ad

Pre-flop:

shiZZa folds. flyingpig88 calls. triplenickel1
calls. IAh2oBug folds. Spuds1177 calls. Doses
folds. sburne folds. suzie79 raises to $.70.
Poker1X4Me calls. Turn folds. flyingpig88 folds.
triplenickel1 calls. Spuds1177 folds.

Flop (board: Qs Td 4d):

Poker1X4Me checks. triplenickel1 checks. suzie79
checks.

Turn (board: Qs Td 4d 6h):

Poker1X4Me bets $2.40. triplenickel1 folds. suzie79
folds, showing Kd Ad. Poker1X4Me is returned $2.40
(uncalled).



Hand #3701916-14012 Summary:

$.10 is raked from a pot of $2.40.
Poker1X4Me wins $2.30.
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so you had AdKd and flop came up Qs Td 4d. Giving you nut flush draw, gutshot straight draw, and two overs. So thats 18 outs! Youve got roughly two thirds of a chance at hitting something (62%)!
The two players in front of you both checked and you checked! What? Should have bet BIG!

If I was confident that my opponent didnt have trips, then I would have been happy to go AI on this.

Question : why didnt you bet on the flop or call the turn?

i think i should have definitely bet, let's say ~ 60% of the pot on the flop, from the outs, right .. on the turn i wasn't confident and the pot sized bet made me add up some numbers and at that time we're looking at 39% in terms of outs and I could lose big if there are trips.

Guy had KK btw.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bspahn

i think i should have definitely bet, let's say ~ 60% of the pot on the flop, from the outs, right .. on the turn i wasn't confident and the pot sized bet made me add up some numbers and at that time we're looking at 39% in terms of outs and I could lose big if there are trips.

Guy had KK btw.

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definietly should have bet on flop. On the turn I still would have called, because even if he does have trips then you still have 13 outs so you still had roughly a quarter of a chance at beating trips if thats what he had.

KK, interesting, I was going to say he had AA. Close enough. Question: He must have definitely been going for the checkraise on the flop. If you had bet on the flop, and he raised would you have folded?

interesting thought. that's when it would be really hand to know what type of player he was. had i bet on the flop, say half the pot, and got raised, i might have to very well think about the trips in which case my odds are closer to 50%, which then leads me to think of the implied odds. say we get to the turn and it doesnt help me then he's likely to bet as he's indicated that he most likely has the upper hand on the flop - ie i'd have to put more money in to see the river..

it's tough but i think if he'd re-raise the flop i'd fold. would you ?