[5NL] AQs facing cold 4bet on crazy table.

UTG - 28/18/6 (3bet) over 205 hands. FT3B 54%

CO - 33/23/16 (3bet) over 188 hands. FT4B 0%, 0/5.

Had seen villain 3bet/call 4bet OOP w/ AQo.

BU - 44/37/25 (3bet) over 143 hands. FT3B 55%, 4bet 35%.

Had seen villain cold 4bet, OOP, w/ 75s.

PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: $14.07
Hero (SB): $26.37
BB: $4.45
UTG: $23.95
MP: $48.13
CO: $30.74

Hero posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has A:heart: Q:heart:

UTG raises to $0.15, fold, CO raises to $0.65, BTN raises to $1.85, Hero ???

Not sure if this is a standard fold or not so thought I would post it. The table was crazy, people were 3betting and 4betting all over the place.

Is AQs too strong to fold here, even though we hate our position and I'm not even sure how I would play it if I decided to, or do we just wait for a better spot?

So you're thinking of calling OOP with two players who are really aggro left to act behind you?

Seems a solid idea.

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Originally Posted by ImSavy

So you're thinking of calling OOP with two players who are really aggro left to act behind you?

Seems a solid idea.

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I didn't realize I had said I wanted to call anywhere in my post...

Since you're deep with a very nice hand, more for the nut flush capability than the tptk capability, calling is a possibility, but Savvy has a point. You're not closing the action and that sucks. What's your feel about the effect of you flatting the 4bet? Would it incite the crazies even more or calm them down?

I would fold to this action though. The reason is that it looks like I could be facing a commitment decision preflop, and I am not commited with AQs 300 blinds deep. So I prefer folding but I don't hate hate calling.

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Originally Posted by Cobra_1878

I didn't realize I had said I wanted to call anywhere in my post...

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Do you want to 5bet/fold or do you want to GII pre ridiculously deep?

I'm assuming you can do equity calculations so I'm not really sure why you'd ask that.

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Originally Posted by ImSavy

Do you want to 5bet/fold or do you want to GII pre ridiculously deep?

I'm assuming you can do equity calculations so I'm not really sure why you'd ask that.

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I stated in my OP that I wasn't sure how best to play the hand if I did decide to play. That's why I have posted it.

I also cannot do equity calculations.

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Originally Posted by Cobra_1878

I also cannot do equity calculations.

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I've shown you how to do equity calcs, Cobra. I'd gladly show you again. I could tell you how to set up a spreadsheet in a few lines that calc'ed the equities for you.

Really, though... I have to ask you:
Why you are so dedicated to playing online poker, if you cannot learn this?

Understanding equity is fundamental to making quality poker decisions.

Even if you have that disorder that makes you unable to perform simple arithmetic (discalcula or something), you can memorize the steps of an equity calc and plug that info into a calculator or spreadsheet.

folding this hand so deep makes my head explode

you could probably even 5b this hand for value

Wow this is an unusual spot. With 100bb stacks I'd shove, but cold 5bet/call this deep seems to be overvaluing our hand even vs these guys. This deep I really want to call, but then we are totally OOP and hate life if either of the other two shove or call.

I think I'd just fold :(.

If I've seen them getting it in with terribad hands pre, then that would probably skew my decision into a 5b. I really don't like a call with so many left to act and the worst position at the table.


@Cobra - Your biggest leak right now is probably that you don't understand equity calculations. I would seriously recommend taking a week off of playing and spending that hour (or whatever) a day practising them until you figure it out. This would help your understanding of poker dramatically if you did, and I'm sure there are plenty of FTRers who would be willing to help.

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Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

I've shown you how to do equity calcs, Cobra. I'd gladly show you again. I could tell you how to set up a spreadsheet in a few lines that calc'ed the equities for you.

Really, though... I have to ask you:
Why you are so dedicated to playing online poker, if you cannot learn this?

Understanding equity is fundamental to making quality poker decisions.

Even if you have that disorder that makes you unable to perform simple arithmetic (discalcula or something), you can memorize the steps of an equity calc and plug that info into a calculator or spreadsheet.

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This is going to sound strange but I actually like Maths; my mental arithmetic (and a lot of other Maths related topics) is really, really good. It's just when it comes to Algebra and sorting out sums/equations that involve brackets I just can't seem to wrap my head around it. I would be more than happy to give it another go if you want to show me MMM?

I am dedicated because I love playing poker. I realize that equity is ridiculously important in poker it's just something that I struggle with.

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Originally Posted by bikes

folding this hand so deep makes my head explode

you could probably even 5b this hand for value

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Are you planning on 5b/folding Bikes?

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Originally Posted by Cobra_1878

This is going to sound strange but I actually like Maths; my mental arithmetic (and a lot of other Maths related topics) is really, really good. It's just when it comes to Algebra and sorting out sums/equations that involve brackets I just can't seem to wrap my head around it. I would be more than happy to give it another go if you want to show me MMM?

I am dedicated because I love playing poker. I realize that equity is ridiculously important in poker it's just something that I struggle with.

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OK, so MMM might be able to explain it even better, but here's my stab at doing it without any unnecessary brackets:

If villain never folds, so he either calls and we win, or he calls and we lose, then say we're 100bb deep each, and no-one else is involved in the pot (let's say we're the SB and BB) so we don't have to worry about any other bets that have gone in, or the blinds, so the pot is always 200bb.

If we win, we win 100bb

If we lose, we lose 100bb

If our equity is 50%, then 50% of the time we win, and 50% of the time we lose, so over time, we break even. Another way to look at this is to say that each time a 200bb pot takes place, we "win" 50% of it (100bb), which also says we break even - we shoved in 100bb, and we "won" back 100bb of expected value (even if on this particular occasion we either got 0 back, or 200bb).

Say our equity is 25% instead, now we win 100bb one quarter of the time, and three quarters of the time we lose 100bb. So in four repeats of this scenario we'll lose a net 200bb, so on each of the occasions we'll lose an average of 50bb. We shove in 100bb, so does villain, there is a 200bb pot, and our equity share (25%) of that pot is 50bb, which means we lost 50bb (because we shoved in 100bb, to get back 50bb).

So let's take it a stage further. We win the proportion of the time that we have the equity to match (half the time if we have 50% equity, a quarter of the time if we have 25% equity, 3/4 of the time if we have 75% equity etc. etc.). So if we use E for equity, then we lose 1-E of the time (ie. if E=0.25 meaning we have 25% equity and win a quarter of the time, then we lose 1-E=0.75 which is 75% of the time).

If we're analysing shoving, then when we win, we win the current pot plus the remaining effective stack, and when we lose, we lose the remaining stack. That is to say, if there's money already in the pot, then it's no-ones money any more - it's already in the middle, so if we shove, get called and lose, all we lost by doing that was whatever we shoved - the rest was already lost. If we shove, get called and win, then what we actually win is whatever was in the pot when we shoved and also what got called (the effective stack at the time of shoving).

To put that in algebra form, when we win, we win P+S (pot+stack), and when we lose we lose S (stack).

So, if villain ALWAYS calls, the total EV of shoving is:

win% * P+S - lose% * S

Ie. some percentage of the time we win P+S, and some percentage of the time we lose S. win% is just our equity. lose% is every time we don't win, ie. 1-E. So we can rewrite that as:

E*(P+S) - (1-E)*S

That's the total EV of shoving and always getting called. It's what we win (or lose) on average each time we shove and are called.

But the other way we can win the pot is that we shove and he folds. So if that happens, we just win P (the pot at the time we shove). So the bit of the EV that comes from him folding is just:

%fold * P

But he doesn't always fold. So some percentage of the time he folds, and the rest he calls. We'll call the percentage of the time he folds FE for fold-equity, so eg. FE=0.3 says that he folds 30% of the time, so then he calls (1-FE)=0.7 70% of the time. He either calls or folds - they must add up to 1, so he calls with frequency 1-FE.

So we stand to win P * FE because he folds (the pot, times the percentage of the time he folds), the rest of the time (1-FE) we'll get called and the bit of the equation further up this post applies.

So

FE * P
+
(1-FE) * (E*(P+S) - (1-E)*S)

Or, to reword that in english:

The % of the time he folds (FE) we win the current (small) pot (P)
+
The rest of the time he calls (1-FE) and we win/lose according to our equity share in the big pot (E*(P+S) - (1-E)*S)

I dunno, it's hard to explain it entirely without brackets. Hopefully that might make it a bit clearer.

The definition of expected value for any decision is the probability-weighted average of all possible outcomes. It's not just a poker concept.

Boris explained it pretty good, but I'd like to add some stuff:

Suppose villain bets 75 into 100 on the river and you call. If you win, you win 175. If you lose, you lose 75. Money already in the pot doesn't belong to you. You can't lose it. In particular the EV of folding is always zero.

Multi-street EV calculations are extremely complicated, because they depend on what happens on later streets, and that's a lot of possibilities. So people usually do EV calcs just for all-in decisions where there are no later decisions.

Like Boris said, there are two kinds of equity: fold equity and pot equity. When people just say 'equity', they mean pot equity which is also called hot-and-cold equity.

If you bet or raise, the percentage of time villain folds is your fold equity. This is the same thing as the percentage of hand combos in his range he will not continue with.

If you and villain got all-in right now, the percentage of time your hand wins against his range is your pot equity. This is the percentage you get from equilab or pokerstove.

Your fold equity and pot equity make up the value of your hand. If you have a lot of either, or a decent amount of both, then you should keep betting. If you don't have any of either, you should fold.

Most training sites will have a video series on poker math too. DeucesCracked has The Math of NLHE by Wiltontilt. DC has a free one week trial. And DragTheBar has a series called Poker by Number that I think is free to watch if you just register. Once you do a couple of EV calcs they'll seem easy but it is confusing at first.

Boris really beat me to it, there. If nothing else, it lays the foundation and vocabulary of our discussion.

This is our little tidbit to memorize or create a spreadsheet for:

F*P + (1 - F)*[E*(P + S) - (1 - E)*S]

This is the equation that tells us the EV of Hero raising all-in.

F is the number of combos that Villain folds divided by the total number of combos Villain currently holds.
E is the equity (found using equilab or something similar) of Hero's hand vs. Villain's calling range.
P is the amount of the pot (including any bet Hero may be facing)
S is the amount that is currently in Villain's stack (or Hero's stack, if Villain has more chips).

So, Cobra... what parts make sense and what parts don't?

FUN FACT: People love to say, "You never get called by worse, so don't bet."
Here's an example of when that's not true:
Assume that the value of E in the above equation is 0, meaning Hero always loses when he shoves and is called.

EV = F*P + (1 - F)*[0*(P + S) - (1 - 0)*S]
EV = F*P + (1 - F)*(-S)
EV = F*P - (1 - F)*S

So, if F*P is greater than (1 - F)*S, then the EV is greater than 0; it is +EV to shove.


Let's rock it a bit harder, eh? Set EV > 0
This will tell us the category of situations in which it is always +EV to shove. (Not necessarily the most +EV line.)

EV = F*P - (1 - F)*S > 0
F*P - (1 - F)*S > 0
F*P - S + F*S > 0
F*P + F*S - S > 0
F*(P + S) - S > 0
F*(P + S) > S
F > S/(P + S)

Hmm... something is familiar about that equation. Remember that we're using S to represent the ESS, or the bet size of the shove.
S/(P + S)
is the same thing as
bet/(bet + pot)
which is the infamous alpha value.
So this
F > S/(P + S)
means
F > alpha
That is to say, "If fold equity is greater than the alpha value, then it is a +EV shove."

Calling Fold Equity FE, especially when you have Equity as E, has got to be the most ridiculous bit of algebra that I regularly see people do.

Call it F or any other single variable like any other normal person would but not two letters.

Actually mad.

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Originally Posted by ImSavy

Calling Fold Equity FE, especially when you have Equity as E, has got to be the most ridiculous bit of algebra that I regularly see people do.

Call it F or any other single variable like any other normal person would but not two letters.

Actually mad.

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Fixed
I agree, actually. I was just continuing the notation introduced ITT.

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Originally Posted by Pelion

@Cobra - Your biggest leak right now is probably that you don't understand equity calculations. I would seriously recommend taking a week off of playing and spending that hour (or whatever) a day practising them until you figure it out. This would help your understanding of poker dramatically if you did, and I'm sure there are plenty of FTRers who would be willing to help.

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Definitely +1 to this.

As for the hand, I think I would only consider anything OTHER than fold if UTG opens wide EP. What is UTG's EP open?

I think the prospect of playing a cold 5b pot, OOP, when button seems likely to peel us off this deep kinda sucks.

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Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

Boris really beat me to it, there. If nothing else, it lays the foundation and vocabulary of our discussion.

This is our little tidbit to memorize or create a spreadsheet for:

F*P + (1 - F)*[E*(P + S) - (1 - E)*S]

This is the equation that tells us the EV of Hero raising all-in.

F is the number of combos that Villain folds divided by the total number of combos Villain currently holds.
E is the equity (found using equilab or something similar) of Hero's hand vs. Villain's calling range.
P is the amount of the pot (including any bet Hero may be facing)
S is the amount that is currently in Villain's stack (or Hero's stack, if Villain has more chips).

So, Cobra... what parts make sense and what parts don't?

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I'm really not sure, could you or Boris maybe post an example hand (using numbers instead of letters) to see if that helps a bit?

I don't see how you're supposed to be able to do all that in your head at the table either. Seems really unnecessary.

Learn simple algebra or give up on poker. It's not hard to do, just do it.

And you don't do it at the table, you do it enough away from the table to have a rough idea of the percentages. The only thing you really need to be able to do at the table is figure out pot odds and count combos.

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Originally Posted by Cobra_1878

I'm really not sure, could you or Boris maybe post an example hand (using numbers instead of letters) to see if that helps a bit?

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How about, instead, YOU come up with an example.
In this example, you are trying to decide if it's +EV to shove.

What you need to do the calculation:
1) What is Villain's range before you shove (How many combos)?
2) What is Villain's range to call your shove (How many combos)?
3) What is your equity against Villain's calling range?
4) What is the size of the pot before you shove (including any bets you are facing).
5) What is the amount that Villain will call if you shove? (ESS)

You can do this at any point in a hand, so you can have board cards if you like.

Provide the example, and we'll walk you through the calc. We can do as many examples as you like.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Cobra_1878

I don't see how you're supposed to be able to do all that in your head at the table either. Seems really unnecessary.

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You can't do it in your head at the table unless you're rain man. It's the off the table work that gives you a feel for it like Savy said.

As MMM suggested, why don't you give us an example hand, try and start the calculation for yourself, post how far you get and we'll help you through it.

MMM and Boris have a good point about trying the calcs yourself but I already did this. So...

Here's an example:

Say you're heads up. You raised 3 bb with JJ and villain 3bet you 3x.

There's 12 blinds in the pot. You have 97 blinds behind and villain has 91. You want to know the EV of shoving.

Say you know villain only 3bets AK and QQ+, and he'll fold AK and QQ to a shove but call with KK+.

There are 16 hand combos of AK and 6 hand combos for each of QQ thru AA. That's a total of 34 hand combos.

When you jam, he folds 22 of those hand combos, the 16 AK and the 6 QQ. So 22/34 = 65% is your fold equity for shoving. Villain will fold to the shove 65% of the time.

And when that happens you win the money currently in the pot which is 12 blinds. You don't win the uncalled bet. That's just returned to you.

When villain calls he'll have KK or AA against your JJ. Your equity when called is 19%:

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Equity Win Tie
MP2 81.34% 81.13% 0.21% { KK+ }
MP3 18.66% 18.45% 0.21% { JJ }

When you shove and get called, you will win 12 + 91 = 103 blinds, the money already in the pot plus villain's call, 19% of the time. And you will lose 97 blinds, your current bet, 81% of the time.

And this situation occurs 12 out of 34 times or 35% of the time because villain has 34 hand combos in his range and he folds 22 of them and calls with 12 of them. Of course this is just 1 minus your fold equity.

So putting it all together, the EV of a shove is:

EV(shove) =

fold equity * pot, villain folds
- % he calls * % he wins * your bet, villain calls and wins
+ % he calls * % you win * (pot + his call), villain calls and you win

=
.65 * 12
- .35 * .81 * 97
+ .35 * .19 * 103

= 7.8 - 27.5 + 6.8
= -12.9 blinds

So that's a bad shove against someone so tight. Over many many hands this play will eventually cost you an average of 13 blinds per play.

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Notice how the probabilities line up:

He either folds or calls. So those probabilities have to add up to 1. Those are the 65% and the 35% and they do add up to 1.

When he calls, and we're in the 35% case, villain either wins or loses. So the probabilities of winning and losing have to add up to 1. Those probabilities are 19% and 81% and they do add up to 1. But those possibilities only occur when villain calls, so those terms are multiplied by the 35%.

When villain folds, the 65% case, there are no sub cases. The hand is finished. So that case gets only one term.

---------------------------------------------------

This is the standard way to do EV calcs: your hand vs villain's range. The EV that you get is sometimes called Sklansky bucks.

You could also do the same calculation using villain's exact hand (if you knew it) vs your range in that spot. That's called G-bucks after Phil Galfond. It's a different way of estimating the value of a move.

This table looks fun. I'm calling. Folding seems super standard against regs or unknowns, but these guys are wild and probably don't see it as unusual when the sb cold calls a 4bet here. 5b seems thin value but I see bikes' point. I just don't expect us to narrow it to HU very often when we 5b, so I anticipate many awkward flop spots when called, and obv it's hard to continue when someone 6bets. So yeah call > fold > 5b/f imo

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Originally Posted by ImSavy

So you're thinking of calling OOP with two players who are really aggro left to act behind you?

Seems a solid idea.

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Why so mad bro? No need to be so sarcastic

Always a need to be sarcastic. And explaining the logic like that can be helpful as he may not have thought of it like that, wasn't here but is sometimes.

I think I love savy. Hes so full of youthful vigour and righteousness. Long live yr energy and assuredness and also bless how fucking entertaining you certainly are.

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Originally Posted by kickass

I think I love savy. Hes so full of youthful vigour and righteousness. Long live yr energy and assuredness and also bless how fucking entertaining you certainly are.

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He speaks with the confidence and conviction of a veteran nosebleed player but posts 5NL hands. I applaud his confidence.

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Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

How about, instead, YOU come up with an example.
In this example, you are trying to decide if it's +EV to shove.

What you need to do the calculation:
1) What is Villain's range before you shove (How many combos)?
2) What is Villain's range to call your shove (How many combos)?
3) What is your equity against Villain's calling range?
4) What is the size of the pot before you shove (including any bets you are facing).
5) What is the amount that Villain will call if you shove? (ESS)

You can do this at any point in a hand, so you can have board cards if you like.

Provide the example, and we'll walk you through the calc. We can do as many examples as you like.

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C'mon. Cobra. Do this.

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Originally Posted by d0zer

He speaks with the confidence and conviction of a veteran nosebleed player but posts 5NL hands. I applaud his confidence.

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I'm not good by any means, but I'm better than that.