[10NL] KQs vs reg. Street by street.

OK, I wanna do this hand street by street because I think it will be interesting to get thoughts as the hand plays out. Making a note that it is from the 24/12/15 so I can find it easily if I need to. Hopefully we can get some good discussion going.

Villain is a reg who I have a lot of experience with. I have 5,800 hands on villain, the hands have come at 10, 25 and 50NL.

He is a 30/26 w/ a 16% 3bet. Villain opens his BU 52% and folds his BU to 3bets 74% of the time (which is a lot for him). Villain 4bets 7% of the time and I haven't seen him get out of line by 4betting on the BU (only seen him show down JJ or AKo.) Villain is aggressive, capable of making good plays, capable of making good folds, and capable of pure spazz.

I think that should be enough information for our pre-flop decision. If you need/want any more, let me know.

PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: $10.35
SB: $10.81
Hero (BB): $11.42
CO: $10.20

SB posts SB $0.05, Hero posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has Q:spade: K:spade:

fold, BTN raises to $0.22, fold, Hero ???

Thoughts on what Hero should do?

I am 3betting. If we are going to play this oop then take the initiative. I am fine re-stealing and moving on. We have blockers to a lot of his 4bet range.

I think 3betting is better than calling, but there's a strong argument for flatting when KQs flops so well against a wide button range and villain folds too much pre. I think 3betting pre is good though because:

- we get instant folds more than we need, which makes 3betting ATC profitable in theory if he's folding 74% against us (we should therefore be weighted towards bluffs until he adjusts).

- if he's folding less than 74% against us because he's a reg that's played a ton of hands against us and is "capable of pure spaz", I like to have wide value range against this guy (and KQs flops so well).

- winning 370bb/100 with KQs every time he folds is a good winrate (and presumably we don't lose money post flop overall every time he calls)

- KQs is doing well enough against his continuing range of 13% i.e. 52%*(100%-74%)

My decision to 3b or not here is more based on how he perceives us, just as much as how we perceive him. If we've been active and it's likely he might play back at us then I would call, but if we've been snug and there's a good chance we take it down pre then I'll 3b.

I'd rather call this and 3b KQo.