[5NL] KK OOP...3bet pot. River decision.

Villain was 28/22/7 (3bet) over 91 hands. Fold to 3bet 60%, 3/5. Fold to cbet 0%, 0/3.

Had seen villain 4bet and stack off pre with TT in a 3 way pot.

PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: $6.79
CO: $11.90
BTN: $1.42
Hero (SB): $9.08
BB: $3.36
UTG: $4.93

Hero posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has K:heart: K:spade:

fold, fold, CO raises to $0.15, fold, Hero raises to $0.55, fold, CO calls $0.40

Flop: ($1.15, 2 players) 4:club: 7:heart: 5:spade:
Hero bets $0.60, CO calls $0.60

Turn: ($2.35, 2 players) 8:spade:
Hero bets $1.60, CO calls $1.60

River: ($5.55, 2 players) 5:club:
Hero checks, CO bets $3.95, Hero ???

Looking back on the hand, I am not sure I should have checked the river, I think a bet of around $2.90 would have been the better choice.

Now that I have checked, what do I do? I don't think villain has any 6x in his range, he could have 44/77/88, would he bet TT-AA here? The only thing I am pretty sure of is that it's not an outright bluff.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

204 games 0.000 secs 40,800 games/sec

Board: 4c 7h 5s 8s 5c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.412% 52.94% 01.47% 108 3.00 { KK }
Hand 1: 45.588% 44.12% 01.47% 90 3.00 { TT+, 88-77, 44 }

Thoughts?

As played call.

Bet flop bigger because he calls 70 just as much as he calls 60.
Bet turn.
Bet river.

I'd discount AA and QQ though. I imagine he also has some Axs in his range.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by ImSavy

As played call.

Bet flop bigger because he calls 70 just as much as he calls 60.
Bet turn.
Bet river.

I'd discount AA and QQ though. I imagine he also has some Axs in his range.

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Why do you discount AA and QQ? You're expecting him to raise with these hands on flop or turn?

Also, what suited aces are you putting in villain's range that he got to the river with? A7ss?

6x is a small part of his range since I expect a raise on the turn with a str8 and the flop with a set.

I think you played it okay, your line and bet sizing makes it look like you have a scared hand like 99-JJ, AQ+. I expect him to either value bet worse, turn a made hand into a bluff, or bluff his air a lot when you check the river.

However, there is not a whole lot of air in his range unless he floated the flop with Ace high and then picked up a FD on the turn, since it is a 3-bet pot, but I wouldn't be surprised to see 98, 87, 99-QQ. Therefore, I like a bet-fold on the river a lot more since by checking you are giving him the chance to check behind 88-QQ and 98. Although he will likely bet 87 and JJ+, he will almost always call the river with his entire made hand range and will only raise if you are beat. (Unless you have a read that he raises scary boards on the river with air after making crazy floats.. in that case your check-call is fine)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Outlaw

6x is a small part of his range since I expect a raise on the turn with a str8 and the flop with a set.

I think you played it okay, your line and bet sizing makes it look like you have a scared hand like 99-JJ, AQ+. I expect him to either value bet worse, turn a made hand into a bluff, or bluff his air a lot when you check the river.

However, there is not a whole lot of air in his range unless he floated the flop with Ace high and then picked up a FD on the turn, since it is a 3-bet pot, but I wouldn't be surprised to see 98, 87, 99-QQ. Therefore, I like a bet-fold on the river a lot more since by checking you are giving him the chance to check behind 88-QQ and 98. Although he will likely bet 87 and JJ+, he will almost always call the river with his entire made hand range and will only raise if you are beat. (Unless you have a read that he raises scary boards on the river with air after making crazy floats.. in that case your check-call is fine)

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What is it about my sizing that makes it look like scared betting? I thought I was value betting (which makes the check on the river even worse) so I didn't want to go too big.

We need positional awareness stats for every HH at these stakes that involves a reg PFRing. An ATS number here is more important than his 3b, for example.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by surviva316

We need positional awareness stats for every HH at these stakes that involves a reg PFRing. An ATS number here is more important than his 3b, for example.

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I wasn't sure if 91 hands is big enough to post stats about villain's play from each position.

I only put villain's fold to 3bet as I thought it would be relevant. Also, his ATS from CO was 31%, 4/13. His ATS on button was 50%, so definitely a stealer.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Cobra_1878

Why do you discount AA and QQ? You're expecting him to raise with these hands on flop or turn?
?

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Cos Hes likely 4betting or shoving them pre

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Cobra_1878

I wasn't sure if 91 hands is big enough to post stats about villain's play from each position.

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It's not big enough to give too much credit to the actual stats in each position, but it's enough to show whether it's likely that Villain is positionally aware.

At 6-max, somewhere around 120 hands you can start to get a general idea of positional stats. That's roughly 20 hands in each position (tables aren't always full). It's like you only have 20 hands on them (hopefully a familiar benchmark).

Realistically, somewhere around 300 hands on someone and you'll have a pretty good idea of their stats. That's enough to make reasonably narrow ranges on their positional stats, at least. That said, if you've played 300 hands with someone and you're still relying on their stats to make reads in anything but the thinnest situations, you could probably improve your note-taking.

i like pre
flop this texture you can go even bigger, but cbet size is fine as a default
turn fire good
river call if you check cos 30% or whatever
he can have TT or 87s here betting thin value? add a couple of bluffs and you're laughing.