[50NL] A8s...3bet pot. Turn decision

Villain is 28/18/7 over 78 hands. FT3B 67%, 2/3.

PokerStars - $0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (CO): $54.06
BTN: $62.89
SB: $50.00
BB: $53.03
UTG: $53.23
MP: $65.69

SB posts SB $0.25, BB posts BB $0.50

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.75) Hero has A:diamond: 8:diamond:

fold, MP raises to $1.50, Hero calls $1.50, fold, fold, BB raises to $5.00, MP calls $3.50, Hero calls $3.50

Flop: ($15.25, 3 players) 8:heart: 3:diamond: 4:club:
BB checks, MP bets $7.00, Hero calls $7.00, fold

Turn: ($29.25, 2 players) 2:diamond:
MP checks, Hero ???

I don't know if I should be betting here? I think I probably have the best hand a lot of the time, I just picked up a tonne more equity and I don't want to get c/r off my hand.

Check and see the river?

Maybe it will be better to raise, and see what happen, because if you go check you give him an opportunity to make better pair than you. So raise to $12.50 and see what happen. My opinion is that the villain has AK.

Seems like a check here.

Fold pre imo.

As played I think this has to be a check, good showdown value and villain will be expecting us to bet most of our draws.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by STILL_mkd

Maybe it will be better to raise, and see what happen, because if you go check you give him an opportunity to make better pair than you. So raise to $12.50 and see what happen. My opinion is that the villain has AK.

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Definitely do NOT raise to "see what will happen". Raising to "see where you're at" is probably the worst possible reason to raise. If you put villain on AK, then he has only 3 outs (12% equity) vs your hand, so you really shouldn't be worried about letting him make a better pair. If your read is ever that strong, then you should be happily raise/calling this hand.

I'd be really tempted to make a small bet with this hand. If he was going for a check raise that sucks, but we'll be able to call it off so it isn't like we're forced to bet fold if he raises. Basically I really like the outcomes of this hand when we bet small. We deny him free cards in a spot where we're generally good. He's likely to call a small bet with AK/AQ to draw to his 10 outer, we get protection otherwise. We also deny him the ability to bet check bet bluff us on blank rivers. If he bets big on the river after we check back, we can't call there, but its possible he's bluffing.

Another spot where I should really be checking back a bit more, but I always bet. I doubt villain goes for a c/r here though when we have nearly as many sets and straights as we do 8x and 99/TT that won't pay off versus a jam anyway.