Some EV Calculations OTR

I'm IP. Villain Checks. I believe Villain will call any reasonable bet OTR.

$1 in the pot OTR

1) We have 30% equity

I bet 50c, Villain calls.

EV = (0.3 x 1.5) - (0.7 x 0.5) = 0.45 - 0.35 = +0.10

I check behind

EV = 0.3 x 1 = + 0.70

2) We have 50% equity

I bet 50c, Villain calls

EV = (0.5 x 1.5) - (0.5 x 0.5) = 0.75 - 0.25 = + 0.50

I check behind

EV = 0.5 x 1 = + 0.50

3) We have 70% equity

I bet 50c, Villain call

EV = (0.7 x 1.50) - (0.3 x 0.5) = 1.05 - 0.15 = +1.00

I check behind

EV = 0.7 x 1 = = + 0.70


Conclusion: In this simple example, if we think we are behind Villain's range then we should always check behind and when we think we are ahead of villain's range we should bet the maximum amount that we expect to be called.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by DJAbacus

I'm IP. Villain Checks. I believe Villain will call any reasonable bet OTR.

$1 in the pot OTR

1) We have 30% equity

I bet 50c, Villain calls.

EV = (0.3 x 1.5) - (0.7 x 0.5) = 0.45 - 0.35 = +0.10

I check behind

EV = 0.3 x 1 = + 0.70

2) We have 50% equity

I bet 50c, Villain calls

EV = (0.5 x 1.5) - (0.5 x 0.5) = 0.75 - 0.25 = + 0.50

I check behind

EV = 0.5 x 1 = + 0.50

3) We have 70% equity

I bet 50c, Villain call

EV = (0.7 x 1.50) - (0.3 x 0.5) = 1.05 - 0.15 = +1.00

I check behind

EV = 0.7 x 1 = = + 0.70


Conclusion: In this simple example, if we think we are behind Villain's range then we should always check behind and when we think we are ahead of villain's range we should bet the maximum amount that we expect to be called.

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The problem with the bold is that players will call less often against larger bet sizes in a lot of scenarios which can lead to a situation where betting less gives you a higher EV.

It's kind of a similar thought to spoony's, but you are assuming Villain always calls your bet.

You might want to consider your equity when you make "unreasonable" bets.

Thanks guys.

By reasonable bet I mean 50-100% pot.

This post was born out of my new love for calculating EV and the fact that the other night I was playing on a table where a V was literally this straightforward. V was 58/0 and would call me down (never raised even with AA) if he hit the flop ( weak pairs+, OESD, FD) and fold OTF if he missed. I played about 15 hands with V and I was IP every time. I did the maths on each hand and played them pretty well, maybe being too aggressive OTT a couple of times.