Originally Posted by Iconoclastic
Here's more details on the hand. And what I actually did.
I hadn't sat at the table long and didn't have great notes on each player. The player that called my 5000 chip raise did not act like a maniac in the hands I saw. So I put him at tight.
I thought about the odds. At a 50-100 table against a tight player, the chances of a player CALLING but not raising me all in with a Q in their hand was pretty damn good. I was ALMOST SURE OF IT. I felt like there was a 95% chance he had a Q.
So when the turn came Q. I decided then to fold to an all in raise.
He raised 2000, I folded. I had to bet 2000 to win a 20000 pot, and I felt that there was a greater than 90% chance he had a Q.
I was not pot committed because I felt there was such a tiny chance that I could win the pot, and 10% of the pot is still a pretty large amount, especially considering it's a ring game and not a tourney so losing all ur chips doesnt hurt too bad.
Unfortunately, it turns out he had A 5 off (4 Q 2 Q). I had no idea he would be loose enough to make a HUGE mistake and call a gutshot with 1 overcard for almost all-in.
I'm not sure if I made a mistake by overestimating the chance he had of a Q or if I made the long-term right choice by trusting my instincts, which turned out to be wrong in this case.
I didnt push All-in at the turn because I was playing at a maniac table with 5 other callers at the flop. I felt that the chances of someone with two pair or better at the flop was significant enough that I should bet less and indeed fold to an All-in reraise.