Value from quad A against regular solid player

Thoughts on my line? The villain is a regular whom I have >3k hands on now. He is position aware and occasionally has some creative plays but otherwise plays fairly solid, tight poker. Overall aggression F of 2.6. I'm certain he's also using a HUD and would have some notes on my play too.

I put him on KK and thought he would put me on AK and probably fold so checked back turn hoping for a river bet to try to maximize value.

Some of my notes on him are:

[P] 3Bet range {KK+,JJ} (3)
[P] 4Bet+ range {AA,AKo} (2)
[P] Called 2Bet from blinds range {TT,AQs,QJs,AQo} (4)
[P] Called 3Bets in position {AKo,AJo} (2)
[P] Called 3Bets out of position with {AJs} (1)
[P] Cold Called 2Bet In Position {QQ-KK,33,ATs,AQo} (6)
[P] RWPC range {88-99,AKo,ATo,KJo,J9o} (7)
[P] Squeezed with {AA} (1)
[F] Called flop cbet with weak hand - no draw (1)
[T] Played turn draw aggressively (2)
[T] Turn 2nd barrel w/pairs less than top pair (1)

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4


Hero (BTN): 121.52 BB
SB: 139 BB (VPIP: 15.57, PFR: 13.49, 3Bet Preflop: 8.94, Hands: 291)
BB: 80.36 BB (VPIP: 21.11, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 91)
UTG: 100 BB (VPIP: 13.31, PFR: 10.68, 3Bet Preflop: 3.27, Hands: 729)
UTG+1: 93.12 BB (VPIP: 9.09, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 11)
MP: 100 BB (VPIP: 17.83, PFR: 16.16, 3Bet Preflop: 7.75, Hands: 363)
MP+1: 104.2 BB (VPIP: 13.36, PFR: 12.15, 3Bet Preflop: 6.02, Hands: 252)
MP+2: 152.28 BB (VPIP: 17.39, PFR: 15.22, 3Bet Preflop: 3.70, Hands: 140)
CO: 176.12 BB (VPIP: 13.33, PFR: 11.67, 3Bet Preflop: 1.96, Hands: 729)


SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB


Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A:spade: A:heart:


fold, UTG+1 raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, fold, CO raises to 7.4 BB, Hero calls 7.4 BB, fold, fold, UTG+1 calls 5.4 BB


Flop: (23.6 BB, 3 players) A:club: A:diamond: K:diamond:
UTG+1 checks, CO bets 13.48 BB, Hero calls 13.48 BB, fold


Turn: (50.56 BB, 2 players) Q:club:
CO checks, Hero checks


River: (50.56 BB, 2 players) 6:spade:
CO bets 28.96 BB, Hero raises to 60 BB, CO calls 31.04 BB

To me, flatting the 3-bet PRE was bad. I'd work toward having a 4-bet range for spots like this, which is a reasonably common spot.

Your flat call prices in the UTG min-raiser to call, which significantly weakens your chances of winning with AA. You want to get it heads-up ASAP with AA.

Other than that, calling the flop is pretty standard. You have the deck crippled, and can only be beat by straight flush, so letting Villain set the price is fine.

OTT, you should be betting. You have the nuts. You put chips in the pot when you have the nuts.
You simply must bet the top of your range.
If opponents fold too much when you bet, then add the bottom of your range to that, too.
Letting him set the price and calling behind is fine as long as the price isn't laughably low.
The guiding principle here is that you want to bet as much as he'll call, and set up a river shove that is less than a pot-sized bet.

OTR you shorted yourself ~40 BB by not getting your whole stack in by the end. Your overbet may have been max value at that point, which demonstrates why the turn bet which sets up your river sizing is so important.

16bb on the turn

I think because were the button and villain has reads then we should be raising pre to like 16-17BB. It will be small enough that villian can put us on a resteal hand and make mistakes later on based on that info. Postflop as played looks ok. I think the main thing isnt how you played post, i think we need to focus on where the mistake began which is preflop.

if he's not 4betting AA pre its likely that villain is gonna see a 4bet in this situation as KK+ since his 4bet stat will be really low and his 3bet is likely lowish as well, so not sure how he's going to suddenly portray that as being a resteal hand by 4betting pre.Hero has to bet something on turn so that he can maximise his bet on the river while still getting called by Kx.As played i'd just shove over the river bet ands hope he'd got KK

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Keith

As played i'd just shove over the river bet ands hope he'd got KK

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+1

I've had a look at my preflop stats after reading your suggestions. My preflop 3bet % sits at 3.6, 4bet at 1.92%. Not sure how that 4bet translates to what Keith was suggesting in terms of villain seeing a 4bet as KK+ vs other ranges though?

I think he would have folded to a shove on the river, in the chat at the time he said to me "you have AK, I'm sure of it" a few times then "nh, I'm going to call anyway".

I'll rethink my preflop strategy here, and have another look at the turn. Thanks guys!

1.92% is pretty much QQ+AKs. Against a nitty reg in FR though i doubt that 4betting QQ and AKs will be standard though which would narrow it down to the KK+. Looking at his 3bet stat , can only see him having KK QQ

I think I play this the same except shove river over his bet. If he's calling a minraise then he's calling a shove, it can't be that much more. Betting turn some relatively faggoty amount like 10bb is probably not a bad move here, but I don't hate checking, so long as we're shoving over his river bets.

*edit - same line post flop, I meant to say. Pre I'd be 4betting for sure.