[10NL] AQo...Turn top 2 pair facing death line.

Villain is 22/22 over 18 hands.

PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (CO): $15.24
BTN: $11.22
SB: $15.59
BB: $5.87
UTG: $9.26
MP: $20.17

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has A:heart: Q:heart:

fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.30, fold, fold, BB calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.65, 2 players) 3:diamond: Q:club: T:spade:
BB checks, Hero bets $0.55, BB calls $0.55

Turn: ($1.75, 2 players) A:spade:
BB checks, Hero bets $1.40, BB raises to $2.80, Hero ???

Villain has taken the absolute death line here but given he is shortstacked and we have a pretty strong hand can we really fold?

I expect to see 33/TT/KJ so, so much here.

happy fold even if villain is short.
what else could take this line? QT/J9ss/AT? if these are in his c/r turn range , yeah then call... but.. i dont know... i expect him to c/c again w/ QT/AT, maybe CRAI w/ J9ss...

i am folding, but really cant say what's better.... just my option.

His raise risks $2.80 to win a pot of $3.15, meaning if you fold more than 47% of your turn betting range, he can raise any two cards profitably. Even if he'd jammed (which, since you basically expect all the money to go in now, he might as well have done) that would risk about $5 to win $3.15 requiring you to fold 61% of the time for a profit with any two cards, so facing a jam, you'd have to call 39% of your turn betting range to deny him that opportunity.

If your turn betting range is:

3 x QQ
3 x TT
3 x 33
3 x AA
9 x AQ
2 x QTs
3 x ATs
2 x A2s
4 x KJs

That's 29 total combos so to defend 39% of your range you have to call just over 11 combos, or to defend 53% you have to call just over 15. There are 12 sets, so take your choice. I don't think I'm folding top 2 here with him being this short, but the maths says you probably can, at least sometimes.

EDIT: just looked at his stats, he looks pretty agro which makes me even more inclined to call, a turned FD or combo draw can play like this, and his stats make me suspect an agro shorty that's won a pot rather than a short sitting fish.

i'd jam and expect to see enough QT,AT,AQ vs 33,TT,KJ for it to be profitable. the fact that he's not sitting full stacked, you have no history with him, and he has C/MR'd you (may or may not be a bad play, but it's one more commonly used by weaker players) makes me think he's likely not a reg or decent short-stacker, and thus probably has a wide enough range to felt. hell from what we know of villain at this point he could even have A3cc or A3ss in his range.

also, i could just be out of the loop with strategy these days, but i don't see a point in attempting to perform calculations for unexploitability in this spot (as boris has done) given:
- this spot comes up so rarely
- there's a good chance we won't see much of this player again
- he's probably not attempting to exploit us (by making us fold a better hand) very often if ever in this spot

i'd just attempt to put villain on a range and then attempt to play ours in the most +EV fashion we can based on that info. again, that could well be antiquated poker logic

edit: not saying that ^ kind of calculation isn't important. i'm just saying i don't think it's necessary in this spot, and our mental energy could be better spent forming a range and then estimating our equity against it with different hands. i'd treat this turn spot as being played in a vacuum and look to maximise my EV

If we work on the basis of villain jamming (since we have almost certainly have no fold equity), what equity do we need to make the call? How is that getting on against the range rpm mentions?

unless he's 10/8 or lower I'm shoving and living with whatever happens. I'm not folding AQ on that board to that stack ever.

Jamming here every time and whatever happens, happens. At least we have some equity when we're behind to a set or straight. It's a very strong line to be sure but sometimes you will see some worse 2 pairs or combo draws or whatever. Definitely not folding with these stacks.

I think you are not behind, he could easily have AT or QT. if he has a steaight or a set, consider that he will win 90% of times skince you still have the 4 outs for the full boat. I think i would be shoving, due to pot odds.

Quote:

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I think you are not behind

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This is not the correct way to look at it. Put villain on a range, and then work out what % of the time he beats us, and what % of the time he doesn't, then look at pot odds, and decide if call is +ev or not.

By saying "I don't think we're losing", you're failing to take these steps which will massively increase your winrate. You're making the mistake of putting villain on a hand, rather than a range, and you're making the even bigger mistake of putting villain on a hand we beat to justify a call.

I'd call coz I hate min raises but if you do the math you will have your answer. Post math here then for review/critique.

Lot of misinformation in this thread. His most likely hand is a straight but you can assign full likelihood to top and middle pair and some likelihood to top and bottom. You're committed, just call this down. Three betting the turn sucks since he could have air.