Hands that are hurting me, never know whether to fold/push?

Are these wrong to be pushing with, I think I have a leak here, but cant see how they cant be +EV long term? Am I wrong?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed)

UTG ($71.35)
scgolfer ($117.8)
UTG+2 ($158.8)
MP1 ($98.05)
MP2 ($478.65)
MP3 ($79.3)
CO ($99)
Button ($231.95)
SB ($27)
BB ($305.75)

Preflop: scgolfer is UTG+1 with Q:spade:, Q:diamond:. SB posts a blind of $1.
UTG folds, scgolfer raises to $9, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 calls $9, CO folds, Button folds, SB (poster) folds, BB calls $7.

Flop: ($28) 5:diamond:, 2:diamond:, T:spade: (3 players)
BB checks, scgolfer bets $25, MP3 folds, BB raises to $100, scgolfer calls $83.80 (All-In), BB calls $8.80.

Turn: ($245.60) T:club: (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($245.60) 7:spade: (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $245.60

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed)

MP1 ($164.25)
MP2 ($262.7)
scgolfer ($92)
CO ($110.9)
Button ($84)
SB ($106.05)
BB ($101.6)
UTG ($254.65)
UTG+1 ($91.4)
UTG+2 ($549.42)

Preflop: scgolfer is MP3 with Q:diamond:, Q:spade:. SB posts a blind of $1. UTG posts a blind of $2.
UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 calls $2, scgolfer raises to $8, CO folds, Button calls $8, SB (poster) folds, UTG (poster) folds, MP2 calls $6.

Flop: ($27) 7:spade:, 8:diamond:, J:spade: (4 players)
MP2 checks, scgolfer bets $35, Button folds, MP2 raises to $70, scgolfer calls $49 (All-In), MP2 calls $14.

Turn: ($195) 5:club: (3 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($195) 2:club: (3 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $195

I don't think that there is any way you don't push with those hands. You didn't get reraised preflop, so an overpair to your queens is unlikely. You will definately run into the occasional set or crappy player that caught 2 pair, but more often than not, I think you are up against top pair in this situation.

The second hand smells of pocket jacks but it could easily be ace jack and you shouldn't be laying down to a minimum reraise with the over pair unless you've got a good read. If you fold to the raise there, the table might pick up on that and start testing you in every pot you raise. And there's a very good chance Queens are dominant.

The first hand however has got me stumped. Any one?

-'rilla

Quote:

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Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

The first hand however has got me stumped. Any one?

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I'm guessing AT or some other T for BB.

wow...i can't see how any of them can call a 9BB raise with the hands that beat you. the only ones worthy of calling are KK and AA, and they should reraise you preflop anyways. hmmmm, if this was a good player my guess would be they had ATs.

second hand looks like they hit trip jacks.

anywho, i'm not so sure i would make pot sized bets...but i'm more conservative...i would bet about half the pot, so they are getting 3:1 odds, which is still poor enough that flush drawers are not getting proper odds, that and if you get reraised all in you don't lose as much.

are you using pokertracker? that might help in the future to know what hands these players reraising you all in with cuz you'll know what kind of cards they play in general.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Humphrind

Quote:

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Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

The first hand however has got me stumped. Any one?

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I'm guessing AT or some other T for BB.

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AT makes sense, it just seems a bit odd that they are pushing *that* hard. But if golfer follows up every PFR with a heafty flop bet then I can see it. But I dont think golfer follows every 9 dollar PFR with a 25 dollar bet so the guy shouldn't have been reading a hand like AKs or AQs.

-'rilla

Quote:

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Originally Posted by hypermagachi

anywho, i'm not so sure i would make pot sized bets...but i'm more conservative...i would bet about half the pot, so they are getting 3:1 odds, which is still poor enough that flush drawers are not getting proper odds, that and if you get reraised all in you don't lose as much.

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3:1 pot odds for a flush draw are fine becuase you're almost guarenteed at least small implied odds. Don't be suprised if players chase everytime at that price. Also, if you're betting that small you arn't protecting Queens. NL is about protecting the big hands becuase they do get outdrawn with some frequency. Also, pot sized bets sometimes look like bluffs to the new school WPT/WSOP taught players. Chances are rare he's running into one at the 100 tables but you'll get calls very frequently making it a largely profitable bet in that spot.

-'rilla

I lost both hands to hands you guys havent guessed (22 on 1st & 910 on 2nd both bad calls :x ) but the main question is when do lay down relatively big over pairs into a raised pot. I run into these a lot. QQ and JJ when flops are all unders I throw out a large bet and either get called or all in'd. I have PT and have the game time table running all the time, so I have an idea on the player, but you really dont have time to look up the exact info on any player to be able to put them on an exact hand. So when do you lay these big hands down when all unders are onb the board? There is a matter of protecting your over pair and giving wrong odds to draw but also not losing too much when practically drawing dead when they hit. Tough questions!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by scgolfer

22 on 1st & 910 on 2nd both bad calls

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:shock:

-'rilla

i don't see how the hell either of them can call a 9BB bet with 22 and T9

BB is actaully $2 in $100 NL

I had a similar situation yesterday and the opposite result. I tend to fold to the reraise on the F in these situations, very few people would bluff into strength.

99 preflop called in mid position. Several see flop. No raises, but I have Tight-Aggressive image (if they were paying attention).

Flop is 7d 4d 2c. I bet the pot, one person reraises pot (all-in) and another calls. I figured somebody had to have a higher overpair or a set. So I fold and give away a third of my stack.

They turn over Td3d and A7o.

So they don't always have you beat when they come over the top on the Flop. But I still feel that folding is the correct decision when you're not pot committed.

These preflop calls really aren't that bad by the other players (at least if it was T9s), as it seems like they correctly assumed that they have big time implied odds, possibly because they know you have a high pocket pair from your 4.5xBB and 4xBB bets. You aren't really giving them bad enough pot odds to counter the implied odds they have, but you're also betting enough for them to put you on a big pocket pair, as I'm guessing that that isn't your standard bet when you have a hand like AQ, which wouldn't give them near the implied odds that they otherwise have.

With implied odd type hands (low pocket pairs and suited connectors), the ideal situation is exactly what's in these hand histories, which is the opposing player has a big pocket pair and you hit the flop hard, and they don't see it coming when you take their stack.

Personally, I call in both of these situations with 22 and T9s in the big blind in a ring game. Although I think its more profitable in the game I play in than in this one, as this one has stack sizes of 50 BBs and mine has 100 BBs, and you're really hoping to hit and take their stack in these types of situations, so the bigger stack size compared the blinds helps. In a tournament, with big blinds, its a different story, but in NL ring games, implied odd hands can really make you a lot of money in the long run. Its really probably where I make the most of my ring game money, as when you're playing against tight players you aren't going to win the real big pots unless you have a monster (preferably a hidden monster like these) against another big hand. Although it helps that I develop a loose aggressive image, stealing a lot of small pots to set up big wins when I have a hand, too. :-)

As for what you can do to avoid being trapped in these situations, that's tougher. I'd probably keep my preflop bets consistent to start with and be a bit more cautious post flop. Some people make extremely big preflop bets to protect themselves, which is something you could consider as well, but its really not my style as it has to limit the amount of money you make when you win (as it would greatly limit the number of callers you get, and probably often just pick up the blinds), even though it'll almost certainly increase your ratio of wins to losses. But one thing is for sure, adding an extra BB to your bet probably isn't worth tipping everyone off to what you're holding. Bet what you usually do or make a really big bet (6xBB or more). Again this is very different than in tournaments with bigger blinds, where that 1 BB can make a much bigger difference in whether someone with a hand like that will call or fold.

As for calling their big raises, like in the first hand, you really have to know the player, at least a little bit. Would they make this move with AT? Would they with a flush draw? Many players wouldn't do either, and if that's the case with these players, you need to get out. Also you need to note after a hand like this that the player didn't slowplay his set, and shoved in immediately so you can watch out for that later on. On the second hand you're nearly pot commited because you seemed to overbet the flop. As is, you probably couldn't get away from calling the raise very often, but if you bet less it would've been much more likely, especially with that minraise that looks like slowplaying (another thing that should be added to notes). It wouldn't make much sense for him to minraise with AJ or a flush draw, with such a big bet being made in comparison to stack sizes already. Both of those hands would likely shove all in if they were to raise.

I can't really think of much else that'd help to avoid being trapped like this, but hopefully this post can help you a bit. I'd possibly consider switching to a table / site that has bigger buyins as compared to blinds as well, as you don't have a whole lot of wiggle room here. If you're feeling pot commited on these raises, that could make a big difference, making these tough laydowns easier.

Haha, I missread scgolfers post on the hands. I thought it was 10 9 for the first and deuces for the second which had me all screwed up (making for very bad flop play by both of them). Yah, every one just be like mike.

-'rilla

Hand 1: You need to be against JJ/AT to be ahead, and he shouldn't be pushing that hard with AT (and shouldn't have called pre-flop with AT if he had a clue). I think I might find a fold here and tell myself it's KK/AA or a set. It's a tough fold though.

Hand 2: You hope it's AJ here (rather than T9s, JJ/KK/AA), but you're not risking as much by calling as in Hand 1....I think I'd make a crying call here.

Re: Michael's post on calling pre-flop raises with suited conns and baby pairs:

This is probably not unreasonable with 100BB stacks, because of the implied odds. Implied odds rule with tall stacks. However, at Party Poker with the 50BB stack being the norm I really think any raise that's near 10% of your stack has to be a muck with those implied odds hands. If you raise $9 with a $100 stack and get called by suited junk/baby pairs it is +EV for you even though you occassionally take a big burn. My opinion.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by DrNoChance

This is probably not unreasonable with 100BB stacks, because of the implied odds. Implied odds rule with tall stacks. However, at Party Poker with the 50BB stack being the norm I really think any raise that's near 10% of your stack has to be a muck with those implied odds hands. If you raise $9 with a $100 stack and get called by suited junk/baby pairs it is +EV for you even though you occassionally take a big burn. My opinion.

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Yeah, that's what I was thinking. Its probably not that good of a call there with only 50 BB stacks, but they aren't as horrible as they may first appear. But, I still support the second call. In the big blind, only $6 more to call with 22, which is much easier to flop a monster with than suited connectors.