Tough No limit hand

***** Hand History for Game 1197543424 *****
$25 NL Hold'em - Friday, November 19, 16:37:10 EDT 2004
Table Home of the brave (Real Money)
Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: Boomer_1956 ( $33.18 )
Seat 3: Schu419 ( $32.85 )
Seat 6: BabyKamikaze ( $20.45 )
Seat 7: jdiana86 ( $69.6 )
Seat 10: AntiguaPete ( $38.75 )
Seat 4: BigNasty82 ( $17.4 )
Seat 9: mvaugh ( $5 )
Seat 5: billy440 ( $10 )
Seat 2: mulchit ( $40.95 )
Seat 8: bigbelly6 ( $24.5 )
Boomer_1956 posts small blind [$0.25].
Schu419 posts big blind [$0.5].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to BabyKamikaze [ Ac Kc ]
BigNasty82 folds.
billy440 calls [$0.5].
BabyKamikaze raises [$2.5].
jdiana86 folds.
bigbelly6 folds.
mvaugh folds.
AntiguaPete folds.
Boomer_1956 calls [$2.25].
Schu419 folds.
billy440 folds.
** Dealing Flop ** [ Qs, Jd, Ks ]
Boomer_1956 checks.
>You have options at Table 23837 Table!.
>You have options at Table 23835 Table!.
BabyKamikaze bets [$4].
Boomer_1956 is all-In. (he had me more than covered so it costs me 14 to call)

With playing 4 tables at the same time its hard to get info on these people so the only thing I knew about him is once he bet into a flop all in with AA4 flop with 2 people seeing it with a 2 dollar raise with pocket jacks. (I had folded A5s or something is the only reason I remember)

So what would you do?

An all in with TPTK on a coordianted board without a read? Lay it down, live to play another day. He's got QJ at the very least as is protecting against all the draws.

-'rilla

Tough one w/o a read. At that level he is just as likely to have AQ or AJ as he is a set or 2 pair. Hell, he may even have the A10. But wait a minute, why is he pushing you AI on that flop had he flopped the str8?

I guess you have to put him on a set or 2 pair or big semibluff to the flush. I call, b/c I just don't care and I would rebuy if I busted out.
It's only 20 bucks.

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Originally Posted by SteveO

Tough one w/o a read. At that level he is just as likely to have AQ or AJ as he is a set or 2 pair. Hell, he may even have the A10. But wait a minute, why is he pushing you AI on that flop had he flopped the str8?

I guess you have to put him on a set or 2 pair or big semibluff to the flush. I call, b/c I just don't care and I would rebuy if I busted out.
It's only 20 bucks.

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lol, you should play poker with me more often! He may be pushing with the straight if he thinks he'll get a call (fishy move) and he's protecting against the flush. But I still believe two pair.

-'rilla

Good thoughts, I'll wait till tonight to post the end to see if anyone else has any thoughts on this.

On second thought I'll just post it now.

Boomer_1956 is all-In.
>You have options at Table 23837 Table!.
>You have options at Table 12765 Table!.
>You have options at Table 23837 Table!.
BabyKamikaze is all-In.
** Dealing Turn ** [ 3h ]
** Dealing River ** [ 7c ]
BabyKamikaze shows [ Ac, Kc ] a pair of kings.
Boomer_1956 shows [ Ah, Qd ] a pair of queens.
Boomer_1956 wins $12.73 from side pot #1 with a pair of queens.
BabyKamikaze wins $39.85 from the main pot with a pair of kings.
Game #1197549341 starts.


This is my thinking. Im paying like 13 something for a 40 dollar pot.

This has me paying 32% of the pot and I knew with him having 2 pair at the time at least thinking of all the outs I have that would put me to think that at worst I was getting 50/50 on my money. With this thought I was like well shit for all I know this idiot doesnt even have 2 pair and knows this would scare a lot of people and is trying to take it down right there with the threat of 2 pair. So anyway thats why I called and for shits and giggles I calculated the odds on cardplayer just now and this is what it was

Against KJ 37% to me
Against QJ 37% to me
against KQ 27% to me.

So I wasnt too far off on my odds with him having 2 pair. KQ is the only one that would have made it incorrect to call but given the fact I thought there was at least a decent chance he didnt even have 2 pair I made the call.


So what do you think now? Still think I should of folded now that you see the actual odds and given what I said.

Very curious play with AQ but hey can't argue with the results. I didn't really focus on the odds but if that was your reasoning, its a boarderline call. It would have been a laydown out of me but then again, I expected more from him.

I guess that's why it's so hard to play against the fishes, you never know how much you dominate them. :roll:

-'rilla

If i were bondock i would have called. I know you have a good enoguh BR and with TPTK you should call this, even iif he has two pair you still have some outs against him. You also mentioned this guy made a big bet with an AAx flop while he was holding JJ, it seems this is the kind of guy that likes to force people out when he sees a scary flop, just based on that i would have called this bet.


-anto

Basing a read off one hand is a dangerous practice. You should have played it readless and lived to play another day.

-'rilla

I'd probably have found a fold here too. I have a hard time putting him on AQ (why raise big with 2nd pair) without a strong read on him (although you did have a bit of a read and saw him overplay a hand previously). If you feel AQ + bluffs are any possibility here, it probably is +EV to call. Against most people though I'd have to play it as Gorilla would have....assume it's 2-pair or better and fold. Note that I said 2 pair or better. You're right that you have a decent number of outs vs. most 2-pair hands. You don't have as many outs vs. AT or a set of any kind. 2 pair is much more likely than a set, but AT is a strong possibility (If he'd call a preflop raise with KQ/KJ/QJ, he probably would with AT too).

In conclusion, I'd find a fold here but I don't hate your call based on:

1. Your previous observations of his play.
2. Your % chance of sucking out on a 2-pair hand relative to the pot size.

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but hey can't argue with the results.

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being result biased sucks. with range of hands that could push in this hand, this should be a easy lay down.

I'm thinking at best you are tied, otherwise you are underdog to

set/straight/2pair (both sets and 2 pairs very often will push in this sitation)

what kind of hands did you expect him to have when you called?

Quote:

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what kind of hands did you expect him to have when you called?

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I expected him to have 2 pair or lower since he had shown what he was capable of earlier.