AK TPTK 2NL - Bet River?

Villain is 17/12 w/ 3bet = 6 and AF = 3.5 over 2k hands.

When the flop comes, I check his fold to cbet and see 39 (17/44). I'm liking that, so I size my cbet large-ish. Turn's a blank, fire.

River comes, and this is where I need help. Do I 3-barrel? If so, what size bet? If I put any kind of reasonable bet in, and he comes over the top, I'm pot-committed. And beat.

Thanks for and advice on any streets.

Winning Poker Network - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (MP): 126.5 BB
CO: 107 BB
BTN: 116.5 BB
SB: 133.5 BB
BB: 58.5 BB
UTG: 101.5 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K:heart: A:heart:

fold, Hero raises to 4 BB, fold, BTN calls 4 BB, fold, fold

Flop: (9.5 BB, 2 players) 4:heart: 4:diamond: A:club:
Hero bets 7.5 BB, BTN calls 7.5 BB

Turn: (24.5 BB, 2 players) 2:heart:
Hero bets 20 BB, BTN calls 20 BB

River: (64.5 BB, 2 players) 6:spade:
Hero ???

Spoiler: Show

Hero checks, BTN checks

Hero shows K:heart: A:heart: (Two Pair, Aces and Fours)
Hero wins 61.5 BB

Against a tight player like this, I'd try to pot-control this a bit more from the get-go, when OOP the only tool you've got really is sizing so I'd make the flop like 6bb, giving us a ~21bb turn pot, bet about 13bb on the turn and you've got a ~47bb river pot to bet-fold about 30bb into.

As played, you have about 70bb behind, so I think you can bet-fold about 30bb here.

Really, it comes down to how much value do you think is appropriate for your hand vs. this player. Against a 17/12 or therabouts, I'd say about 50bb of value is probably appropriate (so about a 100bb final pot) - if you're playing a smaller pot than that, you're missing out on value, and if you're playing a much bigger one there's a significant chance you're value towning yourself.

Another option, given that you pick up the heart draw, is to just check-jam the turn. His AF is pretty high so you can probably expect him to stab when you check after cbetting the flop, and when he does and you jam, he can either call with a worse flush draw, or maybe a worse ace that thinks it's snapping off a semibluff with a bare flush draw.

EDIT: I just looked at the spoiler (didn't at first because I didn't want to be influenced by results) - I _hate_ the check. I know it's uncomfortable on the river, but that's because you made the pot big enough that you ended up in a situation where you felt like if you bet you'd be commiting to more value than you felt your hand had vs this guy. You still can't check the river though - he's shown no strength at all throughout the hand, and you've every reason to believe he'll bluffcatch you with worse, so I definitely think betting, even if you make it smallish, is best.

Villain never has 4x bet bet bet you can size yr river bet to stop him hero folding Aq Ajs etc

7, 18, 40

Dunno why you're worried about him shoving, if he only ever shoves when he has you beat then no worries we just bet/fold. Checking the river is AWFUL btw.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by kickass

Villain never has 4x bet bet bet you can size yr river bet to stop him hero folding Aq Ajs etc

---

i like the sizing . what better has he got ? he folds 22 and 66 on the flop, he doesn't have 53 in his preflop calling range, he 3bets AK pre, leaving him with 44 and a ton of worse aces and a small amount of A4. I just shove the river as nobody hero folds at 2nl

^^

With AK tptk I like pot/pot/shove. I'd only slow down to a 4-straight or 4-flush. You won't always be good but you'll be good most of the time, making it very +ev.

The better question is why WOULDN'T you triple barrel?

Of all the possible boards, and all the possible run outs, this board/run out is probably THE BEST in terms of "safe for AK" you can POSSIBLY get. EVER imo. The only better run out might be A4422.

Such a tight villain won't have 4x. Such a tight villain won't peel 22 or 66 on the flop. A2 doesn't even beat us. So we ONLY lose to A6.

pot/pot/shove

2nl is easy

Thanks, guys, I really appreciate your thoughts on bet-sizing on all streets. Weak-tight seems best postflop at these stakes.

I always struggled (even in my winning at NL25 days) with when to play for stacks with TPGK. Anyone got any good resources on that? Posts, articles, videos? Thanks.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Robb

TI always struggled (even in my winning at NL25 days) with when to play for stacks with TPGK.

---

The simple answer is when it beats villain's stacking off range. Take this hand for example. Villain is 17/12. He's probably flatting pairs and Axs. He prob 3bets AA and AK so I'm assuming these hands are not in his range. There's one combo of 44 and two of A4s in his range that crush us. That's three combos, and even then we're not dead to any of this. Even if he has only AQ in his range that he we beat and he plays for stacks, that's 8 combos, so he's more than twice as likely to lose than win when we stack AK vs his range of AQ A4s 44. Throw in some AJ and any flush draws he might feel like getting fruity with, and our ev increases dramatically. AK is near nuts here. AQ is stackable here too imo. I draw the line at that, I'm not too thrilled if we have AJ and he's happy to get stacks in.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Robb

Thanks, guys, I really appreciate your thoughts on bet-sizing on all streets. Weak-tight seems best postflop at these stakes.

I always struggled (even in my winning at NL25 days) with when to play for stacks with TPGK. Anyone got any good resources on that? Posts, articles, videos? Thanks.

---

Just practice I guess, and knowing villains possible call down ranges. I mean... ask yourself what hands beat you and ask yourself how likely those hands are (either from a hand combo perspective, or from villain playing that hand perspective).

In your example, what hands beat you?

4x - Possible combos? A lot technically, but unlikely from a tight player vs your EP raise. Maybe A4s, so one combo A4ss.
44 - Possible yes, but hand combos wise limits it to 1 combo.
22 - Possible, no, wouldn't call flop.
66 - Possible, no, wouldn't call flop and turn.
A6 - Possible, yes. Would have to be suited from a tight player. The only remaining A6s hand is A6dd, so 1 combo.

So you lose to 3 total combos of hands, A4ss, 44 and A6dd.

So you need to get called by at least 3 combos of hands for your river bet to be profitable. Total possible hands that might call you?

AQ(8), AJ(8), ATs(2), A9s (2), among others. Worst case scenario he has possibly 20 combos that could call. So even if he folds 85% of his other top pair hands, and calls all the hands that beat us, we still need to bet this.

In fact there's only one combo of A4s in villain's range.

lol nice post griff, pretty much what I was saying, except you're better at counting combos!

Really in my example if I'm saying A6s is possible, then I should also add A7/A8s as well, so that's another possible 4 combos total that could call.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by OngBonga

lol nice post griff, pretty much what I was saying, except you're better at counting combos!

---

haha nice post to you too :) Nah the suits make things more complicated haha, damn blockers.

Also in this case the most likely hand to be calling down is probably AQ with some sort of diminishing frequency as the Kicker drops from J to T etc.

So if the river was a Q, that would be a horrible card. Suddenly 8 combos of hands that we beat and were the most likely hands to call our river bet in the first place, now beat us.

So 11 combos would beat us. Then the 24 possible TP hands we beat drops to 16. So now this changes the situation significantly, and in this spot we should maybe bet much smaller to get called by worse and fold to a jam.

Yeah my example assume we stack off on flop, I wasn't really thinking street by street. But if he's calling down A6s, then he's calling down all the other Axs in his range, so that's great if A6s is still in his range come river.

Three more hands on the same river bet question theme. Do we bet? If so what size?

Hand 1. Villain is 71/10/6 (3b) over 75 hands, AF = 1.1. I'm happy until the river that I'm ahead of his range. On the river, I'm concerned about A4, A5 and AT (a little). I don't see AQ with this betting. Perhaps the sets could be played this slow. So I'm pretty sure I'm ahead to anything but a monster, so I bet/fold small.

Winning Poker Network - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): 111.5 BB
SB: 47 BB
BB: 128.5 BB
UTG: 120.5 BB
CO: 236.5 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A:spade: K:heart:

fold, CO calls 1 BB, Hero raises to 4 BB, fold, fold, CO calls 3 BB

Flop: (9.5 BB, 2 players) 5:spade: 6:heart: A:club:
CO checks, Hero bets 7.5 BB, CO calls 7.5 BB

Turn: (24.5 BB, 2 players) Q:spade:
CO checks, Hero bets 15 BB, CO calls 15 BB

River: (54.5 BB, 2 players) T:diamond:
CO checks, Hero bets 12.5 BB, CO calls 12.5 BB

Spoiler: Show

Hero shows A:spade: K:heart: (One Pair, Aces)
Hero wins 76 BB

Hand 2.
Villain is 40/1/1 (3b) over 300 hands, with AF = 0.6. He folds to cbets 52%. I like the board for a cbet, but his stats seem so station-like I check behind. Turn's a nice blank, unlikely to make hand but maybe gave him draws, so I put in my delayed value bet. River? Jeez, I don't know. A couple unlikely straights made it, backdoor flush made it, and some 2 pair combo hands possible.

Winning Poker Network - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (UTG): 129 BB
CO: 107.5 BB
BTN: 120 BB
SB: 99 BB
BB: 64 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A:spade: Q:spade:

Hero raises to 4 BB, fold, fold, SB calls 3.5 BB, fold

Flop: (9 BB, 2 players) 8:spade: 8:heart: J:club:
SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: (9 BB, 2 players) 3:club:
SB checks, Hero bets 5 BB, SB calls 5 BB

River: (19 BB, 2 players) 9:club:
SB checks, Hero checks

Spoiler: Show

Hero shows A:spade: Q:spade: (One Pair, Eights)
Hero wins 18.5 BB

Hand 3.
Villain is 68/13/6 (3b) with AF = 1.6 and 64% Fold to Cbet. The problems here are obvious. Any suggestions welcome, but the river bet question is on theme. Bet for value, here?

Winning Poker Network - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (CO): 103 BB
BTN: 123.5 BB
SB: 155 BB
BB: 111 BB
UTG: 115.5 BB
MP: 107.5 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K:heart: K:spade:

UTG calls 1 BB, fold, Hero raises to 5 BB, fold, fold, fold, UTG calls 4 BB

Flop: (11.5 BB, 2 players) A:club: J:diamond: 6:diamond:
UTG checks, Hero bets 6 BB, UTG calls 6 BB

Turn: (23.5 BB, 2 players) 5:heart:
UTG checks, Hero checks

River: (23.5 BB, 2 players) 5:diamond:
UTG checks, Hero checks

[spoil]Hero shows K:heart: K:spade: (Two Pair, Kings and Fives)
Hero wins 22.5 BB
[/spoil]

I'd play these:

Hand 1: b/f every street
Hand 2: bet flop half pot, fold to a raise, then check it down
Hand 3: check back flop, then half pot turn and river, folding to any raise

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by abelardx

Hand 1: b/f every street

---

Definitely. But you can raise more pre vs this guy for sure, I probably go to x6, more if he'll pay it.

h2 I prob play this the same.
h3 yeah I think I check flop and then b/f turn and river, prob a little over half pot. Again I'm raising more pre because a loosie goosie just limped. Again, x6 or bigger, depending on what I think his l/c limit is. I'd be interested in finding this out and would probably be increasing my raises against him until I see him l/f.

Hand 1 looks good other than the river sizing - I think you should bet-fold about 25-30bb on the river here.

Hand 2 looks fine, no more value to be had if you're not just getting called by better on the turn anyway.

Hand 3, I don't like betting the flop. Maybe with the jack out there it's OK, but I think I prefer to just bluffcatch and let him bet a jack or worse. That might be bad at 2NL though, since you probably do get called by a jack pretty often.

Although there is a flush draw out there, and some gutters (which incline me to bet the flop) bear in mind if you're going to bet one street for value, in one sense it's better to make it a later street - a flop bet carries the threat of future bets with it, so although a jack might want to call it, the expected turn barrel tends to make people fold worse and only call with better, wheras if it checks down and you bet the river, there can be no future betting so a jack is more likely to call. You've got to weigh that up on this board with the fact that there are some draws out there.

If you have a strong hand the question often isn't if you should bet or not. You should bet, but you just have to be able to find a b/f given an unexpected raise. You can't NOT bet for fear of being raised.

Hand 1 .
I raise 6bb pre , he's a loose fish who 3bets a decent amount so if he wants to 3b i'm willing to get it all in against him but i'm not really expecting him to limp 3bet just to call and see a flop. When the flop hits like that i'm playing for stacks against this guy, he's calling flop with loads of worse aces , loads of gutshots. Don't put him on AK,AQ,AJ,AT as he'd raise them pre.Cbet flop 15bb, dont see a Q helping him so cbet turn 40bb into 43.5bb pot shove the river ~50bb into 123bb pot.Gutshots have missed, A5A6 will have my stack , taking stacks off A2-A4,A8,a9 and probably getting half a stack off all his gutshots that miss. don't expect to see a set as he raises enough to be raising most pairs pre.

Hand 2
my raise pre depends on the stats of everyone else at the table , loads of stations and i'm betting bigger, loads of nits and i'm raising smaller. I'm quite happy cbetting the flop 6bb and if he stays around i'm just shutting down our air beats his air ,but we're never going to bluff him off any piece of this board.

hand 3
i think is fine as played , he's check calling loads of weak aces. he folds enough on the flop to cbet and take it down a lot of the time .we've got showdown value .On the turn we aren't getting better to fold, we can't continue if we get raised , check it back and we may bink another K on the river.can't see him calling a river bet with hands we beat, and he isn't folding any A or 5 and we could get raised by his flush draws that got there.Prime hand for keeping the pot small IMO.