[spoonitnow strategy] EV Calculations Tutorial 4: Organizing Large Calculations
Quote:
A Difficult Scenario
We’re going to evaluate the EV of a particular strategy for a specific hand in the following situation. We are heads-up and out of position on the turn in a no-limit hold’em cash game hand. We hold JsTs on a board of As4h5d9s. The pot is currently $28 with $81 in our stack, and our opponent barely has us covered. We bet $21 on the turn. If our opponent raises us on the turn, then we fold our hand. Our opponent raises us 20 percent of the time, and our opponent folds 20 percent of the time.
The other 60 percent of the time, our opponent calls. There are nine spades left in the deck with 46 cards left to come, so the chance of a spade coming is 9/46. If a spade does not come, then we always check/fold with no chance of winning the pot even if it checks through. If a spade does come, then we go all-in for our last $60 on the river. Our opponent will fold 60 percent of the time. A total of 45 percent of the time, we will be called and win, but 5 percent of the time, we will be called and lose.
This week's post is the end of a four-part series on teaching you how to do fairly complicated EV calculations with extremely basic math (ie: no algebra). We find the EV of the above scenario in this week's edition using some tricks to simplify the process that I've covered over the past three weeks.
The link is here: http://www.flopturnriver.com/poker-s...ulations-20629
This series is inspired by what was going to be my 10,000th post before I decided to post about beef jerky instead.
