1/2 zoom. Bit of a tricky spot.

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11-01-2013, 07:38 AM
AnTman_69

1/2 zoom. Bit of a tricky spot.

Assume competent opponent. Thoughts?

I've already come up with what i think is best and why, but just out of interest I wanted to hear from some of the FTR guys.

$1/$2 Zoom No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($388.14) 194bb
UTG+1 ($238.04) 119bb
CO ($426.72) 213bb
BTN ($250.80) 125bb
SB ($208.65) 104bb
AnTman_69 (BB) ($913.01) 457bb

Pre-Flop: ($3, 6 players) AnTman_69 is BB :9s: :8s:
2 folds, CO raises to $5, 2 folds, AnTman_69 raises to $17.50, CO calls $12.50

Flop: :4d: :8d: :9h: ($36, 2 players)
AnTman_69 bets $26, CO calls $26

Turn: :7h: ($88, 2 players)
AnTman_69 bets $64, CO raises to $140, $76 to AnTman_69 ($805.51)?
11-01-2013, 09:33 AM
griffey24

This is a very gross spot, based on stacks. Given stacks I think villain will for sure be calling all of his JTs hands pre, but probably not JTo. I think it's safe to assume that most of the time he might find a flop raise with JTdd. So he reps JTc/s/h, 3 combos on the turn. If he has offsuit JT hands then he obv reps way more combos.

There are tons of combo draws as well. This spot just really sucks because villain knows with a high confidence that you do not have JTs (I'm assuming you're prob not 3b this often), so he can continue to put a ton of heat on you on the river.

In practice I think I call turn and re-eval river and hope for a brick spade or club to call on, or a 9/8.
11-01-2013, 09:41 AM
BorisTheSpider

You're pretty deep so I don't really put it past him to have 56s/67s/78s type stuff, so yeah, it's quite a tough spot. 100bb deep I think something like {AhQh, AhJh, QhTh, QdTd, JhTh, JcTc, JsTs} makes it to the turn and raises, but this deep if he can have the smaller SCs then I think either the turn is a fold, or maybe call and re-eval river, but his sizing makes me want to fold.
11-02-2013, 09:32 PM
Renton

Well your hand isn't much better than AA. I think with these stacks you're gonna check the turn with 95% of your range, so I guess I'd check with 98 suited also. You need to have some strongish hands that c/c c/c anyway and this seems like a top candidate for that. I think its easy to think that your hand is usually good and you should therefore bet but the situation isn't as favorable as it looks. Even tough your hand is good the majority of the time on this turn, if you bet and he calls and a diamond, heart, 5, 6, ten, or jack comes you're gonna have a bluff catcher. A decent player in villain's position is gonna be able to steal a ton of equity from hands like 98 and AA on those rivers just by bluffing a decent range.

So I prefer not concerning myself too much with protection on a turn where I know he has 10 outs or so but I don't know which 10 they are. Keep his range wide and rep a weaker range and hope that he bluffs a wider range or value bets worse like TT/JJ.

As played I'd fold I guess.
11-02-2013, 11:13 PM
AnTman_69

Quote:

Originally Posted by Renton

Well your hand isn't much better than AA. I think with these stacks you're gonna check the turn with 95% of your range, so I guess I'd check with 98 suited also. You need to have some strongish hands that c/c c/c anyway and this seems like a top candidate for that. I think its easy to think that your hand is usually good and you should therefore bet but the situation isn't as favorable as it looks. Even tough your hand is good the majority of the time on this turn, if you bet and he calls and a diamond, heart, 5, 6, ten, or jack comes you're gonna have a bluff catcher. A decent player in villain's position is gonna be able to steal a ton of equity from hands like 98 and AA on those rivers just by bluffing a decent range.

So I prefer not concerning myself too much with protection on a turn where I know he has 10 outs or so but I don't know which 10 they are. Keep his range wide and rep a weaker range and hope that he bluffs a wider range or value bets worse like TT/JJ.

As played I'd fold I guess.

Thanks for the great response.

I've not got too much experience in deep 3b pots OOP so this spot was a little foreign to me. As soon as i made the bet, intuitively - i felt that something was wrong. I guess now i have to figure out what my barrel range should look like on this turn card, and whether or not I should even have one. Might be best to c/c draws as well as bet some. It's difficult to work out a c/r range with these stacks as whatever hand that c/r's here has decent equity and is at risk at getting shoved over the top of. Deep stack poker is pretty interesting.
11-02-2013, 11:23 PM
AnTman_69

Quote:

Originally Posted by griffey24

This is a very gross spot, based on stacks. Given stacks I think villain will for sure be calling all of his JTs hands pre, but probably not JTo. I think it's safe to assume that most of the time he might find a flop raise with JTdd. So he reps JTc/s/h, 3 combos on the turn. If he has offsuit JT hands then he obv reps way more combos.

There are tons of combo draws as well. This spot just really sucks because villain knows with a high confidence that you do not have JTs (I'm assuming you're prob not 3b this often), so he can continue to put a ton of heat on you on the river.

In practice I think I call turn and re-eval river and hope for a brick spade or club to call on, or a 9/8.

Thanks for the response man.
Hmm. I'm not sure I like a call/reeval. Calling guarantees he gets to see the river and possibly catch some equity and/or bluff profitably super high % of the time, and jamming is always gonna be marginal at best. I feel like I pretty much lost the hand as soon as I bet and have left myself with no option but to fold. I guess the bet is okay for value against the weaker players, but probably just wishful thinking I could get away with this line vs a solid opponent.
11-03-2013, 01:54 AM
Renton

I should add that when betting I don't expect to be raised at all except by JT/65 or a bluff. I'm not being results oriented by criticizing betting, the negative results of betting imo are getting called and outplayed on rivers. In a way he made it easy for you by raising here cause its just a straight nearly every time.
11-03-2013, 02:19 AM
OngBonga

I'm out of my depth here but whatever, this hand interests me.

I don't want to fold this. Feels like if he's a competent villain, we're gonna be seriously underepped here. If he thinks we have KK/AA, he has tons more sets in his range. He isn't to know we have blockers. This is a great spot for him to bluff, and as such our hand is a great bluff catcher.

I want to call and then c/c river. Seems like we need to pick off three or four bluffs every ten hands or so. I don't think that's an outrageous ask considering we're underepped vs a competent villain.
11-03-2013, 07:57 AM
pocketfours

Quote:

Originally Posted by OngBonga

I'm out of my depth here but whatever, this hand interests me.

I don't want to fold this. Feels like if he's a competent villain, we're gonna be seriously underepped here. If he thinks we have KK/AA, he has tons more sets in his range. He isn't to know we have blockers. This is a great spot for him to bluff, and as such our hand is a great bluff catcher.

I want to call and then c/c river. Seems like we need to pick off three or four bluffs every ten hands or so. I don't think that's an outrageous ask considering we're underepped vs a competent villain.

I disagree with us being "seriously underrepped". We have shown maximum strength and we aren't particularly close to the top of our range. We are protected by our sets and straights so we shouldn't be too worried about being exploited. This hand is not a very good bluff catcher as it doesn't (significantly) block the hands villain is representing and it will only rarely improve.
11-03-2013, 11:18 AM
OngBonga

Yeah I'm not considering improving, though obviously that gives us a little more equity. But I do think we block hands he's repping... as already stated, we don't have JTs in our range all that often, though obv we do sometimes if we're 3betting 89s. Knowing this, villain can rep 88 and 99 because if he has these, they're very close to the nuts. As far as I'm concerned, he has 44 88 99 TJs and occasionally 56dd. And of course bluffs. How many bluffs and semi bluffs he has is not something I'm in any position to estimate. I expect JTdd to raise flop so I'm giving him 8 (maybe 9) combos that beat us, but he might figure we're beat my more than 8 combos. This is what I mean by being under repped. I suspect he thinks we have an overpair. Does he think we can fold it? I don't know, but if he thinks so, then I expect him to bluff with a high frequency, certainly enough to balance out the 8 combos we lose to.

I could just be levelling myself into stationing off here, and this could easily be one of the reasons I'm stuck at lower stakes. But folding hurts here and it makes me feel particularly exploitable.
11-03-2013, 11:41 AM
griffey24

Quote:

Originally Posted by pocketfours

I disagree with us being "seriously underrepped". We have shown maximum strength and we aren't particularly close to the top of our range. We are protected by our sets and straights so we shouldn't be too worried about being exploited. This hand is not a very good bluff catcher as it doesn't (significantly) block the hands villain is representing and it will only rarely improve.

Only OP knows if we're protected by sets or straights here. I don't think most ppl are 3b 77/88/99 deep OOP necessarily. Nor are they 3b JTs necessarily. So this could be the top of hero's range.
11-03-2013, 01:47 PM
Renton

No, JJ and TT are 12 combos with more equity vs the range villain is representing. 98 is probably about the median hand in our range.
11-03-2013, 02:52 PM
griffey24

Quote:

Originally Posted by Renton

No, JJ and TT are 12 combos with more equity vs the range villain is representing. 98 is probably about the median hand in our range.

Ok true, I agree having those hands with blockers would be better.
11-03-2013, 04:04 PM
OngBonga

I played a hand a couple of hours ago that was so similar to this is was scary. I flopped top two and villain turned the nuts. I called his turn raise and river shove. It was after I first commented in here and I found myself wishing I listened to people here who say this turn is a fold.
11-06-2013, 12:37 AM
gabe

if he had QThh or KThh he would probably raise more if he was feeling froggy? what are the bluffs? overpairs are rare. Txdd i guess
11-08-2013, 02:10 AM
Genitruc

no one wants to call and jam all red rivers?
11-08-2013, 02:23 AM
pocketfours

Quote:

Originally Posted by Genitruc

no one wants to call and jam all red rivers?

Not a bad plan now that we bet the turn and because this raise is tiny. But while we're at it, let's jam all board pairing rivers as well...
11-08-2013, 09:47 AM
griffey24

Ummm... hoping to get a straight to fold for 240 shove into a 360 pot when a flush card comes (and could induce a last ditch bluff) seems like wishful thinking to me!
11-08-2013, 05:59 PM
Genitruc

Quote:

Originally Posted by griffey24

Ummm... hoping to get a straight to fold for 240 shove into a 360 pot when a flush card comes (and could induce a last ditch bluff) seems like wishful thinking to me!

this is what happens when you fish in completely different bodies of water for such a long time!
11-08-2013, 06:00 PM
Genitruc

Quote:

Originally Posted by pocketfours

Not a bad plan now that we bet the turn and because this raise is tiny. But while we're at it, let's jam all board pairing rivers as well...

i think we get less credit for board-pairing cards
11-08-2013, 10:30 PM
AnTman_69

Quote:

Originally Posted by Genitruc

no one wants to call and jam all red rivers?

Heh. Maybe a decent plan for PLO. Thing is though.. I've decided my turn barreling range will be made up mostly of high equity draws, which, when faced with a raise will probably ship. If i choose to call that portion of my range on the turn..... then I think having a balanced river donk shipping range could be decent. But with this exact hand it's gross - it would amplify the error of my turn play and force us to bluff river with a hand that may be best.
11-17-2013, 01:13 PM
Capua

.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Renton

No, JJ and TT are 12 combos with more equity vs the range villain is representing. 98 is probably about the median hand in our range.

Actually us having TT or JJ here OTT is worse imo, true we have blockers to straights, but now we don't block 9 sets Villian could have. We also lose now to KK-AA. But imo this problem all comes down to game past game dynamics, reads and leveling etc. Readless with no history I would bet b/f turn and feel okay. If called I would shove all rivers.

Thoughs?
11-18-2013, 11:09 AM
Renton

Quote:

Originally Posted by Capua

Actually us having TT or JJ here OTT is worse imo, true we have blockers to straights, but now we don't block 9 sets Villian could have. We also lose now to KK-AA. But imo this problem all comes down to game past game dynamics, reads and leveling etc. Readless with no history I would bet b/f turn and feel okay. If called I would shove all rivers.

Thoughs?

99 and 88 are pretty unlikely when he doesn't raise such a wet board deep. By the turn its virtually impossible for him to have KK or AA since he didn't 4bet preflop or raise the flop.
11-18-2013, 04:24 PM
Capua

Quote:

Originally Posted by Renton

99 and 88 are pretty unlikely when he doesn't raise such a wet board deep. By the turn its virtually impossible for him to have KK or AA since he didn't 4bet preflop or raise the flop.

I agree.. I missed that..
02-28-2014, 12:58 PM
STILL_mkd

This is a very hard decision. Maybe the villain have set of sevens, or maybe JT and with the 7 on the turn he made a straight. However, you have really good hand (two pairs), but maybe he has only pocket pair like KK or QQ (I don't think that he has AA because if he had two aces than he will make you re-raise/all-in on your re-raise pre flop), so if I was on your place I probably will make a call.