Blind defence - flop texture analysis
Context: 25NL, 6max cash. BTN open, BB defence.
I posted about my terrible BB stats in http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...bb-195772.html so I decided it was time to do some proper work on my blinds play. I figured this might be useful for others too, and I'd also like feedback on my range assignments, assumptions etc.
I'll probably do this again for BB v CO opens, and SB v BTN & CO opens at some point soon. For now, I'm just looking at BB v BTN.
To get some baseline numbers and construct some typical ranges, I looked in my database. The average button steal frequency was 35%. When those button opens were 3bet, 56% of the time the button folded, 36% of the time they called and the remaining 8% of the time they 4bet.
That gives a total 4bet range of 3% (8% of the 35% of hands they opened at all) for a "typical" button. This is about [QQ+, AQs+, AKo], but I'm going to widen that just a little to [QQ+, AQ+, KQs] since I think my sample is small and in BTN v Blind battles, people are definitely stacking off with AQ, and with some non-zero frequency with KQ so I just included KQs and not KQo in the 4bet range.
Therefore if BTN calls a 3bet, he has a wide, weak and capped range [3%-23%] on average. [66-JJ, A2s-AJs, K7s-KJs, Q8s+, J9s+, T9s, JTo, QTo+, K9o+, A7o+]
http://i38.photobucket.com/albums/e1...pse81f6e54.jpg
So we want to be 3betting a range that has decent equity against this continuing range.
First, let's look at what has at least 50% preflop equity when the button is opening 35% of hands:
[22+,A2s+,K9s+,Q8s+,J7s+,T7s+,96s+,85s+,75s+,65s,A4 o+,K9o+,Q9o+,J9o+,T9o]
http://i38.photobucket.com/albums/e1...psaab4fc2b.jpg
So to construct our calling range, we're going to want to remove a lot of the thick value broadways and pairs that he'll be calling our 3bets for value with when he has a wide, weak range. That will weaken our calling range so we have to narrow it a bit to make up for that, so we're calling with enough strength to play against him postflop, but not giving up value by calling with the hands we really want to be able to 3bet for value.
We also want to leave plenty of strong hands over for the 3bet range, so that we can have plenty of bluffs without the 3bet range becoming overly weighted towards bluffs.
One calling range that comprises 10.7% of hands (so we'll call nearly 1/3 of the 35% of the time that the button gets opened) and has just over 51% equity against his button opening range is [88-TT, A9s-AJs, KTs-KTs, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, JTo, QTo+, KTo, ATo-AJo] - I like having some bigger aces in here because even BTN vs Blind I don't think people call 3bets so wide with dominated aces because they know how ace heavy 3bet ranges are, tending to call more with something like K8s than they will with A9o.
http://i38.photobucket.com/albums/e1...psb46edfe7.jpg
That's 10.6% of starting hands, meaning if BTN opens with 35% of hands, when he opens there's a 30% chance we call.
So we now have a calling range, so our 3bet range is going to be all the big hands that are missing from the top left corner in the above range, plus some bluffing hands with reasonable postflop playability.
The value hands [AA-JJ, AQs+, KJs+, KJo+, AQo+] comprise 6.6% of hands, so mixing in something like [A2s-A5s, 74s-96s, 64s-86s, 54s-76s] gives us 10.6% of starting hands again, so now when he opens there's also a 30% chance we 3bet. About 2/3 of the time when we 3bet it's with a value hand, and one third of the time it's with a bluff.
Here's our overall 3bet range with the bluffs in green and the value hands in red:
http://i38.photobucket.com/albums/e1...pse2bcf777.jpg
And here's our continuing range in it's entirety, with calling hands in blue:
http://i38.photobucket.com/albums/e1...psf19bb189.jpg
Now lets look at how our and villains ranges hit various flop textures in single raised and 3bet pots.
Flop textures:
• High, connected eg. AQTr, KQTtt
Single raised pots:
On AQTrr we have top pair or better or a good draw 41% of the time, wheras villain has the same 47% of the time. We have 56% overall equity, but even BTN v Blind this is a dangerous texture and we should tread carefully if we're not to end up giving him too little credit.
When it's not ace high, this texture absolutely smashes us - we have 65% overall equity, and wheras willain has top pair or better or a good draw 42% of the time, we have it 67%.
In short, we have good equity on these flops, and there's little need to bluff, and few opportunities to do so even if we needed to.
In a single raised pot, If we don't hit these flops, we should check/fold.
3bet pots:
Neither us nor villain have a big advantage here, so nothing really changes vs. single raised pots. Given that we've lowered the SPR by 3betting, if we hit hard we should probably be happy to stack off as quickly as possible if we slam the flop for 2pr or better, and if we have a great draw we can happily get it in too, we should be mindful of the need to stack off quickly if we do hit hard so we don't have to play the turn OOP, but really there's nothing too out of the ordinary here.
• 2 high, one rag
Eg. AJ7tt, QJ7r
Single raised pots:
On AJ7tt were pretty much flipping equity wise, but the way our and villains ranges hit the flop are very different. For villain, he has top pair or better 34% of the time, and at least middle pair 51% of the time. We can't stab at this. We only hit the flop for top pair or better 21% of the time but 45% of the time we have at least middle pair, so unless there's a ton of action we have a good chance at showdown. We can probably c/c this flop with middle pair or better, to re-evaluate the turn.
On QJ7r things change quite a bit, probably because it's a non ace-high flop, now we have 58% overall equity, and BTN hits the flop for top pair or better or an OESD 28% of the time, and middle pair or better or an OESD 42% of the time. For us it's 39%/63%, so we pretty much smash this.
Again though, there's not enough he's folding for us to be stabbing OOP, so I think if we don't hit these flops we should just give up.
3bet pots:
This is a tough spot. Not much changes in our relative hand strength vs the situation in a single raised pots, but the lower SPR favours hot/cold hands, and I don't really know what to do here with middle pair - OOP, I think we just have to be prepared to give it up, even if that's exploitable, I don't think we should be stacking off with middle pair here, and in a 3bet pot if a decent sized flop bet goes in we're going to find ourselves pretty commited to doing just that on the turn quite often. OTOH, with a great draw here we should definitely get it in, because then we're putting villain in the situation I just referred to when he's often going to be slightly ahead with a mid-strength hand that he can't really call with.
On the ace high flop, we can't really stab effectively, but I think there's an argument for stabbing at something non-ace high of this texture. Just like in the single raise pot, he hits QJ7r for second pair or better or an OESD 45% of the time, but middle pair is 18% of that, so his strong fit hands are only 27% of his range and depending on his tendencies, he may often not be willing to continue in a 3bet pot with second pair with the prospect of a turn shove looming large.
• 1 high, 2 connected mid
Eg. A87tt, Q93r
Single raised pots:
On A87tt we have poor equity with 44%. Top pair or better or a good draw comprise 43% of villains range, for us it's only 33%. This pattern that is developing of ace-high flops being bad for us in single raised pots is presumably because of all the strong aces that we kept out of our calling range so as to 3bet them. Again, it doesn't look great to bluff at OOP.
On Q93r our equity is 54%. Button really misses this texture badly, having top pair or better or a good draw only 24% of the time, and a weaker fit like mid pair or better or a draw about 41% of the time. We hit the flop strongly 38% of the time, and for middle pair or better 54%. When we don't hit the flop, villains range hits this texture so poorly that even though it looks kind of drawy, we can probably take a stab at the flop.
3bet pots:
On A87tt the tendency for ace high flops to be bad for us doesn't seem to exist in the 3bet pots because of all our strong aces in the 3bet range. We basically flip on this texture, both hitting it about 40% of the time for a good draw, top pair or better. He doesn't have enough air for stabbing OOP to be good, so when we brick I think we just check it down.
Q93r is somewhat different in that although we both hit it equally, we both hit it equally badly - it's much better to stab at this, and if we're called it's often going to be a weakish made hand like a PP or 9x which can't take turn pressure, so we can shove some turns.
• 1 high, 2 connected low
Eg. A25tt, K34tt
Single raised pots:
Again, A25tt doesn't work so well for us, and villain has 55% equity. Top pair or better or a good draw comprise 37% of his range. Including his pocket overpairs to the low cards, he'll continue on the flop 50% of the time. For us those numbers are 28%/42%. Check/giveup.
K34tt gives us about 48% equity, respectively for TP+ and TP+PP>44 villain hits 25%/36% and we hit 18%/32%. The flop hits us both quite weakly, and unless we think he will station us down with his small PP we can try stabbing at the flop, and maybe even barreling favourable turns - only about half of his made hands here are top pair or better, he doesn't have too many draws though.
3bet pots:
Again we flip on A25tt equity and range wise, both hitting it for something we might continue with about 50% of the time, but a third of that continuing range is PP 66+. Still, these hands are probably not folding for one bet, and 2/3 of his flop calling range is an ace or better, so I think we just give up when we don't hit this.
K34tt is massively different, here we hit for TP+ or a good draw 50% of the time, and villain only hits 25%. We won't get a lot of value here most of the time when we make a hand, so when we don't we need to be stabbing a lot of make up for that.
• mid connected
eg. JT9r, T98tt
Single raised pots:
On wet boards like this, we smash it. On JT9r we have 64% equity, having TP+ or a good draw 68% of the time. Villain has the same 50% of the time. We can't mess about on this texture - either we have a hand and we hope he has something to pay us off with, or we give up. I think we must also tread carefully and not be suckered into believing that just because it's BTN vs BB that relative hand strengths on this texture aren't still considerably reduced.
On T98tt it's the same story, just even more exaggerated - now we have TP+ or a good draw 91% of the time. Much of that is just TPGK though which on this texture might as well be queen high.
3bet pots:
Villains somewhat narrowed range after we 3bet him preflop has closed the gap on this texture even further, now we're pretty much flipping. On T98tt we're actually getting crushed. These boards look scary, and they should - we just need to give up here mostly, even if we make TP, since trying to play it OOP vs. such a strong range on this board seems suicidal.
• 2 mid, 1 low
Eg. J83r, 984tt
Single raised pots:
On J83r we have an equity advantage with 55%. Relative hand strength are more normal here, and we hit hard with TP+ or a good draw 39% of the time to villains 26%. 984tt tilts the balance a little more towards villain. On either of these textures, I think we can play pretty straightforwardly if we make a hand, as neither of us has a marked advantage, but if we miss entirely I think we can stab at these flops, possibly even barreling some turns if we think villain will call with bare overs which he will have quite a lot of. Also, a lot of what he flats the flop with is weakish made hands or OK draws which can fold to turn pressure.
3bet pots:
We don't hit so hard here when we 3bet and a lot of our Jx and drawing hands are in our calling range. Neither of us really hits this at all in a 3bet pot, so it's a great texture to stab at. In contrast to a single raised pot though, I don't think we should every barrel here because the board just doesn't look scary and we rep so narrow, so I doubt TPGK or even TPWK is folding much.
• 1 mid, 2 low connected
Eg. J54r, 952tt
Single raised pots:
On these bone-dry boards, the strength of our preflop range vs villains shows, since neither of us hit the flop much at all as you'd expect. On J54r TP+ is 32% of our range vs 22% of villains. If he'll get stubborn with a pocket overpair to the low board cards, he can call the flop only 30% of the time. I think we stab a ton on this texture, but basically give up after the flop, since if he does call it's quite likely he holds a hand that he's not folding on the turn - most of his flop calls will be top pair.
952tt favours villains a little, 26% vs 19% good flop fits, but again it's rare for either of us to make anything, so we should be very stabby on these dry flops.
3bet pots:
We smash this equity wise with 60%, and we hit for TP+ or a good draw much more often than villain (30% vs 20%), but again it's not like either of us are going to hit to very often. Very stabby is the name of the game here.
• low mid, low connected
Eg. 652tt, 643r
Single raised pots:
Even those these flops are connected, again neither of us is making much at all here. Of course there are a few more pocket overpairs to the board, but our stronger range vs villain ensures that it's more often us with the showdown hand anyway. Just like the above texture, we should be extremely stabby on this texture, and I think given that lots of flop calls are going to be small overpairs to the board, we can barrel scary looking turns.
3bet pots:
Our stronger 3bet range with the big PP shines here, and our equity is 65%. We hit for an overpair, better or a gutter 40% of the time while villain only does so 25%.
I don't think we should stab here very much in 3bet pots though, since villain can get stubborn with smallish overpairs to the board. It's probably best just to take the value we get when he has a small overpair and we have a big one, and try to check it down the rest of the time - our range is very strong here anyway, and we will often win at showdown if it does check down.
• low connected
Eg. 245r, 345tt
Single raised pots:
Like the flops above, but this time with a wheel draw possible, so villain can have quite a lot of gutters with his ace-heavy opening range. If we're going to stab, it's probably best to do it on the turn or river so we don't end up spewing in a big pot. Neither of us are going to make a hand much here, but unless villain is quite tight he's probably not folding a gutter and may also feel he has some showdown value with the ace-high against our bluffs.
3bet pots:
Loads of bare aces for both us and villain here, so stabbing can be good or bad, I can't decide - on the one hand, if we stab and he comes along, we'll often both brick the draw then we'll win at showdown because of our stronger preflop range of big aces and when we do hit the draw we'll chop a lot. If we don't stab, we can just show down and often win with the better ace high. I think we should probably c/f flop, then stab at scary turns.
• paired
Eg. JJ4tt, 559r
Single raised pots:
Preflop hand values don't really change here, because it's so hard for either of us to hit the flop. Our stronger preflop range results in us having a decent equity advantage with 57%, and I think a lot of villains realise just how full of shit betting this texture looks most of the time, so I don't think we should stab too much. A flop C/R seems good if villain is stabby, since again it's so hard for him to have anything he can continue with here.
559r actually favours villain a bit more than JJ4tt since he has more over-PP to the board on the low, paired flop, but I don't think it makes so much difference and we can probably still C/R and get a ton of folds from [66-99] and the overcards he stabs with.
3bet pots:
Again, this flop hits so little that we basically see the flop with the same hand strengths we had preflop. This time though, in a 3bet pot, the advantage that villain had on the lower paired flop is turned around and now it is us who makes more overpairs to the board. Again, I don't think stabbing with air here is good, if we're going to make a move better to C/R and trap villain in for an extra bet when he take a shot at it.
