4Betting JJ UTG into Aggression

Morning. Posting a couple of hands i won or lost last night.

Pokerstars 5NL FR

Villain is 39/17 6 3bet and 17 Squeeze 347 hands. Observed 3betting range is TT+, AQo+, AQs+.
CO is a solid regular that based upon PF action has a hand weighted towards small pp? I don't think CO flats here with big pp.

4bet or Call? I think this is a 4bet given i have approx. 45% equity plus fold equity if i 4bet, i am oop 3way, there is a 57% chance that an over-card hits the flop, which hits villains range and i do not want this to play three-way.
Villain flats the 4bet which makes me put less weight on him holding QQ+.
Flop is about as good as it gets.
I think we get it in here? Against his PF range we have improved to 53% and if we take out QQ+ we are a 67% favorite.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (8 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://flopturnriver.com

CO ($5)
Button ($0.89)
SB ($6.73)
BB ($5)
Hero (UTG) ($8.69)
UTG+1 ($9.94)
MP1 ($5)
MP2 ($4.47)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif, Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif
Hero raises to $0.20, 2 folds, MP2 raises to $0.35, CO calls $0.35, 3 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, MP2 calls $1.15, 1 fold

Flop: ($3.42) 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif, 4http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif, 10http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $2.97, MP2 calls $2.97 (All-In)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Openside

I think we get it in here? Against his PF range we have improved to 53% and if we take out QQ+ we are a 67% favorite.

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You need to estimate your opponent's range to calling all-in when you do the equity calc.
It's unwise to assume that they'll call your all-in with their entire pre-flop range (unless you have a read otherwise).

You gave this as pre-flop range: { TT+, AQo+, AQs+ } (54 combos)

Since you open shove, you allow your opponent to play perfectly against you, folding out any hands that missed, and calling with hands that either have you crushed or have a strong draw.

I.e.
If Villain will call a shove with their entire range (including all combos of QQ+ pre), your equity is ~46%
EV = (46%)($9.36) - (54%)($2.97) = $2.71

If Villain will call a shove only with a set, overpair or NFD, (including all combos of QQ+ pre), your equity is ~13%
Opponent calls with 24 combos, folds 30 combos. 24/54 = 44% ; 30/54 = 56%
EV = (44%)((13%)($9.36) - (87%)($2.97)) + (56%)($3.42) = $1.31

If Villain will call a shove only with a set, overpair or NFD, (including 1/2 of the combos of QQ+ pre), your equity is ~16%
Opponent calls with 15 combos, folds 30 combos. 15/45 = 33% ; 30/45 = 67%
EV = (33%)((13%)($9.36) - (87%)($2.97)) + (67%)($3.42) = $1.84


***
So, unless I'm so rusty that I've completely narfed this up, you made a +EV shove.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Openside

4bet or Call? I think this is a 4bet given i have approx. 45% equity plus fold equity if i 4bet, i am oop 3way, there is a 57% chance that an over-card hits the flop, which hits villains range and i do not want this to play three-way.

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I agree with your logic.

Again, it reads like you're counting your equity against their current ranges, and not their calling ranges.

As a general good study practice, try to work out the EV calcs as I did in the above post.

Thanks mojo.

Given your readus i prefer flatting pre.
4betting folds all worse and gets You in a 50-50% at best give

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Razvan729

Given your readus i prefer flatting pre.
4betting folds all worse and gets You in a 50-50% at best give

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Show me the equity calc.

EDIT: what would you 4-bet here? What would you flat here?

:mischief:

It's threads like this that are of such higher quality for these stakes than anywhere else online. I'm going to be just buried in these all fall and winter while I absolutely crush the dreams of US site fish.

As for the hand: I probably would have played it exactly as you did. Of course, that doesn't mean that's the highest EV decision (by any means) but I'm just saying. I'm just a little worried about shoving the flop like that. I guess it's good, but I feel more comfortable shoving the flop with an overpair when it's QQ+. JJ is just a little too vulnerable for me. That said, I guess this is why you're contemplating the 4bet shove preflop...so that you can avoid this kind of spot.

Either way, I'm paying attention closely :cool:

You need to estimate your opponent's range to calling all-in when you do the equity calc.
It's unwise to assume that they'll call your all-in with their entire pre-flop range (unless you have a read otherwise).