FR. call or ship ott?

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 102.36 BB (VPIP: 22.12, PFR: 16.35, 3Bet Preflop: 6.82, Hands: 109)
SB: 51.76 BB (VPIP: 29.63, PFR: 25.93, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 27)
BB: 117.8 BB (VPIP: 20.51, PFR: 10.26, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 41)
Hero (UTG): 115.72 BB
UTG+1: 58.88 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 1)
UTG+2: 103.12 BB (VPIP: 15.34, PFR: 13.42, 3Bet Preflop: 5.31, Hands: 319)
MP: 52.24 BB (VPIP: 14.43, PFR: 8.25, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 98)
MP+1: 100 BB (VPIP: 17.21, PFR: 14.75, 3Bet Preflop: 11.36, Hands: 122)
CO: 100 BB (VPIP: 9.05, PFR: 6.67, 3Bet Preflop: 3.95, Hands: 215)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has K:spade: K:diamond:

Hero raises to 2.8 BB, fold, fold, fold, MP+1 calls 2.8 BB, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 1.8 BB

Flop: (8.8 BB, 3 players) K:club: 2:diamond: T:spade:
BB checks, Hero bets 4.8 BB, MP+1 calls 4.8 BB, fold, HEro?

Turn: (18.4 BB, 2 players) J:club:
Hero bets 11.4 BB, MP+1 raises to 31 BB,
On the flop i only ebt 1/2 pot cuz i'm pretty much crushing the board , ddidn't want to bet too big and let him call with Tx or random pair type of hands. OTT , i'm obv worried he has AQ but i gave him a range of 22, TT, JJ which accoutnts for 9 combos , AQ which accounts for 16 combos , and maybe JTs which accounts for 4 combo's ( dont think he calls JTo pre). ( not sure how he would play JT here ott), Qctc?. obv maybe some spazzy bluffs as well though not very likely. ingame i was mostly pondering about calling or shipping turn.

If he plays JTs he prob plays KJ/KQ as well, both these hands will prob call a turn jam, I don't know about KQ though.

I think if we were in position I'd just flat this and let him bet the river, but we're oop and if we call turn then it's us first on river and we're either donking or giving him chance to check behind hands like KQ, or even a set or 2pr if the river is a scare card. We don't like certain rivers either, so yeah I think I just jam this now and be done with it. He's having a hard time folding anything he raises turn with, so I expect stacks in a lot more often than not.

Also, AQ is a cooler and I don't care if he has it, we're not dead and it's a small part of his range.

On this type of flop (KTx), even though you have top set, villain will peel all Tx (which is a lot - 8Ts,9Ts,JT,QT,KT,AT) and all gutters (AJ/AQ,J9) and all OESD (QJ) - so I think you can bet bigger here even with top set.

As played, b/c on turn ofcourse.

You're b/c turn? What's your plan on river?

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

You're b/c turn? What's your plan on river?

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I'm a station so probably call most, but A or 9 river would suck pretty hard.

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Originally Posted by griffey24

I'm a station so probably call most, but A or 9 river would suck pretty hard.

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This is why I just want to gii now. There's rivers we hate, and rivers he hates. We obviously crush his calling range here on the turn, and I can't see what he raises turn with that he then folds to a jam. Calling turn means we're oop on river and either donking, allowing him to fold on horror rivers, or checking over, allowing him to check back. Seems like we're losing value when we call. Am I wrong?

If anything, an A or 9 river probably helps us more than it helps him. I doubt he has too many bare Qx right now that don't already have a straight, so it let's us c/f more easily I'd imagine.

Probably in these games you don't need to worry too much about being exploited, but in general if you are jamming all your strong hands here, you will be folding tons of rivers when you do b/c.

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Probably in these games you don't need to worry too much about being exploited, but in general if you are jamming all your strong hands here, you will be folding tons of rivers when you do b/c.

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This is actually a good point. I wouldn't care about this at lower stakes, but I think at 25nl people are beginning to take solid notes etc. Although I'm not sure what I do b/c on this turn. Combo draws I guess, but I happily fold those on river when they brick. tptk is a b/f, so I dunno how much I need to worry about being exploited when I b/c.

*edit - yeah tptk is a combo draw, so my AK is exploitable because I'll b/c that and won't be a huge fan of villain jamming river. And I have AK a lot here. You have a point about b/c'ing this turn.

Call and c/f the river probably. 16 combos is a lot when there are only 6-9 combos of sets he could have.

Definitely don't 3-bet. Just call and hope he tips his hand strength with bet sizing on the river. You'll probably have to fold to an all-in, but if he bets less he'll be somewhat less likely to have a straight and you'll be getting better odds besides.

Oh and even if you plan to never fold, call and check is the best line. At least keep bluffs a possibility.

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Originally Posted by Renton

Call and c/f the river probably. 16 combos is a lot when there are only 6-9 combos of sets he could have.

Definitely don't 3-bet. Just call and hope he tips his hand strength with bet sizing on the river. You'll probably have to fold to an all-in, but if he bets less he'll be somewhat less likely to have a straight and you'll be getting better odds besides.

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hmm i kind of disagree on checkfolding the river. if he has 6-9 combo's of sets and 16 combo's of AQ then we get like 2:1 at least supposing he's also shipping sets. Which i think he is. Why wouldn't he?
he's probably be like lol AK and play sets for stacks here. don't really think he ever considers how big of a bet i'd be calling with AK

My gut tells me c/f is bad but I trust renton's gut more than mine. It would rank as a damn sick c/f afaic.

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

My gut tells me c/f is bad but I trust renton's gut more than mine. It would rank as a damn sick c/f afaic.

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spoiler . I called turn and check/called river for stacks