[spoonitnow strategy] The Incorporation of Second-Level Thinking

We're going to add another tool to our toolbox this week: second-level thinking.

http://www.flopturnriver.com/blogs/t...thinking-17910

In short, second-level thinking is taking into consideration what your opponent thinks about you, your play and the situation. I've broken this down into what I think is a simple question that will give you the small chunk of actionable information that you need to bring second-level thinking into your exploitative thought process.

After reading through this article a couple of times, start trying to use second-level thinking by asking yourself THE QUESTION. Don't know what THE QUESTION is? Better read the article to find out. Post some hands here that we can take a look at to see how you're using second-level thinking and THE QUESTION to figure out easy adjustments to exploit the hell out of your opponents.

A while back I started what has become one of my most popular threads on FTR in terms of replies:

http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...id-184961.html

The whole premise of the thread was to make fun of the idea that there were no fish left at microstakes. This thread is full of spots where our opponents have done really dumb stuff like call down with no pair, no draw and queen-high. Those players are easy to tear up left and right. This week's strategy post is designed to put you on the right path to picking apart the regulars in the same exact way.

Salute.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (5 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com

Hero (MP) ($7.02)
Button ($5.07)
SB ($2.61)
BB ($2.14)
UTG ($5)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 3http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif, Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif
1 fold, Hero bets $0.20, 1 fold, SB calls $0.18, 1 fold

Flop: ($0.45) 10http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif, Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif, 4http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.30, SB calls $0.30

Turn: ($1.05) 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

River: ($1.05) 10http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif (2 players)
SB bets $0.65, Hero calls $0.65

Total pot: $2.35 | Rake: $0.10

Villain stats are 36/14/7 - 126 hands

I've been opening a tonne from the CO, so i estimated i could get 1 street of value with this weak top pair. I thought i should go for the value on the flop because i thought he would be calling widest at this point in the hand. I thought he would put more money in with a weak range on the flop because my CO opening range isn't going to be strong on the board that often and i'll be c-betting a fair amount in position an added benefit being i can take a pot control line on the turn and get closer to a showdown. When he bets the river i think he thinks my range is very weak since he'd assume i'd c-bet give-up with all my air hands so i thought he would be betting a weak range so i called.

Am i using second level thinking correctly?

Oh yeah another read on villain was he tried to bluff me a few hands prior to this, i'm not sure if he was intentionally bluffing or he thought he was value betting but he bet the river with a mid PP.

What stands out to me the most in this hand, in the context of this week's topic, is the river call. You're saying that he thinks your river range is weak, and since you're talking about what he's thinking, that's second-level thinking.

Again, I'm gonna respond with something that's irrelevant to OP, but turn is a very very standard vbet. I mean top pair against a fish on just about any wet board is a standard enough vbet, but seeing as how it's 4-handed and you're opening a tonne from all available non-blind positions, it's honestly really bad to check behind here.

Of course with some sort of read that he's super fit or fold on the flop or that he bets the river close to 100% of the time when the turn goes check-check all this talk on "standard" plays go out the window, but that's not what our reads indicate.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by surviva316

Again, I'm gonna respond with something that's irrelevant to OP, but turn is a very very standard vbet. I mean top pair against a fish on just about any wet board is a standard enough vbet, but seeing as how it's 4-handed and you're opening a tonne from all available non-blind positions, it's honestly really bad to check behind here.

Of course with some sort of read that he's super fit or fold on the flop or that he bets the river close to 100% of the time when the turn goes check-check all this talk on "standard" plays go out the window, but that's not what our reads indicate.

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He indicated on the turn that he wanted some sort of pot control. I don't think he realizes that being in position allows him more control on the river even if he bets the turn.

At the risk of derailing this thread (feel free to move the conversation to its own thread if you see fit):

Even out of position I would be looking for value on the turn with this hand or with AT for that matter.

I might be dense, but pot control doesn't make much sense to me. Unless the size of the pot changes the way villain plays the hand in an unfavorable way (he doesn't call enough to give us 50%+ equity, he bluffs the river more, etc), I don't see why we should be tailoring the size of the pot to our absolute hand strength. The concept of, "You have TPNK, thus the pot should get no bigger than {so-and-so}" doesn't seem terribly useful to me. If villain calls with many worse hands than TPNK, then the relative strength of our hand seems to justify a value bet.

If you push your value bets too thin, then you can make a small mistake in a big pot near the end of the hand that eliminates the EV you received from the big edges you had with smaller bets earlier in the hand. This is more of a concern if you're OOP than IP because when you're IP your chances of getting on the disadvantage are much lower, etc.

That makes sense (in general; I'll apply it to this particular situation as I go). So then pot control makes sense when there's a potential disadvantage: most likely, I would think, skill, position or a range that is harder to play against than ours is (their range is more disguised than ours or more balanced or more polarized; our range should never be weaker since we're talking about a value bet). So here we have a skill advantage and a much better disguised range (we have more nut hands and more bluffs and just as many hands in between), but if we were out of position, you say, then pot control would be a consideration.

So then we'd have to consider if the value is fat enough to justify putting ourselves in a position where we could potentially make a big mistake. I'd say that against this particular opponent, the disadvantage is effectively small, since it's a passive player who will rarely run a big bluff (hence, make us make a big mistake by folding the best hand on the river). Also, this player has a particular weakness to calling too much, and will likely chase draws without the right odds against our particular hand, etc. So it seems that checking TPNK out of position on this board to this player would be missing out on a big opportunity to exploit his weakness for fear of being disadvantaged in a way that the player will rarely leverage.

So now that I see how it's a consideration, I still think that the value (reward) is fat enough to expose ourselves to the relatively small risk of a mistake.

I know that this post includes zero math and doesn't even say what villain's range is; I'm just getting the high-level theory and applying it here in general terms.

You're not wrong; I was just giving a general idea of what to look for in terms of the betting.

For example, suppose in the same hand you get in a $5 bet with 70% equity, a $12 bet with 60% equity and a $35 bet with 45% equity. The average return for these bets with these equities are $2.00, $2.40 and -$3.50, respectively. With the last bet, you might not even know that you are getting the worst of it. However, with the much larger bet sizes in play, a small equity disadvantage gives a much more substantial EV disadvantage. Eliminating the potential for that last bet (a significant mistake) is more often the issue than blatantly value betting into a range that you lose against. You might just be calling on the river instead of doing the betting after all.

The point I meant to include is that--if I'm understanding the concept correctly--our absolute hand strength still isn't a primary concern. This would be a consideration for ANY hand that isn't good enough for us to comfortably felt; in fact, the hands that are exposed to the greatest risk are hands that are barely not good enough to felt comfortably (the fact that KJ is a more marginal fold implies that there are more hands that we would have beaten if called, implying that we're making a mistake more often). So the weaker the hand, the less concerned we are about making a mistake by not felting our hand.

What this is really all about--again, assuming I have this right--is weighing how fat the value is versus the disadvantages that expose us to risk of making a mistake in a big pot. So KJ gets fatter value than K3, but it also makes more mistakes in large pots. This isn't to say that K3 is a better hand to vbet with here than KJ. I just mean that the logic shouldn't be, "Our hand isn't that good, so we should pot control"; it's "Our hand isn't in our nut range, and there's a potential for a disadvantage in a big pot so we should consider pot control, the merits of which don't simply boil down to hand strength."

Quote:

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Originally Posted by spoonitnow

He indicated on the turn that he wanted some sort of pot control. I don't think he realizes that being in position allows him more control on the river even if he bets the turn.

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How do i get more control on the river?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by surviva316

The point I meant to include is that--if I'm understanding the concept correctly--our absolute hand strength still isn't a primary concern. This would be a consideration for ANY hand that isn't good enough for us to comfortably felt; in fact, the hands that are exposed to the greatest risk are hands that are barely not good enough to felt comfortably (the fact that KJ is a more marginal fold implies that there are more hands that we would have beaten if called, implying that we're making a mistake more often). So the weaker the hand, the less concerned we are about making a mistake by not felting our hand.

What this is really all about--again, assuming I have this right--is weighing how fat the value is versus the disadvantages that expose us to risk of making a mistake in a big pot. So KJ gets fatter value than K3, but it also makes more mistakes in large pots. This isn't to say that K3 is a better hand to vbet with here than KJ. I just mean that the logic shouldn't be, "Our hand isn't that good, so we should pot control"; it's "Our hand isn't in our nut range, and there's a potential for a disadvantage in a big pot so we should consider pot control, the merits of which don't simply boil down to hand strength."

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You're absolutely right about all of this.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by seven-deuce

How do i get more control on the river?

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I just mean that being in position gives you more control over the size of the pot since he'll be more likely to check to you with the given action. If he doesn't check to you, then it's an easy spot to play here since his river range isn't balanced.

Went through and found some spots that hopefully apply to the article.

Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players

BB: $9.85 (98.5 bb) 19/17 | 9.6% 3bet | 600 hands
UTG: $12.66 (126.6 bb)
MP: $4.75 (47.5 bb)
CO: $21.88 (218.8 bb)
BTN: $27.72 (277.2 bb)
Hero (SB): $10.20 (102 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T:diamond: A:diamond:
4 folds, Hero raises to $0.30, BB raises to $0.64, Hero raises to $2

I think villain's sizing here says it all. He thinks my opening range is weak in this spot (which it is), so I think he weakens his range in his position to try to exploit the weakness of my range.




Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players

SB: $10.42 (104.2 bb)
Hero (BB): $25.19 (251.9 bb)
MP: $10.37 (103.7 bb)
CO: $10.88 (108.8 bb)
BTN: $27.39 (273.9 bb) 24/16 | 25% BTN ATS | 100% fold to cb | 100 hands

Preflop: Hero is BB with J:heart: K:heart:
2 folds, BTN raises to $0.30, SB folds, Hero calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.65) Q:heart: 9:spade: 5:diamond: (2 players)
Hero bets $0.40

So I flatted pre because I likely dominate a decent portion of his range, though honestly and unrelatedly to the point here I think a 3bet is probably better in this spot. Anyways, I lead the flop. He's never seen me do this before. It's fairly dry, he likely thinks I'll have a strong leading range here?




Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 4 Players

CO: $10 (100 bb)
BTN: $5.37 (53.7 bb)
Hero (SB): $17.13 (171.3 bb)
BB: $4.29 (42.9 bb) 22/7 | 64% FTS | 67% fold to cb | 42 hands

Preflop: Hero is SB with 6:heart: 5:heart:
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.30, BB calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.60) T:spade: 7:club: A:diamond: (2 players)
Hero bets $0.40

So I cbet the flop because I think on this board villain will think I'm pretty strong. Because of this it's pretty hard for him to continue without an ace or better, which it's hard for him to have.

I'm glad to see you guys trying to apply these ideas in your games and thinking along the lines of what we've been talking about so far.

Should I keep replying to the hand histories with comments that are irrelevant to the OP? Haha. I feel like it's helpful yet distracting.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by surviva316

Should I keep replying to the hand histories with comments that are irrelevant to the OP? Haha. I feel like it's helpful yet distracting.

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Yeah go for it. I don't mind at all.

h1. yeah, his 3b stat alone makes this a nice 4b, and also I think your thinking bout what he's thinkin is right, I think...

h2. what's ur overall image, i would raise ur donk here a lot on this board. is this villain thinking that though.. seems passivy.. did he raise?

h3. in a bvb spot, don't ya think he's cont's w/ more.(b-ways)? even so i like ur cbet. 22/7 some of these guys play goofy. who knows what he's thinking.

Hand 1:

His sizing tells me that he doesn't want us to fold. He's probably doing it with a weaker range, but I wouldn't assume he's bluffing either. Also we can flat profitably anyway, so we might as well do that and save our 4b'ing light bullets for a different spot.

Hand 2:

Flatting is fine. Villain doesn't steal a ton, but we're still doing well enough against the top 25% of hands to flat in the BB. As played, I'd assume that villain is cbetting this flop a lot, and thus would check to him. This is literally the second best bluff we have in our range, and we should have a fair amount of value c/r's here, so I would definitely be checking with the intention of raising.

Hand 3:

I don't think this is great incorporation of the lesson in OP (hey look at me, keeping it on topic). I think villain is going to put us on a weak range, and will be perfectly willing to call with any piece of it, and I think his range is mostly draws and pairs on this flop. We might get like K5s to fold or some shit, but other than that . . . . For this reason, this is a decent board to barrel if we had any outs or any backdoor anything.

villain is nittiesh, like 15/12, my pt4 won't run right now , but anyway i put this hand in .

i think villain thinks im giving up when i don't lead, so i'm folding a lot when i check here, which makes his cbet range weak right?




Cake Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) - Cake-Poker Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com

SB ($14.96)
BB ($6.50)
Hero (UTG) ($10.30)
MP ($18.37)
CO ($10.62)
Button ($12.93)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 3http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif, 3http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif
Hero bets $0.30, MP calls $0.30, 4 folds

Flop: ($0.75) 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif, 4http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif, 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $0.50, Hero raises to $1.80,

First a note on terminology: Your opponent can't make a cbet here. It's just a bet. It's an important difference.

Second, if you believe your opponent bet/fold very often whenever you check, then you should check/raise with a weak range. This goes hand-in-hand with continuation betting with a strong range.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by spoonitnow

First a note on terminology: Your opponent can't make a cbet here. It's just a bet. It's an important difference.

Second, if you believe your opponent bet/fold very often whenever you check, then you should check/raise with a weak range. This goes hand-in-hand with continuation betting with a strong range.

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ah, thanks spoon, on the second note, this is what i was getting at hence the c/r , right? or am i missing something?

Is fine. You can also c/c and lead turn if you want to mix up your lines.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by jackvance

Is fine. You can also c/c and lead turn if you want to mix up your lines.

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This type of shit is actually what's coming in this week's article.

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