AK tptk, go for 3?

villain is 32-10-1 over 168, 29% fold to cbet, 7% raise cbet (faced 14 cbets). Loose-passive with a fold button
river bet fold and get it over with? or check it back?
flop and turn sizing?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from http://flopturnriver.com

BB ($37.16)
UTG ($25)
UTG+1 ($25)
Hero (MP1) ($114.25)
MP2 ($28.97)
CO ($8.75)
Button ($26.28)
SB ($35.16)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A:spade:, K:heart:
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.85, MP2 calls $0.85, 3 folds, BB calls $0.60

Flop: ($2.65) 8:spade:, A:club:, 6:diamond: (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2.10, 1 fold, BB calls $2.10

Turn: ($6.85) J:club: (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $5, BB calls $5

River: ($16.85) 9:spade: (2 players)
BB checks,

I personally b/f $8.5

Why did you stop giving information about villain's ranges after the flop, but then ask question about the turn and river?

It looks like Villain is willing to call/float pretty liberally OTF. So OTT, he can have any sets, any 2-pr except J6, KK,QQ,TT,99,77, Kx FD's and mid/low pr + FD's, J8s,J9s,JT+,T9,98,97,87,76,75,etc.

That runout hits his flop continuing range pretty hard, but he has lots of pair and pair+draw type hands that missed, too.

If I had any notion of how this villain would play 2-pair hands, I could tell you whether there's value in a b/f vs a c.

Against this player I like a river b/f of about 2/3 pot. Fire about $10. If he's suspicious and is hero calling you down you want to make it look like you're trying to make it look scary. You could be beat but not firing three seems like scared play results-orientedness.

On the flop, I'd put his range at any pair, any draw. So 97s suited and even smaller pocket pairs are possible, but I would weight his range towards T9s and Ax with AT-AK being most likely, and you're still ahead of that range. AQ should call all three streets. AT might too.

Strangely enough I had a hand just like this recently where I had AJ and called down three streets after turning top two while villain had AK, but my stats are not so passive.

And since villain is passive-ish, I like the flop and turn sizing.

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: 6h8sAcJc9s
Equity Win Tie
MP2 59.65% 54.39% 5.26% { AsKh }
MP3 40.35% 35.09% 5.26% { JJ+, 88, 66, A9s+, T9s, 97s, 86s, ATo+ }

Quote:

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Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

It looks like Villain is willing to call/float pretty liberally OTF. So OTT, he can have any sets, any 2-pr except J6, KK,QQ

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You really think he can have hands like KK QQ in the BB as played?

Looks like pretty thick value, I b/f about $10.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by jackvance

You really think he can have hands like KK QQ in the BB as played?

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I think with a 1% 3-bet over a sample of 100, it's not inconceivable that Villain slow-plays KK,QQ at least some portion of the time, and maybe even AA, but I find that less common.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

Why did you stop giving information about villain's ranges after the flop, but then ask question about the turn and river?

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< 200 hands on villain so i'm asking for people's thoughts on turn and river = implicit in that is their thoughts on villain's range. Basically want people's thoughts on what he can have left once we get to the river and what % of that range i beat.

preflop i put him on [Axs, suited connectors and 1-gappers, 22-88].
flop i think he check calls Axs, gutters and oesds, sets
turn narrows his range cos he dumps some gutters that didn't gain some draws, dumps some Axs, plus there is an increased chance of check-bomb from sets cos of the two clubs on the board. I bet reasonably big on the turn cos there is a good chance he calls some draw plus pair type hands that gained something on that card.
river obv his draws don't call if i bet, and better doesn't fold. Some of his worse hands call, asking for advice on sizing to maximise this if i bet, or vs checking back

that better.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by daven

< 200 hands on villain so i'm asking for people's thoughts on turn and river = implicit in that is their thoughts on villain's range. Basically want people's thoughts on what he can have left once we get to the river and what % of that range i beat.

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The reason this bothers me (and I'm not claiming to be right) is that "they" have 0 info about Villain other than what's in OP. So by omitting that information and encouraging speculation, you get terse advice, based on unnamed assumptions about what "they" have guessed.

E.g. caddie444 and BorisTheSpider gave you an answer, but no rationale. At best you can learn to mimic their play in this spot, but you can't learn what motivated their line and evaluate its merits against other lines. (OK, maybe you can, but I can't.)

To me, this kind of reply is about as helpful as a pat on the back. It buoys my confidence, but doesn't prepare me for the future. I can't fault them for an unjustified answer, as your question just begs unjustified answers.


Even a vague comment about Villain's assumed strengths/leaks is good info. After 168 hands, you must've seen Villain do 1 or 2 things OTT or OTR that caught your attention. Those bits of information are hugely important to how I play my game, and what lines I will take. It's not like there's any reason to assume the villains I'm facing on Bovada are playing the same as the villains you're playing. Even if they were, there is enough variation in post flop play styles and leaks, that I don't think a broad generalization helps too much.

In lieu of the relevant info, I feel like I'd need to leave a wall of text to cover the possibilities and why should I bother to put in that effort if the OP didn't? (I mean look at the length of my posts, as it is... if I tried to cover multiple contingencies, they'd be much longer)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by daven

preflop i put him on [Axs, suited connectors and 1-gappers, 22-88].

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I know it could be an anomaly that drove Villain's 3-bet down to 1%, but even still, I think it's prudent to put at least some combos of { 99+,AQ- } in his calling range, pre.

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Originally Posted by daven

flop i think he check calls Axs, gutters and oesds, sets

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So, you're saying that Villain may not even have a c/r range on this board? I didn't assume that when you said loose passive w/ a fold button. (Maybe I should have... in retrospect I should have.)
Anyway, this takes J9.. in fact all J's out of his range and most of suited broadways that would have picked up a FD OTT.
{ 99-66,AJs-A2s,T8s+,97s+,86s+,75s+,64s+,54s,AQo-ATo }
I gave Villain 99 and some offsuit Ax braodways.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by daven

turn narrows his range cos he dumps some gutters that didn't gain some draws, dumps some Axs, plus there is an increased chance of check-bomb from sets cos of the two clubs on the board. I bet reasonably big on the turn cos there is a good chance he calls some draw plus pair type hands that gained something on that card.

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@ bold. Now I'm 2nd guessing the lack of c/r range OTF. Nonetheless:
The fact that Villain will c/r some range of his strongest hands OTT, and he didn't, caps his strength somewhat and makes it more likely Hero is ahead OTT.
The range of gutters that didn't gain looks like { 54s }.
Villain's range to call OTT:
{ 99,77,AJs-A6s,T8s+,97s+,86s+,75s+,64s+,AQo-ATo }

Taking that range to the river and assuming Villain check's 100%, then Hero's equity against that range is 65%.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by daven

river obv his draws don't call if i bet, and better doesn't fold. Some of his worse hands call, asking for advice on sizing to maximise this if i bet, or vs checking back

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EV of checking back: 65.15% x $16.85 = $10.98

Villain's range to call ~1/2 - 3/4 PSB
{ 99,AJs-A8s,A6s,T8s,97s+,86s,75s,AQo-ATo }
43/66 combos = 34.85% FE
Hero's equity when called: 46.51%

EV of ~1/2 PSB: $8.50
34.85% x $16.85 + 65.15% x (46.51% x $33.85 - 53.49% x -$8.50) = $13.17

EV of ~3/4 PSB: $12.75
34.85% x $16.85 + 65.15% x (46.51% x $42.35 - 53.49% x -$12.75) = $8.93


Bet the smallest you can to get Villain to maintain calling range.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by daven

that better.

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Much better. Thank you. :cool:

thirteen dollars

Quote:

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Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

E.g. caddie444 and BorisTheSpider gave you an answer, but no rationale. At best you can learn to mimic their play in this spot, but you can't learn what motivated their line and evaluate its merits against other lines. (OK, maybe you can, but I can't.)

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I'll try and post a bit more ITT tomorrow, but it's late and I'm tired so I just wanted to reply briefly and say that I think you have a point here. I guess it's not so helpful to post without a rationale.

In short, sometimes it's not as complicated as putting them on a range, and sometimes we don't need to do much (or any) maths - sometimes it's more about a player type, and the overwhelming commonalities that occur within a group of players - I think this applies here.

Villain is loose and passive. A 3:1 VPIP:PFR ratio, never 3bets without a monster, calls too many cbets. About 2/3 of the time, 2 unpaired hole cards are going to miss the flop, so a 30% or so fold to cbet is someone who's continuing a lot with very weak holdings - we can immediately stick them in a bucket called "fish" and assign fish-like behaviours to them, and a surprising majority of the time we'll be right although of course there will be outliers where our initial read was wrong. Over 168 hands that becomes even less likely - VPIP and PFR converge pretty fast.

Against a fish, I think we had best assume, in the absence of other evidence, that all the time they are calling, we should be value betting anything that has good relative strength - OPs hand is good here against a fish most of the time.

If the fish raises, things change dramatically. Passive players are just that - passive, so when they wake up, something is up.

Unless and until they do wake up, I try to value bet them relentlessly so I think we b/f river about half to 2/3 pot, probably nearer half since OP said this fish has a fold button, so we want to get calls from hands that might not call a bigger bet. I also wouldn't want to feel priced in to call a shove, and there's not so much behind.

If you're not going to bet 3 streets on this board when holding TPTK against this kind of player, I think unless there's a very specific reason for that, which won't apply to the vast majority of fish, you'd be missing out on value from all the worse hands most fish will call with.

Dont check