Here's a really sticky spot 3 way all in

4 handed 6max game 25nl

Hero is in CO 100bb deep

SB is Whale 288bb deep
VPIP - 66
PFR - 45
AGG - 1.5
3BET - 8.7

BB is Loose-Passive (Mouse in HEM2) 100bb deep
VPIP - 31
PFR - 11
AGG - 1.6
3BET - 2.9

CO (Hero) is delt Ks 8s and opens for 3bb
BTN folds
SB calls
BB calls

Pot is 9bb

Flop comes Kd 8d Qs

I flop bottom and top pair on this draw heavy board.

SB X's
BB X's
Hero bets 7bb
SB C's
BB C's

Pot is 30bb

Turn is As opening up a nut flush draw, but better 2 pairs and completes an OESD for my villains.

SB X's
BB X's
Hero bets 15bb
SB raises 46bb
BB shoves all in for 90bb

Pot is 164bb, 77bb to call

What does hero do here? I realize both of them probably have better hands, on the other hand I'm drawing for a nut flush and a full house.





*SPoiler*
Hero shoves all in for 90.3bb
SB calls remaining 54.3bb

River 8c

SB shows Jd 10d

BB shows Ah Qh

Hero shows Ks 8s for 8's full of Kings and wins 300.5bb pot after rake.

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Pot is 164bb, 77bb to call

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We can reasonably expect another 44bb to go in, and we're drawing on the nuts with spades, while K's and 8s are obviously huge enough for us to consider nut cards too. So it's a 77bb call into effectively a 208bb pot. We're getting just under 3:1, meaning we need around 28% equity.

With 13 outs from 46 cards, we have around 28% equity.

Man this is super, super close.

When we're raised by the loose passive guy, I'm convinced that he has aces up at the very least. He's passive and is putting 90bb in at the turn. He has better than us, always. He's never bluffing here. So our showdown value against him on the turn is zero.

The aggro donk, I'm not folding this against him for 100bb on the turn. I'd consider our 2pr to have enough showdown value that the draws are a bonus for when he has better than us.

I think this is really close in terms of EV, and since we have 2pr with nut flush draw, it's practically impossible to fold this. This would be really close in PLO too, although I'd likely tank fold this spot in PLO due to the risk of KK and other spade draws blocking.

I think my calculations on what equity we need to make the call is incorrect.

We have 28.2% equity, that much I'm happy with. Well, maybe take the 0.2 away for the times we have a losing full house.

All I can say for sure is I'm not folding this for shit.

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

I think my calculations on what equity we need to make the call is incorrect.

We have 28.2% equity, that much I'm happy with. Well, maybe take the 0.2 away for the times we have a losing full house.

All I can say for sure is I'm not folding this for shit.

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I'm not really sure how HEM2 calculates EV in part because I can't even really calculate EV (I know it's in my mass of poker books somewhere, probably Sklansky Theory and Practice) but net won in HEM2 for the hand was $49.08 and the EV difference was -$51.21 so I gather from that it was just a touch, to the tune of $1.13 negative EV.

HU this is a fold 3 way all in because we know that other guy is calling, i don't think it's a massive mistake to call here even if we're stacking off if we brick river.

HU against the passive guy, yeah I could potentially find a fold (still not easy to actually click fold even when we know it's probably right).

HU against the whale, not a chance am I folding this.

EV calculations, I'm really not very good at in terms of doing things properly, I'm lazy and don't like hard work. I tend to estimate, and I'm fortunate that I'm naturally gifted at maths so I generally make good enough estimates.

My 28.2% equity that we have comes from the fact we have 13 outs from 46 cards... 13/46 is 0.282... this assume we always win when we improve, and never win when we don't, which I'm mostly comfortable with. Very occasionally we'll hit a king vs AK, I can see the passive guy calling AKo pre with his 3bet stat. But that's so rare it's practically negligible.

At the table I'd likely estimate that if I'm behind(which is almost certainly), I need between 25-30%, and my equity is within that range, at which point I've tanked enough and I make the call.

in terms of pot odds. Yeah, with 13 outs you have the right price to call.

in terms of playing the hand. You need to check that turn behind.

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in terms of playing the hand. You need to check that turn behind.

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I did think this but we have 2pr + flush draw with a clown in the hand, I'm finding it very difficult to check this turn back.

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

I did think this but we have 2pr + flush draw with a clown in the hand, I'm finding it very difficult to check this turn back.

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How did you know Boog was playing ?

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

I did think this but we have 2pr + flush draw with a clown in the hand.

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To me, that's why you check it back. Our opps gave us the opp to get to the river, which we want. Why bet and give the clown an opportunity to screw that up? I get if you are heads up and think you are way ahead that you should valuetown here - but 3 way, that turn is just ugly so I check.

I think you're right. I think this being 3way means we might not have the required equity to value bet here. It's just while the turn is ugly, a lot of nfd's just made top pair, while we just picked up a huge amount of suckout equity for when we're in trouble. My natural instict is to feel we're ahead of their calling ranges here, but as I analyse the hand I feel like we need to know both are calling a turn bet before we can make any money, which is possibly a little too optimistic. It's certainly more complicated than if we're HU, and that means maybe we are just better off taking a free river and reassessing river. It's not like turn is oozing in value, while river could be. So yeah, I think you're right. I just wish I could recognise this at the table, because I really don't think I check this back in the heat of the moment.