[50NL] AKo...Facing 4bet pre...Multi-way

MP is fairly unknown, 11/11 over 9 hands.

BU is 28/16/5 over 51 hands.

PokerStars - $0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: $51.50
CO: $104.96
BTN: $65.18
Hero (SB): $67.59
BB: $50.75

Hero posts SB $0.25, BB posts BB $0.50

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.75) Hero has K:diamond: A:heart:

UTG raises to $1.12, fold, BTN calls $1.12, Hero raises to $5.25, fold, UTG calls $4.13, BTN raises to $65.18 and is all-in, Hero ???

I feel like this is one of those standard spots where I should know what to do by now, but I'm still unsure sometimes. This is one of those times.

This is a back-raise technically. I call it off as standard and expect to see AQ/AK and small pp's often enough, but I think UTG's fold to 3bet, utg opening range, your image (is it squeezy?) and bb's image (is he squeezy?) should play an important part in your thinking. Even though we don't have much data to go on, try and make some assumptions with the data available.

What's PokerStove telling you?

Gotta call this off. I think if we had more hands on UTG and he was a reg running at 11/11 I'd be more worried, but only 9 hands I'm not really paying any attention to his stats.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by The Bean Counter

This is a back-raise technically. I call it off as standard and expect to see AQ/AK and small pp's often enough, but I think UTG's fold to 3bet, utg opening range, your image (is it squeezy?) and bb's image (is he squeezy?) should play an important part in your thinking. Even though we don't have much data to go on, try and make some assumptions with the data available.

What's PokerStove telling you?

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I just don't have enough information to do most of that, as Griffey pointed out, it's hard to take notice of the stats I have. I just post them to give a vague idea for this hand. The way the hand plays out I think both players look capped, like I hardly ever expect to see KK+ here from either player. If MP has AK though, we lose 2 outs.

I think that you should go fold. I know that AK are strong cards, but I think that BTN has pocket pair, so for my opinion it will be better to go fold. Maybe it will be dealt A or K on the table and you will make better pair, but for my opinion you don't have to risk all your money with these cards.
Maybe I am wrong, but this is only opinion. The decision is yours.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by STILL_mkd

I think that you should go fold. I know that AK are strong cards, but I think that BTN has pocket pair, so for my opinion it will be better to go fold. Maybe it will be dealt A or K on the table and you will make better pair, but for my opinion you don't have to risk all your money with these cards.
Maybe I am wrong, but this is only opinion. The decision is yours.

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if we know that button has a pair, say JJ, and we have AK then we call if we know utg is folding. Where you say 'maybe it will be dealt A or K' => you need to read these posts:
http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ev-109690.html
http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ll-173396.html

I think it is pretty close actually. If you knew for certain that UTG wasn't ever going to overcall the all in, then:

0 = (5.25+5.25+0.5+65.18-2.8)x - (65.18-5.25)(1-x)

(2.8 is for the rake, it actually matters here)

x = 45% equity required to call

If you suppose his range is TT+ AK, AKo has 40.3%. Gotta fold.

If you suppose he 3-bets KK+ AK 33% of the time and jams 99+ AQs AK every time, then AKo has 44%. Still a fold.

If you suppose he 3-bets KK+ AK 66% of the time and jams 99+ AQo/AQs every time, then AKo has 51%. Now we're talking.


Remember, that was all assuming that UTG NEVER calls. Suppose we assume that UTG would never not 4-bet with KK+, and would flat the 3-bet and overcall two all-ins with AK and QQ exactly.

Your equity assuming BT's loose range (AQo 99-QQ and 33% AK KK AA) and UTG's range (AK QQ) would be

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Equity Win Tie
MP2 41.40% 39.21% 2.19% { QQ-99, AdAh, AdAs, KdKh, KdKs, AQs, AdKd, AhKh, AQo, AhKd, AsKd, AsKh, AcKd }
MP3 32.07% 18.74% 13.33% { QQ, AKs, AKo }
CO 26.53% 12.83% 13.70% { AKo }


AKo runs really badly in 3 way all-ins. When UTG overcalls, even when he doesn't dominate us with KK/AA, its still a really bad situation for us.

Also, it would be pretty absurd to assume that the button ever jams AQo here for 65, or even for 50. It's just an easy call for him.


cliff's notes: It's an easy fold.