What is The Long Run Exactly?
My question has a couple of pieces, and yes it's born of frustration. I've been losing steadily. I play tight and aggressive at loose, passive tables, strictly NL so that I can protect my good hands, generally with pot-size bets.
It doesn't work. I keep hearing about how I should stick with it -- it works over the long run. What is that exactly? I had thought if your bankroll was 500 big bets you could endure even the worst swings. Well, that's not the case. I swing from $300 to $9
Second part of the question: what's most important? table selection? calculating the odds? reading the other hands? guts?
My theory is that different things are most important at different moments. But I would more frequently give weight to your read on other people's hands.
-your table selection wisdom means precisely dick if you can't punish the loose players who chase or call holding the second best hand.
-your calculation of the pot odds you need are a waste of time unless you're right about what you're up against
-your courageous big bets, on top pair and ace kicker will kill you if you don't realize the other guy hit 2 pair
So the last part of the question is: how do you read other people's hands?
Addendum - can online poker be beat?
So, when you're sitting there, what DO you know?
The reason I ask is that you need to know
-whether the table has the right attitude for your play
-what starting hands are good, what to do when the flop hits you or misses you
-how to bet such that other guys don't have the pot odds to draw on you
-whether they will draw on you anyway
-in what situations each of these players raises, calls, whatever
And you have to know this online, where
-you cannot see anyone
-the players change every couple of minutes
-for all you know this player only has $25 of their $5,000 bankroll in play
I want to hear from some people. Do you really sit there folding >80% preflop, and getting out if you don't get two pair or better? Patience is one thing, but watching these people take pot after pot with K4 off, and getting a big bet per hour for your trouble?
Do you really?
Re: What is The Long Run Exactly?
Quote:
Originally Posted by LeFou
It doesn't work. I keep hearing about how I should stick with it -- it works over the long run. What is that exactly? I had thought if your bankroll was 500 big bets you could endure even the worst swings. Well, that's not the case. I swing from $300 to $9
When you are playing ring games, something common to hear is, "Just think of it all as 1 big session. You'll be up, you'll be down, but play the numbers and in the end, it'll even out." What this means is that there are a lot of situations where you cannot look at the short term.
Imagine calculating EVs. You have a 35 to 1 shot to win. But you will win 50 to 1 on your investment. This is a positive EV. If you play this hand 35 times, you will win once. But on the 50 to 1 investment, this means that the 1 time you do win, it will more than make up for the 34 times you lost. Though you shouldn't expect to run into this situation 35 times at 1 sit down, you will see it again eventually. You should see it more times, in other sessions, and other games. Look at it as 1 big session. You may not be up today, but it will all even out cause you are playing your best.
That's what they mean by "the long run" - life.
Quote:
Originally Posted by LeFou
Second part of the question: what's most important? table selection? calculating the odds? reading the other hands? guts?
My theory is that different things are most important at different moments. But I would more frequently give weight to your read on other people's hands.
-your table selection wisdom means precisely dick if you can't punish the loose players who chase or call holding the second best hand.
I think your talking about table position, not selection. Position will put you in the spot to stick it to all these people. Sit to the left of big bettors and you will never have to spend too much.
Imagine I call the big blind, then the person after me bets big. I will fold and I have just waisted that money. Now imagine if the person were sitting before you, he'd bet, and you chould fold without putting a penny in.
In the opposite manner, you will want to sit to the right of chasers, so you can bet big before they act and they will fold to you.
Another situation: 1 big bettor, a chaser calls, you raise after and the chaser says, "Well, I've alredy put in this much, I'll put in more" Now imagine that he is after you, he sees a raise, and a re-raise and says, "I want to save this money"
Quote:
Originally Posted by LeFou
-your calculation of the pot odds you need are a waste of time unless you're right about what you're up against
Read the flop. You can usually tell what you're up against. If you are chasing toward the nuts, and you have good pot odds (positive EV), CHASE YOUR ASS OFF! If there is 2 pair on the board, and you are justifying calling to chase your flush. Don't. Lay it down. You probably playing against a full house and drawing dead.
Quote:
Originally Posted by LeFou
-your courageous big bets, on top pair and ace kicker will kill you if you don't realize the other guy hit 2 pair
Are you betting huge with top pair, top kicker? Are you re-re-raising when people re-raise you? You always have to consider what is out there, and remember TPTK will never be the nuts.
Quote:
Originally Posted by LeFou
So the last part of the question is: how do you read other people's hands?
Again, it's very tough. Look at everything you know.
How did he bet in other hands?
How did he bet pre-flop? Did he call the big blind? Did he raise? How much?
Did he bet strong when 1 particular card came down? (i.e. Ace on the turn)
Did he slow his betting post flop and then start betting big again at the river? That signifies slow-play.
Ask yourself all these questions and hopefully you will be able to make educated guesses.
Re: What is The Long Run Exactly?
Quote:
Originally Posted by LeFou
It doesn't work. I keep hearing about how I should stick with it -- it works over the long run. What is that exactly? I had thought if your bankroll was 500 big bets you could endure even the worst swings. Well, that's not the case. I swing from $300 to $9
I've had over -$200 swings at $25. However, I play looser than Ttanaka, so even if my win rate was higher (big if), my variance is certainly higher.
Quote:
Originally Posted by LeFou
Second part of the question: what's most important? table selection? calculating the odds? reading the other hands? guts?
Table selection, knowing the important odds, reading players.
Quote:
Originally Posted by LeFou
So the last part of the question is: how do you read other people's hands?
You don't. Make a guess on a range of hands and play the player.
Oh, and onto your question of what the long run is. Think 25,000 or so hands.
Re: Addendum - can online poker be beat?
Quote:
Originally Posted by LeFou
So, when you're sitting there, what DO you know?
The reason I ask is that you need to know
-whether the table has the right attitude for your play
-what starting hands are good, what to do when the flop hits you or misses you
-how to bet such that other guys don't have the pot odds to draw on you
-whether they will draw on you anyway
-in what situations each of these players raises, calls, whatever
And you have to know this online, where
-you cannot see anyone
-the players change every couple of minutes
-for all you know this player only has $25 of their $5,000 bankroll in play
Sounds like you may need more help than I can offer in 1 post. So instead of giving you a fish to feed you for the day, I'm going to teach you to fish.
Check these out.
http://www.flopturnriver.com/poker-books.html
http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...pic.php?t=1273
This will get you started on analyzing your game. You can get help about recognizing your hands, analyzing the flop, reading other players, etc.
You are always welcome to post questions here about specific and I'm sure you can get just about any question answered. But for overall help like you are looking for, I'd say get back to basics and start to read.
Quote:
Originally Posted by LeFou
I want to hear from some people. Do you really sit there folding >80% preflop, and getting out if you don't get two pair or better? Patience is one thing, but watching these people take pot after pot with K4 off, and getting a big bet per hour for your trouble?
Do you really?
No, not folding 80% = playing 20%. I think the average person here sees the flop with about 30% - 35% of their starting hands.
You play the cards and the percentages fall into place. I can remember seeing my "flops seen" % as low as 19% once. I've also seen it as high as 52%.
Here's how this works. I play 1 out of every 3 hands. I win the pot with 1 out of every 12 hands. I lose $.50 every time I play and lose which is 3 out of 12 hands, or $1.50. The 1 time I win in those 12 hands I win about $3.00.
Every 12 hands played I spend $.50 and make $3.00. This converts to an overall winning strategy where I make $1.50 / 12 hands.
This is all just an example, but you get the picture. We're not trying to win the lottery. You don't get paid extra for hitting a royal flush. But you can play consistently, and don't get impatient. You can be profitable.
