Good triple barrel spot?

Villain is a reg, 200 hands on him, 20/15, 2.7% 3bet, positionally aware, a little weak-tight maybe.

I doubt he's ever flatting a set on this flop as I can have tons of flush draws and I also expect him to raise the nut flush draw on the flop. When I pick up an OESD on the turn and barrel, and he just flats, I'm even more inclined to think he can't have a flush as he'd raise to try and get the money in on the river. I think his most likely hand is a mid-sized overpair to the flop, although a set also seems possible that he was planning to raise the turn with then felt unable to raise when the heart came on the turn, but wasn't ready to fold.

Preflop calling range: [A2s-AJs, 65s-QJs, 86s-KJs, 22-JJ, QJo, KJo+, AJo-AQo]

OPTION 1:

Assume he raises NFDs, but I'll say he can slowplay a set here, and that he calls with OESDs.

Flop calling range: [JJ, TT, 99, 88, 66, 22, KhJh, QhJh, QhTh, JhTh, Jh9h, Th9h, 9h7h, 9c7c, 9d7d]

OTT, I'll say he flats with non-nut flushes, can't fold his sets yet, calls with TT which spiked a set, calls with his straights and calls with JJ again.

Turn calling range: [JJ, TT, 88, 66, 22, KhJh, QhJh, Jh9h, 9h7h, 9c7c, 9d7d]

So OTR he calls with his flushes, folds all his sets and JJ, which means he folds 72% of the time. Even if he can't bring himself to fold TT he still folds 57% of the time.

OPTION 2:

If he raises all sets and NFDs on the flop, he sees turn with [KJhh, QJhh, QThh, JThh, J9hh, T9hh, 97s, JJ, TT, 99] and then his range OTR is 26% flushes and 74% straights, pairs and TT for the turned set. Even if he can't fold a straight, he folds 60% of the time.

So no matter whether he does raise flopped sets or not, as long as he doesn't slowplay too many nut flushes, I think it's a good spot to fire the river.

Thoughts?


Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BTN: $25.35 (101.4 bb)
SB: $25 (100 bb)
BB: $20.13 (80.5 bb)
UTG: $29.37 (117.5 bb)
Hero (MP): $35.69 (142.8 bb)
CO: $25.66 (102.6 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP with J:spade: 9:spade:
UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.75, CO folds, BTN calls $0.75, 2 folds

Flop: ($1.85) 8:heart: 2:diamond: 6:heart: (2 players)
Hero bets $1, BTN calls $1

Turn: ($3.85) T:heart: (2 players)
Hero bets $2.75, BTN calls $2.75

River: ($9.35) K:diamond: (2 players)
Hero bets $7

without any deep analysis I like the idea of barreling off w/your J9s combos here

your value range is approx 88,66 (22 maybe), TT, KK, Ax fds, QhJh, Qh9h, 9h7h etc, AA etc and the board ran out pretty well for your range

but I think you should up size on flop cbet because you will want to bet more with made hands on this texture being oop.

Thanks for the reply M2M, so in general can we say the reason you think it's a good spot for barreling is:

a. I can rep a ton of value hands because my range is very strong here
b. The runout is good for a lot of that value range

As for bigger flop, when you say I'll want to bet my made hands bigger on this texture OOP, you mean because the board is so drawy?

Looks good to me, I like it.