Ancient Egyptian Poker Training Secrets Unearthed in Moscow Ruins

Over in the most important thread of 2014, the following scenario was given:

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It's a 100bb NLHE game. You raise in early position. A tight/aggressive player calls on the button. The flop of A95r is heads-up. Answer the following:

A. What is the best hand he's folding if you bet?

B. What is the worst hand he's calling if you bet?

C. What is the best hand you fold if you're raised?

D. What is the worst hand you call if you're raised?

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This is a summary of the answers that were originally given:

	jyms	oskar	Mury	tiltingdonkey	OngBonga
A	66	TT	44	88	JJ
B	A8s	AJ	JTs w/BDFD	T9s	A2s
C	AJs	55	AJ	AJs	None
D	AQs	99	AQ	AQo	JTs

Here are your instructions:

1. If you haven't given your own answers to the four questions, then go ahead and post them.

2. Look for patterns in the chart above and describe what you see.

You might also be interested to know that this thread ties into my column for the week titled Finding the Motivation to Improve at Poker. In this week's column, I lay out what I believe to be a very strong (yet simple) methodology for staying motivated to study, get better, and make more money.

I basically want to make some ballers, and you bastards are going to help me.

I guess I'll take a shot at this...

A. While answers vary as to how strong a pair he's folding, we think he's mostly folding pairs that will have a lot of trouble realizing their equity to the river especially to continued agression...

B. Most people don't think that our opponent is floating air on this board very often...

C. Most people think he's raising a fairly strong range and/or our top pairs will have a lot of trouble realizing their equity to the river even if he's raising light especially OOP and whilst our opponent has the betting lead...

D. Most of us must think he's raising air a fair portion of the time here to call as light as AQ...

That's what I've come up with, I'll think on it more and perhaps add more to this reply later on.

I think people are calling too wide to villain raising. It makes very little sense to be raising 99 & 22 for villain and same for AA which he rarely has. He also doesn't have a huge amount of air that he'll want to be getting fancy with when our range is so strong in the first place he's really going to struggle to fold out enough of our cbetting range to make bluffing good when his bluffing hands will have almost no equity.

I think people are also not floating cbets anywhere near as wide as they should be and when they are they are really capped.

It's a 100bb NLHE game. You raise in early position. A tight/aggressive player calls on the button. The flop of A95r is heads-up. Answer the following:

Assuming villain is a standard reg at the stakes I play and not done anything stupid in the session so far:

A. What is the best hand he's folding if you bet? 88 probably. He peels one with 76s/98s/T9s if his stats indicate he doesn't 3bet those pre and also peels one with TT-JJ. Villain's also likely to 3bet QQ/AK pre too depending on a host of other factors.

B. What is the worst hand he's calling if you bet? [B]Villain's don't tend to float Ahigh, dry flops with air in my experience. Therefore 76s with backdoor flush draw if he doesn't 3bet it pre.B]

C. What is the best hand you fold if you're raised? 44. I'm only folding trash with no pair and no backdoor draw, plus underpairs, because I'd expect to get raised for value here close to 0% of the time. Villain's just don't raise this board for value, which is stupid given no regs fold this texture vs a raise from a reg. Villain has no 2-pair in his range imo either.

D. What is the worst hand you call if you're raised? JTs with bdfd.

wow these answers actually say a lot about how each of you think about poker

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Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

wow these answers actually say a lot about how each of you think about poker

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Ding ding ding.

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Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

wow these answers actually say a lot about how each of you think about poker

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but what does it say we should be doing about it

ITT, I learnt that I don't like to fold and that I assume everybody's bluffing me.

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Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

wow these answers actually say a lot about how each of you think about poker

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What's more interesting to me is that I think very differently about poker in theory when talking about than what I do in practise at the tables. At the table I probably snapfold JTs when he raises, because I have jack high facing a raise, but when responding to the question I had more time to think in more detail about what he actually raises flop with, totally changing the direction of my thought process.

idk if I should put into practise my thoughts in theory, or disregard such ideas and continue to do what feels right at the time in the time given.

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2. Look for patterns in the chart above and describe what you see.

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A. Clearly there's disagreement as to how strong a pair he folds to a cbet, but noone thinks this guy is gonna fold a weak Ax to one bet.

B. The general feel is that this guy is rarely floating or chasing middle pairs. If he calls, he has an ace at least. I agree with this because our range is pretty tight, due to opening in ep, and flop is Axx, a disaster for most of his range when compared to ours. It wouldn't be the best floating spot from his pov.

C. The general feel is that his raises should be very much respected, but on such a dry board vs an aggro player, I'm not sure I agree with this.

D. Well the worst hand that people are calling is one rank above the best hand they're folding. That seems like an obvious observation, but maybe it shouldn't be this simple. I certainly get the impression that nobody who has responded 3bets flop with any of their range.

OK;
A. The best hand he is going to fold is mostly limited to random air. I think he is calling a lot of things with equity due to the texture of the board, including a ton of PPs. Of course this changes based on my image, if i am checking a lot of flops OOP then i think the reg is going to fold a lot more on this board. However for the sake of discussion the best hand he is folding is going to be KQo or 34s, which even then i assume he is going to float a non 0 amount of the time.


B. I am putting myself in the regs shoes, i would be floating some air with equity although this fits my MO. Just like everything in poker the answer is obviously "It depends". Based on the drrry texture of the board the worst i would float would be 87s w/ BDFD. Also some random Kx with backdoor nutflush equity. Assuming that the preflop raiser is stabby and a 1 and done type player on a board like this, i would be more inclined to float PP's (and other air), however the more aggro, the more likely i am to raise bluffs and float tighter.

C/D are basically the same question. If the reg is feisty i would call AJo+, if he is pretty passive i am only continueing with sets and a couple of combos of AK.

based on the info in the chart:

Given the wider range for the buttons flat, i think everyone is folding way too much in the btn vs EP cbets

i threw together a lose range which probably should discount premiums from the flatting range a bit (i still only included 1 combo of AA and 2 of KK), but still:

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: Ad9h5s
Equity Win Tie
MP2 58.91% 57.88% 1.04% { 88+, AJs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo }
BU 41.09% 40.05% 1.04% { QQ-22, AsAc, KhKs, KsKc, A2s+, KJs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, 43s, AQo+ }




Even though BTN is significantly behind, the btn still has a lot of equity just getting to the flop.

B. People contradicted themselves. Oskar and Jyms have the best hand he is folding as a random PP and the worst hand he calls is Ax, when there are PPs that are inbetween their fold/call range that need to be addressed.

Other than this i think that everyone is assuming that if he calls he has something. I just do not think this is the case and i believe that there is going to be a ton of air in anybodys floating range on this board (unless of course my image is that of a nit). If this survey represented the public accurately, then this means that we should be floating more. The general perception is that someone has a hand when they float one street on such a dry board. (although i think in reality, despite what people are saying in this exercise, a lot of people refuse to give credit on a board like this)

C. everyone are nits. I do not believe that in the heat of the moment people are folding so much. If that is the case and people are only continuing with AJ+ (unlikely), that means they are folding about 65% of their range (assuming that they cbet 100% of the range that i posted for the EP open)...this is where you print the monies.

D. Ongs seems the best, with calling a lot more raises than everyone else, however it is going to be tough to call OOP to a raise with JTs. I think this is suicide. Somewhere in the middle, the truth lies. If anything i would be more likely to 3bet junk like this as opposed to making tougher decisions OOP down the road (if opponent seems to be raising cbets with any frequency),and balance that out by playing my super strength fast on a board like this as well.

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If anything i would be more likely to 3bet junk like this as opposed to making tougher decisions OOP down the road (if opponent seems to be raising cbets with any frequency),and balance that out by playing my super strength fast on a board like this as well.

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3betting him seems fishy for the same reason his raise looks fishy. I would only be 3betting a set on this flop if I felt he takes sets out of my range as a result, which can only be determined if we know our image from his pov. I feel like calling flop is my only option if I intend to bluff. I just don't have a 3betting range here, so if I do 3bet it's for an unusual and specific reason. Calling flop and c/raising turn is definitely gonna be my strongest line for a bluff because that's my most likely line with a set.

Floating JTs is obviously gonna be risky, and as such it's not like I'm doing it 100% of the time with my air, because that's a lot of floating. I'm gonna be picking spots where I feel floating is viable. When he raises flop, I think this takes sets out of his range, and thus I feel his range is weighted more towards bluffs. But maybe I already successfully floated him in a similar spot recently. If so, I probably just let him take this one. Much depends on the dynamics between ourself and the villain.

When I answered JTs, that's because it's the worst hand I have in my range after opening in ep, therefore it's the worst hand I can float flop with.

I want to point out that in-depth analysis of individual hands like this will be much more likely to change (and improve) how you play at the tables than just about anything else I can think of.

I will give it a bash, will write down my thought process so large holes can be picked.

1st things 1st, what is a standard tag's calling range on the button to an EP raise assuming he is watching my game and thinks I am not getting out of line ?


77+,AJs+,KJs+,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s - Although AA/KK/AKs may elect to 3 bet pre I won't discount the player flatting these.

Flop A95r – He will be aware that I am probably betting near enough my whole range on this board, so would call down a bit lighter than on other flops, (maybe with the intention of floating one to see if I give up on the turn).


A. What is the best hand he's folding if you bet? TT/JJ
B. What is the worst hand he's calling if you bet? 76s
C. What is the best hand you fold if you're raised? AQs
D. What is the worst hand you call if you're raised? QQ

I am nittier than most early doors as I hate playing oop so C&D are based on what cards I would have in my EP range.

I think C is a big mistake though, I think I have enough equity vs his raising range to carry on, however in my limited experience when they raise me at micro stakes and they seem competent, then they usually have it, so that does cloud my thinking somewhat

Been out of the game for quite some time, but here goes;)

A: I put him on 22-JJ,AJs+,KJs+,QJs,AQo+ and the occasional QQ+. Out of these I think he will fold KJs+,QJs,22,33,44,66,77,88. So 88.
I think i put him on a too tight of a range pre flop. Was reading "Whats a range, Dad" by xtr1000, where he writes:

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Originally Posted by XTR1000

What´s a range, Dad?

o Keep in mind that the wider a range we assign, the more likely it is for his "true" range to be a subset of the range we gave him. This means that the fewer hands you include in a range, the more likely that range is to be incorrect and vice versa.

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This very important to grasp and not something I ever thought about before. I give villains to much credit and that is something I really have to work hard on.:D
B: I think he will call with 55,99,TT,JJ,AJs+,AQo+. So AJs
Again too tight calling range if I had put him a looser range to begin with this might have been more accurate:D
C: The best hand i'd fold is TT.
D: The worst i'd call is AJs

Good job getting in here guys. This type of analysis is what will make you better in those common spots that come up over and over again. Even a small improvement in skill in these spots turns into major piles of money because the spots come up so often. Here's a good example of what I mean:

Would you rather get $100 once or $1 every day for the rest of your life?