[10NL] 44...Flop a set on mono flop

Villain is 30/30/24 (3bet) over 90 hands. CB 73%.

PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (MP): $11.45
CO: $10.40
BTN: $4.85
SB: $10.00
BB: $14.68
UTG: $10.15

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has 4:heart: 4:club:

UTG raises to $0.30, Hero calls $0.30, fold, fold, fold, BB calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.95, 3 players) 3:diamond: 4:diamond: 8:diamond:
BB checks, UTG bets $0.80, Hero raises to $2.40, fold, UTG raises to $9.85 and is all-in, Hero ???


www.pokerstrategy.com
Equity Win Tie
MP2 57.60% 57.09% 0.51% { 88, 33, AdAh, AdAs, AdAc, KdKh, KdKs, KdKc, QdQh, QdQs, QdQc, JdJh, JdJs, JdJc, AdKd, AdQd, KdQd, AdJd, KdJd, QdJd, AdTd, KdTd, QdTd, Ad9d, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad2d, KdQh, KdQs, KdQc, KdJh, KdJs, KdJc }
MP3 42.40% 41.88% 0.51% { 4h4c }


We need 36% to call here, with the range I assigned villain we are getting 42%. Does my range look reasonable? He is fairly loose/aggressive, I have given him JJ+ w/ a diamond, any suited diamond broadways and all suited Axdd hands.

Man this is just like a hand we were talking about in the FTR chat room earlier (see the link in my signature). The general consensus is that getting it in is almost always the right play because you have so much equity even against the nuts.

I am calling with trips with Turn and River still to come.

33 is a fold here.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by daven

33 is a fold here.

---

Why ?? Because it puts sets in his range we can't beat? (44, 88). Hmm.

Cobra, I came up with 39% to call. Where'd i go wrong. I can almost def say my math is off. I better get back into shape though. I put a small roll on carbon. So I gotta start clearing the cobwebs

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by WeldPhaser

Why ?? Because it puts sets in his range we can't beat? (44, 88). Hmm.

Cobra, I came up with 39% to call. Where'd i go wrong. I can almost def say my math is off. I better get back into shape though. I put a small roll on carbon. So I gotta start clearing the cobwebs

---

Umm, I have it as 7.45/21.45 (bet/bet+pot)...it actually equals 35%. I'm not the best person for Maths though haha.

He is potting flop. Doesnt look like the nuts to me here. Call this. Look more like sets/ Ad/ KdK/ flush but not nuts.
I could also go on calling flop
But i like better a fold pre

I agree fold pre, we've got most of the table to act behind us and pfr isn't exactly tight. This isn't ideal setmining territory.

As played fistpump stacks in. I'm snapping 33 here too.