How would you have played this?

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10-07-2004, 06:12 PM
Darby

How would you have played this?

10+1 SnG on Party Poker... 4 players left, Leader has a huge advantage on the table, with me in second... Blinds are up to 100-200. 2 players ahead of me fold, I have 7/7 and I raise into the chip leader. He reraises me all in... I call. He has 10/5 of diamonds and hits a 10 to take me out.

How would you have done this, I could have outlasted at least one other guy to make it into the money, but the guy with the chip leader wasnt that good, and i thought i could come back to maybe beat him...

How would you play this hand?
10-07-2004, 06:21 PM
call_me_CHEF

Some chip stack amounts would help with an answer. If you were in good shape and someone was close to getting taken out, 77 is a marginal hand to risk being bubbled out with. I tend to limp or fold this pretty often around the bubble. just my $0.02.

-Chef
10-07-2004, 06:24 PM
gutshot

I agree. On the bubble, I don't want to push my stack on a coinflip. Granted he had only one over on you, but I'm saving my gambles until I'm guaranteed a cash at least. Again, stack sizes may make your move a bit more relevant, but I would pick on the smaller stacks as opposed to pushing my stack up against the chip leaders cards.
10-07-2004, 08:47 PM
koolmoe

Re: How would you have played this?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Darby

10+1 SnG on Party Poker... 4 players left, Leader has a huge advantage on the table, with me in second... Blinds are up to 100-200. 2 players ahead of me fold, I have 7/7 and I raise into the chip leader. He reraises me all in... I call. He has 10/5 of diamonds and hits a 10 to take me out.

How would you have done this, I could have outlasted at least one other guy to make it into the money, but the guy with the chip leader wasnt that good, and i thought i could come back to maybe beat him...

How would you play this hand?

Decide whether you will call an all-in before you raise. If you will, push instead of raising. If you won't, fold to the reraise.

Prefer pushing when your stack is small.
10-07-2004, 11:17 PM
Darby

I am not positive, but before the hand started it was like

Leader: 6000
Me: 1200
3rd:600
4th: 400

The leader was to my left, and had raised me almost everytime I was in the hand, so I didnt respect his raise, but I had a good hand... I could have finished in the money, but if I double up on him, I have a realistic shot to win...

Oh well, I wanted to take a risk.
10-07-2004, 11:22 PM
AllinLife

I think it's even debatable to fold up to JJ in this situation.

because 3/4th stacks are about to go out in less than 5 hands
10-07-2004, 11:36 PM
Darby

See, as soon as I lost, I was pissed. I really thought he was just bullying me and I had the best hand.
10-07-2004, 11:54 PM
johnnyawe

Re: How would you have played this?

Quote:

Originally Posted by koolmoe

Decide whether you will call an all-in before you raise. If you will, push instead of raising. If you won't, fold to the reraise.

Prefer pushing when your stack is small.

<nods head>
10-08-2004, 12:13 AM
gutshot

Now seeing stack sizes it's a tough call. Either you make the call and take your medicine if you lose or ride comfortably into the money if you win.

If you lay it down, pray that one of the others busts out on blinds before you do.
10-08-2004, 11:37 AM
Krapp

Do not call the raise. The most likely scenario is your a coin-flip of losing all your chips or you become chipleader. Since your already 2nd, being chipleader is not much more of an advantage vs busting-out of the tournament with a medicore hand. Even if you had a 80% advantage (e.g. QQ, JJ, preflop), you dont want to risk all your chips unless its with a small stack.

These type of hands (wtih 4ppl left) are good for limping (folding is also a good choice) and maybe for a button or SB steal. The mindset should be to wait out the shortstack on the bubble or as a lesser alternative, to play against the shortstack since you have the extra benefit placing in the money if you win. You possibly could risk all your chips with AA, however I think its debatable w/ KK in this situation.

Another comment, I normally dont worry about winning, just placing. I found very often that once you get into the final 3 your odds of winning is still good even if your 1/3 of the chip leader. One double-up would put you on even ground with the chipleader. If you play to "win" you might tend to take early risks with your chips and quite often will bust-out more than you need to.
10-08-2004, 11:42 AM
Les_Worm

How big was your raise? Depending on how much you raised him you may have to call the reraise, even with a lesser hand.
10-08-2004, 02:23 PM
koolmoe

Quote:

Originally Posted by AllinLife

I think it's even debatable to fold up to JJ in this situation.

because 3/4th stacks are about to go out in less than 5 hands

Or they're about to double up, putting you about even and wishing for a hand as good as 77 to push with.

IMO, folding up to JJ is weak thinking unless the chip leader is a verified rock. There are a lot of hands that a good player would use to challenge a completed SB or minraise.

The case for pushing into the BB (prior to the reraise):
The BB has a random hand, and 77 will dominate about 70% of all possible hands (any pair less than 7 or any two non-paired hole cards where at least one card is 7 or lower). About one fourth of the hands (about 16% of all hands) that 77 dominates will be two cards behind.

77 will be a slight favorite (say 53:47) to fair percentage (27%) of hands (two overcards). Consider that AKs is behind 77 preflop (48:52).

Only 3.4% of all possible hands will dominate 77.

That said, 77 is a vulnerable hand that could use folding equity, and it is difficult to play post flop unless it completes a set. By raising all-in preflop, you get folding equity and avoid having to play it when it misses. Although in general situations (ring game, early in a tourney) you would prefer not to push all in since you won't get called unless you are significantly behind or only slightly ahead, it is reasonable to expect calls from hands you are significantly ahead of in this situation. Getting a fold and T$300 would be a great result, too.

Bottom line, when you're playing 4 handed with only 6xBB, 77 is a great hand.
10-08-2004, 03:43 PM
Krapp

Quote:

Originally Posted by koolmoe

IMO, folding up to JJ is weak thinking unless the chip leader is a verified rock. There are a lot of hands that a good player would use to challenge a completed SB or minraise.

Sorry koolmoe but this is just bad advise in a SnG game and in this current situation. The strength of your preflop cards need to be evaulated against the probability of you placing in money. In the current situation, we are 2nd in chipcount and 2 ppl are on the bubble or close. Given that 1 busts-out you are in the money. With one at 400 and the other at 600, there is an overwhelming chance you will place in money just by folding your blinds (I would suggest 75%+). There is also a very good chance that the 400 or 600 stack will bust out vs doubling up. We could talk through the situation but it should make sense that the short stacks in this situation are much more likely to bust (at least 1 of them) vs doubling-up.

So the general concept is why does one want to risk all there chips on a coin flip if they have a very good chance of placing in the money by keeping status quo? Agruably, if you did make the call and doubled-up and still was in 2nd place chip lead, where does that leave you? How much more likely are you to place ITM or first with 2400 vs 1200 chips and the leader has 3800 vs 6000 chips. I would agrue you ITM% is probably about 90%+ now, but is it worth the 50% coin flip of busting out?
10-11-2004, 09:55 AM
koolmoe

Quote:

Originally Posted by Krapp

Sorry koolmoe but this is just bad advise in a SnG game and in this current situation. The strength of your preflop cards need to be evaulated against the probability of you placing in money. In the current situation, we are 2nd in chipcount and 2 ppl are on the bubble or close. Given that 1 busts-out you are in the money. With one at 400 and the other at 600, there is an overwhelming chance you will place in money just by folding your blinds (I would suggest 75%+).

After the OP raised into the chip leader, his chances drop considerably if he folds to the reraise. Assuming it was a min-raise, folding would leave the OP with 800 chips. This essentially drops his chances of winning the tournament to a very small number (8:1 chip underdog), and the risk of finishing out of the money increases as well. Notice that if either small stack doubles up (roughly 75% chance of this happening assuming chip leader puts them all in), they move into 2nd in chips ahead of the OP. If both double up against the chip leader (roughly 25% chance), the OP becomes the small stack.

Folding here would definitely decrease $ variance since it would reduce your risk of immediately busting out, but it vastly reduces your chances of winning 5x your buyin.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Krapp

So the general concept is why does one want to risk all there chips on a coin flip if they have a very good chance of placing in the money by keeping status quo?

First, why is it necessarily a coin flip? There are lots of hands BB could make this play with, and many of them will only have three outs against you.

Second, the reason you risk it is to increase your chances of placing first. I agree that calling the all-in is not to be preferred, but it is hard to argue against pushing in that scenario.

Finally, doubling up against the chip leader would drastically improve OP's chances to win the tournament. Based on chips, OP would go from a 5:1 underdog to the chip leader to a 2:1 underdog. The improvement in his chances to win coupled with the $ value of placing first make it a play worth making (in terms of $EV) IMO.

This is probably why I have a lot of 4th place finishes but a higher percentage of 1sts and 2nds vs. 3rd place finishes. I typically play to win and try to use the bubble fear to my advantage.
10-11-2004, 01:15 PM
Krapp

Quote:

Originally Posted by koolmoe

After the OP raised into the chip leader, his chances drop considerably if he folds to the reraise.

I do agree that the fold is debatable if your left with 800 chips. The correct move would be to go all-in or fold instead of min re-raise (with limping a remote option). I would prefer to fold, being 2nd in chips and 2 on the bubble.

Quote:

Originally Posted by koolmoe

First, why is it necessarily a coin flip? There are lots of hands BB could make this play with, and many of them will only have three outs against you.

We need to assume a reasonable hand to commit all our chips. We see a raise and your holding a med pocket pair. Chances are opp has 2-overcards. The other scenarios are possible (e.g. A5s, 55, QQ, etc) but the decision should be made on most likely hand which is 2-overcards

Quote:

Originally Posted by koolmoe

Second, the reason you risk it is to increase your chances of placing first. I agree that calling the all-in is not to be preferred, but it is hard to argue against pushing in that scenario.

If you win, I would agrue you improved chance to place in first is marginal. Your still second in chips. Getting into the top 4 is fine, but if you "play to win" mentality places 5 or worse, then I believe its doing more harm than good.

Quote:

Originally Posted by koolmoe

Finally, doubling up against the chip leader would drastically improve OP's chances to win the tournament. Based on chips, OP would go from a 5:1 underdog to the chip leader to a 2:1 underdog. The improvement in his chances to win coupled with the $ value of placing first make it a play worth making (in terms of $EV) IMO.

Thats assuming you cant increase your chipcount after you fold. 5:1 to 2:1 is significant, but there is game still left to played where you can increase your chipstack w/o trying the all-in here. Again why risk 50/50 bust-out where you are fairly good in placing ITM. One other note: 5:1 can be 1-double up or 1-2 blind steals from being even.

Quote:

Originally Posted by koolmoe

This is probably why I have a lot of 4th place finishes but a higher percentage of 1sts and 2nds vs. 3rd place finishes. I typically play to win and try to use the bubble fear to my advantage.

I tend to be fairly aggressive with 4 total. I am either stealing blinds or shortstacked. I would slow down if I am middle stacked and someone is on the bubble. However I might either still challenge the other middlestack or smallstack to stay close to chip leader. I will do everything possible to encourage the shortstack to bust-out and avoid myself from being shortstacked.
10-11-2004, 02:33 PM
koolmoe

Quote:

Originally Posted by Krapp

Quote:

Originally Posted by koolmoe

First, why is it necessarily a coin flip? There are lots of hands BB could make this play with, and many of them will only have three outs against you.

We need to assume a reasonable hand to commit all our chips. We see a raise and your holding a med pocket pair. Chances are opp has 2-overcards. The other scenarios are possible (e.g. A5s, 55, QQ, etc) but the decision should be made on most likely hand which is 2-overcards

One rigorous way to do it (off line, obviously) would be to consider the range of hands that the BB would make this play with and then compute your chances based on those numbers. There are 336 unpaired hands that consist of two overcards, but 816 unpaired hands that contain at least one undercard. You'd need to have some read on your opponent to know what hands he is capable of doing this with (I would argue that any A and any K are definite), but I'd estimate that you end up as maybe a 65:35 favorite.

Notice that the BB made this move with T5, which is not uncommon for an aggressive player with a huge chip lead. A smart player knows that you are afraid of finishing out of the money and will play on that fear to steal your chips.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Krapp

Quote:

Originally Posted by koolmoe

Second, the reason you risk it is to increase your chances of placing first. I agree that calling the all-in is not to be preferred, but it is hard to argue against pushing in that scenario.

If you win, I would agrue you improved chance to place in first is marginal. Your still second in chips. Getting into the top 4 is fine, but if you "play to win" mentality places 5 or worse, then I believe its doing more harm than good.

If you fold, you are an 8:1 underdog to the chipleader. Even after doubling up twice through the chip leader, you'd be trailing in chips (3600:3200). One double up at 4800:2400 makes you the 2:1 chip leader. There is no way that the increase in your chances to win is marginal.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Krapp

Quote:

Originally Posted by koolmoe

Finally, doubling up against the chip leader would drastically improve OP's chances to win the tournament. Based on chips, OP would go from a 5:1 underdog to the chip leader to a 2:1 underdog. The improvement in his chances to win coupled with the $ value of placing first make it a play worth making (in terms of $EV) IMO.

Thats assuming you cant increase your chipcount after you fold. 5:1 to 2:1 is significant, but there is game still left to played where you can increase your chipstack w/o trying the all-in here. Again why risk 50/50 bust-out where you are fairly good in placing ITM. One other note: 5:1 can be 1-double up or 1-2 blind steals from being even.

OP started as a 5:1 underdog before the hand but would be an 8:1 underdog after folding, which is a long way from being even. I've already outlined why I don't believe it to be a 50-50 proposition.

As far as increasing your chip count, odds are good you'll be flipping a coin to do that. Will BB fold to 800 when he wouldn't fold to 400?

Folding is definitely a viable option, but I'm not sure that it is the most +$EV one. I do agree that it will decrease your variance (from the ROI point-of-view). However, if you are interested in minimizing variance, you fold this hand preflop.
10-11-2004, 03:09 PM
Krapp

Quote:

Originally Posted by koolmoe

OP started as a 5:1 underdog before the hand but would be an 8:1 underdog after folding, which is a long way from being even. I've already outlined why I don't believe it to be a 50-50 proposition.

I only make this agrument if you didnt do the min-raise previously. Its a tougher situation to fold if your min-raise was re-raised b/c of what you just outlined. The EV (in my opinion) is 50/50 to push all-in after you got re-raised. I would be very stressed picking 7/7 as my all-in or bust hand, especially where I played decent enough to make 2nd chiplead in a 4-handed game.