1/3NL: Trying to Piece Together Villain's Story with TP+OESD

Mid-afternoon on a Sunday at the local room. Only 3 weekday regulars at the table, including myself, and the table is playing loose but not out of hand with any obvious whales or LAGs.

I bought the button first hand in and PFRed my first 3 hands in, winning none of them. I'm sure my side of the table noticed and immediately noted me as an aggressive young gun, but attention was quickly diverted from me in those hands as people were showing down Aces and mucking trips and such. I've been at this table for a few hours, and I'm stuck $200+; I've been reupping my stack with benjamins each time I get down, so people probably don't think I care much about money. I have a losing image but I haven't gotten caught doing anything ridiculous. I'm sitting on $550.

Main villain (covers) in this hand is a gruff-looking white guy in his late 20s-early 30s. He has an Eagles zip-up and Eagles stocking cap. He has an absurdly baritone voice and blue-collar dialect/mannerisms. He's competent enough with his chips and all that he's not a totally recreational player.

He's gotten his stack by running well without getting to showdown a whole lot, so I can't really tell if his luck has involved getting dealt the nuts over and over again, or if he's mixed in some bluffs that didn't happen their way into the strong part of people's ranges. He's voluntarily shown AA for a boat as part of a streak where he got AA, QQ, AA on consecutive hands and has shown a straight on a 4-straighted board, and has quietly mucked everything else, so it's entirely possible that he can't help but show the nuts, meaning that a lot of his mucks were bluffs. He was in the drivers seat in the hands that didn't involve me, but these were mostly smaller, unraised pots, and I have no HH-based reason whatsoever to think he raises postflop as a bluff. Based on general demographic reads, I'd be surprised if he were just gonna play like a little bitch and wait around for the nuts, but it's very hard to tell what his idea of aggression is or even know for certainty if it exists.

In one hand early on, he raised over 3 limpers from the SB to $11 with AA. He x/c'ed a QJJtt flop, checked an A turn (it checked through), and x/r'ed a blank river. Obviously the hand taken as a whole pretty strongly indicates that he's trappy, but no one street was all that non-standard from a live player (except PF sizing). In another hand, he flatted a bet IP in a multiway limped pot with top two on QJ7tt, flatted a 3-flushed turn that brought some straight possibilities, and checked back a 4-flushed river with the 3rd nut flush. I was the other player in that hand, and I announced two pair before mucking to his flush. The flop flat is telling, but everything else about the hand is standard. So he's maybe a bit trappy with nutted hands.

I was to his direct right for much of the session, and he seemed perfectly willing to call many of my PFRs, regardless of size, without much thought. I tried some friendly table chat with him earlier, but it went pretty meh. At one point, I called the clock on an old reg without enough time elapsing, and the table got on me pretty hard for it, and main villain in this hand was the most vocal critic. If I had to guess, I'd say he doesn't like me, and I'd say he doesn't respect my game, but just like with his aggression, I'm not willing to bet a ton of money on these guesses. I've since seat changed a few doors to the right.

OTTH:

Player to my direct left posts $4. He's an american-born asian with gross sideburns and an Aaron Rodgers jersey (they were playing against the local team, fwiw). He's been playing standard live loose preflop and has been distracted by football (he has some sort of superfecta going), but he's been a factor in a lot of the pots postflop. The probabilistic argument that he's overplaying his hands is growing very strong very quickly, though he seems stickier than he is aggressive.

UTG limps in. He's a weekday regular. He's not totally out of hand with his limps, but he does it more than he should and he auto-calls any raise from me without any apparent plan than to just outflop me and stick it in my pooper.

I'm in UTG+1 with KsQc, and I'm already unsure what to do. I opt to make it $16. So far so good?

Poster calls in MP1. Main villain calls in MP2. BU calls. BB Calls. Limper calls.

6 way to the flop ($94). Flop comes KcJc5s. It checks to me. The pot's in danger of getting big quick, and I'm not absolutely in love with my hand, but I still think there's value in betting and it seems much better than any line that involves a check. I bet $45. Not sure if I could have gone even smaller?

Post folds. Main villain calls. I notice his hand shaking as he reaches for chips. The very first thing I think is, "Does he really have 55?" I haven't seen him shake before, and again, he's turned boats in 3-way pots. I have a "sense" that he's looking to play back at my PFR -> cbets at some point, but I don't have much tangible to base that on and this sense has failed me before. Everyone else folds.

Turn ($184) is the Ts. I have no idea whether I'm vbetting/semi-bluffing/betting for protection or what, but again, betting simply seems better than any line that involves a check, so I lead for $90. Villain announces raise. I look over, and he's counting out chips with, and his hands are shakier than before. The amount is $200. We have ~$300 left behind.

Hero folds/calls/shoves?

Limping and raising pre are both fine. These big offsuit broadways play surprisingly well in limped pots in live poker.

I would bet flop and probably a bit smaller, about 35. You're very likely to have the best hand but your main goal is to fold out 5 players' collective equity. An ace or two is almost certainly out, an underpair probably, AT/Q9/T9 are likely out, and you need to fold those hands out or get some value from them.

Betting 45 is fine, and once villain calls with three players left to act, your equity is going to be below 60% and you need to go into check/call or check/fold mode. The ten is a bad card and betting 90 is spewy. You can gain quite a bit of free information from him by checking, and live players tend to have awful bet sizing. You will likely get to see the river for free or he is likely to underbet the pot. If he makes a huge bet, you almost certainly can fold.

Once he raises only 110 more, you can call and donk shove A, 9, and club rivers, possibly spade rivers and Q rivers as well.

Checking the turn to exploit live players' inability to bet size is a good idea.

As for lead shoving some bluffs, I think it's a viable idea on a Q. I don't think it's good on a spade. As uncertain as I sounded about all of my reads in my post, the shakiness was very real and has a definite effect on his range. His range is really gonna be a lot of 55, maybe some two pair, and maybe some air that's deciding to get weird wid it. It doesn't make sense that he would even have a good draw when he's shaking in the face of a $45 bet.

Not sure if this makes my turn bet even worse, but there were so few nuts that the shakes made sense with that I didn't want to over-rely on that read quite yet. The shakes were completely unmistakable on the $200 raise though.